2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[BleedingBLue]

One point on the seeding. If NDSU were to beat SDSU and SDSU goes 10-2, they have no claim whatsoever to a top 2 seed if the Cats are 12-0 or 11-1 as they would be 9-2 against DI opponents since they beat DII Augustana early in the year.

[Catprint]

The seeding conundrum of SDSU and NDSU

I know it is early in the season but I see potential roadblock to the Cats getting a number 1 or number 2 seed and hosting three playoff games. First, looking at NDSU, I don’t see them less dominating on defense as some sportswriters and commentators have discussed after the first three games. Based on their schedule, NDSU will dominate every MVFC team they play except SDSU. And there is no way SDSU has lost a step. I anticipate the winner of The Dakota Marker game will end the season 11-1 with NO FCS losses. The loser of the Marker game will end up 10-2 with ONE FCS loss to the #1 team in the country.

I know this is controversial but this leaves everyone else out in the cold including the Cats. Because in my view, if the Cats have 1 FCS loss (the most likely scenario), they will get a 3 or 4 seed. However, even if the Cats are 12-0, I am not sure that gives them a #1 or #2 seed. I know most fans will say how can you NOT give a 12-0 team a #1 or #2 seed? For the same reason Mercer will not get a Top 4 seed if they go 12-0: Strength of Schedule. SDSU currently has the #1 toughest future SOS and NDSU has the #4 toughest. MSU has #26 and Mercer has the #71. We all know SOS is important in the seeding of playoff teams. It is the main reason the Cats got a #6 seed last year (vs. no seed) when we were 8-3 and NDSU got the #3 seed over the Cats in 2022. I think the best seed we can hope for is #3 short of a massive upset to SDSU or NDSU during the season. It actually frustrates me immensely that SDSU/NDSU have such a stranglehold on the top seeds and the Natty. In the last 12 years, NDSU/SDSU have won 11 of 12 Natty’s. (I don’t count the 2020 season) and the only exception is JMU (who is currently 4-1 in the FBS). It is the way.


Go Cats!

Strength of schedule should only count with same or possibly 1 loss different in records. If you play harder teams but lose you shouldn't move ahead of someone who wins all games. Say NDSU has losses to average Colorado and SDSU. IF Big Sky is 2nd best conference an FBS win and undefeated in Conference they have to be at least 2. Otherwise just anoint MVC the Champs each year.

I get it. One loss difference. My main reference is if Cats have 1 FCS loss this year. This is exactly what happened in 2022. Cats had NO FCS losses and 1 FBS loss while NDSU had ONE FCS loss and 1 FBS loss. We got the #4 seed and NDSU got the #3 seed based on SOS and body of work. I have a hard time thinking the committee would not give a 12-0 MSU team the #2 seed over a 10-2 NDSU or 10-2 SDSU team. The reality is SDSU has a DII win so that is a non-counter. I do think if SDSU loses the Dakota Marker and we win out; we would get the #2 seed. And if MSU has only 1 loss - say to Idaho or UC Davis, we could still get the #2 seed over SDSU (but I think it would be close). My main concern is with NDSU losing the Dakota Marker in a very close game. NDSU's close loss to Colorado (if they end up a Top 25 team or close to it) would rate higher than our FBS to a bottom feeder(although the MWC seems to be full of bottom feeders!) and then the committee looks at NDSU's body of work in the FCS as superior to ours (which it could very well be). Could it happen? Don't know. Maybe low probability but I don't think zero.

[94VegasCat]

The seeding conundrum of SDSU and NDSU

I know it is early in the season but I see potential roadblock to the Cats getting a number 1 or number 2 seed and hosting three playoff games. First, looking at NDSU, I don’t see them less dominating on defense as some sportswriters and commentators have discussed after the first three games. Based on their schedule, NDSU will dominate every MVFC team they play except SDSU. And there is no way SDSU has lost a step. I anticipate the winner of The Dakota Marker game will end the season 11-1 with NO FCS losses. The loser of the Marker game will end up 10-2 with ONE FCS loss to the #1 team in the country.

I know this is controversial but this leaves everyone else out in the cold including the Cats. Because in my view, if the Cats have 1 FCS loss (the most likely scenario), they will get a 3 or 4 seed. However, even if the Cats are 12-0, I am not sure that gives them a #1 or #2 seed. I know most fans will say how can you NOT give a 12-0 team a #1 or #2 seed? For the same reason Mercer will not get a Top 4 seed if they go 12-0: Strength of Schedule. SDSU currently has the #1 toughest future SOS and NDSU has the #4 toughest. MSU has #26 and Mercer has the #71. We all know SOS is important in the seeding of playoff teams. It is the main reason the Cats got a #6 seed last year (vs. no seed) when we were 8-3 and NDSU got the #3 seed over the Cats in 2022. I think the best seed we can hope for is #3 short of a massive upset to SDSU or NDSU during the season. It actually frustrates me immensely that SDSU/NDSU have such a stranglehold on the top seeds and the Natty. In the last 12 years, NDSU/SDSU have won 11 of 12 Natty’s. (I don’t count the 2020 season) and the only exception is JMU (who is currently 4-1 in the FBS). It is the way.


