Expectations

[PapaG]

Like most Cat fans I thought we had turned a huge corner last year when we blew out the Griz after having the national stage of ESPN GameDay. I thought this was going to be the year we made it to Frisco with a real shot at winning it all, rather than getting blown out again. So yes, I'm terribly disappointed and I think the coaching staff let us down--bad calls, poor strategy at times, special teams, etc. Especially when you have such an enthusiastic and supportive fan base. I will be there next fall in my season seats. After all you cannot lose the tailgate no matter what happens on the field (grin.) However, I am sadly lowering my expectations going forward.

I’ve been to many games in Bozeman and Missoula over many decades. No program in the nation has a better game-day experience than MSU. In my opinion, UM has an equally good atmosphere (e.g., tailgates, setting, fan experience), but not a better one. Most programs in the nation would give their left or right you know what to be what the Bobcats are. Frankly, I think that’s why many FCS programs have caved and gone to the FBS — they chased the money after their chase of an FCS championship proved unsuccessful. To be disappointed over unfulfilled championship expectations, like the Cat fans are right now, is the sign of a very strong program.

Gris still have one of the very best in stadium advantages in all of college football. It was so loud at times at the Bobcat game Saturday you couldn’t hear people sitting one person away, but the open end of our stadium still looks somewhat rinky-dink and allows noise to escape. Missoula has a true FBS stadium. I always equate it in person as being a mini-Autzen based on how the crowd just hovers all around the field and seems right on top of the players.

I’d like to see the Gris make Frisco and then lose massively to SDSU. I simply can’t want a title for them, but wouldn’t mind watching three more games to see if someone figures out that McDowell is a very limited QB.

[kennethnoisewater]

I feel like in 3 of the 4 losses (Cat-gris excluded), we just saw how slim the margin for error is in really tough road games. It felt to me like this was a team that was good enough to win every game, and the players and coaches could get away with not being perfect. There were a lot of imperfect games, but the Cats were good enough to come away with convincing wins in all of them. IMO that's coaching, but it doesn't have to be a huge change. For whatever reason, it seemed like the Cats came into games kind of arrogantly assuming yards would be easy to come by right off the bat. When that didn't happen, a couple times the momentum got away from them. And I think for a coach that seemed to rely on momentum so much, Vigen needed to do more to be damn sure we had the right plan in place to grab momentum offensively.

So I put blame on the coaching staff, but we're talking about a razor thin margin in 3 of the 4 losses. Cat-gris I think was a massive blunder, but I was encouraged that the team came out so ready to play against NDSU.

Making wholesale changes is a very bad idea. MSU hasn't had quality coaching candidates beating down the doors the last couple times. Get a new guy in here with a new philosophy and he's going to want different players. Then it's a rebuild and 2-3 years to get back to even a disappointing season like this one. Get a couple first downs and make a stop or two in Moscow, and the season is way different because it's not NDSU coming to Bozeman for a second round game. Or if the schedule wasn't murderer's row and you get Idaho OR Sac St at home, I think it's a different story too. Or let's say Idaho doesn't get that offsides called on them on the onsides kick against the gris--they're the 2 seed and the gris might be the 4. So many miniscule changes that could have made everything different.

If the Cats are 1% better against SDSU, Idaho and NDSU, we're still playing. You don't fire a coach when you want to get 1% better or even 10% better. But there HAS to be an expectation of getting better. I'm not saying changes shouldn't be made, and I'm not even saying there shouldn't be at least one new coordinator.

[VimSince03]

I feel like in 3 of the 4 losses (Cat-gris excluded), we just saw how slim the margin for error is in really tough road games. It felt to me like this was a team that was good enough to win every game, and the players and coaches could get away with not being perfect. There were a lot of imperfect games, but the Cats were good enough to come away with convincing wins in all of them. IMO that's coaching, but it doesn't have to be a huge change. For whatever reason, it seemed like the Cats came into games kind of arrogantly assuming yards would be easy to come by right off the bat. When that didn't happen, a couple times the momentum got away from them. And I think for a coach that seemed to rely on momentum so much, Vigen needed to do more to be damn sure we had the right plan in place to grab momentum offensively.

