my playoff analysis and projections

[Platinumcat]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

Hope is the daughter of despair.

GF Griz,
I'll direct you to the top sticky. If you have something to actually contribute to the conversation....great. If not, then don't.

For the learning impaired (Brachestcat), let me explain. There is no way State is going to get into the playoffs. That's just the unvarnished truth. Talk about "rationalizing some hope" merely demonstrates that State fans are in the middle of the five stages of death described by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross: Denial, Resentment, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Give up those false hopes, and the bargaining over a now-ordained fate, and move to acceptance. Enjoy the game Saturday, then cheer on the Griz and the Saints. You simply aren't going to find any better contribution to this conversation.

You just said the same thing with more words. So I ask you to give me your reasons (and back them up with more then your opinion) as to why not and who will make it in before them.

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you GFGRIZ, but don't expect me to just sit back and say oh, ok, you're right.

[Hell's Bells]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

Hope is the daughter of despair.

GF Griz,
I'll direct you to the top sticky. If you have something to actually contribute to the conversation....great. If not, then don't.

For the learning impaired (Brachestcat), let me explain. There is no way State is going to get into the playoffs. That's just the unvarnished truth. Talk about "rationalizing some hope" merely demonstrates that State fans are in the middle of the five stages of death described by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross: Denial, Resentment, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Give up those false hopes, and the bargaining over a now-ordained fate, and move to acceptance. Enjoy the game Saturday, then cheer on the Griz and the Saints. You simply aren't going to find any better contribution to this conversation.

You just said the same thing with more words. So I ask you to give me your reasons (and back them up with more then your opinion) as to why not and who will make it in before them.

I'm not trying to pick a fight with you GFGRIZ, but don't expect me to just sit back and say oh, ok, you're right.

hey im sorry i just dont see the comittee picking fewer then 3 from our conference this year

[jagur1]

So Portland State is in then?

[Grizlaw]

hey im sorry i just dont see the comittee picking fewer then 3 from our conference this year

Why not though? I mean, it's fine to say "hey, we're a tough conference and we deserve to get three teams in," but don't you still kind of have to make the case that the third team is more deserving than teams from other conferences?

The fact is, there are a lot of teams on the bubble this year, and some good teams are going to get left out no matter what the committee does. I don't claim to know what will go on behind closed doors, but I'm fairly confident that the discussion will not start off with the words "well, first and foremost, we have to select three Big Sky teams, because the Big Sky was such a tough conference this year." To just say that the Cats will get in because three BSC teams will get in kind of avoids the entire issue, doesn't it?

[iaafan]

Illinois St. played two I-AA cream puffs (Drake and Murray St.) and beat OVC champs E. Illinois. They lost by 11 to a good Iowa St. team.
The Cmte could have to take four teams from the Gateway to get Ill. State in there.
But I think MSU has to really put a beating on UM this weekend to get in. I don't think a narrow win will do it. I'd say win by at least 17 and have some convincing off./def. numbers to back it up. If MSU wins something like 42-0 and doesn't get in.... The 21 point loss to EWU hurt. Had that loss been by 10 or less, it would've helped, too. A win by NDSU over S. Illinois would too.

[BR GRIZ]

I read somewhere that the last team with a 7-4 record to get an at large playoff bid was Idaho in either 1994 or 1995.

[Grizlaw]

I read somewhere that the last team with a 7-4 record to get an at large playoff bid was Idaho in either 1994 or 1995.

Yeah, that was 1995; Idaho got in and was only 6-4 (they only played ten regular season games for some reason). As I recall, though, they had a pretty impressive season that year despite their record, beating several ranked teams (including our eventual national championship team).