Go Cats!

Strength of schedule should only count with same or possibly 1 loss different in records. If you play harder teams but lose you shouldn't move ahead of someone who wins all games. Say NDSU has losses to average Colorado and SDSU. IF Big Sky is 2nd best conference an FBS win and undefeated in Conference they have to be at least 2. Otherwise just anoint MVC the Champs each year.

I get it. One loss difference. My main reference is if Cats have 1 FCS loss this year. This is exactly what happened in 2022. Cats had NO FCS losses and 1 FBS loss while NDSU had ONE FCS loss and 1 FBS loss. We got the #4 seed and NDSU got the #3 seed based on SOS and body of work. I have a hard time thinking the committee would not give a 12-0 MSU team the #2 seed over a 10-2 NDSU or 10-2 SDSU team. The reality is SDSU has a DII win so that is a non-counter. I do think if SDSU loses the Dakota Marker and we win out; we would get the #2 seed. And if MSU has only 1 loss - say to Idaho or UC Davis, we could still get the #2 seed over SDSU (but I think it would be close). My main concern is with NDSU losing the Dakota Marker in a very close game. NDSU's close loss to Colorado (if they end up a Top 25 team or close to it) would rate higher than our FBS to a bottom feeder(although the MWC seems to be full of bottom feeders!) and then the committee looks at NDSU's body of work in the FCS as superior to ours (which it could very well be). Could it happen? Don't know. Maybe low probability but I don't think zero.

I have a hard time thinking the committee would not give a 12-0 MSU team the #2 seed over a 10-2 NDSU or 10-2 SDSU

Does MSU at 12-0 not get the #1 seed in this scenario?

[Catprint]

The seeding conundrum of SDSU and NDSU

I know it is early in the season but I see potential roadblock to the Cats getting a number 1 or number 2 seed and hosting three playoff games. First, looking at NDSU, I don’t see them less dominating on defense as some sportswriters and commentators have discussed after the first three games. Based on their schedule, NDSU will dominate every MVFC team they play except SDSU. And there is no way SDSU has lost a step. I anticipate the winner of The Dakota Marker game will end the season 11-1 with NO FCS losses. The loser of the Marker game will end up 10-2 with ONE FCS loss to the #1 team in the country.

I know this is controversial but this leaves everyone else out in the cold including the Cats. Because in my view, if the Cats have 1 FCS loss (the most likely scenario), they will get a 3 or 4 seed. However, even if the Cats are 12-0, I am not sure that gives them a #1 or #2 seed. I know most fans will say how can you NOT give a 12-0 team a #1 or #2 seed? For the same reason Mercer will not get a Top 4 seed if they go 12-0: Strength of Schedule. SDSU currently has the #1 toughest future SOS and NDSU has the #4 toughest. MSU has #26 and Mercer has the #71. We all know SOS is important in the seeding of playoff teams. It is the main reason the Cats got a #6 seed last year (vs. no seed) when we were 8-3 and NDSU got the #3 seed over the Cats in 2022. I think the best seed we can hope for is #3 short of a massive upset to SDSU or NDSU during the season. It actually frustrates me immensely that SDSU/NDSU have such a stranglehold on the top seeds and the Natty. In the last 12 years, NDSU/SDSU have won 11 of 12 Natty’s. (I don’t count the 2020 season) and the only exception is JMU (who is currently 4-1 in the FBS). It is the way.


Go Cats!

Strength of schedule should only count with same or possibly 1 loss different in records. If you play harder teams but lose you shouldn't move ahead of someone who wins all games. Say NDSU has losses to average Colorado and SDSU. IF Big Sky is 2nd best conference an FBS win and undefeated in Conference they have to be at least 2. Otherwise just anoint MVC the Champs each year.