So I put blame on the coaching staff, but we're talking about a razor thin margin in 3 of the 4 losses. Cat-gris I think was a massive blunder, but I was encouraged that the team came out so ready to play against NDSU.

Making wholesale changes is a very bad idea. MSU hasn't had quality coaching candidates beating down the doors the last couple times. Get a new guy in here with a new philosophy and he's going to want different players. Then it's a rebuild and 2-3 years to get back to even a disappointing season like this one. Get a couple first downs and make a stop or two in Moscow, and the season is way different because it's not NDSU coming to Bozeman for a second round game. Or if the schedule wasn't murderer's row and you get Idaho OR Sac St at home, I think it's a different story too. Or let's say Idaho doesn't get that offsides called on them on the onsides kick against the gris--they're the 2 seed and the gris might be the 4. So many miniscule changes that could have made everything different.

If the Cats are 1% better against SDSU, Idaho and NDSU, we're still playing. You don't fire a coach when you want to get 1% better or even 10% better. But there HAS to be an expectation of getting better. I'm not saying changes shouldn't be made, and I'm not even saying there shouldn't be at least one new coordinator.

Like...the thinnest of razors.

[BelligerentBobcat]

We didn’t have quality coaching candidates?

I swear guys, I hate it here.

[WetBreeches]

There is a reason Cat fans should have high expectations...look around FCS. How many FCS teams consistently draw 26,000+ fans, have an athletic complex like MSU and pay their coaches like low level FBS? The cats should be top 4 every season based upon facilities and coach pay. Several of the power FCS schools have also left in the last 15 years or so.

If Georgia/Ohio St/Alabama/Michigan/Texas went from losing the National Championship, to losing in the semis, to going 8-4 their fan bases would be clamoring for change. It shouldn't be a whole lot different at the FCS level. I too remember the dark days of Bobcat football, but there was more depth back then and the Cats facilities and pay didn't far out pace the competition.

If Vigen doesn't feel a current position coach is a suitable replacement for a coordinator then he would be able to go to just about any FCS program and poach a coordinator. The University and fans should not settle and ignore the immense gap that has been created at MSU.

[tetoncat]

I think we totally overesestimated the talent on this team. The griz had more talent. I do think Vigen is a good recruiter and and a better X's ande O's coach than Choate but not near as good of a recruiter. We need to keep him but our expectations need to be lowered.

No they didn't. Other than Griz game all Cat losses where a one play from wins. All wins were not close. Griz had several poor performances to start the year. If a couple more of those were on road (like nau)was they have .ore losses. But give them credit, made QB change, fixed OL issues, and D kept them in games until they got on a roll.

[84CatGrad]

I remember all those years the playoffs were completely out of reach. Now all we worry about is how high our seeding will be. We are in a very good place. It's really hard to win a 'ship. But we are in the hunt every year. The NDSU loss killed me. The fact the frizzzzz are #2 and have the easiest path to the semis in the history of the tournament (no I can't back that up with data) is killing me even more. But we are in a very good place. And I am enjoying it thoroughly.

[tetoncat]

I remember all those years the playoffs were completely out of reach. Now all we worry about is how high our seeding will be. We are in a very good place. It's really hard to win a 'ship. But we are in the hunt every year. The NDSU loss killed me. The fact the frizzzzz are #2 and have the easiest path to the semis in the history of the tournament (no I can't back that up with data) is killing me even more. But we are in a very good place. And I am enjoying it thoroughly.

What kills me is Cats in 22 had 1 loss, to Oregon State, still a 4 seed. Still on road. This year Griz bad loss to NAU, 2 seed home thru the playoffs.

