2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[orsalak]

The 1 seed is great but the difference between the 1 and the 2 is small especially since the chance of the committee putting the loser of the marker anywhere but on MSU’s side of the bracket is just about 0.

[catatac]

Tough one for me to figure out.

Regardless of who wins does either of them drop below us with a loss? Seems like a stretch to me but I'm not good at this stuff!

If NDSU loses, 100% they drop below MSU in the voter polls (no clue what would happen in the computer rankings). The vote totals in the polls between those two are already very close so it wouldn't take many voters dropping NDSU by a spot or two to flip the overall count.

If SDSU loses, I'd say they probably drop below MSU but it wouldn't be for certain.

This. In fact I'll go as far as to say, if the Cats beat PSU this weekend they move to #2 regardless of the NDSU\SDSU outcome. If anyone disagrees with that, message me and let's place a wager on it!

[Bobcat Sig]

Perhaps I’m bruised and battered from the Cats seemingly always being a lower than deserved seed or ranking.

My guard is that the Cats revert to #3 no matter who takes home The Marker.

Further, I bet that despite a perfect season, the Cats still won’t receive a favorable playoff seed. The Playoff Committee (along with pollsters) seem intent on keeping the DSU schools at the top of the heap, regardless.

[MSU01]

Perhaps I’m bruised and battered from the Cats seemingly always being a lower than deserved seed or ranking.

My guard is that the Cats revert to #3 no matter who takes home The Marker.

Further, I bet that despite a perfect season, the Cats still won’t receive a favorable playoff seed. The Playoff Committee (along with pollsters) seem intent on keeping the DSU schools at the top of the heap, regardless.

Other than 2022 when MSU probably should have been the #3 seed instead of #4, I think MSU has had pretty good treatment from the committee strictly in terms of seeding. They easily could have been unseeded in 2021 but snuck in at #8 which became hugely consequential when SDSU took out #4 and #5 in consecutive weeks, and they were #6 last year despite an 8-3 record in the regular season. What has screwed them over has been the regionalization of the bracket that has put them up against stronger opponents early in the playoffs than the eastern & southern teams have had to face. That should be minimized now that the bracket is being seeded all the way down to #16.

[tetoncat]

Perhaps I’m bruised and battered from the Cats seemingly always being a lower than deserved seed or ranking.

My guard is that the Cats revert to #3 no matter who takes home The Marker.

Further, I bet that despite a perfect season, the Cats still won’t receive a favorable playoff seed. The Playoff Committee (along with pollsters) seem intent on keeping the DSU schools at the top of the heap, regardless.

Other than 2022 when MSU probably should have been the #3 seed instead of #4, I think MSU has had pretty good treatment from the committee strictly in terms of seeding. They easily could have been unseeded in 2021 but snuck in at #8 which became hugely consequential when SDSU took out #4 and #5 in consecutive weeks, and they were #6 last year despite an 8-3 record in the regular season. What has screwed them over has been the regionalization of the bracket that has put them up against stronger opponents early in the playoffs than the eastern & southern teams have had to face. That should be minimized now that the bracket is being seeded all the way down to #16.

Only if you assume regions will have nothing to do with seeding.

[tetoncat]

@Catprint Why do you think the committee would value a win over New Mexico greater than a Marker win and a much better SOS (this applies regardless of who wins on Saturday)? The committee likely believes that both DSUs are better than New Mexico so our win would be worth less than the Marker winner.

Doing my best to channel my alter ego - Mr. Optimism. I just want to believe 12-0 and an FBS win is rewarded with the #1 seed. However, I was listening to Sam Herder and Zach McKinnell tonight and their perspective of the #1 and #2 seed. They looked at the Marker game possible outcomes and felt the Cats have a great chance to be #1 or #2 seed if we win out. However, they agree if SDSU wins the Marker Game and wins out, SDSU is more likely to get the #1 seed due to same factors I raised (before listening to their podcast) - 1) Best SOS; 2) 2 year champion; 3) more ranked wins. It was funny that Sam mentions how 1) Cat's fans don't believe we will get the #1 seed due to bias in favor of DSU's and 2) the committee will be sure that the DSUs are on opposite sides of the bracket. Sam points out that SDSU fans always felt there was an NDSU bias in the 2010's. We all tend to think we are getting the short end of the stick. Just human nature.

As far as the seeding, honestly, who gets #1 or #2 is difficult to determine in certain win out scenarios. Maybe we won't see that because all the top teams get a loss (see scenario #5) but then the same question is raised. I am tending to change my mind on who I want to win the Marker game. I am leaning to the best outcome is a close win by NDSU. This gives a 12-0 MSU team a little better edge to get the #1 seed in my mind.

Some my ask, what difference does it mean to get the #1 vs #2 seed? Both teams get three home games. What's the big deal. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind at Brookings. Look at SDSU's total annihilation of UAlbany. It is quite possible the #4 seed this year will be a weaker team than the top 3 seeds (or #4 will be upset like Idaho was last year). Being the #2 seed most likely gives us a semi-final game against a DSU at home. Being #1 will give us a semi-final against a team that likely has not been to the semi's ever or not for many years. This is a significant advantage in my mine.

Still possible they seed the DSU'S at 2 and 4 or 3 and 4 to keep on opposite sides of bracket so a 1 doesn't guarantee we miss either of them.

[Catprint]

Perhaps I’m bruised and battered from the Cats seemingly always being a lower than deserved seed or ranking.

