MT schools in the FCS playoffs

[grizzh8r]

When was the last time the state of Montana was not represented in the 1-AA/FCS playoffs? At this point, the Cats are out and one more loss will knock UM out. Not so sure they aren't out at this point anyhow... I'm guessing late 80's or early 90's?

A bit surreal...

[technoCat]

I think we might be heading for some dark days. Other teams with more money or better recruiting bases are finally putting it together. Apparently fan support really is not that important. Well it was a good run although most of it benefitted the team across the divide. At least it will be fun watching the offense put up video game numbers for however Cramsey sticks around and Prukop stays healthy...

[onceacat]

Um making the playoffs would take a perfect storm of help from across the country. No way bsc gets 4 teams. They are out.

[LongTimeCatFan]

When was the last time the state of Montana was not represented in the 1-AA/FCS playoffs? At this point, the Cats are out and one more loss will knock UM out. Not so sure they aren't out at this point anyhow... I'm guessing late 80's or early 90's?

A bit surreal...

1992

[91catAlum]

Um making the playoffs would take a perfect storm of help from across the country. No way bsc gets 4 teams. They are out.

If the griz win out, they're in. Their win over ndsu is a better win than a lot of other 7 win teams will have at the end of the season.

[onceacat]

Um making the playoffs would take a perfect storm of help from across the country. No way bsc gets 4 teams. They are out.

If the griz win out, they're in. Their win over ndsu is a better win than a lot of other 7 win teams will have at the end of the season.

And their loss to Weber at home will be the worst of any team on the bubble. OK, if they go 3-0 and win by an average of 25, they have an off chance of sneaking in. I still don't think the Big Sky gets 4, and no way even with 3 wins will UM look better than SUU (unless SUU drops 2or 3). There are probably 5 teams each in the CAA and MVFC that are better than the best team in the BSC right now. BSC has been awful all year. The only reason we get bubble teams in is because we can fill up stadiums.

Yesterday might go down as the worst day in Montana football in the last 30-40 years.

[grizatwork]

Does anyone really think the Griz will win out? After the off the field stuff last night, I see a distracted team that will be hard pressed to win on the road in Pocatello. EWU and MSU look bad to me as well. 5-6 is a posibility. Could even be 4-7.

[91catAlum]

Does anyone really think the Griz will win out? After the off the field stuff last night, I see a distracted team that will be hard pressed to win on the road in Pocatello. EWU and MSU look bad to me as well. 5-6 is a posibility. Could even be 4-7.

What off the field stuff?

The griz still have a decent defense, and seemed like they played better with Gus under center, who is coming back soon... so yes I think they have a chance to win out. Not a great chance, but a chance.

Edit: oh THAT off the field stuff...

[onceacat]

Does anyone really think the Griz will win out? After the off the field stuff last night, I see a distracted team that will be hard pressed to win on the road in Pocatello. EWU and MSU look bad to me as well. 5-6 is a posibility. Could even be 4-7.

Nope. Even before that, I think Cat-Griz decides which team finishes with a winning record

[grizzh8r]

Does anyone really think the Griz will win out? After the off the field stuff last night, I see a distracted team that will be hard pressed to win on the road in Pocatello. EWU and MSU look bad to me as well. 5-6 is a posibility. Could even be 4-7.

Nope. Even before that, I think Cat-Griz decides which team finishes with a winning record

Maybe. I would not at all be surprised if both teams could come into cat/griz at 4-6. You know Kramer dislikes both UM and MSU and will have his ISU kids worked up into a frenzy the next two weeks. Both teams have struggled in ISU's barn in recent seasons.

SUU Defense is legit and I have no confidence that the Cats will win tomorrow.

If WSU can beat UM in Missoula, EWU can too.

Ugh.

[Grizaddict]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

[LongTimeCatFan]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Oh stop it. Stop getting our hopes up

[onceacat]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Maybe. Mostly that depends on who the other bubble teams are. Beating NDSU helps, but doing it on 4th & goal as time runs out makes it look pretty fluky. But in fairness, if the Griz dominate ISU, win in Bozeman by 2 TDs and beat ISU at home, there might be hope for a playoff game.

But there is still no way on gods green earth that 4 BSC teams make the playoffs. Do the griz get in before an 8-9 win SUU? Griz better hope for the Cats to stomp them this week. Lets say PSU loses to both SUU & EWU. Will the Griz get in at 7-4 vs the team that curb stomped them? Maybe EWU loses 3 straight and misses the playoffs?