[jgrilley406]

Going into this season I felt like Cats had a shot at the title. I felt they could definitely win it all but I also felt 2024 is really the year where they should put it all together. Grebe, Valdez, Ortt, Mellott, Woodard will be seniors, returning nearly all the secondary and Oline. The schedule is significantly easier with Sac, Idaho, gris coming to Bozeman. Finally, the road blocks like SDSU and NDSU are extremely senior laden and will be dramatically different teams. We shall see what the next month holds but if they don’t get to at least the semis next year it will be catastrophic. 11-1 or 12-0 is very doable.

This.

I too felt that we had the talent to win the title this year and our ultimate results were disappointing-- but I also realize that we were *thisclose* to something far better, losing three games out of four on the final play. I always felt that next year was *the* year where we would be loaded with veteran talent. We have a *much* more favorable schedule (the only game I'm really worried about is our road opener at New Mexico and maybe to a lesser extent our home game vs. a resurgent Gris)

Absent an unexpected evisceration by the transfer window, If we are not in Frisco next year, it would certainly qualify as a massive disappointment-- and a big surprise.

The thing is cats better change their philosophy and quit running Tommy into the ground…same thing happened with ifanse…overworked them in the season didn’t use the depth especially this year with RBs, didn’t trust in Tommy’s arm (or just horrible passing calls, nothing but jump balls to the outside) and come playoff time Tommy gets hurt (Chambers as well too many hits running up the middle and ifanse never healthy in the playoffs). With the talent we have at WR and RB there is no need Tommy needs to be getting the bulk of the carries and hits that he’s taken in his career so far. cats need to be a little more balanced especially against the stronger defenses than what we were against the griz and the first half of NDSU SDSU and Idaho.

[WYCAT]

I remember all those years the playoffs were completely out of reach. Now all we worry about is how high our seeding will be. We are in a very good place. It's really hard to win a 'ship. But we are in the hunt every year. The NDSU loss killed me. The fact the frizzzzz are #2 and have the easiest path to the semis in the history of the tournament (no I can't back that up with data) is killing me even more. But we are in a very good place. And I am enjoying it thoroughly.

I agree with most of that, however, I would add the FCS has declined since those years. The number of top tier teams that have moved up weakened the FCS as a whole. I feel it's easier to be a top 10 team now than it was in the past.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Going into this season I felt like Cats had a shot at the title. I felt they could definitely win it all but I also felt 2024 is really the year where they should put it all together. Grebe, Valdez, Ortt, Mellott, Woodard will be seniors, returning nearly all the secondary and Oline. The schedule is significantly easier with Sac, Idaho, gris coming to Bozeman. Finally, the road blocks like SDSU and NDSU are extremely senior laden and will be dramatically different teams. We shall see what the next month holds but if they don’t get to at least the semis next year it will be catastrophic. 11-1 or 12-0 is very doable.

This.

I too felt that we had the talent to win the title this year and our ultimate results were disappointing-- but I also realize that we were *thisclose* to something far better, losing three games out of four on the final play. I always felt that next year was *the* year where we would be loaded with veteran talent. We have a *much* more favorable schedule (the only game I'm really worried about is our road opener at New Mexico and maybe to a lesser extent our home game vs. a resurgent Gris)

Absent an unexpected evisceration by the transfer window, If we are not in Frisco next year, it would certainly qualify as a massive disappointment-- and a big surprise.

The thing is cats better change their philosophy and quit running Tommy into the ground…same thing happened with ifanse…overworked them in the season didn’t use the depth especially this year with RBs, didn’t trust in Tommy’s arm (or just horrible passing calls, nothing but jump balls to the outside) and come playoff time Tommy gets hurt (Chambers as well too many hits running up the middle and ifanse never healthy in the playoffs). With the talent we have at WR and RB there is no need Tommy needs to be getting the bulk of the carries and hits that he’s taken in his career so far. cats need to be a little more balanced especially against the stronger defenses than what we were against the griz and the first half of NDSU SDSU and Idaho.

Tommy averaged just shy of 10 runs per game this year, and several of those a game would’ve been scrambles. I don’t think that’s working him into the ground.