I get it. One loss difference. My main reference is if Cats have 1 FCS loss this year. This is exactly what happened in 2022. Cats had NO FCS losses and 1 FBS loss while NDSU had ONE FCS loss and 1 FBS loss. We got the #4 seed and NDSU got the #3 seed based on SOS and body of work. I have a hard time thinking the committee would not give a 12-0 MSU team the #2 seed over a 10-2 NDSU or 10-2 SDSU team. The reality is SDSU has a DII win so that is a non-counter. I do think if SDSU loses the Dakota Marker and we win out; we would get the #2 seed. And if MSU has only 1 loss - say to Idaho or UC Davis, we could still get the #2 seed over SDSU (but I think it would be close). My main concern is with NDSU losing the Dakota Marker in a very close game. NDSU's close loss to Colorado (if they end up a Top 25 team or close to it) would rate higher than our FBS to a bottom feeder(although the MWC seems to be full of bottom feeders!) and then the committee looks at NDSU's body of work in the FCS as superior to ours (which it could very well be). Could it happen? Don't know. Maybe low probability but I don't think zero.

I have a hard time thinking the committee would not give a 12-0 MSU team the #2 seed over a 10-2 NDSU or 10-2 SDSU

Does MSU at 12-0 not get the #1 seed in this scenario?

I attempted to clarify without much luck. First, I believe the most likely scenario is the Cats are 11-1. In that scenario, i think it is quite possible we get the #3 seed over a NDSU at 10-2 with a) a Top 4 SOS; b) a close loss to the #1 seed (SDSU) and c) a close loss to a potential Top 25 FBS team (Colorado).

In the less likely scenario that the Cats are 12-0, I do think it is highly likely but not a given that we get the #2 seed. Its just the committee has guidelines. 1) An FBS loss should not count against you. Therefore in the committee's eyes, NDSU is 10-1 and Cats are 11-0 against the FCS 2) The quality of the FBS win or loss can be taken into count. Our UNM win is not great. 3) SOS and body of work is huge and it is clearly not without precedent that a 1-loss FCS team has gotten a higher seed than a zero loss FCS team (See my notes about 2022). I think it is difficult to imagine the committee not giving the Cats the #2 seed but I think it is possible.

[Catprint]

Week 7 – Part II Who Loses; Big Sky Predictions; Idaho-Cats

Late this week with Part II. Never any reason other than life. Its Friday night and tomorrow is biggest game of the season. Can hardly wait. Let’s look at a few of our stats/game results

Who we wanted to lose – Week 6

Last week was full of upsets and certainly a number of them went the Cats way in terms of opening up opportunities for Top seeds.

• SEMO @ Eastern Illinois –SEMO TO LOSE. – Missed it

• Nova @ Stony Brook –NOVA TO LOSE. Missed it

• William & Mary @ Towson – W&M TO LOSE. GOT IT

• UND @ NDSU –NDSU TO LOSE. Missed it

• SDSU @ UNI –SDSU TO LOSE. Missed it

• Chattanooga @ ETSU (Forgot to pick but it was ETSU TO LOSE) – GOT IT

• UCA @ Abilene Christian –UCA TO LOSE. GOT IT

Out of seven non-Big Sky “want to lose” picks, we got 3 of them including two that will be immensely helpful to the CATS. UCA needed to lose as their schedule is super easy after this week and W&M’s loss helps line up the CAA for only 1 possible Top 8 seed.

Week 7 - Who to we want to lose

Who would help the Cats seeding options if they could go down this week? Few ranked on ranked games (Only two) but that leaves room for more innovative upsets that damage the seeding options of teams ranked 5 to 15.

• Tennessee Tech @ SEMO – Back to wanting SEMO to be knocked off. They easily could be 11-1, undefeated against the FCS. This game is one of only a couple of games they could lose so we need SEMO TO LOSE.

• Brown @ URI – Only 8 of the 16 CAA teams are in action this week so not much to pick from. URI is 4-1 and the bigger mess is created around the CAA, the better. URI TO LOSE.

• Missouri State @ Illinois State – MOST is transitioning to FBS so their record is of no concern. Illinois State seems like they could be the race for a top seed if they win out. ISU TO LOSE.

• NDSU @ SIU – SIU was looking good until QB went down. Do they really have a chance to win? Mayb e – they are at home; NDSU could be looking to next week playing SDSU. There is always hope. NDSU TO LOSE.

• Princeton @ Mercer – Mercer is 5-0; Princeton is well I don’t know what. Could they pull the upset? Suppose maybe. I listed this one because every week we want MERCER TO LOSE.

• Nicholls @ UIW – Both teams teetering on a 9-16 seed. UIW has a really easy path to a 9-3 or 10-2 season. That would put them in the Top 8 discussion. UIW TO LOSE.


CAT-P – Week 7

Each week of the last 4 there has been a clear three tier layout among the top 15 teams. There have been three or four near the top; then a middle group at least 2 points lower in rank followed by 5 or 6 teams who were at least 2 points lower than the middle tier. However, parity and upsets has closed the gap. There is still the upper tier of SDSU, NDSU, MSU and USD (who replaced Idaho who had replaced Montana). However, the middle and lower tier are much closer together. I still consider Nova, Idaho, Davis, and Mercer to be in that second tier but the point spread at the edges is narrower.

