BSC Comparison

[Lord Vigo]

MSU has owned both sides of the LOS in every game this year. Idaho’s DL has been ballyhooed and they were mastered by MSU.

Despite the overall good season stats, Idaho has been vulnerable to the ground game at times this season. What’s made them exceptional has been their pass rush. Tough for that to matter when you are facing a team that’s running 75% of the time.

idk, tommy seemed to be able to pass at will.

Go back and look at the play-by-play. The Cats opening drives were almost entirely running plays. They opened up the passing game later when the run was thoroughly established.

[Lord Vigo]

I love that stat about the starting defense.

A team can't control playing a weak schedule, but they can control dominating it. The Cats have.

[TomCat88]

MSU has owned both sides of the LOS in every game this year. Idaho’s DL has been ballyhooed and they were mastered by MSU.

Despite the overall good season stats, Idaho has been vulnerable to the ground game at times this season. What’s made them exceptional has been their pass rush. Tough for that to matter when you are facing a team that’s running 75% of the time.

idk, tommy seemed to be able to pass at will.

Go back and look at the play-by-play. The Cats opening drives were almost entirely running plays. They opened up the passing game later when the run was thoroughly established.

While there’s no doubt that the run sets up the pass, there’s also no doubt that Mellott’s entire game as a passer is sound. His play fakes are good and he has dropped some good passes over defenders. The one to Rohan Jones was deft and his throw to Dowler hit him in stride. He had an another TD pass to Dowler that was better than the one to Jones in the Mercyhurst? game. The TD pass to Adam Jones vs Mercyhurst was a really well executed and a good throw. Many others. He hasn’t been off on many throws and the ones that are have mostly been thrown away.

His passer rating going into Idaho was 182.2 and like everything else MSU has done it has been somewhat scoffed at due to the weak schedule. Yet he improved it to 182.5.

[Lord Vigo]

While there’s no doubt that the run sets up the pass, there’s also no doubt that Mellott’s entire game as a passer is sound. His play fakes are good and he has dropped some good passes over defenders. The one to Rohan Jones was deft and his throw to Dowler hit him in stride. He had an another TD pass to Dowler that was better than the one to Jones in the Mercyhurst? game. The TD pass to Adam Jones vs Mercyhurst was a really well executed and a good throw. Many others. He hasn’t been off on many throws and the ones that are have mostly been thrown away.

There's no doubt. I've created a whole thread to note Mellott's progress.

I wasn't trying to belittle his passing in the Idaho game. I'm more just pointing out that it was a smart gameplan to blunt Idaho's biggest strength (their pass rush) with a run-heavy approach to start things off.

Here's the breakdown of the first five drives (may be off by one or two plays either direction, but this illustrates the point):

25 rush attempts
8 pass attempts (at least one pass attempt was a screen)

They started passing more to close the half when they had 52 seconds to try and score, but on the whole and especially to open the game they didn't give the edge rushers of the Vandals any opportunities to wreck the game.

[snarf]

MSU has owned both sides of the LOS in every game this year. Idaho’s DL has been ballyhooed and they were mastered by MSU.

Despite the overall good season stats, Idaho has been vulnerable to the ground game at times this season. What’s made them exceptional has been their pass rush. Tough for that to matter when you are facing a team that’s running 75% of the time.

idk, tommy seemed to be able to pass at will.

Go back and look at the play-by-play. The Cats opening drives were almost entirely running plays. They opened up the passing game later when the run was thoroughly established.

While there’s no doubt that the run sets up the pass, there’s also no doubt that Mellott’s entire game as a passer is sound. His play fakes are good and he has dropped some good passes over defenders. The one to Rohan Jones was deft and his throw to Dowler hit him in stride. He had an another TD pass to Dowler that was better than the one to Jones in the Mercyhurst? game. The TD pass to Adam Jones vs Mercyhurst was a really well executed and a good throw. Many others. He hasn’t been off on many throws and the ones that are have mostly been thrown away.

