2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[technoCat]

For anyone that has a solid grasp on the seeding and the bracket, can you confirm a couple things? I think this has been talked about a lot but if NDSU wins, Cats win, SDSU wins, and UC Davis wins, is safe to assume it's a LOCK, meanig that ends up being the final order in terms if seeding, NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UCD? Second question, if USD beats NDSU but the Cats beat UM, I assume the order then would be MSU, then either NDSU or SDSU, then USD? Or could UCD sneak into the top four in that scenario assuming they win? I just think that second scenario might be more of a question mark but I assume the first scenario is a fact - but someone could correct me.

UCD would be ahead of USD in my opinion if they also win this weekend. They only would have lost to the #1 team in the country by 2 points and USD's resume would be pretty much be "we beat NDSU and lost to some other good teams".

[BleedingBLue]

Here's my opinion on what the committee would do and it's based solely on resumes.

NDSU and MSU win.
1. NDSU
2. MSU
3. SDSU
4. UC Davis

MSU and USD win.
1. MSU
2. NDSU
3. UC Davis
4. SDSU
5. USD

South Dakota only has a shot at ONE now ranked win. Everyone else will have at least 2, and 2 of those 4 would have 2 top 10 wins if USD beats NDSU. Those 2 teams are MSU and Davis. There's zero chance USD jumped NDSU even with a win, because NDSU's resume is too solid. They lost to SDSU so can't jump them. Unless SDSU and/or Davis lose, don't see how USD can get into the top 4 based on resumes.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... umes-bzbz/

[MSU01]

For anyone that has a solid grasp on the seeding and the bracket, can you confirm a couple things? I think this has been talked about a lot but if NDSU wins, Cats win, SDSU wins, and UC Davis wins, is safe to assume it's a LOCK, meanig that ends up being the final order in terms if seeding, NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UCD? Second question, if USD beats NDSU but the Cats beat UM, I assume the order then would be MSU, then either NDSU or SDSU, then USD? Or could UCD sneak into the top four in that scenario assuming they win? I just think that second scenario might be more of a question mark but I assume the first scenario is a fact - but someone could correct me.

My opinion:

Scenario 1, everybody wins: To me it's a lock that MSU and NDSU are 1 and 2 in some order. Much more likely that NDSU is 1 and MSU is 2 given the committee's initial ranking, but maybe they decide to reward MSU's undefeated season with the #1 seed especially since the FBS win over New Mexico is looking more and more impressive every week. I'd say 90% chance MSU stays at #2, 10% chance they bump up to #1. It would be an absolute travesty for a 12-0 MSU team to be seeded below #2 and I don't think that would ever happen.

Scenario 2, MSU wins and NDSU loses: MSU is absolutely the #1 seed in this scenario as all the other teams have 2 losses. Even if they lose, I think NDSU has a stronger overall resume than SDSU or USD because they played an all D-1 schedule while the other two did not. I'd have #1 MSU and #2 NDSU in this scenario but after that who knows. Does the committee reward UC Davis at #3 for playing an all D-1 schedule, or do they put SDSU and USD at 3 and 4 and drop Davis down to 5? Hard to say.

[thisnamesucks]

For anyone that has a solid grasp on the seeding and the bracket, can you confirm a couple things? I think this has been talked about a lot but if NDSU wins, Cats win, SDSU wins, and UC Davis wins, is safe to assume it's a LOCK, meanig that ends up being the final order in terms if seeding, NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UCD? Second question, if USD beats NDSU but the Cats beat UM, I assume the order then would be MSU, then either NDSU or SDSU, then USD? Or could UCD sneak into the top four in that scenario assuming they win? I just think that second scenario might be more of a question mark but I assume the first scenario is a fact - but someone could correct me.

