Realistic expectations for this year

[damnyoutuesday]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

I would agree. SDSU lost a lot of talent and backfilling that much in one offseason seems unlikely.

100% agree. They very well may be really good, but they’re as big of an unknown as anyone right now. Normally a head coaching change at a strong program like that is tough, but not insurmountable. But a second coaching change in 2 years, with all of the staff that left also, AND losing 20+ players to graduation and portal is a mighty big thing to overcome, especially early.

SDSU is going to be a middle of the pack MVFC team this year. You don’t lose that much talent to the portal and maintain status as a top 10 team. Cats will win big in Bozeman in front of 22,000 fans.

Who’s going to finish ahead of them?

They're far from the middle of the pack imo. I think they'll be 3rd behind the evil empire and the yotes.

I should have added a little more explanation. I see 2 to 3 teams at the top of the MVFC - NDSU, USD and Illinois State. Then the next group has SDSU, UND, Youngstown State and UNI. They will beat each other up and end up with similar records. The rest are bottom dwellers. I think there are big gaps between the groups, and SDSU belongs in the second tier. You don’t lose 21 guys to FBS and expect to maintain the same level of success. Just not going to happen.

If it was 7-8 years ago, I’d agree. I just think sdsu is so far ahead of everyone except NDSU that they can take that hit and still beat those teams. They beat every league opponent by 31 points or more except USD and NDSU.

I agree that SDSU will be in the second tier but will probably end up at the top of that group. New coaching staff, lot of new players and transfers SDSU is not the machine that NDSU is.
I wont be surprised if SDSU struggles against SAC.

I think SDSU is going to murder Sac St. Even if SDSU starts a little down because of the new coach and transfer players, Sac has that problem even worse and they're historically bum ass Sacramento State lol

[catatac]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

I would agree. SDSU lost a lot of talent and backfilling that much in one offseason seems unlikely.

100% agree. They very well may be really good, but they’re as big of an unknown as anyone right now. Normally a head coaching change at a strong program like that is tough, but not insurmountable. But a second coaching change in 2 years, with all of the staff that left also, AND losing 20+ players to graduation and portal is a mighty big thing to overcome, especially early.

SDSU is going to be a middle of the pack MVFC team this year. You don’t lose that much talent to the portal and maintain status as a top 10 team. Cats will win big in Bozeman in front of 22,000 fans.

Who’s going to finish ahead of them?

They're far from the middle of the pack imo. I think they'll be 3rd behind the evil empire and the yotes.

I should have added a little more explanation. I see 2 to 3 teams at the top of the MVFC - NDSU, USD and Illinois State. Then the next group has SDSU, UND, Youngstown State and UNI. They will beat each other up and end up with similar records. The rest are bottom dwellers. I think there are big gaps between the groups, and SDSU belongs in the second tier. You don’t lose 21 guys to FBS and expect to maintain the same level of success. Just not going to happen.

If it was 7-8 years ago, I’d agree. I just think sdsu is so far ahead of everyone except NDSU that they can take that hit and still beat those teams. They beat every league opponent by 31 points or more except USD and NDSU.

Agree. Not too long ago they lost 34 players or something like that and came back the following year and crushed it.

[catatac]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

We'll be favored and should win but the only reason there will be any question marks is because we open week 1 on the road against a top 5 FBS team while SDSU opens week 1 at home against a borderline top 5 BSC team that is full of transfers and a new coaching staff. We may be beat up and without a good idea of what we have at QB while they should win and get to feel out their new staff and roster.

Iron sharpens iron and I'm not expecting a lot out of Suck St. I think getting a strong challenge is more beneficial that a walkthrough game, provided of course there are no injuries. Playing FBS teams, especially highly ranked ones, injuries are definitely a big risk.

Often times injuries are nothing other than bad luck. Although I'd agree if a team that isn't in top physical condition, with top notch training in good fundamentals of how to tackle and take hits, etc... this might be an issue. For a team like the Cats however, I don't think the risk of injury goes up playing an Oregon versus a Northern Colorado. In fact I think one of our coaches spoke to this a few years ago and said injuries are more likely playing a crappy team. Just my $.02.

[BelligerentBobcat]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

[TomCat88]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

And how average the 6-10/15 teams are.

