Is there still a chance at a playoff?

BobCatFan · Post by **BobCatFan** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:30 pm

Can someone post who the bubble teams play this weekend and who should win those games. This might clear up a lot of confusion.

Thanks

GrizinWashington · Post by **GrizinWashington** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 6:34 pm

BobCatFan wrote:Can someone post who the bubble teams play this weekend and who should win those games. This might clear up a lot of confusion.

Thanks

See: http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.as ... 989656.htm

Dougherty has a breakdown of every team, who they play, and what probably needs to happen for them to make it.

SeeHarg · Post by **SeeHarg** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 7:25 pm

If you look at the regionalization, I think chances for the Cats go from slim to astronomically slim.

assumptions
- western region includes Big Sky, Great West, Gateway, and Southland
- Cats beat the Griz

In this case, we have eight spots, and six are filled:

1. Hampton (seed, brought to the west because the east has three seeds) MEAC autobid
2. Northern Iowa (seed with Griz loss) Gateway autobid
3. Cal Poly (who will win against Idaho State and be 8-3)
4. EWU (who could realistically be 6-5)
5. Montana (8-3)
6. Southland autobid - TSU, Nicholls, McNeese
7. open
8. open

that leaves two spots, and some good Gateway teams out of the mix. I think Youngstown goes at 8-3 in a rough conference.

So that leaves one spot, with the Gateway with two teams in and Big Sky with two teams in. The pivotal game is SIU vs. NDSU... if the Bison can win this one, SIU will be out because of their humiliation at the hands of Illinois State, 7-4 Illinois State has its GPI take a hit, and MSU's GPI will increase a bit. If SIU wins, then they can make a pretty good case for going at 8-3 in the tough Gateway.

Let's assume, though, NDSU wins this weekend, so that one spot remains open. Then MSU has to clamor against also 7-4 Illinois State, and the #2 and 3 teams in the Southland. If this was the case, I think the Cats might have an outside shot.

BUT, add in that the Furman-Nooga game this weekend may result in Furman getting a seed instead of Northern Iowa and therefore sending another top 4 team from the east to the western bracket. Also consider that there are a lot of bubble teams in the east that could be sent west - there are 10 legit teams there (App, UNH, Furman, GeoSo, Lehigh, Colgate, the OVC champ auto, UMass, Richmond, Coastal, SC State), but only eight spots. The Committee has shown a prediliction for sending eastern teams west if they can't fit 'em into the eastern bracket.

Sorry, gang. Slim and none.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 8:07 pm

SeeHarg wrote:If you look at the regionalization, I think chances for the Cats go from slim to astronomically slim.

assumptions
- western region includes Big Sky, Great West, Gateway, and Southland
- Cats beat the Griz

In this case, we have eight spots, and six are filled:

1. Hampton (seed, brought to the west because the east has three seeds) MEAC autobid
2. Northern Iowa (seed with Griz loss) Gateway autobid
3. Cal Poly (who will win against Idaho State and be 8-3)
4. EWU (who could realistically be 6-5)
5. Montana (8-3)
6. Southland autobid - TSU, Nicholls, McNeese
7. open
8. open

that leaves two spots, and some good Gateway teams out of the mix. I think Youngstown goes at 8-3 in a rough conference.

So that leaves one spot, with the Gateway with two teams in and Big Sky with two teams in. The pivotal game is SIU vs. NDSU... if the Bison can win this one, SIU will be out because of their humiliation at the hands of Illinois State, 7-4 Illinois State has its GPI take a hit, and MSU's GPI will increase a bit. If SIU wins, then they can make a pretty good case for going at 8-3 in the tough Gateway.

Let's assume, though, NDSU wins this weekend, so that one spot remains open. Then MSU has to clamor against also 7-4 Illinois State, and the #2 and 3 teams in the Southland. If this was the case, I think the Cats might have an outside shot.

BUT, add in that the Furman-Nooga game this weekend may result in Furman getting a seed instead of Northern Iowa and therefore sending another top 4 team from the east to the western bracket. Also consider that there are a lot of bubble teams in the east that could be sent west - there are 10 legit teams there (App, UNH, Furman, GeoSo, Lehigh, Colgate, the OVC champ auto, UMass, Richmond, Coastal, SC State), but only eight spots. The Committee has shown a prediliction for sending eastern teams west if they can't fit 'em into the eastern bracket.

Sorry, gang. Slim and none.

harg,
regionalization has NOTHING TO DO WITH AT LARGE SELECTION. That's why the potential for the Bobcats has nothing to do with whether teams like Cal Poly make it or not. At large bids are evaluated on a NATIONWIDE basis. Please see Wise's selection committee guidelines; it spells this out for you.

