2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[Catprint]

I know we all like watching the Griz lose. But, IF we win Cat/Griz next week, there will be one team in the FCS who is 12-0, with THREE currently top 10 wins. That team will also have an FBS win. SOS, KPI, what the hell ever be damned, that team should be #1. I will argue until I'm blue in the face the Cats should be #1 in that case.

It is hard to argue with the facts, one way or the other. As Sam Herder and Zach McKinnell both point out, there is a good case to be made for NDSU or MSU to be number one. The main reasons everyone points to NDSU is as follows:

1) SOS - NDSU is now projected to have the #1 Massey SOS at the end of the season. Cats will still be #22. I personally don't understand how NDSU's SOS moves to #1 but Cats does not move even with New Mexico's surge.

2) Ranked Wins - NDSU will have 5 ranked wins (USD, MoState, SDSU, Illinois State and ETSU) but only 2 wins over Top 10 teams (USD, SDSU). MSU will have 3 ranked wins, all of which are over Top 10 teams (Gris, Davis and Idaho). What I don't like is we beat every ranked team we played. Sac State was supposed to be ranked and we can only beat the teams on our schedule. Can't beat a ranked team that we don't play.

3) FBS - Even with New Mexico likely being 6-6 and bowl eligible first time since the ice age; the view is NDSU's close loss to ranked Colorado is better than MSU's narrow win over UNM. That is clearly an emotional view and not one that can be statistically measured.

All that said, if NDSU and MSU win out, I am rooting for BleedingBlue's logic!! Plus I am rooting for the Yotes to pull the upset next Saturday while we crush the Gris. That of course, is the best scenario. We need to go 1-0 every week but especially next week.

Go Cats!

[MSU01]

Another interesting question is that if they both win next week, who deserves to be the #3 seed between UC Davis (10-2, 10 D-1 wins, 2 Ranked wins, 2 Top 10 wins) and South Dakota State (10-2, 9 D-1 wins, 3 Ranked wins, 1 Top 10 win). Another case where it seems like you could make a good argument for either team. If all four win next Saturday I'm guessing that the order ends up being either MSU/NDSU/UCD/SDSU or NDSU/MSU/SDSU/UCD in order to avoid conference matchups in the semifinal games if the top 4 seeds all get that far. So it wouldn't really matter for MSU unless there's a big difference between the #7 seed and #8 seed teams for the quarterfinal round.

[MSUBRONCO]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

[GoldstoneCat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

I have this question as well. Sdsu will be 10-2 with 9 D1 wins and a higher SOS, not the conference champ/autobiography. We would be 11-1 with 11 D1 wins including 1 FBS, big sky auto bid, worse SOS. I think we should still be 2 in that scenario but it's essentially a horse apiece at that point. We would have the best win but a worse loss. I think floor is 3 seed at this point, be pretty hard to elevate Davis past us. This is assuming the yotes lose to bizons.

[coloradocat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

[BleedingBLue]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

I have this question as well. Sdsu will be 10-2 with 9 D1 wins and a higher SOS, not the conference champ/autobiography. We would be 11-1 with 11 D1 wins including 1 FBS, big sky auto bid, worse SOS. I think we should still be 2 in that scenario but it's essentially a horse apiece at that point. We would have the best win but a worse loss. I think floor is 3 seed at this point, be pretty hard to elevate Davis past us. This is assuming the yotes lose to bizons.

This here. I would argue we're locked into top 2, but you never know. I just don't see how the committee could possibly justify a team with 2 fewer DI wins from the MVFC being ahead of an 11 DI win conference champ from the BSC.

[MSU01]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

If MSU loses Cat/Griz and NDSU beats USD, then I think the worst case scenario would be for MSU to drop to #3 with NDSU and SDSU at #1 and #2. IMO, MSU deserves the #2 over SDSU even if they lose Cat/Griz (11 D-1 wins vs 9 D-1 wins is significant)...but the committee may well disagree. The Bobcats should safely be seeded ahead of a UC Davis team they beat head to head, Mercer coming out of a much weaker conference, and the likes of South Dakota/UM/Idaho who would all have three losses.