Of course, that was in the old BSC, when you basically had to be a solid playoff contender just to finish in the top half of the conference...

http://www.uiathletics.com/pages/sport. ... ID=41#1995

[catsblow]

This is what I can figure from evaluating records, games remaining, possible outcomes:

Teams that are likely in either by record or autobid already won:


Northern Iowa (Gateway Conference) won autobid
New Hampshire (A-10) 9-1 (vs Maine 5-5)
Montana (BSC) 8-2 (at Montana State 6-4)
Appalachian State (Southern Conference) 7-3 (at Elon 3-7)
Furman (Southern) 8-2 (at Chattanooga 6-4)
GA Southern (Southern) 8-3
E Illinois (Ohio Valley), 8-2 (at Jacksonville State 6-4)
Hampton (MEAC), 10-0 won autobid
Lehigh (Patriot League) 8-2 (vs Lafayette 7-3)
Texas State (Southland) 8-2 (vs Sam Houston State 3-6)
Eastern Washington (BSC) 6-5 autobid winner


Teams that are on the bubble: Some game predictions included:

Team current record opponent result GPI as of 11/7
McNeese 5-3 Nichols State lose out at 5-4
W Kent 6-4 Florida Intl. win #16
S IL 7-3 NSU lose #7
MASS 7-3 Hofstra win #4
Richmond 7-3 Will & Mary lose #17
MSU 6-4 U of M win #9
Nichols ST 5-3 McNeese win #19
Cal Poly 7-3 ID State win #6
Coast Car. 9-1 Char. South. win #20
Youngstwon 8-3 idle #22
IL St 7-4 idle #14


Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

A problem with your projections:

Nicholls State controls its own destiny, they are in with a win at home vs. McNeese. You predicted a win by Nicholls but left them out of the playoffs.

So, that takes one more playoff spot away from a potentially more deserving team.

[bozbobcat]

If I remember correctly, which I might not, the Griz got a playoff berth in 1997 with a 7-4 record. But enough about the Griz. The Cats seem to have a shot if they beat the Griz. So let's make it happen.

[info197176]

UM's regular season record in 1997 was 8-3..

[tetoncat]

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2005 12:55 pm Post subject: Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post
tetoncat

Level 3 Blue Bobcat
Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Posts: 114
Location: Montana







7-4, I hope it will be better, but history shows us a slow starter. I think 2-2 in non conference losing to OSU and Cal-Poly with two losses in conference EWU & PSU but beating the griz to clinch a playoff spot. I hope we can end up 8-3 and host but feel 7-4 is more likely.

Not to brag but so far I have hit this right on the head. Therefore, I cannot be too disappointed. We have a great chance to beat the Griz this weekend. The selection committee then has a tough choice. Eastern will win the auto bid and they would have to select a Griz team that would be third in the tie breakers with losses to both EWU and MSU while leaving MSU out. I think they find a way to get us in. Do they say, we have to have three from the Big Sky. Maybe they do and then decide which of the other weaker conferences to drop from 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 in selections.

[whitetrashgriz]

Posted: Mon Aug 29, 2005 12:55 pm Post subject: Reply with quote Edit/Delete this post
tetoncat

Level 3 Blue Bobcat
Joined: 06 Jul 2005
Posts: 114
Location: Montana







7-4, I hope it will be better, but history shows us a slow starter. I think 2-2 in non conference losing to OSU and Cal-Poly with two losses in conference EWU & PSU but beating the griz to clinch a playoff spot. I hope we can end up 8-3 and host but feel 7-4 is more likely.

Not to brag but so far I have hit this right on the head. Therefore, I cannot be too disappointed. We have a great chance to beat the Griz this weekend. The selection committee then has a tough choice. Eastern will win the auto bid and they would have to select a Griz team that would be third in the tie breakers with losses to both EWU and MSU while leaving MSU out. I think they find a way to get us in. Do they say, we have to have three from the Big Sky. Maybe they do and then decide which of the other weaker conferences to drop from 3 to 2 or 2 to 1 in selections.

while i love the optimism of all my fellow cat fans, i mysely will not be holding my breath. sure, we could list a million scenarios, with each one of them holding a one percent chance of the cats getting in. and i'd love to see it. but the fact is, they didn't get it done last weekend. win 2, and we're in. and i'd even say that i'd like this playoff talk even more if we beat ewu but lost to the griz. i think are chances would be better. but as for this cat fan, i want us to kill the griz on saturday, and then when we miss the playoffs, i'll be enjoying bome big sky hoops, and pulling for the big sky in the football playoffs.