My guard is that the Cats revert to #3 no matter who takes home The Marker.

Further, I bet that despite a perfect season, the Cats still won’t receive a favorable playoff seed. The Playoff Committee (along with pollsters) seem intent on keeping the DSU schools at the top of the heap, regardless.

Other than 2022 when MSU probably should have been the #3 seed instead of #4, I think MSU has had pretty good treatment from the committee strictly in terms of seeding. They easily could have been unseeded in 2021 but snuck in at #8 which became hugely consequential when SDSU took out #4 and #5 in consecutive weeks, and they were #6 last year despite an 8-3 record in the regular season. What has screwed them over has been the regionalization of the bracket that has put them up against stronger opponents early in the playoffs than the eastern & southern teams have had to face. That should be minimized now that the bracket is being seeded all the way down to #16.

Only if you assume regions will have nothing to do with seeding.

A few thoughts:

1) The loser of the marker goes to #3 in the Stats poll. Guaranteed. I listened to a half dozen voters in various podcasts and they all agree. As very knowledgeable voters, they are going to drop the loser.

2) I agree with @MSU01 that the Cats have been treated fairly except in 2022. A large number of voters have the Cats as a legitimate contender for the Natty.

3) The real problem is as I stated earlier: NDSU wins the Marker and then wins out (highly likely). Even if Cats win out, NDSU keeps the top seed due to a) win over #1 SDSU; b) more ranked wins (5 to 3); c) performance against potential Top 25 Colorado Power 4 team. This results in Cats playing SDSU in the semis and NDSU getting someone like Nova or SEMO or such that NDSU will blow the doors off in the semi.

4) The committee has basic integrity. They will not pay attention to regions when seeding #9-#16. It will be based on the numbers. That was the whole reason to get rid of regionality. No one liked it including all the ADs who serve on the committee.

5) But of course, all of this assume all three teams will win out which I believe is possible but not the most likely option. Both DSU's have to face USD and SDSU has to play UND on the road. Tough schedule.

[Bocephus]

Perhaps I’m bruised and battered from the Cats seemingly always being a lower than deserved seed or ranking.

My guard is that the Cats revert to #3 no matter who takes home The Marker.

Further, I bet that despite a perfect season, the Cats still won’t receive a favorable playoff seed. The Playoff Committee (along with pollsters) seem intent on keeping the DSU schools at the top of the heap, regardless.

Other than 2022 when MSU probably should have been the #3 seed instead of #4, I think MSU has had pretty good treatment from the committee strictly in terms of seeding. They easily could have been unseeded in 2021 but snuck in at #8 which became hugely consequential when SDSU took out #4 and #5 in consecutive weeks, and they were #6 last year despite an 8-3 record in the regular season. What has screwed them over has been the regionalization of the bracket that has put them up against stronger opponents early in the playoffs than the eastern & southern teams have had to face. That should be minimized now that the bracket is being seeded all the way down to #16.

Only if you assume regions will have nothing to do with seeding.

A few thoughts:

1) The loser of the marker goes to #3 in the Stats poll. Guaranteed. I listened to a half dozen voters in various podcasts and they all agree. As very knowledgeable voters, they are going to drop the loser.

2) I agree with @MSU01 that the Cats have been treated fairly except in 2022. A large number of voters have the Cats as a legitimate contender for the Natty.

3) The real problem is as I stated earlier: NDSU wins the Marker and then wins out (highly likely). Even if Cats win out, NDSU keeps the top seed due to a) win over #1 SDSU; b) more ranked wins (5 to 3); c) performance against potential Top 25 Colorado Power 4 team. This results in Cats playing SDSU in the semis and NDSU getting someone like Nova or SEMO or such that NDSU will blow the doors off in the semi.

4) The committee has basic integrity. They will not pay attention to regions when seeding #9-#16. It will be based on the numbers. That was the whole reason to get rid of regionality. No one liked it including all the ADs who serve on the committee.

5) But of course, all of this assume all three teams will win out which I believe is possible but not the most likely option. Both DSU's have to face USD and SDSU has to play UND on the road. Tough schedule.

I’m rooting for a 2-TD SDSU win on the road this weekend.

[Catprint]

PART II – CAT-P; Big Sky Chaos & Playoff Predictions; Cats vs PSU

Who lost from our list?

Another poor showing in the upset category as far as playoff seeding for the Cats goes. We are heading down a path that could make this one of the most difficult seeding decisions the playoff committee has made. The members could have 7-10 teams with zero or one FCS loss.

• Tennessee Tech @ SEMO –SEMO TO LOSE. MISSED IT
• Brown @ URI – URI TO LOSE – MISSED IT
• Missouri State @ Illinois State – ISU TO LOSE – GOT IT.
• NDSU @ SIU –NDSU TO LOSE – MISSED IT.
• Princeton @ Mercer –MERCER TO LOSE – MISSED IT
• Nicholls @ UIW –UIW TO LOSE – MISSED IT

Overall, not making much headway in knocking back the teams that are challenging for Top 8 seeds. Everyone keeps winning.

Who we want to lose this Week

A slightly better slate of games that might shake up the top 10.