His passer rating going into Idaho was 182.2 and like everything else MSU has done it has been somewhat scoffed at due to the weak schedule. Yet he improved it to 182.5.

Another piece on his passing from the Idaho game that a lot of people are not talking about is how windy it was. Those weren’t passes that were thrown on a calm day.

[BelligerentBobcat]

MSU has owned both sides of the LOS in every game this year. Idaho’s DL has been ballyhooed and they were mastered by MSU.

Despite the overall good season stats, Idaho has been vulnerable to the ground game at times this season. What’s made them exceptional has been their pass rush. Tough for that to matter when you are facing a team that’s running 75% of the time.

idk, tommy seemed to be able to pass at will.

It’s a lot easier to pass when the run game is working like it does and pass rushers can’t pin their ears back and go.

[TomCat88]

While there’s no doubt that the run sets up the pass, there’s also no doubt that Mellott’s entire game as a passer is sound. His play fakes are good and he has dropped some good passes over defenders. The one to Rohan Jones was deft and his throw to Dowler hit him in stride. He had an another TD pass to Dowler that was better than the one to Jones in the Mercyhurst? game. The TD pass to Adam Jones vs Mercyhurst was a really well executed and a good throw. Many others. He hasn’t been off on many throws and the ones that are have mostly been thrown away.

There's no doubt. I've created a whole thread to note Mellott's progress.

I wasn't trying to belittle his passing in the Idaho game. I'm more just pointing out that it was a smart gameplan to blunt Idaho's biggest strength (their pass rush) with a run-heavy approach to start things off.

Here's the breakdown of the first five drives (may be off by one or two plays either direction, but this illustrates the point):

25 rush attempts
8 pass attempts (at least one pass attempt was a screen)

They started passing more to close the half when they had 52 seconds to try and score, but on the whole and especially to open the game they didn't give the edge rushers of the Vandals any opportunities to wreck the game.

Yeah, I didn’t think you were trying to belittle his passing and I don’t think I’ve seen your thread about Mellott.

My point is that MSU has been doing its run thing for years and now it’s bearing the fruit of a good pass game due to Mellott’s improvement. Just making extra sure that people get that not knowing for sure that they do.

Just out of curiosity I looked up MSU passer efficiency since becoming good ground team:
2024 - 176.9
2023 - 159.2
2022 - 149.9
2021 - 149.0*
2019 - 129.8
2018 - 114.0
2017 - 122.7
2016 - 103.6

*Mellott was 160.9 in the 2021 playoffs.
By season:
2022 - 140.8
2023 - 163.6
2024 - 182.5

[coloradocat]

While there’s no doubt that the run sets up the pass, there’s also no doubt that Mellott’s entire game as a passer is sound. His play fakes are good and he has dropped some good passes over defenders. The one to Rohan Jones was deft and his throw to Dowler hit him in stride. He had an another TD pass to Dowler that was better than the one to Jones in the Mercyhurst? game. The TD pass to Adam Jones vs Mercyhurst was a really well executed and a good throw. Many others. He hasn’t been off on many throws and the ones that are have mostly been thrown away.

There's no doubt. I've created a whole thread to note Mellott's progress.

I wasn't trying to belittle his passing in the Idaho game. I'm more just pointing out that it was a smart gameplan to blunt Idaho's biggest strength (their pass rush) with a run-heavy approach to start things off.

Here's the breakdown of the first five drives (may be off by one or two plays either direction, but this illustrates the point):

25 rush attempts
8 pass attempts (at least one pass attempt was a screen)

They started passing more to close the half when they had 52 seconds to try and score, but on the whole and especially to open the game they didn't give the edge rushers of the Vandals any opportunities to wreck the game.

Yeah, I didn’t think you were trying to belittle his passing and I don’t think I’ve seen your thread about Mellott.

My point is that MSU has been doing its run thing for years and now it’s bearing the fruit of a good pass game due to Mellott’s improvement. Just making extra sure that people get that not knowing for sure that they do.