Re: scenario 2. I would assume they’d try to put the MVFC and the Big Sky top teams opposite each other. Just my thoughts but a hypothetical semi final matchup of MSU vs SDSU and UCD vs NDSU seems like something the committee would lean towards vs having rematches

My opinion:

Scenario 1, everybody wins: To me it's a lock that MSU and NDSU are 1 and 2 in some order. Much more likely that NDSU is 1 and MSU is 2 given the committee's initial ranking, but maybe they decide to reward MSU's undefeated season with the #1 seed especially since the FBS win over New Mexico is looking more and more impressive every week. I'd say 90% chance MSU stays at #2, 10% chance they bump up to #1. It would be an absolute travesty for a 12-0 MSU team to be seeded below #2 and I don't think that would ever happen.

Scenario 2, MSU wins and NDSU loses: MSU is absolutely the #1 seed in this scenario as all the other teams have 2 losses. Even if they lose, I think NDSU has a stronger overall resume than SDSU or USD because they played an all D-1 schedule while the other two did not. I'd have #1 MSU and #2 NDSU in this scenario but after that who knows. Does the committee reward UC Davis at #3 for playing an all D-1 schedule, or do they put SDSU and USD at 3 and 4 and drop Davis down to 5? Hard to say.

[Montanabob]

For anyone that has a solid grasp on the seeding and the bracket, can you confirm a couple things? I think this has been talked about a lot but if NDSU wins, Cats win, SDSU wins, and UC Davis wins, is safe to assume it's a LOCK, meanig that ends up being the final order in terms if seeding, NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UCD? Second question, if USD beats NDSU but the Cats beat UM, I assume the order then would be MSU, then either NDSU or SDSU, then USD? Or could UCD sneak into the top four in that scenario assuming they win? I just think that second scenario might be more of a question mark but I assume the first scenario is a fact - but someone could correct me.

depends on what they want. if past indications hold true, 3 of the 4 BSC teams would be in one quadrant and MVFC would be spread across all 4. that BSC beats each other up and plays knock out

[RobertSebastianCat-81]

This is my fantasy bracket... I adjusted a few of the seeding ranks:

LEFT side to play RIGHT side in the championship

UPPER LEFT
Duquesne vs. #16 Rhode Island - winner to play #1 NDSU
Stony Brook vs #9 Montana - winner to play #8 Idaho

LOWER LEFT
SELA vs. #12 Abilene C - winner to play #5 S Dakota
Drake vs. #13 Illinois St - winner to play #4 UC Davis

UPPER RIGHT
W Carolina vs. #14 Tarleton St - winner to play #3 SDSU
SC State vs. #11 Richmond - winner to play #6 SEMO

LOWER RIGHT
UT Martin vs. #10 UIW - winner to play #7 Mercer
Lehigh vs. #15 Villanova - winner to play #2 Mont State

[Catprint]

WEEK 13 - BUBBLES BUSTED; TOP 8 SEEDS; FULL PLAYOFF BRACKET!

Best made plans go astray. I promised to write up early but now I am late. The biggest issue was the unexpected early birth of grandchild number 10 Monday night. Kinda disrupted the weekly plans on top of heavy workload and Band concert for grandchild number 1 and early thanksgiving buffet for Mom Number 1. Suddenly, three out of four evenings shot. But trying to give it my best to give us something to consider. Will create a variant later this weekend.

Lots of great comments and love @BleedingBlue bracket. I put this whole post together before reading any of the comments this week. Simply too busy. Pretty much spot on with the main predictions. As we will see, I do have an outlier view down below that is favorable to NDSU and MSU.


Bubbles Busted.

Boy, this is the week I should have bet on the all the losers to lose. I put together a slate of 14 games where in almost all cases we wanted the favorite to lose. Of those 14 games, the losers lost 8 of 14, including a slew of bubble teams. It will make the committees work hugely difficult on Selection Saturday (The selections are made late Saturday night; we just hear about them Sunday morning).