If MSU loses Cat/Griz and USD beats NDSU, then it's total chaos as you've got the two Big Sky co-champs at 11-1 and the three MVFC co-champs all at 10-2 or 9-2 in USD's case due to their cancelled game. In that scenario you could make a compelling argument for MSU to be the #1 seed, but I can also see a scenario where the committee could drop them all the way to #4 behind the three MVFC teams with Davis at #5 as MSU's likely quarterfinal opponent.

[technoCat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

If MSU loses Cat/Griz and NDSU beats USD, then I think the worst case scenario would be for MSU to drop to #3 with NDSU and SDSU at #1 and #2. IMO, MSU deserves the #2 over SDSU even if they lose Cat/Griz (11 D-1 wins vs 9 D-1 wins is significant)...but the committee may well disagree. The Bobcats should safely be seeded ahead of a UC Davis team they beat head to head, Mercer coming out of a much weaker conference, and the likes of South Dakota/UM/Idaho who would all have three losses.

If MSU loses Cat/Griz and USD beats NDSU, then it's total chaos as you've got the two Big Sky co-champs at 11-1 and the three MVFC co-champs all at 10-2 or 9-2 in USD's case due to their cancelled game. In that scenario you could make a compelling argument for MSU to be the #1 seed, but I can also see a scenario where the committee could drop them all the way to #4 behind the three MVFC teams with Davis at #5 as MSU's likely quarterfinal opponent.

If this were to happen, there had better be a formal complaint from the BSC. A huge reason that the DSU's have been so successful over the past 14 years is that they almost never have to go on the road in the playoffs. We see how much closer the games are when they finally have to, if they don't outright lose.

Don't think it will be a problem as we will roll this weekend!!

[catatac]

Assuming the Cats beat the Griz, #2 is absolutely a lock and #1 is possible but I wouldn't count on that. If the Cats somehow lose to the Griz, and SDSU and NDSU both win, IMO there is almost zero chance the Cats aren't seeded #3.

[GoCats18]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

[coloradocat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

I don't think this is a concern. It's generally accepted across the country that we're at worst the 2nd best team. We could even stay at #2 with a close loss. I think the only way we slide to the 3 seed is if we lose by double digits.

[Catprint]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

I think it is clear that one of the many first year coaches who have over achieved (Stony Brook, NAU, Mercer and ETSU) as well as Plough at UC Davis and Polasek at NDSU are all likely winners. I would be surprised if Vigen finishes higher than 3rd or 4th. Not because Vigen isn't a good coach - he is a great coach. Its because the reward in general should be called "Coach who has the most unexpected turnaround award." For that reason, I think Stony Brook or ETSU coach are likely winners with Mercer coach a dark horse.

[GoCats18]

Or have a Head Coach of the Year and a Newcomer Head Coach of the year. There should also be a Robby Hauck Award, for the player who end up with the most tackles after the play is dead and jumps on the pile and is awarded the tackle.

[catatac]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

No. Please stop.

[onceacat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

No. Please stop.

FFS. Please stop.

An undefeated BSC team will ALWAYS get the nod over a 1 loss MVFC team.

Seriously, its just embarrassing.

And, to top it off: Vigen is the best coach in FCS, hands down. Theres also a <1% chance that he gets Coach of the Year, nor should he.

[onceacat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

I think it is clear that one of the many first year coaches who have over achieved (Stony Brook, NAU, Mercer and ETSU) as well as Plough at UC Davis and Polasek at NDSU are all likely winners. I would be surprised if Vigen finishes higher than 3rd or 4th. Not because Vigen isn't a good coach - he is a great coach. Its because the reward in general should be called "Coach who has the most unexpected turnaround award." For that reason, I think Stony Brook or ETSU coach are likely winners with Mercer coach a dark horse.

