What is the QB Outlook

[TomCat88]

What I was trying to get across is that McKay is probably the worst QB has had under Vigen, but that he wasn't bad and was actually a better than average QB. I'd give him a B or a 7.5-8 on a scale of 1-10. His first 5-6 games were probably A's as he nearly helped MSU beat Wyoming and was averaging well over 200 yards per game passing and about 40 rushing with a passer rating around 160. He got hurt and those numbers tailed off.

So, what that means to me is:
-Vigen and staff were able to take a QB brought in by the previous regime (not necessarily a bad thing, just pointing it out) and DEVELOP him into a quality starting QB in just a handful of months.
-the QBs since McKay have been DEVELOPED more extensively and have been All-BSC players every year (5 times in 5 years, I believe (Mellott three times; Chambers twice)).
-when Mellott was given the reigns, he put together the best QB season in MSU history.
-there's nothing in the Vigen Era that gives a reason to think that MSU is going to struggle at QB next year.

This isn't even including the work Vigen and staff did with Wentz at NDSU and Allen at Wyoming, among others.

The next QB is most likely not be as good as Mellott, but how many games did Mellott win last year that MSU would've lost. He gave up two TDs in the UNM game and I suppose if another QB does that MSU doesn't come back to win, but I think MSU would've beaten UNM handily. MSU manhandled everyone it played with the exception of USD and NDSU. UCD and UM held their own to some extent, but I think MSU wins both of those games. EWU is another possibility, but MSU manhandled them despite the score.

Just about every game that was close involved some kind of fluke plays. The two strip6s vs UNM, the long TD run by EWU, the onside kick and long pass play by UCD, the two long TD runs by USD, and the long TD run by NDSU. That's not to take away from the other teams as they took advantage of the opportunities and not to say that MSU didn't have some good fortune along the way.

[ruralcat]

I wish Wilson would’ve gotten the chance to play a little more this season. A fair amount of the games were over by halftime but Tommy still played all of the third quarter. By the fourth when it was 42-7 Wilson was basically relegated to handoff duties. The few times they turned him loose he showed he can really run. I’m guessing he needs more polishing in the passing game. He certainly has the size, speed and athleticism to pull it off.

[coloradocat]

When Matt McKay took that hit at Weber, it tore the muscles in his abdomen. He could barely move after each subsequent game. He knew there was pressure to play or be replaced. He played hurt.

That’s good to know. He made a few of the handful of good plays that the offense made in the Weber game. TD run, first down run to ice game, pass to set fg.

I say he’s at least what MSU should get statistically and better decision-making-wise because the coach/coaches didn’t hand pick him, while the QBs on roster were all recruited and signed by existing staff. So, not a whole lot of thought put into it.

If you look back at my posts since Mckay was here, I have made the comment over and over that he wasn’t the same after that particular hit in the Weber game. I never would’ve guessed it was abdominal tears. Nonetheless, you could see a huge difference in his physical and mental performance in the game after that very particular hit.

Big statistical drop off after Weber sans the EWU game.

Not sure what to think of the "he was playing hurt" revelation. Seems to me that playing while hurt affected his performance and was detrimental to the team - especially since there was obviously a better option on the team - maybe two with Rovig. Was he telling the coaches he was good to go? Also doesn't explain his quick jump to the portal. If you're the best QB on the team, but hurt, wouldn't one stick with the team and come back the next year?

Players want to play. Players don't decide who plays. That's the coach's job.

Maybe this is the sort of digression that people were pointing out above...but here goes.

Remember that REALLY weird presser that Housewright gave after the UM loss? There was clearly something strange going on in the relationship between Housewright & McKay. You could speculate to the end of the earth...was McKay hurt & the OC was forcing him? Was McKay just being 'soft' as others have suggested? Was there a bad relationship from the get go (McKay committed to Udy & Choate...that plus Covid was a significant change for McKay) or did the relationship sour for whatever reason over the course of the season? Did McKay see the writing on the wall with Tommy?

You can speculate to the end of the earth & I suspect that only a handful of people really know what was really going on.

I personally developed a pretty negative feeling towards House after that interview & I would note that despite the incredible successes of his offenses here that he's out of coaching (currently an analyst at Georgia Southern where he doesn't work with players). But I also have no idea if I'm reading too much into that situation or not.

Regardless, MSU has a long history of developing high performing QBs. Thats not going to change with the guys currently on the roster.

Well put. I’ll agree, was not a fan of House after that interview, and his career continued to snowball.

I was always a Housewright defender but in retrospect it seems evident that his strong personality wasn't a great match for his QBs.

