Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison

[catatac]

Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.

That sample is EW, WEB, and NAU:

EW allowed 37 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 52. They allowed 8.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.7.

WEB allowed 29 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 48. They allowed 7.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.4.

NAU allowed 18 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 31. They allowed 6.0 YPA on the year and Fife was at 7.4.

They were definitely better when Fife played the whole game. That stands to reason-- KAY is not good. But it's also a small sample and two of those games were at home and two of them were against really bad defenses.

When it looked like they were going to start KAY, I was predicting that MSU's defense would outscore the UM offense.

With Fife, they will put some points up. However, as long as the Cats' offense does what they should, UM won't be able to keep up. And the more they play from behind, the uglier it will get. The Griz line has not been good this year and the Cats will be the best front they've faced, especially in the pass rush department.

I think it's vital to get him moving backwards early and take away his first look. As you say, get them down early to apply pressure. I know Vigen likes to win the "middle 8" around halftime but it would not break my heart to have the ball first in this game and go hang 7.
Fife is strongest when he can hit his back foot and kick the ball out to his first read. So messing with his eyes is important, and stopping the run to neutralize play action is also. I like the match up for the defense but we will need to stop the run without loading the box.

Personally I'd MUCH rather make them start on offense. Raucous crowd that will be off the charts. Fired up defense just itching to erase the melt down in Missoula last year, Come out super fired up, rattle their QB from the get go, force a punt or a TO and then let Tommy and crew take over. I'm thinking of 2019 where our D took it to them first play of the game, forced a fumble, blowout from then on. Then of course that means they don't get the benefit of that first drive of the second half when a bunch of fans are still out tailgating.

[GoldstoneCat]

Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.

That sample is EW, WEB, and NAU:

EW allowed 37 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 52. They allowed 8.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.7.

WEB allowed 29 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 48. They allowed 7.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.4.

NAU allowed 18 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 31. They allowed 6.0 YPA on the year and Fife was at 7.4.

They were definitely better when Fife played the whole game. That stands to reason-- KAY is not good. But it's also a small sample and two of those games were at home and two of them were against really bad defenses.

When it looked like they were going to start KAY, I was predicting that MSU's defense would outscore the UM offense.

With Fife, they will put some points up. However, as long as the Cats' offense does what they should, UM won't be able to keep up. And the more they play from behind, the uglier it will get. The Griz line has not been good this year and the Cats will be the best front they've faced, especially in the pass rush department.

I think it's vital to get him moving backwards early and take away his first look. As you say, get them down early to apply pressure. I know Vigen likes to win the "middle 8" around halftime but it would not break my heart to have the ball first in this game and go hang 7.
Fife is strongest when he can hit his back foot and kick the ball out to his first read. So messing with his eyes is important, and stopping the run to neutralize play action is also. I like the match up for the defense but we will need to stop the run without loading the box.

Personally I'd MUCH rather make them start on offense. Raucous crowd that will be off the charts. Fired up defense just itching to erase the melt down in Missoula last year, Come out super fired up, rattle their QB from the get go, force a punt or a TO and then let Tommy and crew take over. I'm thinking of 2019 where our D took it to them first play of the game, forced a fumble, blowout from then on. Then of course that means they don't get the benefit of that first drive of the second half when a bunch of fans are still out tailgating.

Yeah you're not wrong. And if you get them off the field and then go score you are on track to gain huge momentum. But I think you can also seize momentum with an opening drive td and never give it back. We 100% should defer if we win the toss but I'm good on offense first too this week when we feel like we have such a physical mismatch.

[Prodigal Cat]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

[FA_Q_M]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

[Long Time Cat]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

Where you from? 45 at kickoff is what I see. That is not cold!

[FA_Q_M]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

Where you from? 45 at kickoff is what I see. That is not cold!

Ha!! Great Falls, MT....
Guess i never saw the forecast. just assumed it'd be chilly. We can agree it will be loud.

[catatac]

Ya, 100%. It will NOT be cold but it WILL be LOUD!

[snarf]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

Where you from? 45 at kickoff is what I see. That is not cold!

Ha!! Great Falls, MT....
Guess i never saw the forecast. just assumed it'd be chilly. We can agree it will be loud.

It might not be cold, but overall forecast is not looking great. It’s football in Montana in November.

[WalkOn79]

Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.

That sample is EW, WEB, and NAU:

EW allowed 37 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 52. They allowed 8.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.7.

WEB allowed 29 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 48. They allowed 7.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.4.

NAU allowed 18 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 31. They allowed 6.0 YPA on the year and Fife was at 7.4.

They were definitely better when Fife played the whole game. That stands to reason-- KAY is not good. But it's also a small sample and two of those games were at home and two of them were against really bad defenses.

When it looked like they were going to start KAY, I was predicting that MSU's defense would outscore the UM offense.