• Nova @ Maine – Yes, the Maine that the Cats demolished and everyone said is terrible. They are 3-3 and 1-2 in the CAA. They have an opportunity to make a statement against a Nova team with a good defense but a shell of an offense. Nova is rated 2nd to last in my weekly aggregate stats. Who is worse in the Stats? Idaho, whose offense seems totally lost on the field. Anyway, we want Maine so we can improve our SOS – NOVA to LOSE
• URI @ New Hampshire – URI keeps pulling out the close wins. At 5-1, are they really a threat to be a Top 10 team (if they end up say 10-2?). I think not but nonetheless – URI TO LOSE.
• Wofford @ Chattanooga – Do we really care? Only in that we want like four teams at the top of the Southern Conference come end of the year so there is no team with only one FCS loss. – CHAT TO LOSE.
• Mercer @ Samford – Mercer still shows up every week and their defense throttles teams. It is actually somewhat amazing. Mercer is clearly the #1 defensive team in my aggregate stats – MERCER TO LOSE
• Delaware @ Richmond – Pretty clear-cut. Since Delaware is transitioning and is not playoff eligible, we want RICHMOND TO LOSE.
• McNeese State @ UIW – The cardinals already have two losses but I would rather see McNeese State in the playoffs and get paired against the mighty “Bobby says, “I am so proud of this team”, after the 55-48 loss to Weber Grill”. – UIW TO LOSE.
• SDSU @ NDSU – Of course, we want both teams to lose. Nevertheless, we cannot have our Bison Burger and our Rabbit Stew at the same time. Just too rich for a Saturday. Therefore, someone has to lose. I have no idea who will lose. But… Cats are in a puzzler here. We want NDSU to lose so we can vault to #2 and we hate NDSU. However, the best way to get the #1 seed is for SDSU to fall here and NDSU to fall to USD later. So – SDSU TO LOSE


CAT-P Week 8
Not much change at the top of the list. The Cats did get two #1 positions and four #2 positions. As a result, we have closed the gap on NDSU as number two – only 0.13 points off. Idaho of course dropped but not as far as they did in the Stats poll. Pretty much everyone thinks Idaho is really good. Not so sure but if so, it helps the Cats.

The tiers divided a little differently this week. Top 4 remained the same. However, the second tier is only Nova, Davis and Mercer. There is a huge gap after Mercer to the third tier of eight teams. William and Mary is barely holding on to the 15th position in the Cat-P. They likely would drop out if I including the 15-18th teams in the Cat-P as URI, Richmond or Chattanooga might rate higher. Maybe next week.


CLICK TO ENLARGE




Big Sky Chaos

I know there can be mixed feelings about the results in the Big Sky every week. Nothing short of chaos happened last weekend. My prediction record went from 75% right to 66% with three upsets. Overall, the upsets were not helpful to the Cat’s SOS. I keep harping that with one FCS loss (a likely scenario) the Cats need a stronger SOS to nail the #2 seed. Needless to say, if teams drop into a muddled middle of the pack mentality in the Big Sky our SOS will suffer and our chances of getting the second seed at 11-1 may go to the wayside.

• Weber Fumblicity! – Simply follow the play by play. Unreal. Shades of the long snapper Grant in 2022. It appears Weber has fumbled away their playoff chances to a team with a multi-year losing streak.
o 1st drive – fumble at the 1, Touchback
o 3rd drive – fumble at the 1, Touchback.
o 7th drive – fumble
o 10th drive – fumble
o 13th drive - fumble
• Sac State Defenseless - Can’t anyone play defense against the Eagles? Sac gave up 286 yards on the ground. I didn’t
• Gris another 4th QTR escape – blah, blah, blah. I am not convinced Bobby should be as proud of his team as he says every week during the post-game press conference. Losing to NAU 13-3 at half time and 20-17 with 7 minutes left in the 4th quarter.
• PSU rises from the grave – Maybe ISU is not good but sure hurt our SOS. Suppose it won’t matter if we win this weekend because PSU’s win improves our SOS. But probably imperceptibly.

Big Sky Rest of the season

Below is my chart of predictions for all Big Sky teams. I was going to only include those with some sort of mathematical chance of making the playoffs but decided to go with the full Monty chart. Any team that cannot get to 7 D1 wins even by winning out is not in the chart. Frankly, it looks dismal for a number of teams. For what is worth, FCS Central website (si.com) puts the Bobcats as the first team with a lock on a playoff spot because we are the ONLY team in the FCS with 7 D1 wins. That all said, I don’t believe 7 D1 wins is a guarantee to a playoff spot this year for two reasons. One, the 12-game schedule means there will be a host of at large teams with 7 D1 wins; certainly way more than the 14 at large spots. There might be 20-25 teams with 7 D1 wins. Second, 7 D1 wins could mean 5 D1 losses. It is extremely unusual for a team with 5 D1 losses to make it into the playoffs. That said, my chart is based on the magical 7 wins, at least this week.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Here is my summary of Big Sky teams and their playoff chances.

LOCK

Cats are the only team in this category at this point. But not a true lock in my mind. Always the pessimist. However, we will call it good enough.

SHOULD BE IN

Davis leads this group with six D1 wins. Their schedule is tough with EWU, UM, MSU and Sac. But they will beat UNC and maybe 2 or 3 of the gauntlet. UM and Idaho have favorable schedules. Gris only need two wins to get to 7 and Idaho needs to get three wins. I think they will both get there. Just not sure either of them earns a top 8 seed and a first round bye unless there are LOTS of late season collapses among UCA, Mercer, Nova, SEMO, UIW, URI, USD and Tarleton State.