[onceacat]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

[TomCat88]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I think Tommy kept the title game from being a blowout. Other than that, I think MSU still beats UNM and UCD without him (and his two strip6s vs UNM lol). QB may be the most important position, but I think OL/DL are more important units. It's important to remember that when you lose a great QB like Tommy, you don't have to go to the back of the line to get your next QB.

MSU most likely won't be as good at QB in 2025 but will most likely be better on defense and at RB, where it'll definitely be deeper.

[seataccat]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I certainly agree with all of this. I hope Vigan lives with who we have on the roster currently. I think it instills confidence in the guys you've recruited. Let them go through the growing process and develop them. I think we have plenty of talent on the team now.
Personally for me the the whole Chris Murray thing is still a painful memory. I think the guy had Tommy Mellot potential if not better. He proved it against SDSU when he threw darts all game for four touchdowns over 300 yards passing and over 100 rushing. The kid needed some hand holding and was essentially just shown the door. Maybe I'm way off base saying but I really thing Choate effed that up. I got to know coach Noah Joseph a little while he was here. A tough no nonsense guy but he knew how to handle players that needed some extra help. I think Murray was a situation like that. With a healthy Chris Murray the cats would have been rock solid at QB for years to come. I doubt Andersen, Rovig or Bauman would have ever taken a snap had he stayed.
I get the feeling that Vigan handles these situations better than Choate but I don't really know. I just wish the cats had a do over with him. It was hugely impactful to the program IMHO and not in a good way.

[VimSince03]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I certainly agree with all of this. I hope Vigan lives with who we have on the roster currently. I think it instills confidence in the guys you've recruited. Let them go through the growing process and develop them. I think we have plenty of talent on the team now.
Personally for me the the whole Chris Murray thing is still a painful memory. I think the guy had Tommy Mellot potential if not better. He proved it against SDSU when he threw darts all game for four touchdowns over 300 yards passing and over 100 rushing. The kid needed some hand holding and was essentially just shown the door. Maybe I'm way off base saying but I really thing Choate effed that up. I got to know coach Noah Joseph a little while he was here. A tough no nonsense guy but he knew how to handle players that needed some extra help. I think Murray was a situation like that. With a healthy Chris Murray the cats would have been rock solid at QB for years to come. I doubt Andersen, Rovig or Bauman would have ever taken a snap had he stayed.
I get the feeling that Vigan handles these situations better than Choate but I don't really know. I just wish the cats had a do over with him. It was hugely impactful to the program IMHO and not in a good way.

That 2017 team was so close. Those KSU and NAU losses at the end of the season were just brutal. Then Chris followed it up with a really good spring in 2018 but then the school stuff stopped it all. What could've been indeed.

[iaafan]

Tommy was a great overall QB but I'm sure I'll draw some ire for saying this, but here goes...

Despite having a great rating, he wasn't a great passer. Most of his completions were short simple routes. He did throw some beautiful passes over his time here. He also threw some bad passes. That's neither here nor there though. My problem with him (and it seems he agrees) is that he didn't pick up open receivers very well. In the championship game press conference he made a comment about being from Butte and there not being QB camps or schools to go to in Butte. I think that was just his way of saying he still has a ways to go to reach his ceiling.

He was a great leader and an incredible runner. Overall he was great, which isn't news to anyone, but I just want to be clear that I thought he was great and that I think he still had a ways to go as a passer.

[onceacat]

Tommy was a great overall QB but I'm sure I'll draw some ire for saying this, but here goes...

Despite having a great rating, he wasn't a great passer. Most of his completions were short simple routes. He did throw some beautiful passes over his time here. He also threw some bad passes. That's neither here nor there though. My problem with him (and it seems he agrees) is that he didn't pick up open receivers very well. In the championship game press conference he made a comment about being from Butte and there not being QB camps or schools to go to in Butte. I think that was just his way of saying he still has a ways to go to reach his ceiling.

He was a great leader and an incredible runner. Overall he was great, which isn't news to anyone, but I just want to be clear that I thought he was great and that I think he still had a ways to go as a passer.

You aren't wrong. Tommy was an FCS average passer at best through 3 seasons. He was quite good this year, although against really limited competition. Hes small, has trouble seeing over 6-5+ linemen, doesnt read the field particularly well & has good, not great arm strength. Accuracy is high for an FCS QB but not in the same league as most of the guys in the draft.

The most intriguing thing IMO is how much Tommy improved this year. Hes clearly nowhere remotely close to being an NFL passer, but hes also clearly nowhere near his ceiling.

