BSC Comparison

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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by 4KornerKat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:25 am

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
I think that's a good point, but digging a little deeper I think it's even more related to QB play. Last year they were trying to win with a guy (Vidlak) that couldn't stop turning the ball over, once they went to McDowell they got rolling. Seems like similar with Ah Yat vs. Fife this year. The previous years collapses were fairly strongly tied to injuries to QB1. I think there is reason to assume they will continue to roll with Fife, but if/when he gets hurt they will be in trouble.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by cats2506 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am

4KornerKat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:25 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
I think that's a good point, but digging a little deeper I think it's even more related to QB play. Last year they were trying to win with a guy (Vidlak) that couldn't stop turning the ball over, once they went to McDowell they got rolling. Seems like similar with Ah Yat vs. Fife this year. The previous years collapses were fairly strongly tied to injuries to QB1. I think there is reason to assume they will continue to roll with Fife, but if/when he gets hurt they will be in trouble.
If something happens to either Fife or Gillman they are in trouble. Ostmo is a good back but everything revolves around those two players. Bergen is good but not critical to their success, teams have done a good job of limiting his return game this year.

For MSU I hope that they both are heathy at Cat/gris


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by BelligerentBobcat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am

Are we going to ignore that UC Davis has arguably played a worse schedule than us?

They’re a paper tiger. The BSC kinda sucks this year.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Prodigal Cat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am

BelligerentBobcat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am
Are we going to ignore that UC Davis has arguably played a worse schedule than us?

They’re a paper tiger. The BSC kinda sucks this year.
I posted that I think there is a decent chance Davis loses this weekend. And yes, the BSC is down this year. Anyone argues otherwise is not paying attention. Just go look at the non conference. Last year the conference got 3 seeds and I think there is a realistic forecast that it only gets 1.


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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by cats2506 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am

BelligerentBobcat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am
Are we going to ignore that UC Davis has arguably played a worse schedule than us?

They’re a paper tiger. The BSC kinda sucks this year.
Not only that but their offense is heavily dependent on one player.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by rivercat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:47 am

CodyCat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:14 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
In HauckTuah's first stink with the gris, slow/rough starts were the norm as they peaked in November and began to roll. So, its not just based on last year. Its a tendency of Tuah.
College football has changed so much that what happened 15 years ago is really no evidence of what is currently likely to occur. I too believe the "gris get better" as the season progresses is based on last year. It is possible they get better this year, but their overall lack of talent on the defense will limit their success.


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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by cats2506 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:51 am

Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am
BelligerentBobcat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am
Are we going to ignore that UC Davis has arguably played a worse schedule than us?

They’re a paper tiger. The BSC kinda sucks this year.
I posted that I think there is a decent chance Davis loses this weekend. And yes, the BSC is down this year. Anyone argues otherwise is not paying attention. Just go look at the non conference. Last year the conference got 3 seeds and I think there is a realistic forecast that it only gets 1.
16 seeds this year, so BSC will get more than one for sure, probably at least 3. 1 or 2 in the top 8.
I don't think the BSC is down as much as you think, MSU has elevated this year, so it is just a matter of perspective. If we had last years team playing the way we did last year we would be in the mix with 4-5 of those teams. If we had last years team with this years schedule we would probably only have on loss (UNM)


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Prodigal Cat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:59 am

cats2506 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:51 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:45 am
BelligerentBobcat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:37 am
Are we going to ignore that UC Davis has arguably played a worse schedule than us?

They’re a paper tiger. The BSC kinda sucks this year.
I posted that I think there is a decent chance Davis loses this weekend. And yes, the BSC is down this year. Anyone argues otherwise is not paying attention. Just go look at the non conference. Last year the conference got 3 seeds and I think there is a realistic forecast that it only gets 1.
16 seeds this year, so BSC will get more than one for sure, probably at least 3. 1 or 2 in the top 8.
I don't think the BSC is down as much as you think, MSU has elevated this year, so it is just a matter of perspective. If we had last years team playing the way we did last year we would be in the mix with 4-5 of those teams. If we had last years team with this years schedule we would probably only have on loss (UNM)
Yeah I should have said seed and a bye.
I guess im just going by the fact that last year there were 3 teams that were in the top 6 or so. Idaho, um, MSU. I know Davis is 6 but I don't think they are real so really its the Cats and then you have to get to 7 -10ish before i think you could start thinking about another BSC team this year. The MVFC has 3-4 teams ahead of the 2nd best BSC IMO and throw in Mercer, Nova as well.


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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by WalkOn79 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:14 am

Catprint wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:08 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2024 3:14 pm
technoCat wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2024 11:45 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Tue Oct 15, 2024 10:36 am
How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado
Are you saying that UC Davis is the #5 team or are all teams in the second tier functionally the same?
I think the teams in the 2nd Tier are all really close to each other, but yeah I would rank them last of that group. I don't think they're nearly as good as their record. If NAU and ID have their quarterbacks, I think they're better. Now if you're talking about the Vandals with Wagner or the Lumberjacks with London, then yeah they should be ranked higher.
I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'
That's how I'm seeing it as well. I think only Davis and the Bobcats get a bye.


