2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[tetoncat]

IMO, Vigen will win both Big Sky and National Coach of the Year if MSU finishes the job on Saturday and goes 12-0. Of course, team success is more important so I doubt guys like Vigen and Tommy care one iota about individual awards right now. I think that people on this board would do well to get over the weird "everyone must be out to get us/something is bound to eventually go wrong" mentality that seems to exist here. I used to fall into that myself on occasion but this team is too good for that to matter in 2024.

Vigen is almost a lock for FCS coach of the year. They might pick Plough for the BSC though. Pretty amazing what he's done in his first year.

They were a playoff level team last year that got snubbed. 6th year Sr came back as your QB, reigning player of the year at RB. Not like he took Idaho State to top of Conference.

[91catAlum]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

[catatac]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

In your last scenario, wouldn't it likely go MSU, SDSU, USD, NDSU?

[RockyBearCat]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

In your last scenario, wouldn't it likely go MSU, SDSU, USD, NDSU?

I think if SD beats NDSU, it goes: MSU, SDSU, UCD, USD, NDSU

[MSU01]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

In your last scenario, wouldn't it likely go MSU, SDSU, USD, NDSU?

I think if SD beats NDSU, it goes: MSU, SDSU, UCD, USD, NDSU

How the committee would handle a situation of NDSU, SDSU, USD all having two losses and 1-1 head to head records against each other seems like a total crapshoot. If I were in charge in that scenario I'd rank them as NDSU, then SDSU, then USD. NDSU gets the best seed because they didn't play a D-II opponent while USD and SDSU did, then SDSU is ahead of USD due to beating them head-to-head. Both SDSU and USD drop behind UC Davis, who like MSU and NDSU played an all D-1 schedule.

1) MSU
2) NDSU
3) UC Davis
4) SDSU
5) USD

[91catAlum]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

In your last scenario, wouldn't it likely go MSU, SDSU, USD, NDSU?

Ya that's possible as well. Hard to know for sure

[BleedingBLue]

South Dakota doesn't have the resume to jump NDSU, even if they beat them Saturday. NDSU will be their lone ranked win, and they will only have 8 DI wins. At best USD would get the 3 seed, at worst, the 5.

[RockyBearCat]

South Dakota doesn't have the resume to jump NDSU, even if they beat them Saturday. NDSU will be their lone ranked win, and they will only have 8 DI wins. At best USD would get the 3 seed, at worst, the 5.

I agree with your post but have noticed recency bias in the committee in the past. Let's just win, let SD win and see where the chips fall.

[RKMCMT]

All I know is, we are big Coyote fans this week. Our only for-sure shot at the 1 seed is for ndsu to go down. Then there's a decent shot that we only need to beat 1 of the dakota-state teams to win a natty.

The 2 seed is great too, but if everything went chalk from here (1-ndsu, 2-msu, 3-sdsu) then we'd have to beat sdsu in the semi's and ndsu in the natty. If ndsu loses this week to usd, there's a chance the seeds go 1-msu, 2-sdsu, 3-ndsu and we don't see a dakota-state team until Frisco.

The committee would drop one of them to 4 instead of putting SDSU and NDSU on the same side. That's the way they work it.

It's how we magically got dropped from ranked 3rd to seeded 4th two years ago after crushing UM.

Had to swap us with NDSU to avoid SDSU/NDSU in the semis.

[Prodigal Cat]

South Dakota doesn't have the resume to jump NDSU, even if they beat them Saturday. NDSU will be their lone ranked win, and they will only have 8 DI wins. At best USD would get the 3 seed, at worst, the 5.

A USD win would be the cherry on top for any Bobcat because of this:

A. The seeds would be 1 MSU 2-3 NDSU SDSU 4-5 DAVIS USD so Cats would get one of Davis or USD in the Semi's

B. Tommy would probably pass Miller for the Payton if Miller doesn't play well.

[BleedingBLue]

I am hijacking @Catprint's thread here. I have 2 brackets below. The first is what I think should happen if my predictions for this last week go as they should, and the second is what I think the committee will actually do.

I believe Abilene Christian has the best claim to a seed of the teams between 7 and 12. They would have the best win, and a SOS that isn't a disgrace. Their loss to North Alabama is bad, but their loss to Idaho is good. I doubt the committee will look at it that way though. If Richmond is 8-0 in the CAA after Saturday, they will absolutely get a seed based on conference name alone.

South Dakota is a weird team. They might be one of the 5 best teams in the country, but none of their wins (so far) say they are. Their only then ranked win was against now 3-8 Southern Illinois. They lost their first top 5 matchup, and they missed both Illinois State and Missouri State this year, taking away chances for ranked wins there. UND imploding has hurt their case as well. The ONLY reason they are still ranked in the top 5, is because they started there. If they had started the year at 10, they'd probably be somewhere in the 7-10 range now, and them being a seed even with a loss to NDSU wouldn't even be a discussion. No ranked wins and 7-3 against the FCS is absolutely not seed able in a 12 game season.

[MSU01]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

[Bocephus]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Probably my favorite bracket I’ve seen for the Cats

[coloradocat]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

[ClowderUp]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

Pretty good matchup me thinks.

[Montanabob]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

Pretty good matchup me thinks.

one of the better brackets i have seen in decades with less regionalization killing the BSC.

[94VegasCat]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

Pretty good matchup me thinks.

one of the better brackets i have seen in decades with less regionalization killing the BSC.

Gris would only get 1 home game. Tough sledding for the kids in dark pink.

[Montanabob]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

Pretty good matchup me thinks.

one of the better brackets i have seen in decades with less regionalization killing the BSC.

Gris would only get 1 home game. Tough sledding for the kids in dark pink.

ah shucks. the gifted group goes on the road after losing 4 games?

[The Butcher]

Here's Sam Herder's projected bracket for this week, he usually has a very good handle on how the teams stack up and what the committee will do. It would be really cool if MSU got to play Rhode Island in the playoffs 40 years after the famous win over them in 1984.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... ns-6-bzbz/

Of course Missoula would get Drake in the first round.

Yikes, then UCD in Cali. That could be a blood bath if the griz were to survive the mighty Bulldogs...

[catatac]

For anyone that has a solid grasp on the seeding and the bracket, can you confirm a couple things? I think this has been talked about a lot but if NDSU wins, Cats win, SDSU wins, and UC Davis wins, is safe to assume it's a LOCK, meanig that ends up being the final order in terms if seeding, NDSU, MSU, SDSU, UCD? Second question, if USD beats NDSU but the Cats beat UM, I assume the order then would be MSU, then either NDSU or SDSU, then USD? Or could UCD sneak into the top four in that scenario assuming they win? I just think that second scenario might be more of a question mark but I assume the first scenario is a fact - but someone could correct me.