Harsh truth: The Big Sky has been a really bad (scholarship) football conference for 3-4 years. The Big Sky has exactly 1 good out of conference win in 2 years. Last year: 3 teams, 1 win-over University of San Diego (EWU vs UM is basically another conference game, and EWU got wrecked by Illinios St). Right now EWU isn't even a legit top 20 team, but they will get in a long time before the Griz do. The whole conference is in serious need of a makeover.

[Grizaddict]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Maybe. Mostly that depends on who the other bubble teams are. Beating NDSU helps, but doing it on 4th & goal as time runs out makes it look pretty fluky. But in fairness, if the Griz dominate ISU, win in Bozeman by 2 TDs and beat ISU at home, there might be hope for a playoff game.

But there is still no way on gods green earth that 4 BSC teams make the playoffs. Do the griz get in before an 8-9 win SUU? Griz better hope for the Cats to stomp them this week. Lets say PSU loses to both SUU & EWU. Will the Griz get in at 7-4 vs the team that curb stomped them? Maybe EWU loses 3 straight and misses the playoffs?

Harsh truth: The Big Sky has been a really bad (scholarship) football conference for 3-4 years. The Big Sky has exactly 1 good out of conference win in 2 years. Last year: 3 teams, 1 win-over University of San Diego (EWU vs UM is basically another conference game, and EWU got wrecked by Illinios St). Right now EWU isn't even a legit top 20 team, but they will get in a long time before the Griz do. The whole conference is in serious need of a makeover.

You're putting all your stock in the wrong places though. The committee doesn't look at scores and/or who beat who by how many points. They look only at wins, losses, and SRS (simple rating system) which mainly takes into account strength of schedule. A win over NDSU, whether by 1 point or 14 points, is simply an upset win over what was the #1 ranked team.

Using your theory, that is like saying the committee would say, "well the Griz only lost by 1 to a ranked (at the time) Cal Poly, and only lost by 3 in OT to Weber, and only lost by 10 to a ranked Liberty team so those losses aren't too shabby." No they look simply at who did they beat, who did they lose to, and what was their strength of schedule. If Griz get to 7-4 with wins over highly ranked NDSU and EWU (which would put them at a final ranking somewhere in the 15-16 range) and the ability to put 25k people in a home playoff game, then yes they make the tourney all day, every day. Especially with expanded brackets and 24 teams now getting in, the Big Sky getting 4 teams in is more than likely. But that fourth team has to have 7 D1 wins and a quality SRS rank.

[Grizaddict]

Further proof of what I just stated above. It has nothing to do with score differential.....simply wins, losses, and quality of opponent/strength of schedule:

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... =4&t=38044

[onceacat]

Further proof of what I just stated above. It has nothing to do with score differential.....simply wins, losses, and quality of opponent/strength of schedule:

http://www.championshipsubdivision.com/ ... =4&t=38044

As of today, there are 19 schools with 2 or fewer losses in playoff conferences (not counting Ivies, Pioneer League, etc). There are at least (4) 4 loss MVFC teams that will, in all likelihood, get a nod for the playoffs before the Griz. Even Southern Illinois at 3-5 right now will probably have a higher SRS than the Griz. And if the conference didn't get 4 teams in last year, why would it get 4 teams this year, when the conference has regressed pretty substantially?

I think a 6 win MVFC team (Northern Iowa, Youngstown State, Indiana State, Western Illinois-Heck, even South Dakota or Southern Illinois) make the field before a 7 win griz team with all their crappy losses (4-4 Liberty, 2-6 Poly, 4-5 Weber...) I just don't see how you get the griz SRS high enough to ever be competitive.

The #9 team in the MVFC might be better than the #3 team in the Big Sky right now. Doesn't look good for 4 playoff teams.

I'll concede that the math says that the Griz could still make the playoffs. But you can't really draw up a scenario where that happens in this universe.

[onceacat]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

[91catAlum]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

I disagree. SUU is for real. They had their share of unforced errors too - #11 dropped 2 TD balls on one drive in the second quarter.

They are big and physical, the defense really covers well, and they can get after the QB. Nobody has shut our passing game down like they did today. We had some success running the ball right at them, but obviously not enough.
And they just went into Bobcat stadium and beat a team that rarely loses at home.
They'll probably win the conference, and they'll be a tough out in the playoffs.

[Mosey cue]

I will guaranteed that a 7-4 Griz team with wins over NDSU and EWU will make the playoffs.

What I will not guarantee is a 7-4 Griz team. I actually think the Griz match up better with EWU at home than we do with Prukop and Cats with a chip on their shoulder and nothing to lose. I say this because Prukop can run like an antelope. You saw what a dual threat can do to the Griz D last week against PSU. EWU and West not so much. He's a pocket passer and not much threat to run. Much like Cookus from NAU and you saw how the Griz D handled him much better.