You can think of it as the coach that brings the most 'added value' to a team. When Vigen was hired, he inherited a team primed for deep playoff runs. Since taking over a loaded '21 team, the team has continued to look about the same as that '21 team.

Coach of the year is for someone who did something out of this world...not for someone that did the same thing that he's don'e (impressively) for 4 seasons.

[Long Time Cat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

I think it is clear that one of the many first year coaches who have over achieved (Stony Brook, NAU, Mercer and ETSU) as well as Plough at UC Davis and Polasek at NDSU are all likely winners. I would be surprised if Vigen finishes higher than 3rd or 4th. Not because Vigen isn't a good coach - he is a great coach. Its because the reward in general should be called "Coach who has the most unexpected turnaround award." For that reason, I think Stony Brook or ETSU coach are likely winners with Mercer coach a dark horse.

You can think of it as the coach that brings the most 'added value' to a team. When Vigen was hired, he inherited a team primed for deep playoff runs. Since taking over a loaded '21 team, the team has continued to look about the same as that '21 team.

Coach of the year is for someone who did something out of this world...not for someone that did the same thing that he's don'e (impressively) for 4 seasons.

It seems to me that the first undefeated season in school history, and the only undefeated team in FCS football might be considered out of this world.

[GoldstoneCat]

Not trying to be negative but what's worse case scenario IF we lose to the friz(game always 50/50 no matter what)?

Worst case scenario is we fall to the 3 seed.

I wonder if we don’t win convincingly against UM, if the playoff committee doesn’t slot NDSU and SDSU at #1 & 2. I only say this because of the past playoff history and the fact that it feels like we will never get the respect we deserve. It won’t surprise me if Vigen doesn’t get FCS coach of the year, though he clearly deserves it.

I think it is clear that one of the many first year coaches who have over achieved (Stony Brook, NAU, Mercer and ETSU) as well as Plough at UC Davis and Polasek at NDSU are all likely winners. I would be surprised if Vigen finishes higher than 3rd or 4th. Not because Vigen isn't a good coach - he is a great coach. Its because the reward in general should be called "Coach who has the most unexpected turnaround award." For that reason, I think Stony Brook or ETSU coach are likely winners with Mercer coach a dark horse.

You can think of it as the coach that brings the most 'added value' to a team. When Vigen was hired, he inherited a team primed for deep playoff runs. Since taking over a loaded '21 team, the team has continued to look about the same as that '21 team.

Coach of the year is for someone who did something out of this world...not for someone that did the same thing that he's don'e (impressively) for 4 seasons.

It seems to me that the first undefeated season in school history, and the only undefeated team in FCS football might be considered out of this world.

If we go 12-0 Vigen is right there for national coach of the year and will win bsc coach of the year. He deserves his flowers. Say what you want about the team he inherited and relative state of the program but this man has never lost a regular season home game.

[MSU01]

IMO, Vigen will win both Big Sky and National Coach of the Year if MSU finishes the job on Saturday and goes 12-0. Of course, team success is more important so I doubt guys like Vigen and Tommy care one iota about individual awards right now. I think that people on this board would do well to get over the weird "everyone must be out to get us/something is bound to eventually go wrong" mentality that seems to exist here. I used to fall into that myself on occasion but this team is too good for that to matter in 2024.

[WalkOn79]

IMO, Vigen will win both Big Sky and National Coach of the Year if MSU finishes the job on Saturday and goes 12-0. Of course, team success is more important so I doubt guys like Vigen and Tommy care one iota about individual awards right now. I think that people on this board would do well to get over the weird "everyone must be out to get us/something is bound to eventually go wrong" mentality that seems to exist here. I used to fall into that myself on occasion but this team is too good for that to matter in 2024.

Vigen is almost a lock for FCS coach of the year. They might pick Plough for the BSC though. Pretty amazing what he's done in his first year.