With Fife, they will put some points up. However, as long as the Cats' offense does what they should, UM won't be able to keep up. And the more they play from behind, the uglier it will get. The Griz line has not been good this year and the Cats will be the best front they've faced, especially in the pass rush department.

I think it's vital to get him moving backwards early and take away his first look. As you say, get them down early to apply pressure. I know Vigen likes to win the "middle 8" around halftime but it would not break my heart to have the ball first in this game and go hang 7.
Fife is strongest when he can hit his back foot and kick the ball out to his first read. So messing with his eyes is important, and stopping the run to neutralize play action is also. I like the match up for the defense but we will need to stop the run without loading the box.

Personally I'd MUCH rather make them start on offense. Raucous crowd that will be off the charts. Fired up defense just itching to erase the melt down in Missoula last year, Come out super fired up, rattle their QB from the get go, force a punt or a TO and then let Tommy and crew take over. I'm thinking of 2019 where our D took it to them first play of the game, forced a fumble, blowout from then on. Then of course that means they don't get the benefit of that first drive of the second half when a bunch of fans are still out tailgating.

My butt is in the seat for this game to start the 3rd.

[RickRund]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

Where you from? 45 at kickoff is what I see. That is not cold!

The forecast I am seeing, Wunderground, says 43* with rain starting at 11. Who knows, weather forecasts are like political polls.

Football weather.

[cats2506]

Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.

I guess UND can get pretty loud in a small, confined space but that didn't go well for them. Especially in the second half when North Dakota got it rolling.

Exactly. And that was inside. On Saturday, it's gonna be LOUD and cold. Gris have a distinct uphill battle.

Where you from? 45 at kickoff is what I see. That is not cold!

The forecast I am seeing, Wunderground, says 43* with rain starting at 11. Who knows, weather forecasts are like political polls.

Football weather.

NWS is saying high 30's, 8 mph & 80% chance of precip

[Lord Vigo]

So is the weather good because it makes it harder to pass or is it bad because it kind of acts as an equalizer for two teams that aren't really equal?

[cats2506]

So is the weather good because it makes it harder to pass or is it bad because it kind of acts as an equalizer for two teams that aren't really equal?

Traditional thinking is that bad weather is an advantage for a running team, especially if it is straight up running without a lot of cuts on the edge. I think this definitely plays into an MSU advantage.

Bad weather definitely makes for a tighter scoring game and greater possibility of turnovers, which translates to a um advantage.

I think with MSU's run game and a good punter the overall advantage is MSU in a bad weather game.

[77matman]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

[catatac]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

[TomCat88]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

Bad weather also effects the quarterback's ability to throw the ball. If the ball is wet, it's slick and hard to grip. If the playing surface is slippery, it's hard to get feet set. Poor footing may favor receivers, but not QBs.

The forecast I'm looking at looks good.

[ilovethecats]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

Bad weather also effects the quarterback's ability to throw the ball. If the ball is wet, it's slick and hard to grip. If the playing surface is slippery, it's hard to get feet set. Poor footing may favor receivers, but not QBs.

The forecast I'm looking at looks good.

This game could be played on the moon and I'd still love us by 3td's

[tetoncat]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

Bad weather also effects the quarterback's ability to throw the ball. If the ball is wet, it's slick and hard to grip. If the playing surface is slippery, it's hard to get feet set. Poor footing may favor receivers, but not QBs.

The forecast I'm looking at looks good.

This game could be played on the moon and I'd still love us by 3td's

Bad footing killed the Cats a couple years ago at SDSU

[ilovethecats]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

Bad weather also effects the quarterback's ability to throw the ball. If the ball is wet, it's slick and hard to grip. If the playing surface is slippery, it's hard to get feet set. Poor footing may favor receivers, but not QBs.

The forecast I'm looking at looks good.

This game could be played on the moon and I'd still love us by 3td's

Bad footing killed the Cats a couple years ago at SDSU

Played a part for sure. But SDSU played on the same field. I’m also of the belief that that SDSU team at home was much better than this UM team on the road.

[Lord Vigo]

Loose footing is in favor of the receiver. Defensive backs have trouble reacting quickly without falling. So, you can argue a good passing team will do just fine as long as the wind is not blowing hard.

Good post, that's what I was going to say. You can't just say, bad weather hurts the passing game or vice versa or whatever. It all depends on what you mean by bad weather. If it's poor footing\field conditions you are exactly correct in that this favors the passing game. If it's raining\snowing however, tougher to catch a slick ball.

Bad weather also effects the quarterback's ability to throw the ball. If the ball is wet, it's slick and hard to grip. If the playing surface is slippery, it's hard to get feet set. Poor footing may favor receivers, but not QBs.

The forecast I'm looking at looks good.

This game could be played on the moon and I'd still love us by 3td's

Bad footing killed the Cats a couple years ago at SDSU

That was different though. That was a literal ice rink. I have never seen anything else quite like it.