MSU still sits at number three with the gap now larger between NDSU and MSU (0.57). This reflects NDSUs beatdown of the Fighting Hawks and the Cats poor SOS. If the Cats win this weekend, the gap may close up again. But I don’t expect very many voters to rank the Cats as #2 until after the Dakota Marker game.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


BIG SKY GAMES – WEEK 7

As seems to be the case every week, the Sky is full of surprises. I will not try to repeat the rankings and analysis found in other good posts like Big Sky Power Rankings Week 6 by @MSU01

• PSU @ Idaho State – Two teams both trying to find their place in the league. Idaho State sneaked out a win against a poor Cal Poly team by throwing for 1,000 yards. Portland State may very well be the best 0-5 team in the FCS. Certainly, they should have beaten Davis last week. Not sure they will be the pushover in Portland when the Cats play them. PSU is already out of playoff contention. Idaho State will likely be out in the next 2 or 3 weeks but can still be a spoiler if they can maintain the high-octane offense.
o Desired Loser: PSU (So ISU win looks better on SOS).
o Predicted Score ISU 31 – PSU 24

• Cal Poly @ UC Davis – Really no contest here. Could Cal Poly pull it together and make it a game. Surprisingly, Cal Poly is in the middle of the pack in the Big Sky on defense just slightly worse than Davis. But on offense, they are near the bottom in all the categories and have not generated many points except against ISU last week. Funny side bar is Cal Poly’s offense (Scoring and total offense) is better than Idaho’s. Go figure. I don’t think Davis is nearly as good as the love they get right now. But then hard to see that any Big Sky team is equal to the task of the Dakota State’s. This game could be a much more defensive struggle than the prognosticators are thinking but then again, I think Cal Poly just isn’t particularly good.
o Desired Loser: CP – SOS for Davis
o Predicted Score: Davis 37 – CP 10

• UNC @ Weber State – Now here is an enigma. After a dismal season last year, Weber looked they were going to be a middle of the pack non-playoff team. Maybe they still will be but certainly put the hammer down on the Gris in the newly named ‘Wahhhh – Gris’ Weber seems to have an offence. Are they good? Still too early. No good trend – Only scored 16 against a less than good Lamar team and then lost to McNeese State who was hammered by none other than FCS powerhouse Houston Christian. We won’t find out this week how good Weber is – that will have to wait until Oct 19th at Sac State. UNC is in fact close to the worse 0-6 team in the FCS. They will win a game this year? Maybe but not this week. Not this team.
o Desired Loser: Weber (Just need fewer teams competing for a BSC championship.
o Predicted Score: Weber 41 – UNC 20

• Eastern @ Sac State- Just one enigma after another. Two teams with losing records with strong recent pedigrees. Sac State is still in the Top 25 poll because two of its losses are FBS losses. But seems like they should have won at least one of those games. Was the NAU game a fluke? I don’t think so. EWU has the goods to run up the score but can’t stop Munez from shredding the field. I think I will go scratch this week. No upset special
o Desired Loser - Eastern
o Predicted Score: Sac State 45 – EWU - 41

• NAU @ Gris – one of only two FCS games featuring two ranked teams; the other being the Cats and Vandals. Could the Gris lose two games in a row at home? When was that? (Hasn't happened in 21 years but they did lose three games in a row in 2018 but not consecutively at home) Yes, NAU shocked Sac State in the SkyDome and kind of put up a fight against Idaho. But beating Gris this week? I will say this – if the Gris lose, their season is done. Kaput. But that is not going to happen tomorrow.
o Desired Loser: Not so sure anymore
o Predicted Score: Gris 38 – NAU 17

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Idaho vs Cats

My original intent was to provide a detailed look at the statistics of these two teams and how they measure up on both sides of the ball; how others see the game; what are the ramifications and so on. But ran into a few issues: 1) This is the game of the week so every podcast; every article in the paper; every sportswriter has hammered the details of the game; 2) I really don’t know what is going to happen. The Cats have played a very soft schedule. None of us know how we will respond in a challenging game from a formidable opponent – least of all me; 3) I have exhausted my emotional and mental capacity between work; wife gone for 10 days; taking care of two dogs AND from reading 193! Comments about whether fans should be in their seats at the start of the third quarter. Suddenly, I realize how much I have taken a team and a sport I am interested it in and made it nearly the most important aspect of my life. Whoa Trigger. We need to slow down riding into this canyon. It looks treacherous! I need to just chill out some at midnight on Friday.

