MT schools in the FCS playoffs

[Grizaddict]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Maybe. Mostly that depends on who the other bubble teams are. Beating NDSU helps, but doing it on 4th & goal as time runs out makes it look pretty fluky. But in fairness, if the Griz dominate ISU, win in Bozeman by 2 TDs and beat ISU at home, there might be hope for a playoff game.

But there is still no way on gods green earth that 4 BSC teams make the playoffs. Do the griz get in before an 8-9 win SUU? Griz better hope for the Cats to stomp them this week. Lets say PSU loses to both SUU & EWU. Will the Griz get in at 7-4 vs the team that curb stomped them? Maybe EWU loses 3 straight and misses the playoffs?

Harsh truth: The Big Sky has been a really bad (scholarship) football conference for 3-4 years. The Big Sky has exactly 1 good out of conference win in 2 years. Last year: 3 teams, 1 win-over University of San Diego (EWU vs UM is basically another conference game, and EWU got wrecked by Illinios St). Right now EWU isn't even a legit top 20 team, but they will get in a long time before the Griz do. The whole conference is in serious need of a makeover.

You're putting all your stock in the wrong places though. The committee doesn't look at scores and/or who beat who by how many points. They look only at wins, losses, and SRS (simple rating system) which mainly takes into account strength of schedule. A win over NDSU, whether by 1 point or 14 points, is simply an upset win over what was the #1 ranked team.

Using your theory, that is like saying the committee would say, "well the Griz only lost by 1 to a ranked (at the time) Cal Poly, and only lost by 3 in OT to Weber, and only lost by 10 to a ranked Liberty team so those losses aren't too shabby." No they look simply at who did they beat, who did they lose to, and what was their strength of schedule. If Griz get to 7-4 with wins over highly ranked NDSU and EWU (which would put them at a final ranking somewhere in the 15-16 range) and the ability to put 25k people in a home playoff game, then yes they make the tourney all day, every day. Especially with expanded brackets and 24 teams now getting in, the Big Sky getting 4 teams in is more than likely. But that fourth team has to have 7 D1 wins and a quality SRS rank.

A little incorrect here. The committee has a meeting every week and do their ranking every week. The NDSU win at the beginning of the year, doesn't mean that much now, when you follow up with the losses and games like last night. How you trend at the end of the year carries a lot of weight.

This comes from questions answered by Dannen from UNI last year on the committee.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What you said has some merit indeed. But you missed my point completely. I was stating the fact that score differential plays no role in the at-large playoff selections. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter the score. Earlier oneacat was saying the Griz would have to beat the Cats and EWU by multiple TDs to have a shot at all. I was simply telling him that a win is a win and a loss is a loss and score differential has nothing to do with it. SRS simply looks at wins, losses, strength of schedule, and balances out the wins/losses with a point system for whether or not they occurred at home or on the road. A loss on the road doesn't hurt you as much as a loss at home. They do this to creat a more equal playing field based on strength of schedule. This is exactly why the MVFC got 5 teams in last year and one of then (Indiana st) was only a 6 win team. The only time score differential and other factors come into play EVER is when there are two teams with the same record who are on the bubble. This is when the committee will dive deeper and look at common opponents, score differential in those games, where those games were won or lost, and other factors.

[Mosey cue]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Maybe. Mostly that depends on who the other bubble teams are. Beating NDSU helps, but doing it on 4th & goal as time runs out makes it look pretty fluky. But in fairness, if the Griz dominate ISU, win in Bozeman by 2 TDs and beat ISU at home, there might be hope for a playoff game.

But there is still no way on gods green earth that 4 BSC teams make the playoffs. Do the griz get in before an 8-9 win SUU? Griz better hope for the Cats to stomp them this week. Lets say PSU loses to both SUU & EWU. Will the Griz get in at 7-4 vs the team that curb stomped them? Maybe EWU loses 3 straight and misses the playoffs?

Harsh truth: The Big Sky has been a really bad (scholarship) football conference for 3-4 years. The Big Sky has exactly 1 good out of conference win in 2 years. Last year: 3 teams, 1 win-over University of San Diego (EWU vs UM is basically another conference game, and EWU got wrecked by Illinios St). Right now EWU isn't even a legit top 20 team, but they will get in a long time before the Griz do. The whole conference is in serious need of a makeover.

You're putting all your stock in the wrong places though. The committee doesn't look at scores and/or who beat who by how many points. They look only at wins, losses, and SRS (simple rating system) which mainly takes into account strength of schedule. A win over NDSU, whether by 1 point or 14 points, is simply an upset win over what was the #1 ranked team.