[tetoncat]

And is it okay to give RBs 15-20 carries a game. Scottre only got 10 vs NDSU, wasn't enough. It's not like Tommy is a little guy.

[kennethnoisewater]

We didn’t have quality coaching candidates?

I swear guys, I hate it here.

Guessing that's a comment on my post. If so, I didn't say we didn't have quality candidates, I just said they haven't exactly been great ones beating down the door. We can talk the semantics of that if you want, but my point is it's hard to get the caliber of coaches we'd expect to come to Bozeman (including assistants). The pressure and the cost of living don't make it pencil out for a lot of guys. Yes there are higher pressure jobs. Yes there are more expensive places to live (barely). But a pretty simple cost-benefit analysis says it's not worth it for plenty of people. Even a head coach salary doesn't set you apart in Bozeman. Coordinator salaries can maybe buy you a modest condo. So the point I was making is that cleaning house and trying to find a new guy and a bunch of assistants is not the answer here.

[jgrilley406]

And is it okay to give RBs 15-20 carries a game. Scottre only got 10 vs NDSU, wasn't enough. It's not like Tommy is a little guy.

No with the depth at that position the cats have, there is no reason why any one back for every game receive that many carries. Obviously Tommy is super dynamic and has home run potential every time he takes off, but you had Scottre averaging 7 yards a carry against NDSU on 10 carries. Tommy minus the long TD run was about 17 for 80, White idk if he was dinged up same I’m assuming for Sumner but you still had Elliot, who was none existent all season despite looking very capable of handling some touches last year. What I’ve always said about NDSU not so much this year but ever year that they were on top, was that they used their RB depth extremely well during the season and come playoff time all their backs looked extremely healthy and fresh, which is part of the reason IMO why they always seemed to be leaps ahead of everyone in the playoffs. It just seems to be a pattern ifanse, Troy, sumner, chambers, Davis, etc. are hobbling into the playoffs.

[BelligerentBobcat]

We didn’t have quality coaching candidates?

I swear guys, I hate it here.

Guessing that's a comment on my post. If so, I didn't say we didn't have quality candidates, I just said they haven't exactly been great ones beating down the door. We can talk the semantics of that if you want, but my point is it's hard to get the caliber of coaches we'd expect to come to Bozeman (including assistants). The pressure and the cost of living don't make it pencil out for a lot of guys. Yes there are higher pressure jobs. Yes there are more expensive places to live (barely). But a pretty simple cost-benefit analysis says it's not worth it for plenty of people. Even a head coach salary doesn't set you apart in Bozeman. Coordinator salaries can maybe buy you a modest condo. So the point I was making is that cleaning house and trying to find a new guy and a bunch of assistants is not the answer here.

No, your exact words were:

“MSU hasn't had quality coaching candidates beating down the doors the last couple times.”

You can explain it however you want, but you’re wrong. Ken Wilson, Trent Bray, Matt Lubick, Vigen, and others, are all more than quality candidates.

[kennethnoisewater]

We didn’t have quality coaching candidates?

I swear guys, I hate it here.

Guessing that's a comment on my post. If so, I didn't say we didn't have quality candidates, I just said they haven't exactly been great ones beating down the door. We can talk the semantics of that if you want, but my point is it's hard to get the caliber of coaches we'd expect to come to Bozeman (including assistants). The pressure and the cost of living don't make it pencil out for a lot of guys. Yes there are higher pressure jobs. Yes there are more expensive places to live (barely). But a pretty simple cost-benefit analysis says it's not worth it for plenty of people. Even a head coach salary doesn't set you apart in Bozeman. Coordinator salaries can maybe buy you a modest condo. So the point I was making is that cleaning house and trying to find a new guy and a bunch of assistants is not the answer here.

No, your exact words were:

“MSU hasn't had quality coaching candidates beating down the doors the last couple times.”

You can explain it however you want, but you’re wrong. Ken Wilson, Trent Bray, Matt Lubick, Vigen, and others, are all more than quality candidates.

Alright beating down the doors means something different to me but your point is well received. I never disagreed with that take either.