SLIM

Weber is holding on by a thread after losing last week. The only reason they are not in the Almost Zero category is that they ONLY need to win 4 of 5 games and have a signature win over the Gris. If somehow they get to 7 or God Bless them to 8 D1 wins, they could get an at-larger bid. But Weber’s chances are just barely the next category, which is….

ALMOST ZERO

The odds are higher Russia will surrender to Ukraine than Idaho State, NAU, Eastern or Sac State can get to 7 D1 wins. ISU and NAU have to win out against brutal schedules. Both of these teams have a D2 non-counter win. EWU and Sac both have to win 5 out 6 games which just seems unrealistic. Sac has to play Weber this week (which is a playoff elimination game), MSU and Davis. Not sure they can win any of those games. Eastern has to play Davis, Idaho, Cats and NAU. If they can win 3 of those 4, their defense will have risen from the ashes and they deserve to be in the playoffs.

OUT

Celebrating as the bottom feeders are PSU, UNC and Cal Poly. Really no surprise here. None of these teams will end with a winning record and it will be a race to the bottom – Even though Northern Colorado got their first victory last week, as did PSU. However, I see PSU as the one team who could play a spoiler roll in a number of their games. I do not see Cal Poly or UNC winning hardly at all.

Overall, this is not great as the Big Sky with only four teams in the playoffs means we have eaten our young. In fact, I am predicting only five Big Sky teams with a winning record. Even years, when the Big Sky had only four playoff teams, there were six teams with winning records most years. This year there may only four teams with a winning record. More parity in the Sky; more parity in the FCS.

CATS vs PSU

UP FACTORS
• Cats have the #1 offense in the FCS per my aggregate averages
• Our pass/run balance is much better this year
• Portland State has the 123rd defense out of 123 FCS teams! Giving up 566 yards per game. (A funny side note, the Big Sky 5 of the 25 worst defenses in the FCS AND 6 of the top 25 offenses in the FCS. Idaho State and Eastern Washington make both lists!)
• PSU gives up 236 yards per game on the ground.
• Cats have a top five defense.
• Cats know what they have to do.
• Cats are good. PSU is not.

DOWN FACTORS

• Injuries to Cats defense – Danny O; Schmidt; Caden Dowler. We have won without some of these guys but not without all of them.
• Typical Trap game – See Weber last week and Abilene Christian. Say all you want about 1-0, but human nature is to have a letdown after a big game.
• PSU’s QB. He was not only Big Sky Offensive player of the week; he was the national offensive player of the week. The dude can run when given a chance. He was only the 3rd QB in the Big Sky to have a 200/200 game in last 6 years.

It is a must win for the Cats because we have to win the easy games – PSU and EWU and maybe Sac State. Of course, nothing we don’t already know!

GO CATS!

[Cledus]

Welp, Villanova's getting pummeled by Maine. They're down 28-0 early in the 2nd quarter. There's a lot of game left but this one will probably bear fruit for MSU.

[Catprint]

WEEK 9 –Poll Shake up; MFVC Playoff Impacts; Big Sky Games

Was going to write the post in two parts but just didn’t work out. Taking a 4-day vacation over the bye week so I needed to get it done.

Who Lost from our list this week

Pretty good showing compared to last week. We got three Top Ten teams losing and the strengthening of our SOS due to Maine’s victory. We all need to root for Maine the rest of the way because overcoming NDSU’s SOS if they win out is almost impossible.

• Nova @ Maine –NOVA to LOSE – GOT IT.
• URI @ New Hampshire– URI TO LOSE. MISSED IT
• Wofford @ Chattanooga –CHAT TO LOSE. MISSED IT
• Mercer @ Samford – MERCER TO LOSE. GOT IT. Maybe Mercer’s D is not so good?
• Delaware @ Richmond – RICHMOND TO LOSE. MISSED IT. At least Delaware dropped from the ranks of undefeated.
• McNeese State @ UIW – UIW TO LOSE. MISSED IT. McNeese State is fading fast. There goes our Gris-McDowell playoff matchup
• SDSU @ NDSU – SDSU TO LOSE. GOT IT. Still not sure what is best for Cats. See notes later.

Who we want to lose this week

Tons of great games on the slate where a top 15 team could be upset in conference play. Here are the most likely ones that benefit the Cats.

• Gardner-Webb @ SEMO – Really need to get SEMO an FCS loss. Just not many places on the schedule for it to happen. It’s either here or last game of the season against Tennessee State (who we really don’t want to see ranked come end of the season so it knocks down NDSU SOS. Can we have our cake and eat it too?) – SEMO to LOSE.

• Maine @ Rhode Island – The CAA is a mess and maybe it will get worse. 8 teams are still vying for the title! This game is another payout. Maine wins and we get a better SOS. URI loses and they finally suffer an FCS loss. I think Maine can do it – URI to LOSE.

• New Hampshire @ Nova – Not sure what is best here. A loss by UNH takes them out of the playoff field. A loss by Nova pretty much takes them out of the Top 8 for rest of the season. Ok, NOVA to LOSE

• W& M @ Stony Brook – Ok, one more CAA game. Both teams are 5-2 and 2-1 in the conference. Stony Brook is not even ranked and we still hold a grudge against W&M for blaming their 55-7 drubbing on the field conditions. – W&M to LOSE.

• WCU @ Mercer – This is a big game and tough call. WCU wins that knocks Mercer out of title race and drops them below top 15. But WCU wins makes Gris SOS look better and we don’t want that either… Another tough one. – WCU to LOSE.