Using your theory, that is like saying the committee would say, "well the Griz only lost by 1 to a ranked (at the time) Cal Poly, and only lost by 3 in OT to Weber, and only lost by 10 to a ranked Liberty team so those losses aren't too shabby." No they look simply at who did they beat, who did they lose to, and what was their strength of schedule. If Griz get to 7-4 with wins over highly ranked NDSU and EWU (which would put them at a final ranking somewhere in the 15-16 range) and the ability to put 25k people in a home playoff game, then yes they make the tourney all day, every day. Especially with expanded brackets and 24 teams now getting in, the Big Sky getting 4 teams in is more than likely. But that fourth team has to have 7 D1 wins and a quality SRS rank.

A little incorrect here. The committee has a meeting every week and do their ranking every week. The NDSU win at the beginning of the year, doesn't mean that much now, when you follow up with the losses and games like last night. How you trend at the end of the year carries a lot of weight.

This comes from questions answered by Dannen from UNI last year on the committee.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

What you said has some merit indeed. But you missed my point completely. I was stating the fact that score differential plays no role in the at-large playoff selections. A win is a win and a loss is a loss. It doesn't matter the score. Earlier oneacat was saying the Griz would have to beat the Cats and EWU by multiple TDs to have a shot at all. I was simply telling him that a win is a win and a loss is a loss and score differential has nothing to do with it. SRS simply looks at wins, losses, strength of schedule, and balances out the wins/losses with a point system for whether or not they occurred at home or on the road. A loss on the road doesn't hurt you as much as a loss at home. They do this to creat a more equal playing field based on strength of schedule. This is exactly why the MVFC got 5 teams in last year and one of then (Indiana st) was only a 6 win team. The only time score differential and other factors come into play EVER is when there are two teams with the same record who are on the bubble. This is when the committee will dive deeper and look at common opponents, score differential in those games, where those games were won or lost, and other factors.

When looking at it and ranking weekly during the meetings, score differential does take effect, to think differently does not make any sense.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Mosey cue]

You might want to look at Indiana State last year. 7 wins not 6
Tennessee Tech OVC
Ball State FBS
Liberty Big South
UNI MVFC
S. Illinois MVFC
Missouri State MVFC
Youngstown State MVFC




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[Grizaddict]

You might want to look at Indiana State last year. 7 wins not 6
Tennessee Tech OVC
Ball State FBS
Liberty Big South
UNI MVFC
S. Illinois MVFC
Missouri State MVFC
Youngstown State MVFC




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You are correct about Indiana St having 7 wins. It was their 5 losses (due to 12 games last year) and still getting in was the anomaly I was thinking of.

You are incorrect on score differential. I will take the NCAA's word over yours any day, sorry. This is directly from the NCAA pertaining to SRS. Pay close attention to the bottom where it says score differential HAS NO EFFECT. I already posted it once but you obviously ignored it:

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... =4&t=38044

[onceacat]

You might want to look at Indiana State last year. 7 wins not 6
Tennessee Tech OVC
Ball State FBS
Liberty Big South
UNI MVFC
S. Illinois MVFC
Missouri State MVFC
Youngstown State MVFC




Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

You are correct about Indiana St having 7 wins. It was their 5 losses (due to 12 games last year) and still getting in was the anomaly I was thinking of.

You are incorrect on score differential. I will take the NCAA's word over yours any day, sorry. This is directly from the NCAA pertaining to SRS. Pay close attention to the bottom where it says score differential HAS NO EFFECT. I already posted it once but you obviously ignored it:

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... =4&t=38044

It says that score differential has no effect on SRS, and that SRS is ONE component that the committee uses to decide who makes the playoffs. Sorry, I checked the link, but I didn't think it was worth pointing out. Considering that you pointed out (correctly) that the committee will consider home game attendance, I think you've pretty well proven that the committee looks at a "body of work" not wholly dependent on W-L, SRS, or any other single component.

It doesn't really matter, because there is no way the Griz can finish in the top 20 in SRS (I'm guessing) because their schedule was so weak. They were #20 last year, with a far better strenght of schedule, then they laid an egg in the playoffs. I just don't see it happening.

[onceacat]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

Put this into your pipe and smoke it. UNDs 2 remaining games are against UNCO and Poly. I think they will lose to Poly, but who knows. But if they win, its possible that there are 6 teams finishing at 6-2 in conference.

[Grizaddict]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

Put this into your pipe and smoke it. UNDs 2 remaining games are against UNCO and Poly. I think they will lose to Poly, but who knows. But if they win, its possible that there are 6 teams finishing at 6-2 in conference.

