Griz in the Playoffs

[JDoub]

NDSU is a poor example since, as you said, neither team was eligible.

My point about NDSU is that the NCAA imposing a 4 year ban on post-season play IS RIGGING THE SYSTEM. NDSU absolutely DESERVED to be in the playoffs those two years, above almost the entire field.

What did NDSU do to deserve a post-season ban? Move UP? I can understand a ban if you move DOWN, like Idaho will, but not moving UP. Makes no sense.

[WSUWILDCAT]

No need to get personal about it. If you want to do that, then take your ball and go home to egriz. I'm not having a hard time with it at all. I'm fine with your theory that they "don't look at league records," but human nature doesn't work that way. When it comes down to taking just four teams from the BSC and they're having a difficult time determining who to take, they'll start looking at league records because they know if they take the team with the lessor league record the one with the higher league record is going to freak out.

But never mind that: Weber plays NAU, Poly and ISU. UM plays ISU, UNC and MSU. ISUs cancel each other out. Poly is better than UNC and NAU is better than MSU. I highly, highly doubt that UM will be ahead of WSU in SOS after that.

Sorry didn't mean to get personal at all. I just seriously thought you were struggling to pick up on the concept of conference records vs overall body of work. My bad. Sounds like you get it. I actually think this has been a good discussion and gives some insight into what the committees have to take into account. Not an easy job by any means. We will all know soon enough how it shakes out. Griz need to win 3 in a row (vs ISU, noco, and MSU) and I'd say Weber does too (vs NAU, CP, and ISU) for either to have a shot at all IMO

Other issue at play that I meant to mention is national rankings. Griz are ranked 19 right now. If they win 3 in a row it's reasonable to see them in the top 15-16 at regular season end. Weber is not in top 25. If they win 3 in a row, one of those wins will be a top 15 ranked Cal Poly so maybe they crack the top 25. But they'd probably be 24-25 if so. Is the committee going to put in an 8-3 Weber ranked 24-25 over a 15-16 ranked Griz at 8-3. I'd say no way. In fact, at that point I'd say the Griz are in for sure and that they and Weber aren't even battling for a spot. Instead Weber would be battling another "bubble burst" or "first out" team.

Unfortunately Weber didn't get the benefit of being so highly ranked to start the season like Montana did regardless whether each team deserved to or not.

[JDoub]

Do you have some examples of them taking less deserving teams before? I just don't recall that happening, so I'm skeptical about this "rigged system" of which you speak.

It pains me to say it, in 2014, MSU started the season ranked #18, then proceeded to go 8-4 against a really weak schedule. Only 2 wins were against teams with a winning record (Sac & ISU were 7-5 and 8-4; no wins against the playoff field...and a soul crushing loss in Missoula. And hosted a home playoff game against SDSU.

There are probably others, but that one hits pretty close to home.

So who did MSU go in ahead of that should've gotten in over MSU?

Charleston Southern was also 8-4 with 2 of their losses against SEC schools

Bethune-Cookman was 9-3 with a win over an FBS school, and a loss to an FBS school and was nationally ranked (FCS) all year


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[iaafan]

Neither one of those schools should've gotten in ahead of MSU.

Chas. Southern and Bethune-Cookman are from weak conferences that rarely get at-large bids.

Chas. So. was 8-4, but had two wins vs. D2 teams, which brings their total of D1 wins to 6, which is the almost always (I think a 6-win team got in once or twice in the 20+ years and they were both from a FCS power conference) the cut-off. You need 7 wins.

You could almost make a case for the 9-3 B-C, but again they're from a very weak MEAC and the committee gives that strong consideration. Being in a weak conference cause their strength of schedule and SRS to be lower than MSU's.

I think we can all agree that it's extremely rare that the committee gives an auto-bid to a lessor team. WSU will most likely have strength of schedule and record vs. common opponents edges over UM. An 8-3 or 7-4 tie with WSU would put UM behind the Wildcats. The only way UM would get in tied with WSU is if the BSC takes five teams or if Cal Poly collapses.

[catpound]

If the Griz finish 8-3 or 7-4 they are in...case closed. If it comes down to one or the other, Griz or Weber at 7-4, Griz get in...common opponents record, BSC record, any tabulation you want to put out there, if the Griz and Weber both end up at 7-4 and only one gets in it will be the Griz and I bet the committee doesn't debate it for 5 seconds, simply put they have the stadium and they put butts in the seats.

[onceacat]

Neither one of those schools should've gotten in ahead of MSU.