• ETSU @ Wofford – Wofford did it once this year. See if they can do it again. ETSU is borderline Top 16 seed by end of the season – ETSU to LOSE.

• UIW @ SELA – I personally don’t like UIW. Not sure why not but partly because they have been cocky in the past. Somebody has to win the Southland but we don’t’ want to have to face a strong UIW in the early rounds. UIW to LOSE.

• South Dakota @ SDSU – I layout the overall MVFC plan later in part II of this week’s post. This is the only game that has potential consequences this week. I will explain later – USD to LOSE.

CAT-P CHART and DISCUSSION

The Cat-P follows the polls fairly closely. What the poll does better than the STATS Poll is show the true gap in teams based on a variety of inputs. First, the top five teams have clear separation from the next group. There is 2.67 points between number 5 (UC Davis) and number 6 (SEMO). There is only 3.97 points difference between #1 and #5 which is about what we would expect. Second the Cats secured a clear #2 position with a score of 1.87. We are only about a half a point behind NDSU but over 1 point ahead of SDSU. At this point, the competition for the #1 seed is heating up.

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Offense and Defense Top Teams

With the huge number of points and yards given up by Mercer in the Stamford game and the very low scoring NDSU-SDSU game, the Cats have completed the Trifecta in my aggregate stats. First, we are the number one offense and this is not even close. We have a score of 1.75 which means our average rank across the four categories is slightly less than 2. The next closest is South Dakota at 8.75 and then Central Arkansas at 9.75. No one else breaks into single digits and only two teams (Gris and NDSU) have teen rankings.

On the defense side of the house, we dethroned both Mercer and USD who have held the top spots for weeks. We actually tied USD with both of us ranking at 10.75. Then in the aggregate of offense and defense, The Cats have an average of 6.25 and South Dakota is second and NDSU is third. The next four/five games for these ranked teams will result in some cross playing and other challenging games resulting in knocking down everyone’s ranking. Usually, the teams that pull ahead are the top Pioneer league platers and Ivy League teams who have easy schedules and can still run up the points against inferior clients.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Big Sky Games discussion and Playoff Predictions

In last week’s games, I was 5-0 in my predictions and am 17-6 (nearly 75%) for the season. This is way above the average. But there are still 5 weeks to go so I easily could drop to a more reasonable 60% guess rate. I think the favored team won every game. Here are some thoughts on games that impact the Cats.

• Weber @ Sac State: Both teams put up some points and both had over 500 yards of offense. Sac State seems pass happy which may bring trouble to the Cats secondary. However, in the last couple of games Sac State has shown no semblance of a rushing defense giving up over 600 yards rushing in two games. Sure, seems like a good match up for the Cats unless Sac suddenly develops a front 7.
• Davis @ Eastern: We play both teams in November and both teams like to push the offense. Weber is #14 in the FCS and Davis #11. Davis actually has the #2 passing offense when it comes to YPG. They put 329 yards on Eastern. Neither team showed much propensity for defense and the score reflected this. The Eagles simply hope to score more than their opponents given they can’t seem to stop anyone. What happens with these teams meet a team with a defense? I think the Eagles are in trouble. However, Davis held its own (and won) against the mighty Idaho defense. (EMOJI). I am in the short run more worried about stopping the Eagles explosive pass plays to Chisolm. Could be a lot of PI’s when playing EWU. More later when the game is closer.

Playoff Status for the Big Sky

I have decided for purely argumentative purposes to push the lock category to eight wins. With 12 games this year, I passionately believe there will be a bushel of teams with 7 wins and some will be left out of the bracket. A Big Sky team with 7 D-I wins and five losses is by no means a lock for a playoff spot.

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LOCK (1)

Cats are the only team in the country with eight D-1 wins.

SHOULD BE IN (3)

1) Davis still leads this group with 7 D1 wins but Davis knows 7 wins will not guarantee a playoff spot (See 2023 Season). They got by Eastern but still have UM, MSU and Sac State to finish the season. Win out and they are the Big Sky champion but then so is MSU or the Gris.
2) Gris have a very favorable schedule and per Skyline Sports interviews with players and coaches, “Our best football is ahead of us.” That said, the Gris only need two wins to get to 7 and 3 wins for a lock. The Gris ability to get a Top 8 seed improved with losses by Villanova and Mercer last week. And just for the fun of it, it is reasonably possible the Gris get to the Brawl 6-1 in the conference and the winner takes the title. Think about that scenario.
3) Idaho needs to get two more wins to get to seven wins and three to eight wins. They play Eastern, PSU, Weber, and Idaho State. Final record of 8-4 or even 9-3 seems attainable.

SLIM (1)

1) Sac State replaced Weber in the slim category due to their victory last week. But at 3-4 Sac state really needs to win out to guarantee a playoff spot. With 3 victories, they get to 7 wins but that seems like a long shot this year to secure a playoff spot. With MSU and Davis on the schedule, I don’t see it happening. But it is the Big Sky and parity rules.

ALMOST ZERO – Must Win Out (3)

These last three teams will eat their young. Based on the remaining schedule, these teams can only reach seven wins. To make the playoffs, a whole lot of bad things have to happen to many other teams. Plus Weber plays NAU and NAU plays Eastern so it is likely self-elimination. But it is not over till the fat lady sings.