His athleticism should get him some looks as a Taysom Hill or Percy Harvin sort of gadget player. If he had 2-3 more years to develop, I think he could probably work himself into a QB spot on Sundays, but hes a project (as a passer) at this point. Any team taking him in the late rounds is taking a winger on his crazy good athletic skills. And also, the potential to coach him up into a great passer.

[TomCat88]

Tommy was a great overall QB but I'm sure I'll draw some ire for saying this, but here goes...

Despite having a great rating, he wasn't a great passer. Most of his completions were short simple routes. He did throw some beautiful passes over his time here. He also threw some bad passes. That's neither here nor there though. My problem with him (and it seems he agrees) is that he didn't pick up open receivers very well. In the championship game press conference he made a comment about being from Butte and there not being QB camps or schools to go to in Butte. I think that was just his way of saying he still has a ways to go to reach his ceiling.

He was a great leader and an incredible runner. Overall he was great, which isn't news to anyone, but I just want to be clear that I thought he was great and that I think he still had a ways to go as a passer.

You aren't wrong. Tommy was an FCS average passer at best through 3 seasons. He was quite good this year, although against really limited competition. Hes small, has trouble seeing over 6-5+ linemen, doesnt read the field particularly well & has good, not great arm strength. Accuracy is high for an FCS QB but not in the same league as most of the guys in the draft.

The most intriguing thing IMO is how much Tommy improved this year. Hes clearly nowhere remotely close to being an NFL passer, but hes also clearly nowhere near his ceiling.

His athleticism should get him some looks as a Taysom Hill or Percy Harvin sort of gadget player. If he had 2-3 more years to develop, I think he could probably work himself into a QB spot on Sundays, but hes a project (as a passer) at this point. Any team taking him in the late rounds is taking a winger on his crazy good athletic skills. And also, the potential to coach him up into a great passer.

The overall run game will likely take a hit. The RB game should be as good or better. The passing game is anyone's guess right now, but there's definitely room for improvement there. Going to be an intriguing spring. On defense, I think MSU could be a real monster as I believe it will be quicker/faster than it was last year and that will cut down even more on the gash plays. MSU did a good job of cutting those down from 22 to 23 to 24. Seems they struggled there mostly against the good teams, which only makes sense. I bet UCD, UTM, Idaho, USD and NDSU had significantly more gash plays than all the other teams (10 games) combined. Some of them were assignment issues, while others were just due to a lack of speed at LB and in the secondary.
(sorry I'll start a new thread for the D)

[WetBreeches]

I'm fairly excited for the QB's (obviously going to miss Tommy)...Had it been said in '21/'22 "Tommy Mellot will be starting the first round playoff game." most people here would have been questioning how much success the Cats would have...not saying Warren or Wilson will come close to Tommy, but I believe one of them will rise up. I wondered if Warren would even make it to MSU and that was partly based upon his talent.

[Cats and Dogs]

I could see a couple scenarios playing out, kind of a delicate balance. Obviously the goal now is to compete for BSC and National Championships every year! Do Wilson and/or Warren give the Cats the ability to do that in 2025? Can they move an offense? Can they get points? Are they capable of playing at that level now? Can the other win games as a backup?
Are Vigen and staff comfortable standing pat and going into next season with 2 young and unproven QB's or are they feeling like they need a proven veteran to come in? And is there a proven veteran available in the portal that wants to come to MSU? If so, does it disrupt the QB room or is the transfer clearly ahead of the young guys? This would be best case scenario imo! Lots to consider, but at the end of the day, Vigen, Sterbick, etc. will need to have a dude ready to win games in 6 months.
Go Cats!

[TomCat88]

As of right now:
Wilson
Duchien
Warren
(Lamson is still TBD until some progress reports come out on him; could be the guy)

It's close between Wilson and Duchien. I think the one play that separates them from spring is when Wilson took off the red jersey and had a 59-yard TD run. Duchien is a very mobile and capable runner though, so it's not much of a separation. It's just one play, but if Wilson has the ability on a regular basis, then he'll move ahead. Aside from his play, I thought Duchien was excellent in commanding the offense. That's a big factor and I'm not saying Wilson doesn't have that, just that I noticed it on Saturday in Duchien.

There's still time for Warren to emerge and to think he'd be on par with Wilson/Duchien at this point is ludicrous. True freshmen QBs rarely emerge this early. It was a few weeks into the season before Lulay took over the job and I don't think he started to catch anyone's eye until late in fall camp.