Just out of curiosity I looked up MSU passer efficiency since becoming good ground team:
2024 - 176.9
2023 - 159.2
2022 - 149.9
2021 - 149.0*
2019 - 129.8
2018 - 114.0
2017 - 122.7
2016 - 103.6

*Mellott was 160.9 in the 2021 playoffs.
By season:
2022 - 140.8
2023 - 163.6
2024 - 182.5

To be fair to the pre-Tommy years, those were mostly led by non-QBs and a guy who played himself out of his job. Tommy has definitely been a huge step up though and will do down as one of the all time greats.

[84CatGrad]

How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

[Catsrgrood]

How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

That’s my thought so far too. I’m not getting ahead of myself that the griz will be total sh*t come Cat/griz.

If they played right now? I take the Cats by 20+. And maybe that still how it plays out.

But if nothing else, last year was definitely an eye opener to see just how bad they were 1/3 of the way through the season only to see them roll the Cats and make it all the way to Frisco. There was a lot of luck in that run, but they made it nonetheless.

I don’t think they have near the horses this year on D to make those same adjustments, but we’ll see what the next month brings before I get too cocky and think the Cats will win by 50.

[Lord Vigo]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

[tetoncat]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

I think they will be near top of conference as well as schedule is favorable. But they are complete opposite of last year. 2023 offense struggled early and D and ST won games for them. Insert McDowell and offense went on a roll, but I thought struggled again in playoffs. This year offense is good but gottenore inconsistent lately. Defense is susceptible to big plays as they still want to pressure and play man and teams make them pay. Couple games with backup or you QBs or they would have more losses

[Catprint]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

While I agree the Gris will get stronger as the season moves on, i think it is highly unlikely they will climb back into the Top 10, much less the Top 5. The Top 5 is almost certainly a lock between SDSU, NDSU, MSU, Nova and Mercer (based on schedules). USD, Davis, UCA, SEMO and UIW are all likely to be in the Top 10. All of these teams will have 1 or at most 2 losses come later November. Maybe the Gris can get in around 9 or 10 but Top 5 is simply out of reach barring a total collapse by 5 or 6 teams.

[Catprint]

How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado

Are you saying that UC Davis is the #5 team or are all teams in the second tier functionally the same?

I think the teams in the 2nd Tier are all really close to each other, but yeah I would rank them last of that group. I don't think they're nearly as good as their record. If NAU and ID have their quarterbacks, I think they're better. Now if you're talking about the Vandals with Wagner or the Lumberjacks with London, then yeah they should be ranked higher.

I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'

[TomCat88]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.

[St George]

MSU has owned both sides of the LOS in every game this year. Idaho’s DL has been ballyhooed and they were mastered by MSU.

Despite the overall good season stats, Idaho has been vulnerable to the ground game at times this season. What’s made them exceptional has been their pass rush. Tough for that to matter when you are facing a team that’s running 75% of the time.

idk, tommy seemed to be able to pass at will.

Who is this Will you speak of? Is he on the roster? I thought Will was on First.

[Prodigal Cat]

How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado

Are you saying that UC Davis is the #5 team or are all teams in the second tier functionally the same?

I think the teams in the 2nd Tier are all really close to each other, but yeah I would rank them last of that group. I don't think they're nearly as good as their record. If NAU and ID have their quarterbacks, I think they're better. Now if you're talking about the Vandals with Wagner or the Lumberjacks with London, then yeah they should be ranked higher.

I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'

Davis is lucky to be 6-1. They have flirted with losing to some not very good teams for over a month now. Win by 3 over SUU, by 2 at home against Idaho, by 1 over PSU, they settled for FG's against Utah tech a bunch. I know it would be best for the Cats if Davis wins out until they play the week before the brawl but I think they will drop a couple as the competition gets better. It would not shock me if EWU beats Davis this weekend. It depends on if Larison gets it going or not.