1) Weber may have the best chance as they play NAU, ISU, Idaho, and Cal Poly. I could see a way to win all four games… well, ok not the way they played the last two games.
2) NAU is still an enigma. They are 4-4 but have a D2 non-counter game. They play Weber, Cal Poly, UNC and Eastern. Don’t see them winning all these games.
3) Eastern – Not sure why I even have them on the list. They have to win FIVE, count them – 5, games including against Idaho, MSU and NAU. If they can win five in a row after starting 2-5, well they need to be in the playoffs. But the Best they can hope for is a new coach next year. I think they finish 4-8 or 5-7.

OUT (4)

Adding to the 3 and out group is now Idaho State. All of these teams now are only playing to be spoilers and setting themselves up for next year. My predicted order of finish is PSU, UNC, ISU, and Cal Poly but that is nothing but a wing and a prayer. I am hoping Barney Ball has some tricks up his sleeve and PSU can knock off Sac State or the Gris.

Overall, still looks like this is not great as the Big Sky has only four teams likely to be in the playoffs. In fact, I am predicting only five Big Sky teams with a winning record. Even years, when the Big Sky had only four playoff teams, there were six teams with winning records most years. This year there may only be four teams with a winning record. More parity in the Sky; more parity in the FCS.


Playoff Top Teams and Positions – by Conference

MVFC –Pray for miracles?

Before I look at each conference and how many playoff bids each conference will get this year, I want to look at what I consider the best possible win/loss scenario for the top teams that is at least somewhat realistic. Like I am not expecting Murray state to beat the Bison or anything like that. I am looking at the top 4 teams in the MVFC and coming up with what I think is realistic for the Cats to get the #1 seed or the #2 seed if the Cats drop one game. (I am still looking at scenarios where the Cats lose one game but still secure the #2 seed.)

• SDSU – Beat USD; Beat UND, Lose to MOST – 2 FCS losses

The Jacks have the toughest schedule of these four teams. They still have to play South Dakota (#4); North Dakota (#7) and Missouri State (who would be a top 15 team if they qualified for the polls). I think what is best for the Cats is for SDSU to beat USD and UND. This will knock back USD and UND. A 2 loss SDSU would be more like a 5-7 seed. We want to avoid the Jacks in the semis in an ideal scenario. A slight alternative is for Jacks to win out and likely secure the #3 seed. That still works well.

My view is the Jacks do not look as strong everyone seems to place them on the treadmill. At 5-2, they only have 4 FCS wins and they don’t seem as dominant. Now, that said I am not betting against the Jacks. I would expect them to beat Murray State; SIU and UND with no real issues. Even if they drop one game to MOST or USD, Jacks will be 9-3 with 8 D1 wins. This will get them a top 8 seed, just pray it is not #7 or #8.

• NDSU – Lose to USD, Beat MOST – 1 FCS Loss (too much to ask for two)

The Bison are the king of the mountain right now. If they win out, they are an odds-on favorite to be placed in the #1 seed. Sam Herder in his this weeks podcast thought the only way for the Cats to get the top seed if NDSU wins out is if a) The Cats win out; b) The Cats dominate every game by 25-30 points (take note on the downsides of putting in 2nd and 3rd team too early in the game) and c) NDSU has a couple of flat victories where they just squeak by.

My miracle is pretty simple and possible. In the last game of the regular season, NDSU drops a game to USD in Vermillion. This would be the same day the Cats crush the Gris and end up 12-0. We definitely get the #1 seed in this scenario. However, I don’t feel very good about NDSU losing one of their last four games.

• USD – Lose to SDSU; Beat NDSU, Lose to UND – 2 FCS Losses

We want each of the top 4 teams from the MVFC to have 2 FCS losses except NDSU who we hope has at least one FCS loss. This leaves us looking at South Dakota and how good are they really. If you look at some of the stats, suddenly the Yotes are really good. In the Catprint Aggregate Stats, the Yotes are the number 2 offense and are tied with the Cats for the number 1 defense. Sure, seems that South Dakota is a top 4 team in the country. How do we get them to have 2 FCS losses? Sure, seems difficult to see them dropping two games. This weekend’s game is really the standard. I can’t see them beating SDSU at Brookings.

• UND – Lose to SDSU, Beat South Dakota and ISU – 2 FCS losses

So given the schedule I laid out, this leaves UND losing to SDSU and winning their other games. So this leaves the Fighting Hawks could end up 9-3 with 2 FCS losses. This isn’t good enough to be a Top 4 but might get them a seed right around the 8th seed.

Next week, I will have my seeding bracket and will show where I place these four teams as well as the top Big Sky teams.


Conference BIds and At-Large Seeds

Here is a quick view of the conferences and how many teams get in from each conference. There are some great write ups by Sam @ Hero Sports or Tim Rosario @ FCS Central with an in-depth analysis of which teams are likely to get in the playoffs.

FCS Playoffs
• 10 Auto Bids with Conference Champion
• 14 At Large bids
• 16 seeded teams
• Top 8 seeded teams get a first-round bye
• Seeds 9-16 host a first-round game.
• The opponents for seeds 9-16 will be regionalized to avoid travel costs.
• No bids will be considered in who gets a home game.