Chas. Southern and Bethune-Cookman are from weak conferences that rarely get at-large bids.

Chas. So. was 8-4, but had two wins vs. D2 teams, which brings their total of D1 wins to 6, which is the almost always (I think a 6-win team got in once or twice in the 20+ years and they were both from a FCS power conference) the cut-off. You need 7 wins.

You could almost make a case for the 9-3 B-C, but again they're from a very weak MEAC and the committee gives that strong consideration. Being in a weak conference cause their strength of schedule and SRS to be lower than MSU's.

I think we can all agree that it's extremely rare that the committee gives an auto-bid to a lessor team. WSU will most likely have strength of schedule and record vs. common opponents edges over UM. An 8-3 or 7-4 tie with WSU would put UM behind the Wildcats. The only way UM would get in tied with WSU is if the BSC takes five teams or if Cal Poly collapses.

A 7-5 Youngstown State (ranked #22)missed the playoffs even though all but one if its losses were to the playoff field & FBS. With 2 wins over the playoff field. If I remember correctly, that would have made 6 MVFC teams, which is was a bit of a stretch for the committee. The MVFC only lost 1 playoff game to an OOC team. I think the entire conference maybe only lost a couple of regular season OOC games.

The main point is that the committee is really splitting hairs when it starts looking at teams on the bubble. I think you could make a reasonable case for all 4 teams listed here. I have no idea what the SRS rankings suggested. MSU wasn't clearly worse than CSU, BC, or YSU, but the Cats weren't clearly better either.

Likewise, unless something changes drastically in the computer rankings, WSU isn't going to have a clear advantage over UM. And UM is going to have some advantages (history, $$, higher ranking all season long) that are going to be highly influential in the eyes of many. Not saying its right, but bubble teams come down to some pretty insignificant football differences.

[AlphaGriz1]

Blah, blah, blah.......it all boils down to the fact that this year's Griz team sucks and shouldn't be in the playoffs PERIOD. This is the worst Griz team we have had in 25 years. Horrible

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[BigBruceBaker]

Blah, blah, blah.......it all boils down to the fact that this year's Griz team sucks and shouldn't be in the playoffs PERIOD. This is the worst Griz team we have had in 25 years. Horrible

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But....but....but.... Stitt is awesome?


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[iaafan]

YSU was 7-2 and 4-1 in the league, but closed the season with three straight losses. That didn't impress the committee. The played three very weak teams in their non-conference slate. They were .500 in their conference and the wins were not impressive. I don't think you can say MSU was taken over a more deserving YSU or because it was going to out-draw YSU.

Like I've been saying it's extremely rare for the committee to take a less deserving team. If it comes down to UM and WSU for the last spot and both are 8-3 or 7-4. The edge goes to WSU due to common opponent record and strength of schedule. Not only has UM lost to all of the quality opponents it's played, but it lost 2 of those games decidedly scoring late to make them look closer than they were. Weber's two FCS losses have been by 3 in double-OT and was down just five with 4:46 to play before losing by eight to first place UND.

[grizpack]

YSU was 7-2 and 4-1 in the league, but closed the season with three straight losses. That didn't impress the committee. The played three very weak teams in their non-conference slate. They were .500 in their conference and the wins were not impressive. I don't think you can say MSU was taken over a more deserving YSU or because it was going to out-draw YSU.

Like I've been saying it's extremely rare for the committee to take a less deserving team. If it comes down to UM and WSU for the last spot and both are 8-3 or 7-4. The edge goes to WSU due to common opponent record and strength of schedule. Not only has UM lost to all of the quality opponents it's played, but it lost 2 of those games decidedly scoring late to make them look closer than they were. Weber's two FCS losses have been by 3 in double-OT and was down just five with 4:46 to play before losing by eight to first place UND.

Beating Northern Iowa, on the road (even if NI is having an "off" year for them) is not a quality opponent?

[Grizaddict]

YSU was 7-2 and 4-1 in the league, but closed the season with three straight losses. That didn't impress the committee. The played three very weak teams in their non-conference slate. They were .500 in their conference and the wins were not impressive. I don't think you can say MSU was taken over a more deserving YSU or because it was going to out-draw YSU.

Like I've been saying it's extremely rare for the committee to take a less deserving team. If it comes down to UM and WSU for the last spot and both are 8-3 or 7-4. The edge goes to WSU due to common opponent record and strength of schedule. Not only has UM lost to all of the quality opponents it's played, but it lost 2 of those games decidedly scoring late to make them look closer than they were. Weber's two FCS losses have been by 3 in double-OT and was down just five with 4:46 to play before losing by eight to first place UND.