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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Lord Vigo » Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:34 am

TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I don't think they have the horses on defense to get close to their peaks of the last couple seasons, but I do think they can trend back towards average, which should be enough to rattle off some conference wins given their offensive skill.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Lord Vigo » Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:45 am

Catprint wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:08 am
I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'
It sounds like we are assessing different things.

I agree with you that the Aggies have a strong path to the playoffs (no shot they compete with MSU for the conference-- they're going to get trounced in Davis). But I'm ranking teams based on how good I actually think they are.

When NAU and ID have their starting QB's, I believe they're better football teams. I think UM is probably comparable to UCD right now and as they round into form, they will certainly be better. Consider that Davis only managed to beat Idaho by 2 points at home despite the Vandals missing their starting QB.

In my opinion, Miles Hastings is the most overrated player in the Big Sky Conference. He's a statue with a weak arm whose playing style makes it hard for UCD to build a good running game and he creates a lot of negative plays.

If I was a betting man, I would put money on Davis to lose to both Montana schools and maybe drop one more along the way. Their ceiling in my view is an overrated 9-3.
Last edited by Lord Vigo on Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:01 am, edited 1 time in total.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Lord Vigo » Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:46 am

Catprint wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 11:49 pm
While I agree the Gris will get stronger as the season moves on, i think it is highly unlikely they will climb back into the Top 10, much less the Top 5. The Top 5 is almost certainly a lock between SDSU, NDSU, MSU, Nova and Mercer (based on schedules). USD, Davis, UCA, SEMO and UIW are all likely to be in the Top 10. All of these teams will have 1 or at most 2 losses come later November. Maybe the Gris can get in around 9 or 10 but Top 5 is simply out of reach barring a total collapse by 5 or 6 teams.
Maybe top 5 is out of reach, but they're #11 right now so I can't imagine that 9 or 10 is their ceiling.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Lord Vigo » Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:48 am

tetoncat wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 10:23 pm
I think they will be near top of conference as well as schedule is favorable. But they are complete opposite of last year. 2023 offense struggled early and D and ST won games for them. Insert McDowell and offense went on a roll, but I thought struggled again in playoffs. This year offense is good but gottenore inconsistent lately. Defense is susceptible to big plays as they still want to pressure and play man and teams make them pay. Couple games with backup or you QBs or they would have more losses
I don't believe a Bobby Hauck led team will remain abysmal on defense all year. They aren't going to be an elite defense-- they don't have the personnel-- but he will get them back to competence.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by cats2506 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:28 am

Lord Vigo wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:45 am
Catprint wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:08 am
I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'
It sounds like we are assessing different things.

I agree with you that the Aggies have a strong path to the playoffs (no shot they compete with MSU for the conference-- they're going to get trounced in Davis). But I'm ranking teams based on how good I actually think they are.

When NAU and ID have their starting QB's, I believe they're better football teams. I think UM is probably comparable to UCD right now and as they round into form, they will certainly be better. Consider that Davis only managed to beat Idaho by 2 points at home despite the Vandals missing their starting QB.

In my opinion, Miles Hastings is the most overrated player in the Big Sky Conference. He's a statue with a weak arm whose playing style makes it hard for UCD to build a good running game and he creates a lot of negative plays.

If I was a betting man, I would put money on Davis to lose to both Montana schools and maybe drop one more along the way. Their ceiling in my view is an overrated 9-3.
UCD has not looked good away from home, they could lose a shootout in Cheney this weekend. :shock:


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by catatac » Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:38 pm

4KornerKat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:25 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
I think that's a good point, but digging a little deeper I think it's even more related to QB play. Last year they were trying to win with a guy (Vidlak) that couldn't stop turning the ball over, once they went to McDowell they got rolling. Seems like similar with Ah Yat vs. Fife this year. The previous years collapses were fairly strongly tied to injuries to QB1. I think there is reason to assume they will continue to roll with Fife, but if/when he gets hurt they will be in trouble.
Not sure if you meant "continue to roll" as in, they're rolling anything? lol. They're just not a very good football team right now. They might improve, we'll see. Lost to UND, Lost to Weber at home, which is insane considering that stadium get them a 14 point advantage. Then won some squeakers against marginal teams, including this last weekend when NAU was down their 3rd string QB from what I read. Not impressed yet.


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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Lord Vigo » Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:03 pm

cats2506 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:28 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:45 am
Catprint wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:08 am
I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'
It sounds like we are assessing different things.

I agree with you that the Aggies have a strong path to the playoffs (no shot they compete with MSU for the conference-- they're going to get trounced in Davis). But I'm ranking teams based on how good I actually think they are.

When NAU and ID have their starting QB's, I believe they're better football teams. I think UM is probably comparable to UCD right now and as they round into form, they will certainly be better. Consider that Davis only managed to beat Idaho by 2 points at home despite the Vandals missing their starting QB.