13 Conferences – Bids for each conference

Here is a very quick overview of the playoff teams. No bracket till next week. Maybe not then either. While some may think not the way to go, I keep looking at the most favorable matchups for MSU to get to the Natty. For example, the absolute best/worst seeding would look like this - 1st – MSU; 2nd- NDSU; 4th – Idaho; 8th – SDSU; 16th – UM. This would be an unreal gauntlet to a Natty. Is it likely? No, but it is not out of the question. I could write up a scenario in about 30 minutes that would be realistic and place these four teams in the places I have laid out. The disadvantage of the seeding is that the #16th seed is not always what the #1 seed got as the first match up. Often, regionalization in the first round would put #18 vs #24 and then the winner would play number #1 no matter about regionalization because the committee was giving the #1 seed the easiest first round game.

• No bid
o Ivy League
o MEAC
o SWAC (with possible exception of FAMU)

• 1 Bid – Conference Champion Only
o NEC
o Patriot
o Pioneer

• 2 Bid - One At-Large - Big Maybe
o Big South – SEMO and Tennessee State
o Southland – UIW and SELA

• 3 Bid
o CAA – Spin a chart – Pick 3 out of Nova, URI, UNH, W&M, Maine, Stony Brook, Monmouth
o Southern – Mercer, Western Carolina, and Chattanooga
o UAC – Tarleton, Abilene Christian, and Central Arkansas

• 4 Bid or possibly 5
o MVFC – NDSU, SDSU, USD, UND
o Big Sky – MSU, UCD, UM, Idaho

Big Sky Games this week

It is an exceptionally light slate of games again this week. Last week, 2 teams had a bye (UNC and the Gris); this week 6 teams have a bye- MSU, Davis, Weber, NAU, PSU and Cal Poly. Idaho and ISU have their bye the week after while Sac State and Eastern had their bye week early in the season. With only three games on the docket, not much to discuss but all three games have some playoff ramifications. Let’s see if I can maintain my 75% pick-em success!

• UM @ UNC – Can UNC pull off two upsets in a row? Not much of a chance in my mind. The bigger question is whether the Gris have another close game. Other than the Moorehead State game, look at the Gris’ 4 other wins
o MOST – Struggle much of the second half and win by 5
o WCU – Trailing for two and half quarters, the Gris scored 4 times in the second half to pull away.
o Eastern- Gris build a large lead (17 points twice) and squander it in their inability to stop Eastern and it is only a 3-point game with 5 minutes left.
o NAU – Again trailing for three and a half quarters, Gris scored three times and put some distance on the scoreboard. But the game was closer than the score.
So how good are the Gris? No dominant wins. No consistent games. But they are sitting right behind the leaders in the conference. Gris needs to beat UNC by 20-30 points to show there are for real. Gris to Win but not sure by 20.

• Sac State @ Idaho State – Perhaps the biggest disappointment of the season, Sac State is pinning to joining the Pac 7.5 with all of their 35 million NIL money (which is all smoke and mirrors). We really need Sac State to win a couple of games with a chance they are ranked when they come to Bozeman. I think they get it done but I am not seeing much defense again in this game. Sac State by 10 in a shootout.

• Eastern @ Idaho – This is the big game of the weekend. Does Eastern have any legs against that depleted Idaho defense? Does Idaho have any offensive firepower in their anemic offense (66th in my aggregate stats). Eastern is in the top 20 in scoring offense and total offense. They seem to be able to move the ball down the field with both passing and rushing. Idaho’s defense is suspect. I doubt it is as good as the podcasters said in the first part of the season: Elite; Lights Out; dominate. In the last four games, Idaho has given up 28, 17, 38 and 29 for a 28 point average. Not good enough to win most games. I want Idaho to win to improve our SOS but my heart says Idaho could stumble. But I am still holding on to my original prediction – Idaho to win 35-31.


That’s a Wrap – Go Cats!!

[catatac]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

[coloradocat]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

I almost wonder if we're better off getting the 2 seed and facing SDSU at home and hoping someone can pull off a huge upset against NDSU in Fargo. The upside is we could potentially only have to play one of the teams and it would be at home. The downside is the upset doesn't happen and we have to beat both teams back to back.

[ClowderUp]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

Normally I would agree with this, but this year could produce a #4/#5 team that is from a weaker conference and a weaker resume. I expect a DSU at the #3, but some bad team like SEMO or similar may sneak into the #4. We should maximize our chances to play in Frisco any possible way.

[CodyCat]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

I almost wonder if we're better off getting the 2 seed and facing SDSU at home and hoping someone can pull off a huge upset against NDSU in Fargo. The upside is we could potentially only have to play one of the teams and it would be at home. The downside is the upset doesn't happen and we have to beat both teams back to back.

IF NDSU gets the #1 seed, I just dont know who would have a punchers chance at knocking them off in Fargo. Yes, upsets happen, and anybody can beat anybody on any given day. But, the likelyhood of that seems almost non existent. Who are the teams that would have a chance? Nobody outside of MSU in the Big Sky. Out of the MVFC, SDSU and USD. I think USD is a huge maybe.

[coloradocat]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

I almost wonder if we're better off getting the 2 seed and facing SDSU at home and hoping someone can pull off a huge upset against NDSU in Fargo. The upside is we could potentially only have to play one of the teams and it would be at home. The downside is the upset doesn't happen and we have to beat both teams back to back.

IF NDSU gets the #1 seed, I just dont know who would have a punchers chance at knocking them off in Fargo. Yes, upsets happen, and anybody can beat anybody on any given day. But, the likelyhood of that seems almost non existent. Who are the teams that would have a chance? Nobody outside of MSU in the Big Sky. Out of the MVFC, SDSU and USD. I think USD is a huge maybe.