Losers that will affect the bracket and may allow teams like NAU to get into the bracket included Tarleton State, Austin Peay and UCA in the UAC: UT Martin in the Big South; Nova and Stonybrook in the CAA and ETSU and Chattanooga in the SoCon. Teams that were clearly in the field or very strong contenders suddenly looking like they are on the edge of the bubble or out. The big hurt is on UT Martin, StonyBrook, ETSU, and Chattanooga. Some of these teams are clearly out of the bracket (ETSU and Chat) while others still have a chance. But there is a butt load of teams that will have 7 D-1 wins either at 7-5 or 8-4 with a D-2 win. There are easily a dozen teams fighting for the last few spots.

Why do we care? Maybe we don’t but we might see one of these teams in our first-round game if they can upset some of the weaker seeded teams. I see teams that might get seeded like SEMO, URI and Tarleton State as upset specials by technically lower quality teams. I don’t see a huge difference between #13 seed and the rest of the at large. More on that later.

Offense and Defense Stats Among Top FCS Teams



The last offense/defense chart before playoff selections pretty much stays chalk. The Cats hold the #1 offense position and it is not even close. Our rating is 1.75. The next closest is USD at 5.75 and NDSU at 6.50. The only spot we slipped was in rushing as we went from #1 to #2 as the Wishbone rushing attack of Davidson is slightly ahead of us. On defense we slipped to 16.25 but remained at number three. Giving up the 160 yards on the last two drives to Davis hurt our passing yards per game. Finally, in aggregate we dropped to number 2 in the FCS behind South Dakota. What is really odd about the strength of South Dakota’s stat line is they have no ranked wins and a D-2 victory. In some ways their offense is not tested at all given they only scored 17 against SDSU.

The main use of this chart at the end of the season is to help us look at matchups and predict what might be a better opponent. Just for the fun of it. Given we love to pound the rock, it would give us extra juice if we played a team with a low defensive score and particularly a low rushing defense. We can see some fairly low rankings in our chart. Abilene Christian and Tarleton State both have sieves for rushing defense. And their passing D is not good. It is quite possible these teams could be seeded 15/16 which means Cats could play them in the first round.

Top 8 Seed scenarios

CATS WIN



First, I want to present the most likely scenarios for what I see as the likely Top 8 teams. The chart spells out the options. Scenario 1-4 assumes the non-competitive games go as expected. UC Davis, Mercer, UIW and Idaho all win their final game. Each of these teams will be heavy favorites. Sure, if anyone is upset, the final four seeds will be jostled and maybe a Richmond or a Rhode Island sneaks into a top 8 seed. There are a couple of advantages to the Cats if one or more of these upsets occur. First, we might pick up an easier #7/#8 game in the quarterfinals. Secondly, if we slip against the Gris, we would get a higher seed than if Davis, Mercer or Idaho loses. But we won’t dwell on this option – yet. Cuz there is another view.

Even though I put my scenarios together without much input from other brackets, the top four of five seeds pretty much fit the same pattern of the last four weeks. I know we all want to believe that the Cats deserve the #1 seed if we finish 12-0; 3 Top 10 ranked wins; FBS win. But it is not going to happen. The committee’s first ranking is going to hold true if the top 3 teams all win their last game. NDSU’s resume is simply better. They have more ranked wins; more quality wins; and much higher strength of schedule. Finally, we can all say we hate the KPI and its rankings that seem totally bizarre (Harvard is #2; Drake is #5), the committee is able to use this metric and NDSU is #1 and Montana State is #3. Even the eye test supports NDSU and its growth during the season and its dominating wins along the way.

• Scenario 1: NDSU wins, Cats Win, SDSU Wins. Everything will stay chalk. Nothing will change except UC Davis moves into #4 and USD moves to 7 or 8; maybe even out of the Top 8 due to only 7 D1 wins. Hard to say.

• Scenario 2: NDSU wins, Cats Win; SDSU Loses to MOST. This is a dicey option. It is entirely possible that SDSU does not drop to #4. However, if they do, then UC Davis would move up to #3 and we would play them in the semi-finals.

The ONLY way the Cats get the #1 seed is if NDSU loses to USD and Cats beat the Gris.