[TomCat88]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

We'll be favored and should win but the only reason there will be any question marks is because we open week 1 on the road against a top 5 FBS team while SDSU opens week 1 at home against a borderline top 5 BSC team that is full of transfers and a new coaching staff. We may be beat up and without a good idea of what we have at QB while they should win and get to feel out their new staff and roster.

Iron sharpens iron and I'm not expecting a lot out of Suck St. I think getting a strong challenge is more beneficial that a walkthrough game, provided of course there are no injuries. Playing FBS teams, especially highly ranked ones, injuries are definitely a big risk.

Often times injuries are nothing other than bad luck. Although I'd agree if a team that isn't in top physical condition, with top notch training in good fundamentals of how to tackle and take hits, etc... this might be an issue. For a team like the Cats however, I don't think the risk of injury goes up playing an Oregon versus a Northern Colorado. In fact I think one of our coaches spoke to this a few years ago and said injuries are more likely playing a crappy team. Just my $.02.

If a team is derailed due to injuries, then it didn't have good depth. If you don't have good depth, you aren't likely to have a good season/team. MSU lost or was without Julius Davis, Humphrey, Perkins, Schmidt, Caden Dowler, Danny U, Polidore, Brody Grebe, Bryce Grebe, Black, JT Reed, Mastel, and probably a few others for all or parts of last season. I recall seasons where MSU lost just a couple players, and it derailed the season.

[iaafan]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

[JoeCatsJoe]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

I’m sorry, we cannot claim to be neck and neck with a team that we haven’t beaten. Winning matters. Once we beat them and win a title, we belong in that tier. Until then, we don’t.

[iaafan]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

I’m sorry, we cannot claim to be neck and neck with a team that we haven’t beaten. Winning matters. Once we beat them and win a title, we belong in that tier. Until then, we don’t.

Winning matters but in the long run I’d rather be as good or better than someone and lose to them than be better and win. That title game last year was a near dead heat both on the scoreboard and statistically.

I’m not taking anything away from NDSU. They played well and took advantage of our egregious mistakes.

[JoeCatsJoe]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

I’m sorry, we cannot claim to be neck and neck with a team that we haven’t beaten. Winning matters. Once we beat them and win a title, we belong in that tier. Until then, we don’t.

Winning matters but in the long run I’d rather be as good or better than someone and lose to them than be better and win. That title game last year was a near dead heat both on the scoreboard and statistically.

I’m not taking anything away from NDSU. They played well and took advantage of our egregious mistakes.

Fair enough. I guess we fundamentally disagree on the first part of your post, because in my mind, it’s hard to be better than a program if you’re constantly losing to them. But I can agree to disagree on that. I think if we said that we’re consistently bringing talent that is at the level of NDSU, I would be OK with that sentence. Getting over the hump is most definitely the next and only hurdle.

[iaafan]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

I’m sorry, we cannot claim to be neck and neck with a team that we haven’t beaten. Winning matters. Once we beat them and win a title, we belong in that tier. Until then, we don’t.

Winning matters but in the long run I’d rather be as good or better than someone and lose to them than be better and win. That title game last year was a near dead heat both on the scoreboard and statistically.

I’m not taking anything away from NDSU. They played well and took advantage of our egregious mistakes.

Fair enough. I guess we fundamentally disagree on the first part of your post, because in my mind, it’s hard to be better than a program if you’re constantly losing to them. But I can agree to disagree on that. I think if we said that we’re consistently bringing talent that is at the level of NDSU, I would be OK with that sentence. Getting over the hump is most definitely the next and only hurdle.

Yeah, winning is all that matters at the end of the day. I just like what we’ve done since losing that semifinal game to SDSU. Two games later the improvement shaped by that were obvious. None of the losses since have left me feeling like we were just physically beaten. The only bad loss was at Missoula but weird stuff happens in that game more often than not. The Idaho loss was proven to be a fluke. I felt we outplayed NDSU here and last years loss to them was an epic game ala SDSU in ‘23. The loss to SDSU came down to a bad call. We had a mixup last year that gave NDSU a TD and then made a poor choice to go for it before halftime. Both games decided by minuscule plays.

[catatac]

I agree it's hard to seriously state we are dead even with NDSU until we beat them. They are our kryptonite right now. I admit that. I'll also state for the record (Just my opinion, I may be wrong) that if those two teams that met in Frisco last year play ten times in a row, the Cats win seven of them.