So only a few thoughts at half past midnight of a long week

1) On paper, Cats have the better offense by far. Idaho’s offense is statistically anemic – clearly the worst of the Top 15 teams
2) On paper, the defenses are about even.
3) Home field advantage is real but I seriously doubt it is reflected accurately in the first drive of the 3rd quarter. I will be in my seat by the start of the 3rd and the stadium will be close to half empty (late game in the dark might send a few more people back early).
4) Running the ball will likely be difficult for both teams but if one team can rush significantly more than the other, they will likely be the winner.
5) I have concerns about our secondary avoiding the game breaking long passes.
6) Winning the game will put the Cats in a great position for a Top 4 or even Top 2 seed.
7) Losing the game will suck and there will all sorts of crap about the Cats soft schedule in the news BUT it will NOT knock us out of contention for a Top 8 seed and bye.
8 ) Sunday will come; the sun will rise and I will get over the game – win or lose!


Go Cats

[Long Time Cat]

Good stuff! Don’t know how you find time to do all this but I appreciate it.

[Catprint]

Good stuff! Don’t know how you find time to do all this but I appreciate it.

I listen to 5-7 podcasts driving to and from work; read 10-20 articles a week and then spend 3-5 hours over 2 or 3 nights looking up all the stats and putting it all together (10-midnight is the best writing time!). Some weeks go better than others because I still work 60-70 hours a week as the owner of a small business.

[Catprint]

WEEK 8 – PART 1 - TOP 8 SEEDING PREDICTIONS; TOP STATS

CatPrint Top 4 Seeding Scenarios

I still think it is way too early to produce a full playoff bracket with seeding. There are too many unknowns and too many games to play. What I prefer to do at this time is look at the probable scenarios that will play out for the Top 4 seeds. Because we really only care about our potential seed at this point. This view gives us a limited circle of options and applies to the Cats in a direct and impactful manner. Here is my take this week. I am not putting these in order of probability but in simple order to follow. We can argue about probability but I want to look at possibilities.

While there are still 6 weeks left in the season, my assumption is SDSU, NDSU and MSU have the best positioning for a Top 4 seed. So that is how we will look at the field. Now, like the apple falls from the tree, someone has to get the 4th seed. At this point, while it might look like the Yotes of South Dakota, they have the toughest road as they play both NDSU and SDSU this fall. At the end of our scenarios, we will consider the front runners for that 4th seed. And of course, this is now. Any one of these top three teams could stumble down the road.

SCENARIO ONE: SDSU and CATS win out
• SDSU
o Wins the Dakota Marker game; then they beat USD and win out
o Record: 11-1
o 10 FCS wins; (They have a DII win)
o NO FCS losses
o 4 ranked wins (Maybe 5)
o SOS: #1 or #2

• NDSU
o Loses the Marker game
o Wins out the final four games including USD
o Record: 10-2
o 10 FCS wins
o 1 FCS loss
o 5 ranked wins
o SOS: #4

• MSU
o Wins out
o Record 12-0
o 11 FCS wins
o 1 FBS win
o NO FCS losses
o 3 Ranked Wins (due to how horrible Sac State is playing that might not be ranked win)
o SOS: around 25-30 (One reason we really don’t want this mess in the Big Sky where everyone is losing. We need some top teams).

SEEDS
• #1 – MSU
• #2 – SDSU
• #3 – NDSU
• #4 – Nova or Mercer or UCD or UCA or Tarleton State or SEMO (See notes later)

Discussion: I consider this scenario to be unlikely. It means all three teams win out except for the Marker. Just seems too far-fetched as that means every opponent (16 of them) doesn’t put up a fight. In the event this happened, the seeding would likely be as laid out here. The big question is who is #4. It would likely not be South Dakota as they will have two FCS losses to the DSU’s. 10-2 with two FCS losses will be a tough spot to get #4. This also means Davis is 10-2 with 1 FCS loss (to the Cats). I think the most likely #4 will be Nova or Mercer as both could very well have NO FCS losses. I don’t think their SOS is high enough to give them a challenge to the first three seeds. However, they will have a convincing argument to be in the consideration

SCENARIO TWO: Flip the Marker Game

Discussion: This is essentially the same as Scenario One except NDSU wins the Marker and everyone wins out. The only thing that changes is #2 and #3 swap. On a side bar, lots of people passionately believe the committee will do everything possible to insure the DSU’s are on the opposite sides of the bracket. This would require the committee to put winner of the Marker at #1 and undefeated MSU at #2. I think this is possible but not probable. I do have faith that the committee would see a 12-0 with an FBS win and dominate performances against most if not all teams as the #1 seed. But we have seen odder results. The biggest challenge is after next week if SDSU wins, they will still be #1 and MSU #2 in the poll. How much weight does the poll have with the committee? If SDSU wins out, it is difficult to see them ceding the #1 spot. They will have the #1 SOS; #1 poll position in both polls; be the defending national champions. Even with the FBS loss, the committee may very well decide they deserve the #1 seed.