• Scenario 3: NDSU loses to USD; SDSU beats MOST. This will result in NDSU is #2, SDSU #3; USD #4 and Davis #5. But the #2-#5 seed is not a given in the order I predict. The problem is NDSU beat SDSU who beat USD who beat NDSU. So, the head to head doesn’t really work. Then have to go to the resume and I think my projection is built on the resume presumption. Playing USD in the semi-finals is a better matchup than playing SDSU.

• Scenario 4: NDSU loses; SDSU loses; This could end up MSU, NDSU, USD, SDSU. In this scenario, the #1 seed is not better than the #2 seed in scenarios one and two because we still play SDSU and still get three home games. It is possible USD would move ahead of SDSU but I don’t think so.


CATS LOSE



While none of us want to think about losing, it is possible. First, it is the Brawl. Second, the Gris are ranked #9 and regardless of the fan speak, they have shown to be able to put up the points. Third, ignoring coach Hauck’s blabber; the Gris are going to play Fife and he is clearly the better quarterback. All the stats support this decision and I firmly believe Hauck is a good coach and we will not see Ah Yat in the game except in some special QB draw/run type of opportunities.

However, here is my view that is shared by Sam Herder and Zach McKinnell. There really is no reason to change the seeding of the top two seeds if MSU loses and NDSU loses or wins. It really is a matter of resume. Sure, Gris will move up if the win as will USD with a win over NDSU. But look at the resumes. Cats will still be 11-1 with 11 D-1 wins; and FBS win; 2 Top 10 ranked wins. This is clearly a better resume than SDSU at 10-2 with only 9 D-1 wins and no FBS wins and better than USD at 9-2 with only 8 D-1 wins and 1 ranked win IF they knock off NDSU. Sure, Davis will have a similar resume but we beat Davis so no way they get ranked ahead of us. So, unless the Cats are blown out by the Gris and the committee decides 1 FCS loss at the end of the season is way worse than a lose earlier, I only see some shuffling for 3-5 in the seeding. Maybe I am wrong but I would bet on it if I could.

I believe NDSU and MSU are locked into the top two seeds regardless whether either team wins or loses. No change in the TOP TWO SEEDS!!

THE FULL BRACKET

First, here is a picture of all the teams by conference that are in, a lock to be in or are on the bubble. As you can see, there are 35 possible teams for the 24 spots.




Auto Bids

There are only a couple of auto-bids that are really up in the air or matter. That is the Big South title where four teams are still in the running; and MVFC where NDSU, SDSU or USD could get the auto-bid. The poor-man's FCS conferences NEC, Patriot and Pioneer all are undecided but it doesn't matter who wins as the conference's auto-bid will be unseeded and a first round loser.



The Seeds

Seeding the first 8 teams is not terribly difficult. Sure they can be some movement depending on Saturday's games but the reality there will only be one or two surprises, if any. It is the second 8 seeding that is really unpredictable. I went with a fairly conservative view but clearly there are some teams that could go higher or lower. For example, if ACU loses to SFA tomorrow, they drop from a 11 seed to maybe 5 or 16 seed. I claim no special insight in seeds 9-16 but I feel strongly i have 6 or 7 of the teams correct but only maybe 3 or 4 of the exact seeds.



It is important to realize that reaching the Natty is all about matchups and home field advantage. It is NOT about beating the best teams. Never has been. There are many times where the wrong matchup results in an early exit from the playoffs. A couple cases as examples. In 2022, Sacramento’s quarterfinal game against UIW was a bad matchup. The high-powered Cardinals passing game shredded the Sac State defense. If UIW has been given the 6th seed and Samford had been given the 7th seed (very justifiable based on resumes), Sac State would have easily beaten Samford and then faced NDSU in the semis which I would contend was still a better match up for Sac State than was UIW. The second example almost goes without saying. If the Cats had faced the number 11 seed in the first-round game (SIU or Chattanooga even though the teams were not seeded), it is far more likely the Cats would have dominated, then gone to USD and won and faced the Gris in the semi-final.