Beating Northern Iowa, on the road (even if NI is having an "off" year for them) is not a quality opponent?

SFU will also be in the playoffs and committee will consider a quality opponent. I promise an 8-3 Griz team is a lock for playoffs. Won't even be be between Weber and Griz (if Weber is 8-3 st that point which I don't think they will be) as then it will be between Weber and another bubble team. Willing to put any $ on it.

[iaafan]

I'm saying if WSU and UM are the two teams vying for the last spot, then WSU will get in. WSU, in fact, would be ahead of Cal Poly by virtue of head-to-head win, which would be ahead of UM due to head-to-head win. At 8-3, WSU will have wins over NAU and Poly and the Griz lost to both, so a better record vs. common opponents for WSU. WSU will be 7-1 in the BSC to UM's 5-3. St. Francis only route to the playoffs is to win its conference. I doubt they consider UM's wins over No. Iowa and St. Francis greater than WSU's wins over Poly and NAU, who UM lost to. UM won't be stronger in any element that the committee will look at. It would take a logic disconnect by the committee to do that. Obviously if they both get in, then they weren't vying for the last spot. UM could get in, in this scenario, if the BSC get 5 teams in the playoffs.

As for No. Iowa. They're 3-5 and staring at 4-7 with games at Western Ill. and home vs. SDSU. Is that a quality opponent? You tell me.

The Griz should be huge EWU fans this weekend. An EWU win opens a lot of doors for the Griz, because either Poly or WSU would fall to four losses and UM at 8-3 would get in. But a loss by UM in any of its last three puts it back in a tie in that scenario with either WSU or Poly and that is problematic.

[Grizaddict]

I'm saying if WSU and UM are the two teams vying for the last spot, then WSU will get in. WSU, in fact, would be ahead of Cal Poly by virtue of head-to-head win, which would be ahead of UM due to head-to-head win. At 8-3, WSU will have wins over NAU and Poly and the Griz lost to both, so a better record vs. common opponents for WSU. WSU will be 7-1 in the BSC to UM's 5-3. St. Francis only route to the playoffs is to win its conference. I doubt they consider UM's wins over No. Iowa and St. Francis greater than WSU's wins over Poly and NAU, who UM lost to. UM won't be stronger in any element that the committee will look at. It would take a logic disconnect by the committee to do that. Obviously if they both get in, then they weren't vying for the last spot. UM could get in, in this scenario, if the BSC get 5 teams in the playoffs.

As for No. Iowa. They're 3-5 and staring at 4-7 with games at Western Ill. and home vs. SDSU. Is that a quality opponent? You tell me.

The Griz should be huge EWU fans this weekend. An EWU win opens a lot of doors for the Griz, because either Poly or WSU would fall to four losses and UM at 8-3 would get in. But a loss by UM in any of its last three puts it back in a tie in that scenario with either WSU or Poly and that is problematic.

And what I'm saying is a world doesn't exist where an 8-3 Griz team ranked around 15-16 in the polls is vying for the "last spot" you speak of. An 8-3 Griz team ranked 15-16 in the country is a lock, and an 8-3 Weber team (probably ranked 22-24) is then competing with a different bubble team.

I picked the entire bracket last year, including a 6-5 western Ill team bouncing a 7-4 UND team, because I follow that nobowls guru and his criteria line up almost 100% with selection criteria from the committee. As it sits right now, if the season ended today, the scenario I just mentioned is exactly what he has playing out as well. In fact, he doesn't even have Weber as a bubble team at that point. He has chosen 95% correctly since 2008. His criteria are pretty spot on.

[onceacat]

I'm saying if WSU and UM are the two teams vying for the last spot, then WSU will get in. WSU, in fact, would be ahead of Cal Poly by virtue of head-to-head win, which would be ahead of UM due to head-to-head win. At 8-3, WSU will have wins over NAU and Poly and the Griz lost to both, so a better record vs. common opponents for WSU. WSU will be 7-1 in the BSC to UM's 5-3. St. Francis only route to the playoffs is to win its conference. I doubt they consider UM's wins over No. Iowa and St. Francis greater than WSU's wins over Poly and NAU, who UM lost to. UM won't be stronger in any element that the committee will look at. It would take a logic disconnect by the committee to do that. Obviously if they both get in, then they weren't vying for the last spot. UM could get in, in this scenario, if the BSC get 5 teams in the playoffs.

As for No. Iowa. They're 3-5 and staring at 4-7 with games at Western Ill. and home vs. SDSU. Is that a quality opponent? You tell me.