One more point about Scenario 1 and 2. These options use a baseline that MSU is undefeated. Other scenarios where the DSUs lose 1 or 2 FCS games or other teams such as USD, Nova, Mercer, SEMO or UCA do not lose any other games are simply variations where MSU gets the #1 seed. I am very comfortable in this prediction. The remaining scenarios look at some options where MSU drops one game or two games.


SCENARIO THREE: SDSU wins out; MSU loses one

• SDSU Wins out including over NDSU and USD.
o Wins the Dakota Marker game; then they beat USD and win out
o Record: 11-1
o 10 FCS wins; (They have a DII win)
o NO FCS losses
o 4 ranked wins (Maybe 5)
o SOS: #1 or #2

• NDSU wins out other than SDSU game
o Loses the Marker game
o Wins out the final four games including USD
o Record: 10-2
o 10 FCS wins
o 1 FCS loss
o 5 ranked wins
o SOS: #4
o
• MSU drops one game
o Loses one game – likely UCDavis
o Record 11-1
o 10 FCS wins
o 1 FBS win
o 1 FCS losses
o 2 Ranked Wins (due to how horrible Sac State is playing that might not be ranked win)
o SOS: around 25-30.

• UC Davis
o Wins out
o Record: 10-1
o 10 FCS wins
o 3 ranked wins

SEEDS:
#1- SDSU
#2 – NDSU (Or swap one and two depending on Marker Game)
#3 – UC Davis (if they beat the Cats)
#4 – MSU (Only if we have high margin of victories in all games and the Davis game is close)

Discussion: This becomes a much more pessimistic seeding conundrum. Clearly, the winner of the Marker gets the #1 seed. But does NDSU at 10-2 get the #2 seed over an MSU team that is 11-1 with an FBS win? And What about UC Davis? If they are the team that beat the Cats, would they leap ahead of the Cats if they go undefeated? My guess is Davis is not that good and they drop on of their last three games. But if they don’t lose any more games and even a close win to MSU will put Davis ahead of MSU.

What is really bizarre this year is that essentially The Cats have to go undefeated to get a Top 2 seed in these scenarios. The typical situation is an FBS loss and/or 1 FCS loss still gives you room to be a #2 seed – Look at Gris in 2023; SDSU in 2022 (loss was an FBS loss); NDSU in 2021. Typically, powerful teams with only one FCS loss can secure a Top 2 seed.


SCENARIO FOUR: SDSU, NDSU and MSU all lose one more game
• SDSU wins Marker but loses one more game
• NDSU loses Marker and wins out
• MSU loses one game
• UCD beats MSU but loses one other game
• Means USD loses one game (NDSU)
• Other contenders (such as Nova, SEMO, Mercer) all lose one game

SEEDS
#1 SDSU
#2 NDSU
#3 MSU
#4 USD or UCD

Discussion: This actually seems like a real possibility because occasional losses by a really good team is fairly common. In this case, Strength of schedule will play a key role. All the top 4 or 5 teams will have ONE FCS loss. Now, does this revert back to our original scenario since precedence and SOS play an especially important role? I think even at 11-1 and NDSU/SDSU at 10-2, the Cats would not get a Top 2 seed based on SOS.


SCENARIO FIVE: Total Chaos
• SDSU wins Marker but loses one game
• NDSU loses a close fought Marker AND wins out
• MSU loses one game
• USD loses one game (NDSU)
• Mercer and Villanova and Central Arkansas (all plausible) all win out

• Overall Records:
o SDSU – 10-2 (1 FCS Loss to USD)
o NDSU – 10-2 (1 FCS loss to SDSU)
o MSU 11-1 (1 FCS Loss to UC Davis)
o USD 10-2 (1 FCS Loss to NDSU)
o UCD 11-1 (No FCS loss)
o Villanova 11-1 (No FCS loss)
o Mercer 11 -1 (No FCS loss)
o UCA 11-2 (1 FCS loss to ACU)

Discussion: I realize things happen and this particular result is unlikely. But stranger things have happened. In this case, 8 teams ranked in the Top 10 while either have no FCS loss (Davis, Nova, and Mercer) or only 1 FCS loss. Of the 5 teams with only FCS loss, four of the losses would have come at the hands of other teams in the Top 8. How in the world does the committee figure out who gets #1, #2, etc. I could easily make an argument for ANY of a number of teams to be #1 or #2 – SDSU, NDSU, USD, MSU, UCD. And at the same time place any of these 8 teams at # 3, #4, #5, etc. Head-to-head will become somewhat meaningless; ranked wins may not be a differentiator and strength of schedule could be all over the map. Here is a WAG at what the committee would do but I will admit all bets are off in this wild seating scenario. It is simply unreal to think MSU could lose only ONE game this year and barely get a top 6 seed. And numerous teams with NO FCS losses do not get a Top 4 seed.