In light of matchups, later I layout out what I believe is the most likely bracket and what is the most preferred bracket. Preferred is based on best matchup for the Cats based on our teams’ strengths. For example, given our dominating run game, I believe we would prefer to avoid Mercer given their defensive performance against the run. Mercer gives up only about 56 yards a game.


Bubble Teams

Our main bubble chart lists who I think will be in the playoffs. I have made some adjustments from last week’s bracket due to the huge number of upsets that occurred with bubble teams. But to come up with the bubble teams, I have to project at least some of the games. Here is a quick overview of my projected winners. My bracket projects everything goes per chalk. The only losers in the Top 16 would be the head-to-head games (Gris, USD) and maybe SEMO.

NAU vs Eastern Washington – Everyone puts NAU firmly on the bubble likely getting in. There are two main reasons this may not happen. One, Eastern has been burning up the field putting up points. In the last two games, 77 and 43 points. Second, with only 7 D-1 wins, they really should NOT be in the bracket. However, all the upsets last week have put too many 7 win teams on the bubble. In addition, NAU has put up points of its own so I think NAU will win.

Tennessee State vs SEMO – Very intriguing. Can Tenn ST pull the upset? If they do, 8 D-1 wins but horrid SOS of 88. But they would be tied for the Big South title. I think they might sneak in.

Tennessee Tech vs East. Ill. – Could end up 7-5 with 7 D-1 wins but not sure their low SOS will get them in.

UT-Martin vs. Lindenwood – UT Martin sits at 7-4. They should beat Lindenwood which will give them 8 D-1 wins plus an FBS win (Kennesaw State should NEVER have been allowed to move up but Conference USA was desperate to add teams). But 8 wins is a good resume.

William & Mary @ Richmond – W&M loses and they are out of the bracket. Period.

New Hampshire @ Maine – This could be a tough game. We want Maine to win to improve our SOS at the last moment which would put Maine at 6-6. But I see UNH pulling it off but there could be an upset.

SFA vs Abilene Christian – Not going to happen. SFA loses and ends up 6-6. They are out.

SELA – Season over. Beat Nicholls on Thursday. Ended at 7-5 with 7 D-1 wins

Chattanooga @ Austin Peay – Could be hard for Chat to win. Even if they win, only 7 D-1 wins. Likely out.

Western Carolina @ Samford – WCU can win this game but only 7 D-1 wins and no ranked wins. Barely holding on to a chance to get in.

ETSU @ VMI – ETSU should win but only 6 D-1 wins. So really no chance.

UCA @ Tarleton State – UCA has totally collapsed. IF they pulled the upset, they would be 7-5 with 7 D-1 wins. But they are not going to win.

EKU vs North Alabama – It is Eastern Kentucky’s spot for the taking. Win against 3-8 North Alabama and they are 8-4 with 8-D-1 wins. I think they win and are in.

Southern Utah vs Utah Tech – at 6-5, SUU can be 7-5 with 7 D-1 wins including an FBS win. I think they could be in.

NC Central – Currently 7-3 but only have 11 games and a D-2 non-counter. So can only have 7 D-1 wins and a low SOS. Don’t think they can get in.


So given all this, my pick for the bubble is UT-Martin; UNH; EKU; NAU (Big Sky Boost); and for the final team I needed to choose between SELA and WCU. I chose SELA from the Southland. However, there are upsets waiting to happen. My picks are Tenn State over SEMO; Maybe UCA over Tarleton State; SFA over Abilene Christian and EWU over NAU. These are all on my list of potential upsets.

MSU PLAYOFF MATCHUPS

I want to put together what I think will be MSU’s playoff matchups as well as preferred match up. However, pretty big caveat. While many writers can pick 22 or 23 of the teams in the bracket, no one comes even close in the old system to pick the matchups in the first round and who matches up with the top 8. But this year with seeds for 1-16, it will be slightly easier. Still picking a team as 13th vs 14th is really just a crap shoot. No real rhyme or reason. My matchups assume the higher seed wins every game. Won’t happen but it is the only way to pick em.