Lamson is still a bit of a wild card but he's a totally unknown commodity. He's definitely going to be a good running quarterback. The coaches may have seen something in his passing that they thought they could develop.

Just some early thoughts. It's far from over.

[BelligerentBobcat]

As of right now:
Wilson
Duchien
Warren
(Lamson is still TBD until some progress reports come out on him; could be the guy)

It's close between Wilson and Duchien. I think the one play that separates them from spring is when Wilson took off the red jersey and had a 59-yard TD run. Duchien is a very mobile and capable runner though, so it's not much of a separation. It's just one play, but if Wilson has the ability on a regular basis, then he'll move ahead. Aside from his play, I thought Duchien was excellent in commanding the offense. That's a big factor and I'm not saying Wilson doesn't have that, just that I noticed it on Saturday in Duchien.

There's still time for Warren to emerge and to think he'd be on par with Wilson/Duchien at this point is ludicrous. True freshmen QBs rarely emerge this early. It was a few weeks into the season before Lulay took over the job and I don't think he started to catch anyone's eye until late in fall camp.

Lamson is still a bit of a wild card but he's a totally unknown commodity. He's definitely going to be a good running quarterback. The coaches may have seen something in his passing that they thought they could develop.

Just some early thoughts. It's far from over.

Absolutely 100%!

I don’t know why some people were assuming that he’d just walk in and be the starter because he was a higher ranked recruit, or would even believe that MSU was planning on him being the starter for this upcoming season.

[PapaG]

My thinking right now is that whoever is the more consistent passer of Wilson/Lamson over the summer and in fall camp starts at Autzen against the Ducks.

Closest thing to Tommy in terms of how they can run.

[TomCat88]

Wilson's starting speed/quickness are what I'm waiting to see. He's no doubt fast, but he wasn't a 100m runner. His 200m time is outstanding. He ran at 21.79 as a junior. That was nearly a second faster than his top time as a sophomore. So, I'd guess he would be in the low 21s as senior. The prep 200 record in Montana is 21.06. Jhase McMillan ran a 20.69 his senior year.

Mellott, who also didn't run track (Covid?) as a senior, had an 11.25 100m and a 22.61 200m as a junior. His speed probably improved from junior to senior, but I think it mostly improved after he started training at MSU with Herrin et al.

So, I have to wonder if Wilson and Duchien (12.45 100m/24.31 200m) are putting in the same work that Mellott did and if so, is that work paying off like it did with Mellott. Wilson's 200m time as junior was 0.8 faster than Mellott's 200m as a junior. I'm not expecting that Wilson is as fast as Mellott. He is fast though, but he has to make the reads and that's something he didn't show a lot of last year in spot duty.

[Colter_Nuanez]

Why is there a fascination with RJ Martinez? Sure he did alright at NAU but so what. I refer back to Colters pre-Natty interview with Prukop. Prukop said he had contacts all over the FBS asking about the Cats needing a dropdown QB. I have to believe we could get better options than Martinez.

A drop down QB isn't necessarily better than a good Big Sky QB. Travis Jonsen wasn't better than Rovig at QB, Sean Chambers wasn't better than Tommy, and Tyler Bruggeman wasn't better than Chris Murray.

So the thing I like about RJ Martinez is that he provides a very high floor. The 2025 roster with RJ Martinez is the clear favorite to win the Big Sky.

That said, it's not like I'll be broken hearted if the Cats don't bring in Martinez. I pretty much have complete trust in Vigen at the QB position at this point

This is actually really interesting to think about...we did our Top 5 Big Sky QBs of the last 10 years ( and the nominees included:

Vernon Adams, Eastern Washington
Dakota Prukop, Montana State
Gage Gubrud, Eastern Washington
Case Cookus, Northern Arizona
Tommy Mellott, Montana State
Jake Maier, UC Davis
Kevin Thomson, Sac State
Gevani McCoy, Idaho
Chris Brown, Cal Poly
Justin Arias, Idaho State
Alex Kuresa, Portland State
Dalton Sneed, Montana

Only two of those guys (Thomson, Sneed) were transfers, and both were circumvented through the UNLV calamity before landing in the Big Sky. Neithe was ever a "hot-shot" recruit. And both played at their perspective Big Sky programs for multiple years.

Also worth noting that the starting QBs for the Top 5 teams in the country last year at the FCS level were all three or four-year starters, and the three best - Mellott, Cam Miller, Mark Gronowski - started since they were freshman, each starting in two national title games along the way.