[Platinumcat]

This is what I can figure from evaluating records, games remaining, possible outcomes:

Teams that are likely in either by record or autobid already won:


Northern Iowa (Gateway Conference) won autobid
New Hampshire (A-10) 9-1 (vs Maine 5-5)
Montana (BSC) 8-2 (at Montana State 6-4)
Appalachian State (Southern Conference) 7-3 (at Elon 3-7)
Furman (Southern) 8-2 (at Chattanooga 6-4)
GA Southern (Southern) 8-3
E Illinois (Ohio Valley), 8-2 (at Jacksonville State 6-4)
Hampton (MEAC), 10-0 won autobid
Lehigh (Patriot League) 8-2 (vs Lafayette 7-3)
Texas State (Southland) 8-2 (vs Sam Houston State 3-6)
Eastern Washington (BSC) 6-5 autobid winner


Teams that are on the bubble: Some game predictions included:

Team current record opponent result GPI as of 11/7
McNeese 5-3 Nichols State lose out at 5-4
W Kent 6-4 Florida Intl. win #16
S IL 7-3 NSU lose #7
MASS 7-3 Hofstra win #4
Richmond 7-3 Will & Mary lose #17
MSU 6-4 U of M win #9
Nichols ST 5-3 McNeese win #19
Cal Poly 7-3 ID State win #6
Coast Car. 9-1 Char. South. win #20
Youngstwon 8-3 idle #22
IL St 7-4 idle #14


Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

A problem with your projections:

Nicholls State controls its own destiny, they are in with a win at home vs. McNeese. You predicted a win by Nicholls but left them out of the playoffs.

So, that takes one more playoff spot away from a potentially more deserving team.

CB,
I have Texas State as the one who controls their own destiny, not Nichols. Nichols is 5-3 currently and a win puts them at 6-3. I took the approach that the committee wouldn't let them in regardless of the what ifs due to not having 7 D-I victories.

[catsblow]

CB,
I have Texas State as the one who controls their own destiny, not Nichols. Nichols is 5-3 currently and a win puts them at 6-3. I took the approach that the committee wouldn't let them in regardless of the what ifs due to not having 7 D-I victories.

In this case the committee is irrelevant. Nicholls and TX State are both 4-1 in the southland with Nicholls having defeated TSU. Nicholls wins and it is in.

From the Southland conference site:

PLANO, Texas - Nicholls State traveled to Hammond, La, and took a 38-28 win from Southeastern Louisiana. Meanwhile, Texas State was a 38-21 victor at Stephen F. Austin to stay tied for first place with the Colonels at 4-1 in league play. A win for Nicholls next week at home against McNeese State will give the Colonels at least a share of the Southland Conference title. By virtue of Nicholls' overtime win over Texas State earlier in the year, the Colonels would receive the SLC's automatic bid into the NCAA I-AA Playoffs. For Texas State to gain the automatic berth, the Bobcats will have to defeat Sam Houston State at home next Saturday and have Nicholls lose to McNeese.

http://southland.collegesports.com/spor ... 05aab.html

[Platinumcat]

CB,
I have Texas State as the one who controls their own destiny, not Nichols. Nichols is 5-3 currently and a win puts them at 6-3. I took the approach that the committee wouldn't let them in regardless of the what ifs due to not having 7 D-I victories.

In this case the committee is irrelevant. Nicholls and TX State are both 4-1 in the southland with Nicholls having defeated TSU. Nicholls wins and it is in.