The Griz should be huge EWU fans this weekend. An EWU win opens a lot of doors for the Griz, because either Poly or WSU would fall to four losses and UM at 8-3 would get in. But a loss by UM in any of its last three puts it back in a tie in that scenario with either WSU or Poly and that is problematic.

And what I'm saying is a world doesn't exist where an 8-3 Griz team ranked around 15-16 in the polls is vying for the "last spot" you speak of. An 8-3 Griz team ranked 15-16 in the country is a lock, and an 8-3 Weber team (probably ranked 22-24) is then competing with a different bubble team.

I picked the entire bracket last year, including a 6-5 western Ill team bouncing a 7-4 UND team, because I follow that nobowls guru and his criteria line up almost 100% with selection criteria from the committee. As it sits right now, if the season ended today, the scenario I just mentioned is exactly what he has playing out as well. In fact, he doesn't even have Weber as a bubble team at that point. He has chosen 95% correctly since 2008. His criteria are pretty spot on.

Just to be clear: Any team that finishes at 8-3 in the Big Sky is a lock. At this point, that could include Northern Colorado. But I'm with Grizaddict here: A UM team that loses one more will still be a top 20 team, and a clear lock for the playoffs, quality wins or not. At 7-4, Weber will be competing for a spot with teams like Stony Brook, Maine, Wofford, New Hampshire, Liberty and so on. FWIW, the computer ranking systems LOVE UNI. They could finish at 6-5 and beat out Weber for a bubble spot. The Massey composite puts UNI at #21, 14 spots higher than Weber.

Assuming the SRS is reasonably close to the other computer rankings, Weber is a really long shot at 7-4.

Look at it this way: there are 11 auto bids, plus Coastal Carolina. So, 12 at large bids. At #35 in the computer rankings, Weber is a long way off from one of those 12 spots. MVFC has 3 locks right now, BSC has 2 (lets assume UND and Poly), CAA has 2, Southland has 1. There are 3 spots left to "bubble teams" which are going to include UNI, South Dakota (with a win over Weber), and Illinois St from the MVFC, Wofford, New Hampshire, Albany, Maine, and Stony Brook from the CAA and Eastern Illinois from the OVC. Plus, UM and Weber. Lets assume all of those teams are 7-4, except UNI, which finishes 6-5.

One of those 3 goes to the MVFC team. So, look at the current rankings of those bubble teams. Weber sits below all of them except EIU in the composite rankings. UM currently sits higher than every single other bubble team.

I know the computers aren't the be all end all, but its hard to see a world in which a 7-5 Weber makes the cut over those other teams, but pretty easy to see how UM makes it.

[Hawks86]

I don't think Coastal is playoff eligible. Has there ever been a BSC team make it into the playoffs with a .500 conf. record?

[iaafan]

A few pages ago there was discussion about 5 BSC teams making the playoffs. Assuming UND, EWU both finish 9-2 or better, that leaves WSU, Poly and UM at 8-3. Assuming there are 11 teams from the MVFC, CAA, SoCon, Southland and perhaps a wildcard team from a weak conference that fill out 11 of the 13 at-large spots. That only leaves two spots for the 3 BSC teams. I don't see UM getting in ahead of either. If Poly beats WSU, then they're No. 12 (probably higher, but whatever) due to their wins over both UM and WSU and that would leave WSU and UM for the last spot. There is no guarantee that UM gets in at 8-3 if that's the case. Just sayin'.

If the MVFC, CAA, SoCon and Southland only fill out 10 of the 13, then the BSC gets three spots and the point is moot.

[iaafan]

[quote="Hawks86"]I don't think Coastal is playoff eligible. Has there ever been a BSC team make it into the playoffs with a .500 conf. record?[/quote]

Nope.

[onceacat]

I don't think Coastal is playoff eligible. Has there ever been a BSC team make it into the playoffs with a .500 conf. record?

Nope.

If that is true, it opens up one more spot. It still doesn't go to Weber-it goes to UNH or Maine or Wofford.

Again, you seem fixated on conference records, which the committee doesn't even look at.

[iaafan]

Not fixated, but they'll look at it if it's close. It isn't. WSU will probably have the edge in SOS, common opponent and SRS. The conference record is just a by-product of the common opponent wins favoring WSU. They'll see the conference record and look deeper and see the common opponent edge.

[catatac]

People are still arguing this? There is a 99.9% chance that an 8-3 Griz teams gets in, and there's a 99.9% chance that a 7-4 Griz team does not. End of discussion.