Is this directed at me or just everyone in general? I'm not worried about UND as the Griz took care of them. I'm not worried about NAU either as Griz also took care of them. That means Griz win any tie breakers over them from heads up play alone. Or maybe you were just wanting to point out how all these teams could end up with the same records and how that is pretty nuts in and of itself.

I just realized that UND has 3 conference losses by the way (Idaho St, Weber, UM) so they will not be 6-2 in conference anyways.

[onceacat]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

Put this into your pipe and smoke it. UNDs 2 remaining games are against UNCO and Poly. I think they will lose to Poly, but who knows. But if they win, its possible that there are 6 teams finishing at 6-2 in conference.

Is this directed at me or just everyone in general? I'm not worried about UND as the Griz took care of them. I'm not worried about NAU either as Griz also took care of them. That means Griz win any tie breakers over them from heads up play alone. Or maybe you were just wanting to point out how all these teams could end up with the same records and how that is pretty nuts in and of itself.

I just realized that UND has 3 conference losses by the way (Idaho St, Weber, UM) so they will not be 6-2 in conference anyways.

No, not directed at you, and you are correct, that UND has 3 conf losses-my bad. But they could still end up at 7-4, and be in the hunt for an invite. UM has had (so far) one of the easiest schedules in the BSC (per Sagarin), and will have a loss in the head to head to PSU, who will have a loss to UND, who, oh jeez. Maybe you are right, rather than try to figure it out, they'll just give it to whoever can put more butts in seats.

Actually, my point on that was how stupid it is to have a conference with 13 teams, too many of who don't play each other unless you are FBS and can play a championship game.

[Grizaddict]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

Put this into your pipe and smoke it. UNDs 2 remaining games are against UNCO and Poly. I think they will lose to Poly, but who knows. But if they win, its possible that there are 6 teams finishing at 6-2 in conference.

Is this directed at me or just everyone in general? I'm not worried about UND as the Griz took care of them. I'm not worried about NAU either as Griz also took care of them. That means Griz win any tie breakers over them from heads up play alone. Or maybe you were just wanting to point out how all these teams could end up with the same records and how that is pretty nuts in and of itself.

I just realized that UND has 3 conference losses by the way (Idaho St, Weber, UM) so they will not be 6-2 in conference anyways.

No, not directed at you, and you are correct, that UND has 3 conf losses-my bad. But they could still end up at 7-4, and be in the hunt for an invite. UM has had (so far) one of the easiest schedules in the BSC (per Sagarin), and will have a loss in the head to head to PSU, who will have a loss to UND, who, oh jeez. Maybe you are right, rather than try to figure it out, they'll just give it to whoever can put more butts in seats.

Actually, my point on that was how stupid it is to have a conference with 13 teams, too many of who don't play each other unless you are FBS and can play a championship game.

Your last point I agree with completely..... 13 teams in the league and no clear conference champ winner is frustrating. If both the Griz and UND are 7-4 at the end, the Griz get the nod because of their heads up win over UND. In that same scenario if the Griz beat EWU this weekend then the eags are also at 4 losses and the Griz having the heads up win over them gives the Griz the nod as well. When it's a tying record, if I'm not mistaken, they look first at heads up play for the deciding factor.

[Grizaddict]

To your point, with a 13 team conference, here is how messy it can be just for a tie breaker to determine the automatic playoff qualifier when teams finish with the same record. Bottom line, if a bunch of teams finish at 6-2 they are all conference champs. The auto qualifier goes to the team who owns the tiebreaker based on the following;

Big Sky Tiebreaker
When two or more Conference members are tied in the final Conference standings, the tie shall be broken for the purposes of determining the NCAA FCS automatic bid only, and shall be determined on the following basis:
1. Head-to-head competition.
2. Record against common SCHEDULED CONFERENCE opponents in descending order.
3. Record vs. common Conference opponents played as NON-CONFERENCE games in
descending order.
4. Record against common NON-CONFERENCE opponents.
5. Sagarin Ratings.
6. Coin Flip

Explanations and Examples
No. 1: This applies to ALL head-to-head games, even those played as non-conference.
No. 2: In the scenario where there is no head-to-head contest to utilize as a tiebreaker, if teams A and B are tied and both play team C in a CONFERENCE game, the results of those games will be used in a tiebreaker. However, if team A plays team C in a CONFERENCE game, but team B plays team C in a non-conference game (i.e., not scheduled by the league), that game WILL NOT BE USED in a tiebreaker
No. 3: If teams A and B both scheduled Conference team C as a non-conference game (i.e. neither game was scheduled by the league), the results of those games can be used as a tiebreaker).
No. 4: If conference teams A and B both scheduled the same non-conference opponent (FBS, FCS, Division II or NAIA), the results of that game could be used in a tiebreaker)