From the Southland conference site:

PLANO, Texas - Nicholls State traveled to Hammond, La, and took a 38-28 win from Southeastern Louisiana. Meanwhile, Texas State was a 38-21 victor at Stephen F. Austin to stay tied for first place with the Colonels at 4-1 in league play. A win for Nicholls next week at home against McNeese State will give the Colonels at least a share of the Southland Conference title. By virtue of Nicholls' overtime win over Texas State earlier in the year, the Colonels would receive the SLC's automatic bid into the NCAA I-AA Playoffs. For Texas State to gain the automatic berth, the Bobcats will have to defeat Sam Houston State at home next Saturday and have Nicholls lose to McNeese.

http://southland.collegesports.com/spor ... 05aab.html

Thanks for the catch CB. I guess I'd better root for McNeese this weekend for my predictions to have a chance.

[Platinumcat]

I just checked something out on anygivensaturday.com. It seems that if Nicholls State wins, they get the auto bid regardless of what Texas State does. If Nicholls loses and Texas State wins, Texas State gets the autobid and Nicholls is out. If both lose, Nichols gets the autobid and Texas State is out due to only six D-I victories (they played two DII teams).

If both win, Texas State has a strong chance of making the field.

[KillintheGriz]

It's pretty simple. Play like we have nothing to lose. Dust off the plays we haven't ran this year. (Bailey's using his kids Etch-a-Sketch which got erased before NAU. The other 90 or so plays he can't fit on it). I say we run the hell out of the ball this weekend. Hey, I think Groves played some Q-back didn't he? Trick play there. Let's try a reverse on a kick-off since nothing else but a kick out of bounds seems to get us past the 25 yard line. I think if we royally kick some butt this weekend--by 30 points, we are in. DO NOT PUT IN THE 2ND STRING! The Griz are over-rated. We will prove that to the selection committee this weekend.

[jagur1]

KTG. "The Griz are over-rated. We will prove that to the selection committee this weekend."

Didn't the cats prove that last week in Chenney?
Tell mom not to save a place for me on Turkey day I'll be in Msla.

[KillintheGriz]

KTG. "The Griz are over-rated. We will prove that to the selection committee this weekend."

Didn't the cats prove that last week in Chenney?
Tell mom not to save a place for me on Turkey day I'll be in Msla.

Preseason polls had the Griz above Eastern even though Eastern was picked to win the Big Sky. Eastern killed the Griz AT HOME. The Griz dropped only a few places in the top 10. The Cats held the #1 offense in the nation to 330 yards. Not bad. Score sucked due to play calling after 1st quarter--no Groves. Griz beat Cal Poly even though it was a sloppy win. Cal Poly just fell apart and couldn't capitalize on the Griz 5 turnovers. I give the Griz credit. They have a great program. I am envious of it. That said, the Griz are vulnerable this weekend. Hauck is known for stupid gambles. He will have some this weekend. Both teams have a lot at stake this weekend. It should be a great game.

[Hell's Bells]

KTG. "The Griz are over-rated. We will prove that to the selection committee this weekend."

Didn't the cats prove that last week in Chenney?
Tell mom not to save a place for me on Turkey day I'll be in Msla.

Preseason polls had the Griz above Eastern even though Eastern was picked to win the Big Sky. Eastern killed the Griz AT HOME. The Griz dropped only a few places in the top 10. The Cats held the #1 offense in the nation to 330 yards. Not bad. Score sucked due to play calling after 1st quarter--no Groves. Griz beat Cal Poly even though it was a sloppy win. Cal Poly just fell apart and couldn't capitalize on the Griz 5 turnovers. I give the Griz credit. They have a great program. I am envious of it. That said, the Griz are vulnerable this weekend. Hauck is known for stupid gambles. He will have some this weekend. Both teams have a lot at stake this weekend. It should be a great game.

sometimes those stupid gambles work out...be careful what you wish for