That's true. This is not the year to hope for an upset.

[BleedingBLue]

Great info! For what it's worth, it makes zero difference to me whether the Cats are the #1 or #2 seed, as long as it's one of them. Zero. Yes I know there would be a slight advantage of 1 versus 2, in terms of the bracket and the potential of playing just one versus two of the DSUs, but again, I don't care. If the Cats can't beat any team in the country in Bozeman, where we have a huge advantage, we don't deserve to make it to Frisco. Then if we can't beat any team in the country on a neutral field, we don't deserve the title. Just my opinions of course.

I almost wonder if we're better off getting the 2 seed and facing SDSU at home and hoping someone can pull off a huge upset against NDSU in Fargo. The upside is we could potentially only have to play one of the teams and it would be at home. The downside is the upset doesn't happen and we have to beat both teams back to back.

IF NDSU gets the #1 seed, I just dont know who would have a punchers chance at knocking them off in Fargo. Yes, upsets happen, and anybody can beat anybody on any given day. But, the likelyhood of that seems almost non existent. Who are the teams that would have a chance? Nobody outside of MSU in the Big Sky. Out of the MVFC, SDSU and USD. I think USD is a huge maybe.

UIW almost did it a couple years ago, so it's entirely possible. I think a solid running team would have a chance. The NDSU D has not been good against the run this year.

[Monymony]

I could see NDSU dropping one. QB1 might still be dealing w/ ankle problems and QB2 (the runner) has an injury and they have other injuries on defense that were covered heavily before SDSU. Not sure what they will look like com USD but I believe that will be a good game.

The gris should lay it on UNCO as I doubt UNCO will have any offense with their 3rd string qb and I think the gris can stop their run game. Gris offense should be able to do whatever they want against that defense. I really didn’t expect this after the Weber loss but the gris have a legit shot at not only winning the conference and getting a high seed. But they will have to beat UCD and come to Bozeman and attempt to stuff us. These last couple of weeks are going to be very interesting.

[rfischer94]

I could see NDSU dropping one. QB1 might still be dealing w/ ankle problems and QB2 (the runner) has an injury and they have other injuries on defense that were covered heavily before SDSU. Not sure what they will look like com USD but I believe that will be a good game.

The gris should lay it on UNCO as I doubt UNCO will have any offense with their 3rd string qb and I think the gris can stop their run game. Gris offense should be able to do whatever they want against that defense. I really didn’t expect this after the Weber loss but the gris have a legit shot at not only winning the conference and getting a high seed. But they will have to beat UCD and come to Bozeman and attempt to stuff us. These last couple of weeks are going to be very interesting.

NDSU's QB2 is out for the season. https://www.wdayradionow.com/sports/bis ... ckrabbits/

[onceacat]

@Catprint Why do you think the committee would value a win over New Mexico greater than a Marker win and a much better SOS (this applies regardless of who wins on Saturday)? The committee likely believes that both DSUs are better than New Mexico so our win would be worth less than the Marker winner.

Doing my best to channel my alter ego - Mr. Optimism. I just want to believe 12-0 and an FBS win is rewarded with the #1 seed. However, I was listening to Sam Herder and Zach McKinnell tonight and their perspective of the #1 and #2 seed. They looked at the Marker game possible outcomes and felt the Cats have a great chance to be #1 or #2 seed if we win out. However, they agree if SDSU wins the Marker Game and wins out, SDSU is more likely to get the #1 seed due to same factors I raised (before listening to their podcast) - 1) Best SOS; 2) 2 year champion; 3) more ranked wins. It was funny that Sam mentions how 1) Cat's fans don't believe we will get the #1 seed due to bias in favor of DSU's and 2) the committee will be sure that the DSUs are on opposite sides of the bracket. Sam points out that SDSU fans always felt there was an NDSU bias in the 2010's. We all tend to think we are getting the short end of the stick. Just human nature.

As far as the seeding, honestly, who gets #1 or #2 is difficult to determine in certain win out scenarios. Maybe we won't see that because all the top teams get a loss (see scenario #5) but then the same question is raised. I am tending to change my mind on who I want to win the Marker game. I am leaning to the best outcome is a close win by NDSU. This gives a 12-0 MSU team a little better edge to get the #1 seed in my mind.

Some my ask, what difference does it mean to get the #1 vs #2 seed? Both teams get three home games. What's the big deal. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind at Brookings. Look at SDSU's total annihilation of UAlbany. It is quite possible the #4 seed this year will be a weaker team than the top 3 seeds (or #4 will be upset like Idaho was last year). Being the #2 seed most likely gives us a semi-final game against a DSU at home. Being #1 will give us a semi-final against a team that likely has not been to the semi's ever or not for many years. This is a significant advantage in my mine.

Still possible they seed the DSU'S at 2 and 4 or 3 and 4 to keep on opposite sides of bracket so a 1 doesn't guarantee we miss either of them.

Of course the DSUs are going to be on opposite sides of the bracket. Every single committee in every single sport would do that every single time.

Thats the normal thing to do, barring some weird collapse by one of the two teams.

There are 3 teams in FCS clearly better than the rest. Two of them have already played. So EVERY committee doing a tournament bracket in every sport is going to do everything reasonable to keep them from meeting abnormally early.

Thats how tournaments are run.