SeeHarg · Post by **SeeHarg** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:13 pm

I read it, barechest. Facts are okay but the analysis was a bit lacking in my opinion.

If you think available slots in the regional brackets has nothing to do with the selections, you're kidding yourself. More specifically, if you think the committee is going to take a western team and put them in the eastern bracket and displace an ostensibly evenly-qulaified eastern team to do it, well... it's just a little delusional is all. My opinion based on observation.

thuss · Post by **thuss** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 12:16 pm

lets just hold off playoff talk now til 4:00 p.m on Sat. Everybody understands that we don't even have a shot until we throttle the griz. I expect a heated debate when all of the scores are in Sat.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 2:21 pm

Harg,

Facts are ok? What should we go by, your opinion?

Do some research from past years. If you read my post, you should know where to find the info. My analysis was quite accurate using the historical data. And nowhere did I say teams would be equally qualified. That is why they have the GPI. Using that, and if we move up like we should after beating the Griz, and get some help with some key losses, we will be MORE QUALIFIED! I guess we will have to wait and see what happens on the field. At this point it is all speculation, my opinion included. And NO regionalization has nothing to do with the selection of teams, only has to do with making the bracket once the most qualified 16 teams are selected. You can go to the NCAA website and read it for yourself if you don't believe me. Or maybe the NCAA is just lying to the general public, but somehow based on what they stand for, I doubt that is the case.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:19 pm

I can't believe I'm doing this, but some are just so uninformed, I must continue.

Regions in 1-AA football break down as follows:
West-Big Sky, Southland, Great West(playoff eligible teams only), Gateway.

East-A10, Southern, OVC, MEAC, Patriot, Big South(most others don't matter)

You can see by break down the east should get more teams than the west based on sheer numbers. The break down the past 3 years has gone like this:

2002
(W) McNeese(AUTO)
(W) MSU(AUTO)
(W) Montana
(W) NW ST
(E) Villanova
(E) Furman
(E) N'eastern(AUTO)
(E) Fordam(AUTO)
(E) Ga. So.(AUTO)
(E) B-Cookman(AUTO)
(E) App. St.
(E) Maine
(W) W. Ky
(E) Murray St.(AUTO)
(W) W. Illinois(AUTO)
(E) E. Illinois
The remaining at large teams were 8 of the top 8 GPI teams left minus auto bids.

2003
(W) McNeese(AUTO)
(W) NAU
(E) FAU
(E) Colgate(AUTO)
(E) B. Cookman
(E) Umass
(W) UM
(W) W. Illinois
(E) Wofford(AUTO)
(E) NC A&T(AUTO)
(W) W. KY
(E) Jacksonville St.(AUTO)
(E) Delaware(AUTO)
(W) SIU(AUTO)
(W) NO. Iowa
(W) MSU(AUTO)
The remaining at large teams were 8 of the top 9 GPI teams left minus auto bids.

2004
(W) So. Illinois(AUTO)
(W) E. Washington
(W) W. KY
(W) UM(AUTO)
(W) Sam Houston(AUTO)
(W) NW ST
(E) Ga. So.
(E) New Hampshire
(E)Bill and Mary(AUTO)
(E) Hampton(AUTO)
(E) Delaware
(E) Lafayette(AUTO)
(E) Lehigh
(E) James Madison
(E)Furman(AUTO)
(E) Jacksonville St.(AUTO)
The remaining at large teams were 8 of the top 9 GPI teams left minus auto bids.

the point of this excercise is to show that regionalization has nothing to do with picking the teams. In 2 years above, the west had 6 of 16, the other year they had 8 of 16. And it was all based on GPI. In years when the west conferences are stronger, we will get more teams. History shows that. If you look at this year's GPI conference rankings, the West has the 1st, 2nd, 4th and 5th rated conferences. With the Southern Conf. being third and the A10 being 6th. So expect more teams from out west. And very few teams from the A10. There is no east coast bias, if our western teams perform well on the field, and this year that is the case.

If the 3rd rated conference(Southern) can get 3 teams in this year(which most people agree), why can't the 1st rated BSC, when all the teams are tied for 1st in the league?

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:26 pm

wise one,

When are you ever going to learn that the griz fans HATE to be confused by facts!

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:48 pm

Maybe because the selection committee is still stuck on 4 losses is bad, and the three SoCon teams all have 3 or less loses, and are located in the East.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 3:55 pm

ONE MORE TIME FOR THE FACTUALLY IMPARED.