This is based on my brackets and looking at a few other brackets at the last moment. Not many comments but I think there are teams we want to avoid. I would not want to see the Gris or Illinois State in the first round. Don’t like immediate replay games (committee may try to avoid it but no absolute requirement) and I don’t like playing MVFC teams because all of them have really good defenses. I think Cats match up well against USD in the quarter or semi-final but would rather see Richmond or Mercer over Idaho. We are better than Idaho but revenge games have emotional issues. Finally, to be honest, I do not want to face SDSU in the semi-final, even at home. But I imagine we will have to go through SDSU and NDSU this year. So won’t get much choice.

Likely Match ups

• First Round – Tarleton State or Nova
• Qtr. Final – USD or UIW
• Semi Final - SDSU

Preferred Match up

• First Round – ACU or Nova
• Qtr. Final – Richmond or USD
• Semi-Final – USD or Davis

FINAL BIG SKY PREDICTIONS

Just presenting my basic chart. I am 33-10 in predictions since week 2 ( I forgot to do some predictions the first week of play).



BRAWL OF THE WILD

Lets go with the basics because I am always concerned about certain games. This year I was concerned about New Mexico, Idaho State, Idaho, EWU and UC Davis games. I was spot on with 4 of the 5. I am concerned about the Brawl because "past results do not predict future success." Simple as that. NO matter that home team has won last four brawls. No matter we are undefeated and ranked #2. No matter that the series is tied at 10-10 for last twenty years. You get the picture. Each game is unique and new.

What the Gris will do to try and win

Offense
o Play Logan Fife the whole game
o Throw the kitchen sink at the Cats on Offense – Fake punts, onside kicks, Double reverses, long shots down the field; counter plays; throw the ball 40 times.
o Run tempo

Defense
o Stack the box with 7 or 8 players all the time.
o Blitz with 6 or 7 on every passing down
o Pressure Tommy
o Put a spy on Tommy on every pass play.

Will it succeed? Odds are low but when you have nothing to lose and everything to gain, there is no point playing the same game you played the first 11 games of the year. Gris know they can’t run against the Cats. Gris know they have to stop our run game and let Tommy beat them with his arm and scrambles. I hope for a blow out and the rain to hold off until about 3:30 because I don’t think the rain favors either team and I hate sitting in the rain!

GO CATS!

[Joe Bobcat]

Wow! As always you have done an incredible amount of work and your dedication to this is commendable. Thank you for sharing your thoughts!
My only complaint is that reading this didn’t help me get back to sleep.

[Montanabob]

Second round..... only edit needed. otherwise it is great but we all know the committee bias to regionalization of the BSC.

it is quite possible these teams could be seeded 15/16 which means Cats could play them in the first round.

[Catprint]

END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION


Here it is. The culmination of over 80 single spaced pages of posts for the last 14 weeks (Including week 0) First, I list the 10 auto bids and 9 guaranteed at large. You can see them in the chart below. I don’t believe any of these teams will miss the playoffs. BTW, I believe SDSU wins the autobid because the MVFC uses Sagarin ratings in its final tiebreaker and SDSU is ONE spot ahead of NDSU. In addition, I have not looked at Herder’s or any other final bracket before posting my choices.

AUTO BID CHART



AT LARGE CHART


TOP 8 SEEDS

There was only one loss in my Top 8 seeds and that was NDSU. However, as I explained in my full post, NDSU's loss doesn’t really move them down. The reason is simple – USD, SDSU and NDSU all tied for the conference championship. They own victories against each other so head-to-head is equal. The teams will have to be evaluated based on SOS, losses and D-1 wins. Per my earlier chart, NDSU clearly is the better team with the most D-1 wins and the #1 SOS in the country and a higher KPI. So this only changes the seeds slightly where MSU moves to number one and then NDSU, SDSU and USD.