In my opinion, Miles Hastings is the most overrated player in the Big Sky Conference. He's a statue with a weak arm whose playing style makes it hard for UCD to build a good running game and he creates a lot of negative plays.

If I was a betting man, I would put money on Davis to lose to both Montana schools and maybe drop one more along the way. Their ceiling in my view is an overrated 9-3.
UCD has not looked good away from home, they could lose a shootout in Cheney this weekend. :shock:
Their wins over UT, ID, and PSU are by a combined 6 points.



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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by cats2506 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 3:49 pm

Lord Vigo wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 1:03 pm
cats2506 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 11:28 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 10:45 am
Catprint wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:08 am
I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'
It sounds like we are assessing different things.

I agree with you that the Aggies have a strong path to the playoffs (no shot they compete with MSU for the conference-- they're going to get trounced in Davis). But I'm ranking teams based on how good I actually think they are.

When NAU and ID have their starting QB's, I believe they're better football teams. I think UM is probably comparable to UCD right now and as they round into form, they will certainly be better. Consider that Davis only managed to beat Idaho by 2 points at home despite the Vandals missing their starting QB.

In my opinion, Miles Hastings is the most overrated player in the Big Sky Conference. He's a statue with a weak arm whose playing style makes it hard for UCD to build a good running game and he creates a lot of negative plays.

If I was a betting man, I would put money on Davis to lose to both Montana schools and maybe drop one more along the way. Their ceiling in my view is an overrated 9-3.
UCD has not looked good away from home, they could lose a shootout in Cheney this weekend. :shock:
Their wins over UT, ID, and PSU are by a combined 6 points.
The PSU win took some creative reffing too.


PlayerRep wrote:The point is not the record of the teams UM beat, it's the quality and record of the teams UM almost beat.

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Helcat72
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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by Helcat72 » Thu Oct 17, 2024 4:04 pm

I think all of the FCS is down this year except the elite teams in the rankings from 1 through about 6. Too many good players hit the portal trying to hit payday!


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4KornerKat
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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by 4KornerKat » Thu Oct 17, 2024 6:17 pm

catatac wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:38 pm
4KornerKat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:25 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
I think that's a good point, but digging a little deeper I think it's even more related to QB play. Last year they were trying to win with a guy (Vidlak) that couldn't stop turning the ball over, once they went to McDowell they got rolling. Seems like similar with Ah Yat vs. Fife this year. The previous years collapses were fairly strongly tied to injuries to QB1. I think there is reason to assume they will continue to roll with Fife, but if/when he gets hurt they will be in trouble.
Not sure if you meant "continue to roll" as in, they're rolling anything? lol. They're just not a very good football team right now. They might improve, we'll see. Lost to UND, Lost to Weber at home, which is insane considering that stadium get them a 14 point advantage. Then won some squeakers against marginal teams, including this last weekend when NAU was down their 3rd string QB from what I read. Not impressed yet.
Well I think they're rolling, just maybe not very smooth or fast. Offensive output has been significantly better since they switched from Ah Yat, seems like maybe they are coming around on defense, so who knows where the season takes them.

Agree that they aren't that impressive, point I was trying to make is that they seem to take a bit to find the right fit at QB the last few seasons, and then start to put things together from there.



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The Butcher
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Re: BSC Comparison

Post by The Butcher » Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:11 pm

4KornerKat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 6:17 pm
catatac wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 12:38 pm
4KornerKat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 9:25 am
Prodigal Cat wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 8:50 am
TomCat88 wrote:
Thu Oct 17, 2024 7:39 am
Lord Vigo wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 4:14 pm
84CatGrad wrote:
Wed Oct 16, 2024 3:43 pm
If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.
The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.
Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.
I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.
I think that's a good point, but digging a little deeper I think it's even more related to QB play. Last year they were trying to win with a guy (Vidlak) that couldn't stop turning the ball over, once they went to McDowell they got rolling. Seems like similar with Ah Yat vs. Fife this year. The previous years collapses were fairly strongly tied to injuries to QB1. I think there is reason to assume they will continue to roll with Fife, but if/when he gets hurt they will be in trouble.
Not sure if you meant "continue to roll" as in, they're rolling anything? lol. They're just not a very good football team right now. They might improve, we'll see. Lost to UND, Lost to Weber at home, which is insane considering that stadium get them a 14 point advantage. Then won some squeakers against marginal teams, including this last weekend when NAU was down their 3rd string QB from what I read. Not impressed yet.
Well I think they're rolling, just maybe not very smooth or fast. Offensive output has been significantly better since they switched from Ah Yat, seems like maybe they are coming around on defense, so who knows where the season takes them.

Agree that they aren't that impressive, point I was trying to make is that they seem to take a bit to find the right fit at QB the last few seasons, and then start to put things together from there.
Griz looked terrible and shockingly won. Not sure that is the definition of “rolling.”



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