The other reason I can guarantee the Griz are in at 7-4 is because they'd probably even host a playoff with the bidding system in place. NCAA at the end of the day is a business and in the business of $$. 25k in Griz stadium makes good money for the NCAA. Sad but true.

Maybe. Mostly that depends on who the other bubble teams are. Beating NDSU helps, but doing it on 4th & goal as time runs out makes it look pretty fluky. But in fairness, if the Griz dominate ISU, win in Bozeman by 2 TDs and beat ISU at home, there might be hope for a playoff game.

But there is still no way on gods green earth that 4 BSC teams make the playoffs. Do the griz get in before an 8-9 win SUU? Griz better hope for the Cats to stomp them this week. Lets say PSU loses to both SUU & EWU. Will the Griz get in at 7-4 vs the team that curb stomped them? Maybe EWU loses 3 straight and misses the playoffs?

Harsh truth: The Big Sky has been a really bad (scholarship) football conference for 3-4 years. The Big Sky has exactly 1 good out of conference win in 2 years. Last year: 3 teams, 1 win-over University of San Diego (EWU vs UM is basically another conference game, and EWU got wrecked by Illinios St). Right now EWU isn't even a legit top 20 team, but they will get in a long time before the Griz do. The whole conference is in serious need of a makeover.

You're putting all your stock in the wrong places though. The committee doesn't look at scores and/or who beat who by how many points. They look only at wins, losses, and SRS (simple rating system) which mainly takes into account strength of schedule. A win over NDSU, whether by 1 point or 14 points, is simply an upset win over what was the #1 ranked team.

Using your theory, that is like saying the committee would say, "well the Griz only lost by 1 to a ranked (at the time) Cal Poly, and only lost by 3 in OT to Weber, and only lost by 10 to a ranked Liberty team so those losses aren't too shabby." No they look simply at who did they beat, who did they lose to, and what was their strength of schedule. If Griz get to 7-4 with wins over highly ranked NDSU and EWU (which would put them at a final ranking somewhere in the 15-16 range) and the ability to put 25k people in a home playoff game, then yes they make the tourney all day, every day. Especially with expanded brackets and 24 teams now getting in, the Big Sky getting 4 teams in is more than likely. But that fourth team has to have 7 D1 wins and a quality SRS rank.

A little incorrect here. The committee has a meeting every week and do their ranking every week. The NDSU win at the beginning of the year, doesn't mean that much now, when you follow up with the losses and games like last night. How you trend at the end of the year carries a lot of weight.

This comes from questions answered by Dannen from UNI last year on the committee.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

[onceacat]

Bump this.

I wan't impressed with SUU. I thought this Cats team could have/should have won. Far too many unforced errors on the offense. At any rate, SUU needs to finish out with PSU & NAU

EWU gets blown out at home by a fair to middling NAU team. Games at PSU & UM to finish.

PSU loses to a really bad UNCO team. Final games against SUU & EWU.

If NAU wins out, they will be at 6-2. Easy to envision SUU losing 2 to finish the season at 6-2. PSU wins at SUU & EWOO (maybe). I can see anything from a 4 way tie at 6-2 to a 5-3 EWU team missing the playoffs. Any one of these 4 teams could also flop and fail to reach the magic 7 game threshold. Throw in the outside chance of 2 UM wins, and (I'm still trying to wrap my head around this...) Is it possible to have 5 teams finish at 6-2 in conference(?)

Two really obvious points: (1) the BSC has WAY too many teams. This is stupid. (2) The Big Sky doesn't have a single legit playoff team; whoever wins will probably get a seed because of longtime history, but they don't deserve one. PSU (losses to UND & UNCO-ouch!) is the most likely candidate for a playoff win. OK, (3) Seriously, the Cats can't compete with this motley crew? Ouch.

I disagree. SUU is for real. They had their share of unforced errors too - #11 dropped 2 TD balls on one drive in the second quarter.

They are big and physical, the defense really covers well, and they can get after the QB. Nobody has shut our passing game down like they did today. We had some success running the ball right at them, but obviously not enough.
And they just went into Bobcat stadium and beat a team that rarely loses at home.
They'll probably win the conference, and they'll be a tough out in the playoffs.

I'm probably putting a lot of stock in the 55-10 loss to SDSU early this year. SUU is yet to beat a team with a winning record, and I'm willing to bet a growler of IPA they lose at least one of their final 2, and probably a 30% chance of losing both. You could be right-maybe SUU played pretty badly and still came out with a win. I haven't watched them, I'm just looking at box scores, but I think they are an early out if they make the playoffs.