[iaafan]

“Neck and neck phrase: In a competition, especially an election, if two or more competitors are neck and neck, they are level with each other and have an equal chance of winning.”

[iaafan]

I agree it's hard to seriously state we are dead even with NDSU until we beat them. They are our kryptonite right now. I admit that. I'll also state for the record (Just my opinion, I may be wrong) that if those two teams that met in Frisco last year play ten times in a row, the Cats win seven of them.

So if we beat them, then you’re going to say we’re even? I bet you don’t say that. I bet you’re going to say we’re better.

Anyway, just having a little fun with this. We used to get pummeled by them, now we only lose by a nose (not even a neck).

[JoeCatsJoe]

I think people underestimate how mediocre the FCS is beyond the top 10-15 teams.

The FCS went under a dramatic change when NDSU began its thorough domination in 2011. It took years before anyone figured out what was going on. Then SDSU got it, then MSU got it.

The Cats didn’t fully figure it out until the 2022 semi final game against SDSU. Despite losing to them in 2023, that game confirmed to the players that they had the secret sauce.

If SDSU is down this year, it won’t be for long. I would never assume that’s the case until I see it. It’s not like the coach left after spring ball. They’ve been doing whatever regrouping they’ve needed since then.

The Cats, Bison and Jacks have been the three best teams in the FCS since 2019. But we were a distant #3 until 2023. Today we’re neck and neck with NDSU. SDSU is #3, but probably only temporarily.

I’m sorry, we cannot claim to be neck and neck with a team that we haven’t beaten. Winning matters. Once we beat them and win a title, we belong in that tier. Until then, we don’t.

Winning matters but in the long run I’d rather be as good or better than someone and lose to them than be better and win. That title game last year was a near dead heat both on the scoreboard and statistically.

I’m not taking anything away from NDSU. They played well and took advantage of our egregious mistakes.

Fair enough. I guess we fundamentally disagree on the first part of your post, because in my mind, it’s hard to be better than a program if you’re constantly losing to them. But I can agree to disagree on that. I think if we said that we’re consistently bringing talent that is at the level of NDSU, I would be OK with that sentence. Getting over the hump is most definitely the next and only hurdle.

Yeah, winning is all that matters at the end of the day. I just like what we’ve done since losing that semifinal game to SDSU. Two games later the improvement shaped by that were obvious. None of the losses since have left me feeling like we were just physically beaten. The only bad loss was at Missoula but weird stuff happens in that game more often than not. The Idaho loss was proven to be a fluke. I felt we outplayed NDSU here and last years loss to them was an epic game ala SDSU in ‘23. The loss to SDSU came down to a bad call. We had a mixup last year that gave NDSU a TD and then made a poor choice to go for it before halftime. Both games decided by minuscule plays.

I do think that you and I would agree that it is often such minuscule margins that draw the lines between the good and the great. NDSU constantly finds themselves on the right side of those, which can’t be just luck at this point. It always seems like they are more mentally prepared for the big stage than their opponent, unfortunately including us last year. We can take that mental edge away by beating them.

[JoeCatsJoe]

I don’t really want to get too granular about the specific wording and definition of phrases, but I guess you could say Sham and Secretariat were “neck and neck” in a lot of their races. But Secretariat always beat Sham out, and that’s why Secretariat is considered the best racehorse of all time and half this board probably doesn’t know who Sham is.

[cats2506]

I don’t really want to get too granular about the specific wording and definition of phrases, but I guess you could say Sham and Secretariat were “neck and neck” in a lot of their races. But Secretariat always beat Sham out, and that’s why Secretariat is considered the best racehorse of all time and half this board probably doesn’t know who Sham is.

I thought Man O War was the greatest racehorse of all time. Almost every racehorse in modern times including Secretariat traces linage to him.

[JoeCatsJoe]

I don’t really want to get too granular about the specific wording and definition of phrases, but I guess you could say Sham and Secretariat were “neck and neck” in a lot of their races. But Secretariat always beat Sham out, and that’s why Secretariat is considered the best racehorse of all time and half this board probably doesn’t know who Sham is.

I thought Man O War was the greatest racehorse of all time. Almost every racehorse in modern times including Secretariat traces linage to him.

That’s a defendable take. It’s kinda difficult to compare the two. It’s like comparing NFL QBs across eras.