THERE IS NO EAST COST BIAS, ONLY MORE TEAMS.(THIS IS FOR YOU GRIZ/HOUSE). IF THE WEST IS STRONG LIKE THIS YEAR, EXPECT US TO BE REWARDED LIKE IN O3 WITH 8 OF 16 TEAMS. EERILY SIMILAR TO THIS YEAR, IF YOU REMEMBER IN 03, THE CATS GOT THE AUTO WITH A LESS THAN STELLAR RECORD, BUT THE COMMITTEE DIDN'T KEEP OUT OTHER DESERVING WESTERN TEAMS FROM THE BSC(NAU AND MONTANA). DON'T GET HUNG UP ON 4 LOSSES, IF THERE ARE NOT ENOUGH DESERVING 8-3 TEAMS, A 4 LOSS TEAM WILL GET AWARDED AN AT LARGE BID.

THE CATS NEED HELP, BUT IF WE WIN AND GET THE HELP, DON'T BE DISAPOINTED WHEN THERE ARE TWO TEAMS IN THE FIELD THAT HAVE BEATEN YOU!

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:06 pm

Wise one, i was being sarcastic with my response.

By the way Old Wise One, what makes you so wise?

Also in 03, neither UM or NAU had 4 loses.

bobcatmaniac · Post by **bobcatmaniac** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:16 pm

Way to go griz, you got the elder one yelling!

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:19 pm

Years

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:27 pm

Also, the NCAA condsiders the Great West, Southland, and Big Sky as the west region, hence is Western Kentucky,Western Illinois, Southern Illinois, and Norther Iowa really western teams.

KillintheGriz · Post by **KillintheGriz** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 4:32 pm

Lulay makes something happen when there isn't any hope, fans are disheartened and the opposing teams dance in celebration thinking they have it won. Well, the magic of Travis Lulay will make reporters--calling for the final act in a wonderful career ending on Saturday--embarassingly choke on their words. Kramer and the Bobcat coaches will see that it has been the heart, fortitude and sheer willpower of#14 that makes four leafed clovers spring from frozen football tundra. For Travis Lulay, there has almost always been an encore. At a time when almost everyone, including the coaches, think the season has ended, the magic of Lulay will provide the encore--the MSU Fighting Bobcats a stage in the first round of the play-offs. "Old Wise One" has shown the mathematical reasons the Cats are still in the hunt. But we all will know it is the red headed #14 Irish luck that will be the reason the Cats season doesn't end on Saturday.

GO CATS!!!!!

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Fri Nov 18, 2005 5:31 pm

Yes Griz house, the NCAA has always considered the Gateway football conference to be in the west( in terms of position the bracket). At least as long as there has been a Gateway conference.

SeeHarg · Post by **SeeHarg** » Sat Nov 19, 2005 4:10 pm

Years made you wise, but what was it that made you such a bitch?

The mathematical hunt is different that the real hunt. Nevertheless, based on what's going on at 2 p.m. Pacific time, I'm prepared to change my official position to "Cats may have a shot at a berth." Mmmm, crow.

seataccat · Post by **seataccat** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 12:33 am

SeeHarg
I think your original analysis was right on. There is no doubt that region plays a part in the playoff selection. The cats chances are slim to very slim but I am still holding out hope. We had our fun during the Cat/Griz game now lets jump on the griz bandwagon.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Sun Nov 20, 2005 1:48 am

I've been poring over the results of todays games, and the only thing that helped MSU was a UMass loss. All the other teams pretty much won. That being said, here is my bone of contention:

1) We ended up being number 2 in the Big Sky, which according to GPI, was the best conf. in 1-AA, top to bottom (plus, 5 teams with winning records) this season. As of last weeks' poll, 4 Big Sky teams were in the top 20 in GPI (UM, MSU, PSU, EWU).

2) We beat the Griz (the #3 team in the nation, #1 GPI), who ended up being behind us in the conf. standings at #3, and having the same number of D-1 wins.

3) After beating the Griz, Our GPI will probably be somewhere in the 11-14 range, with most autobid teams ahead of us, and others who wrapped up berths. (see wise one's posts regarding GPI and how it correlates strongly to getting berths)

4) We played an all D1 schedule, arguably the toughest in all of 1-AA (all OOC 1-AA games were played against teams ranked in the top-25 at some point), and 4 of the teams we played in conference were ranked in the top 25 at some point (weber was ranked 28 in week 10, also).

Many 8-3 teams won against D-II teams, to move them to 7-3 (Both YSU and SIU from gateway), and 9-2 Texas State played 2 D-II teams.

Will our SOS, GPI, and/or ranking get us in? I hope so. We'll see tomorrow.