Davis’ poor performance against bottom feeder Sac State today will prevent them from jumping ahead of South Dakota. MSU, SDSU, Mercer and Idaho crushed their opponents while UIW was trailing in the third quarter but needed a really to beat East Texas A&M. None of these results change the final three seeds.

SEED CHART



BOTTOM 8 SEEDS

Three of the bottom 8 seeds from my last week list lost on Saturday. Two of the teams were autobids (SEMO and ACU) and both were earning higher seeds. I don’t think they fall out of the Top 16 seeds but SEMO could due to a terrible SOS (80) and because it won the auto bid in a four-way tie for the Big South/OVC title. But it doesn’t affect the bubble team mess. Gris lost of course but they are guaranteed a seed due to 8 D-1 wins and high SOS (18).

I have rearranged the seeds some but really a total crap shoot. How much does committee consider SOS vs D-1 wins vs conference titles? I am not going to spend a lot of time on it but it does affect us because we play #16 if they win.

I left Richmond at #9 even though a low SOS. I moved URI and Illinois State up to #10 and #11 due to 10 wins and high SOS respectively. I moved Tarleton State to #12 and left Gris at #13. I think these could flop. Gris have a favorable SOS but only 8 D-1 wins. Finally, I moved Nova up only 1 seed because of low SOS and moved SEMO and ACU to #15 and #16. ACU has better SOS but only 8 wins while SEMO has a horrible SOS> My bracket means Cats would play Abilene Christian if ACU wins their first round game which is by no means a given. I think they could lose. I also think Nova, SEMO and ACU could all be the 16 seat. I am least interested in playing Villanova. They are a better team than #16.

Bubble Team Update

I inadvertently left Stony Brook out of the Bubble chart last week even though I had them in firmly in the bracket in my conference chart. This results in 16 teams competing for 5 remaining spots. There will be lots of disappointments on Sunday.

UNH and EKU are both in. They have 8 D-1 wins and decent SOS. Next on the list are Stony Brook and UT-Martin who have 8 D-1 wins and SOS in the 50’s. I think they are a safe bet. This leaves one spot remaining for 12 teams. I think it is between NAU with 8 wins and SOS of 25 and Tennessee State with 9 wins but an SOS of 85. I am going with Tennessee State with 9 wins. NAU played Lincoln, CA which isn’t even a D-2 team and I think that will cost them. NAU does have a 5 game winning streak. Does seem like a crime that Southern Utah, Western Carolina or Chattanooga with 7 D-1 wins and SOS between 21 and 27 cannot get in the bracket. They have the best SOS of the Bubble Teams other than NAU. The last one in is not something I would bet on. But essentially this is my last 5 in and last four out. The two I might have wrong are Stony Brook and Tennessee State.

Last 5 In

• EKU
• Stony Brook
• UNH
• UT Martin
• Tennessee State

Last Four Out
• NAU
• WCU
• Chattanooga
• Southern Utah



FULL BRACKET

I layout a simple bracket with my best guess for first round games. I just tried to regionalize best I could. I lay it out in the simple chart. I am guessing I have 22 of the 24 teams right; 14 of 16 seeds; 7 of 8 Bye Seeds and Top 4 seeds right. But who knows!!!



GO CATS!!

[BleedingBLue]

Well done @Catprint. I think Stony Brook and NAU swap spots though.

[Long Time Cat]

I just hope that SDSU and NDSU end up two and three, don’t care what order, so they have to play each other.

[MSU01]

Well done @Catprint. I think Stony Brook and NAU swap spots though.

Hear hear, this must have taken a ton of time to put together and it has been a lot of fun to read all year long. Thank you, @Catprint!!

[BleedingBLue]

The best thing about the goofy CAA is two of their best teams are leaving next year. 8-0 and outright conference champ Richmond is heading to the Patriot League of all conferences, and Delaware is moving up.