SEEDS
#1 – SDSU (Past Champion)
#2 – USD (Victory over SDSU)
#3 – UC Davis (Win over MSU)
#4 – NDSU (Loss to SDSU)
#5 – MSU (Mid-range SOS)
#6 – Mercer (poor SOS)
#7 – Nova (poor SOS)
#8 – UCA (poor loss to ACU)


What I am not accounting for is any of these three teams dropping 2 games. Basically, with Nova, UCA, SEMO and Mercer all hanging around with NO FCS losses, it will be nearly impossible for the committee to put a 2 loss DSU or MSU ahead of these teams. Even though SOS won’t be great, the committee will have to have some integrity. I see MSU or the DSUs with 2 FCS losses taking a number. That’s my view on seeding right now.


BEST OFFENSE AND DEFENSE AMOUNG THE ELITE

For the 4th week in a row, the Cats are ranked as the best total team in my aggregate stats. This was apparent on the field against Idaho on Saturday Night. We are #1 team offensively and it is not even close with our combination average a rank of 2.75 while South Dakota is 8.00. For perspective, Gris are 15.75 with their vaunted offense and Idaho is 76.00 which puts them decidedly in the middle of the FCS pack. I don’t expect the Cats to stay at #1 the rest of the season as our schedule stiffens up. But on the other hand, if we had left our 1st team in more games, we would be even stronger.

I realize stats don’t win games and wins are all that matters. But I point out that the Playoff Committee has many data points to consider and various stats such as Margin of Victory; Total Offense, etc. all play a factor in why they think one team should be seeded ahead of another.

RED is top team; Yellow is Second Best in the category. Green is 3rd best.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Part II in a day or so- The Weekly CAT-P poll, Big Sky Chaos; Big Sky Game predictions for rest of the year; Cats vs PSU

GO CATS!

[coloradocat]

@Catprint Why do you think the committee would value a win over New Mexico greater than a Marker win and a much better SOS (this applies regardless of who wins on Saturday)? The committee likely believes that both DSUs are better than New Mexico so our win would be worth less than the Marker winner.

[catatac]

I still think it's crazy to predict the Cats losing to UCD, even though it's an away game for the Cats. Yes I know upsets happen, but this Cat team seems focused, determined, and prepared to do their thing and battle their hearts and guts out every single weekend.

[MSU01]

I still think it's crazy to predict the Cats losing to UCD, even though it's an away game for the Cats. Yes I know upsets happen, but this Cat team seems focused, determined, and prepared to do their thing and battle their hearts and guts out every single weekend.

It's impossible to predict which one it will be, but I'd say it's likelier than not that MSU will lose a game before the end of the season. Even if you're favored to win every game it's really hard to avoid that one game when you're not at your best or when you make a couple key mistakes and the opponent takes advantage. Hope I'm wrong and MSU is 12-0 and rolling into the playoffs 6 weeks from now!

[catatac]

I still think it's crazy to predict the Cats losing to UCD, even though it's an away game for the Cats. Yes I know upsets happen, but this Cat team seems focused, determined, and prepared to do their thing and battle their hearts and guts out every single weekend.

It's impossible to predict which one it will be, but I'd say it's likelier than not that MSU will lose a game before the end of the season. Even if you're favored to win every game it's really hard to avoid that one game when you're not at your best or when you make a couple key mistakes and the opponent takes advantage. Hope I'm wrong and MSU is 12-0 and rolling into the playoffs 6 weeks from now!

Totally agree! I get it, and yes it will still be a huge challenge to get through the next five without one slip up. But, you look at each game individually and it's tough to pick against the Cats. Favored by like 20 ish this weekend but regardless, it's possible that the Cats lose. If they do slip up, my guess would be EWU but again, Cats should be huge favorites in that game. As for our two remaining home games, it's a monstrous challenge to come into Bobcat Stadium.

[ilovethecats]

I still think it's crazy to predict the Cats losing to UCD, even though it's an away game for the Cats. Yes I know upsets happen, but this Cat team seems focused, determined, and prepared to do their thing and battle their hearts and guts out every single weekend.