[BelligerentBobcat]

And is it okay to give RBs 15-20 carries a game. Scottre only got 10 vs NDSU, wasn't enough. It's not like Tommy is a little guy.

No with the depth at that position the cats have, there is no reason why any one back for every game receive that many carries. Obviously Tommy is super dynamic and has home run potential every time he takes off, but you had Scottre averaging 7 yards a carry against NDSU on 10 carries. Tommy minus the long TD run was about 17 for 80, White idk if he was dinged up same I’m assuming for Sumner but you still had Elliot, who was none existent all season despite looking very capable of handling some touches last year. What I’ve always said about NDSU not so much this year but ever year that they were on top, was that they used their RB depth extremely well during the season and come playoff time all their backs looked extremely healthy and fresh, which is part of the reason IMO why they always seemed to be leaps ahead of everyone in the playoffs. It just seems to be a pattern ifanse, Troy, sumner, chambers, Davis, etc. are hobbling into the playoffs.

Elliot has been hurt, I’m assuming White was dinged up, Sumner was hurt for most of the season and when he came back wasn’t particularly explosive, Davis was hurt…so they had Humphrey, and Sumner available to them. Could have used Adam Jones, but he hasn’t played a lot. So yeah, they ran Tommy more in a win or go home situation, just like they should. And he wouldn’t have had as many carries if he had given the ball up like he should’ve. Thats not all on the coaches.

[BelligerentBobcat]

We didn’t have quality coaching candidates?

I swear guys, I hate it here.

Guessing that's a comment on my post. If so, I didn't say we didn't have quality candidates, I just said they haven't exactly been great ones beating down the door. We can talk the semantics of that if you want, but my point is it's hard to get the caliber of coaches we'd expect to come to Bozeman (including assistants). The pressure and the cost of living don't make it pencil out for a lot of guys. Yes there are higher pressure jobs. Yes there are more expensive places to live (barely). But a pretty simple cost-benefit analysis says it's not worth it for plenty of people. Even a head coach salary doesn't set you apart in Bozeman. Coordinator salaries can maybe buy you a modest condo. So the point I was making is that cleaning house and trying to find a new guy and a bunch of assistants is not the answer here.

No, your exact words were:

“MSU hasn't had quality coaching candidates beating down the doors the last couple times.”

You can explain it however you want, but you’re wrong. Ken Wilson, Trent Bray, Matt Lubick, Vigen, and others, are all more than quality candidates.

Alright beating down the doors means something different to me but your point is well received. I never disagreed with that take either.

I guess I’m confused on what you mean by beating down the doors. They all applied for the job. Are you expecting them to be verbose about how much they want the job before they get it?

[luckyirishguy25]

.

[John K]

I remember all those years the playoffs were completely out of reach. Now all we worry about is how high our seeding will be. We are in a very good place. It's really hard to win a 'ship. But we are in the hunt every year. The NDSU loss killed me. The fact the frizzzzz are #2 and have the easiest path to the semis in the history of the tournament (no I can't back that up with data) is killing me even more. But we are in a very good place. And I am enjoying it thoroughly.

What kills me is Cats in 22 had 1 loss, to Oregon State, still a 4 seed. Still on road. This year Griz bad loss to NAU, 2 seed home thru the playoffs.

You can't look at our results in a particular season in a vacuum, or the Griz results, when you're assessing whether or not the playoff seedings were accurate or fair. You also have to look at the results of the other top teams. You could make a case that we should have been the 3 seed rather than 4 last year, but we definitely weren't gonna be any higher than 3. Do you think they weren't deserving of a 2 seed this year? Who would you have placed higher than them? Remember, if we had taken care of business in Missoula, we would have had that 2 seed instead of them, with a 9-2 record. Last year, with a 10-1 record, we got only a 4 seed, and the best we could have hoped for would have been a 3 seed. In 2021, we were 9-2 and got only an 8 seed. This year, at 8-3, we got a 6 seed. Things play out differently every year among the top teams across the nation.