[lutecat]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I certainly agree with all of this. I hope Vigan lives with who we have on the roster currently. I think it instills confidence in the guys you've recruited. Let them go through the growing process and develop them. I think we have plenty of talent on the team now.
Personally for me the the whole Chris Murray thing is still a painful memory. I think the guy had Tommy Mellot potential if not better. He proved it against SDSU when he threw darts all game for four touchdowns over 300 yards passing and over 100 rushing. The kid needed some hand holding and was essentially just shown the door. Maybe I'm way off base saying but I really thing Choate effed that up. I got to know coach Noah Joseph a little while he was here. A tough no nonsense guy but he knew how to handle players that needed some extra help. I think Murray was a situation like that. With a healthy Chris Murray the cats would have been rock solid at QB for years to come. I doubt Andersen, Rovig or Bauman would have ever taken a snap had he stayed.
I get the feeling that Vigan handles these situations better than Choate but I don't really know. I just wish the cats had a do over with him. It was hugely impactful to the program IMHO and not in a good way.

At what point does the leader of your team need to hold his own hand to go to class? You shouldn't need to. He needs to be able to stand up in front of his team as an example. He didn't want to go to class and he did have his hand held some. You shouldn't need to do ot forever.

[MSU01]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I certainly agree with all of this. I hope Vigan lives with who we have on the roster currently. I think it instills confidence in the guys you've recruited. Let them go through the growing process and develop them. I think we have plenty of talent on the team now.
Personally for me the the whole Chris Murray thing is still a painful memory. I think the guy had Tommy Mellot potential if not better. He proved it against SDSU when he threw darts all game for four touchdowns over 300 yards passing and over 100 rushing. The kid needed some hand holding and was essentially just shown the door. Maybe I'm way off base saying but I really thing Choate effed that up. I got to know coach Noah Joseph a little while he was here. A tough no nonsense guy but he knew how to handle players that needed some extra help. I think Murray was a situation like that. With a healthy Chris Murray the cats would have been rock solid at QB for years to come. I doubt Andersen, Rovig or Bauman would have ever taken a snap had he stayed.
I get the feeling that Vigan handles these situations better than Choate but I don't really know. I just wish the cats had a do over with him. It was hugely impactful to the program IMHO and not in a good way.

At what point does the leader of your team need to hold his own hand to go to class? You shouldn't need to. He needs to be able to stand up in front of his team as an example. He didn't want to go to class and he did have his hand held some. You shouldn't need to do ot forever.

For players who struggle with academics the problems and solutions generally run a lot deeper than just "go to class". Just like the general student population, some athletes will be stronger academically than others in some areas and some players may need additional academic support of some kind in order to be successful. "Hand holding" probably isn't the best term for it but it is important to have people who are keeping track of players' academic progress and doing their best to connect them with the resources they need to do well.

[SparkCat]

Great post Tom.

And great thought experiment. MSU probably isn't undefeated with Chance or Jordan running the offense. UMN & Davis are maybe losses.

I think this is a 2 loss regular season team with those guys, still easily a SF team, and probably beat USD at home.

Put Chris Murray behind this line & Cats are STILL a semi final team & probably go the chipper.

Its just NOT an area of major concern.

I certainly agree with all of this. I hope Vigan lives with who we have on the roster currently. I think it instills confidence in the guys you've recruited. Let them go through the growing process and develop them. I think we have plenty of talent on the team now.
Personally for me the the whole Chris Murray thing is still a painful memory. I think the guy had Tommy Mellot potential if not better. He proved it against SDSU when he threw darts all game for four touchdowns over 300 yards passing and over 100 rushing. The kid needed some hand holding and was essentially just shown the door. Maybe I'm way off base saying but I really thing Choate effed that up. I got to know coach Noah Joseph a little while he was here. A tough no nonsense guy but he knew how to handle players that needed some extra help. I think Murray was a situation like that. With a healthy Chris Murray the cats would have been rock solid at QB for years to come. I doubt Andersen, Rovig or Bauman would have ever taken a snap had he stayed.
I get the feeling that Vigan handles these situations better than Choate but I don't really know. I just wish the cats had a do over with him. It was hugely impactful to the program IMHO and not in a good way.

At what point does the leader of your team need to hold his own hand to go to class? You shouldn't need to. He needs to be able to stand up in front of his team as an example. He didn't want to go to class and he did have his hand held some. You shouldn't need to do ot forever.

I definitely scratched my head when he mentioned Noah Joseph, essentially being a good dude. Noah was a little man with little man syndrome. Unless seataccat was an athlete up there with him, I was, the guy was a menace.