It's impossible to predict which one it will be, but I'd say it's likelier than not that MSU will lose a game before the end of the season. Even if you're favored to win every game it's really hard to avoid that one game when you're not at your best or when you make a couple key mistakes and the opponent takes advantage. Hope I'm wrong and MSU is 12-0 and rolling into the playoffs 6 weeks from now!

Totally agree! I get it, and yes it will still be a huge challenge to get through the next five without one slip up. But, you look at each game individually and it's tough to pick against the Cats. Favored by like 20 ish this weekend but regardless, it's possible that the Cats lose. If they do slip up, my guess would be EWU but again, Cats should be huge favorites in that game. As for our two remaining home games, it's a monstrous challenge to come into Bobcat Stadium.

Exactly. That's why it's so tough. Before the season I thought we'd be 12-0 or 11-1 because looking at each game I just figured the Cats were better. But obviously going undefeated is very hard to do, so a slip somewhere wouldn't shock me. But going into the next 5, as individual games, I just can't pick against the Cats.

Cat griz is always it's own animal and I still always pick the Cats. So while nothing would floor me, I expect the Cats to be favored in every game the rest of the way, and I expect us to win.

Lots of football to be played though!

[Helcat72]

Good stuff! Don’t know how you find time to do all this but I appreciate it.

So do I!

[Catprint]

@Catprint Why do you think the committee would value a win over New Mexico greater than a Marker win and a much better SOS (this applies regardless of who wins on Saturday)? The committee likely believes that both DSUs are better than New Mexico so our win would be worth less than the Marker winner.

Doing my best to channel my alter ego - Mr. Optimism. I just want to believe 12-0 and an FBS win is rewarded with the #1 seed. However, I was listening to Sam Herder and Zach McKinnell tonight and their perspective of the #1 and #2 seed. They looked at the Marker game possible outcomes and felt the Cats have a great chance to be #1 or #2 seed if we win out. However, they agree if SDSU wins the Marker Game and wins out, SDSU is more likely to get the #1 seed due to same factors I raised (before listening to their podcast) - 1) Best SOS; 2) 2 year champion; 3) more ranked wins. It was funny that Sam mentions how 1) Cat's fans don't believe we will get the #1 seed due to bias in favor of DSU's and 2) the committee will be sure that the DSUs are on opposite sides of the bracket. Sam points out that SDSU fans always felt there was an NDSU bias in the 2010's. We all tend to think we are getting the short end of the stick. Just human nature.

As far as the seeding, honestly, who gets #1 or #2 is difficult to determine in certain win out scenarios. Maybe we won't see that because all the top teams get a loss (see scenario #5) but then the same question is raised. I am tending to change my mind on who I want to win the Marker game. I am leaning to the best outcome is a close win by NDSU. This gives a 12-0 MSU team a little better edge to get the #1 seed in my mind.

Some my ask, what difference does it mean to get the #1 vs #2 seed? Both teams get three home games. What's the big deal. The answer my friend is blowing in the wind at Brookings. Look at SDSU's total annihilation of UAlbany. It is quite possible the #4 seed this year will be a weaker team than the top 3 seeds (or #4 will be upset like Idaho was last year). Being the #2 seed most likely gives us a semi-final game against a DSU at home. Being #1 will give us a semi-final against a team that likely has not been to the semi's ever or not for many years. This is a significant advantage in my mine.

[Monymony]

In an ideal world we need NDSU to win this weekend and then lose when they play at USD. That would lock in the 1 for us assuming we finish undefeated

[cats2506]

In an ideal world we need NDSU to win this weekend and then lose when they play at USD. That would lock in the 1 for us assuming we finish undefeated

I'm on the NDSU bandwagon this weekend. I know NDSU is a little banged up on defense but I think the Jacks offense is still having some problems. On the other side of the ball I think its a slugfest but its difficult to believe that NDSU would lose 6 straight to the Jacks.

[ilovethecats]

Tough one for me to figure out.

Regardless of who wins does either of them drop below us with a loss? Seems like a stretch to me but I'm not good at this stuff!

[RockyBearCat]

Tough one for me to figure out.

Regardless of who wins does either of them drop below us with a loss? Seems like a stretch to me but I'm not good at this stuff!

I think with final of less than a score could leave both ahead of Cats. Anything over 7 and loser will drop to 3. A blow out could push the loser to 4.

[MSU01]

Tough one for me to figure out.

Regardless of who wins does either of them drop below us with a loss? Seems like a stretch to me but I'm not good at this stuff!

If NDSU loses, 100% they drop below MSU in the voter polls (no clue what would happen in the computer rankings). The vote totals in the polls between those two are already very close so it wouldn't take many voters dropping NDSU by a spot or two to flip the overall count.

If SDSU loses, I'd say they probably drop below MSU but it wouldn't be for certain.