[BleedingBLue]

How do we feel about this? Note-- I can't find anything about injury status for Ty Pennington (NAU) and I believe Jack Layne will be back in the next couple of weeks.

Tier One:

1. Montana State

Tier Two:

2. Idaho (w/ Layne)
3. Northern Arizona (w/ Pennington)
4. Montana
5. U.C. Davis

Tier Three:

6. Weber State
7. Eastern Washington
8. Idaho State
9. Sac State
10. Portland State

Tier Four:

11. Cal Poly
12. Northern Colorado

Are you saying that UC Davis is the #5 team or are all teams in the second tier functionally the same?

I think the teams in the 2nd Tier are all really close to each other, but yeah I would rank them last of that group. I don't think they're nearly as good as their record. If NAU and ID have their quarterbacks, I think they're better. Now if you're talking about the Vandals with Wagner or the Lumberjacks with London, then yeah they should be ranked higher.

I would disagree about UC Davis being #5 and bottom of Tier 2. In my aggregate national stats (posted on Path to the Playoffs), UC Davis is better than both the Gris and Idaho on defense and clearly better than NAU and Idaho on Offense. I don't think the return of Jack Layne makes much difference for Idaho except maybe if they can make a deep run in the playoffs. It is a long shot for Idaho to get even a first round bye at this point.

The bigger point is Davis's schedule. Sac looks like a win as Sac State is sad. EWU and UNC will be wins. That leaves only MSU and UM as tough games. If Davis can split those games, they will likely tie for Big Sky title with MSU if the split involves winning the home game. Miles Hastings is a baller and if their defense can hold up, I see Davis going 4-1 over their last 5 games and ending up 10-2. They are the only other Big Sky team likely to get a Top 8 seed in my opinion (barring the complete collapse of 5 or 6 teams from other conferences ranked in the top 10 right now).
'

Davis is lucky to be 6-1. They have flirted with losing to some not very good teams for over a month now. Win by 3 over SUU, by 2 at home against Idaho, by 1 over PSU, they settled for FG's against Utah tech a bunch. I know it would be best for the Cats if Davis wins out until they play the week before the brawl but I think they will drop a couple as the competition gets better. It would not shock me if EWU beats Davis this weekend. It depends on if Larison gets it going or not.

I don't think EWU is good enough on defense to stop Larison. UCD is good enough defensively to slow Visperas. Davis should win that game.

[Prodigal Cat]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.

I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.

[CodyCat]

If the frizz are in Tier 2, they barely are. They lost at home to a team that lost to Tier 4 UNC and they barely beat Tier 3 EWU. That being said I remember last year licking my chops after they lost to NAU and next thing you know they kicked our butts and went to the natty.

The Griz tend to get stronger/sharper as the season rolls along under Hauck. Even with all their struggles, they're 3rd in overall record, 3rd in conference record, and 2nd in scoring differential. I'm expect them to get rolling here in the second half of the season and climb back up into the top ~5 of the FCS before coming to Bozeman and getting waxed.

Yes, it’ll be interesting to see how the Griz evolve. I’m told they scaled back/simplified their defense last week and that seemed to help but NAU was without its starting quarterback. If they can, by basically moving back to 101, add more elements back to their defense they could gradually get back to their former selves. I don’t think they can stick with the 101 version and beat Davis or MSU.

I think this narrative that the Griz get better as the season goes is almost totally based on last year. In '22 they were getting first place votes before dropping 3 straight, getting run out of the stadium by the Cats and nearly lost at home to an average SEMO team in the playoffs. '21 they started off beating Washington and beat the Cat's but it was one and done in the playoffs as well. '19 lose to the Cats and lose in the playoffs vs a Weber team they embarrassed just a month earlier. I get why people are expecting them to rise from the ashes this season but in reality last year is really the only time they have definitively got it rolling to end the year under Hauck 2.0. It was the exception, not the rule.

In HauckTuah's first stink with the gris, slow/rough starts were the norm as they peaked in November and began to roll. So, its not just based on last year. Its a tendency of Tuah.