my playoff analysis and projections

[Platinumcat]

This is what I can figure from evaluating records, games remaining, possible outcomes:

Teams that are likely in either by record or autobid already won:


Northern Iowa (Gateway Conference) won autobid
New Hampshire (A-10) 9-1 (vs Maine 5-5)
Montana (BSC) 8-2 (at Montana State 6-4)
Appalachian State (Southern Conference) 7-3 (at Elon 3-7)
Furman (Southern) 8-2 (at Chattanooga 6-4)
GA Southern (Southern) 8-3
E Illinois (Ohio Valley), 8-2 (at Jacksonville State 6-4)
Hampton (MEAC), 10-0 won autobid
Lehigh (Patriot League) 8-2 (vs Lafayette 7-3)
Texas State (Southland) 8-2 (vs Sam Houston State 3-6)
Eastern Washington (BSC) 6-5 autobid winner


Teams that are on the bubble: Some game predictions included:

Team current record opponent result GPI as of 11/7
McNeese 5-3 Nichols State lose out at 5-4
W Kent 6-4 Florida Intl. win #16
S IL 7-3 NSU lose #7
MASS 7-3 Hofstra win #4
Richmond 7-3 Will & Mary lose #17
MSU 6-4 U of M win #9
Nichols ST 5-3 McNeese win #19
Cal Poly 7-3 ID State win #6
Coast Car. 9-1 Char. South. win #20
Youngstwon 8-3 idle #22
IL St 7-4 idle #14


Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

[Hell's Bells]

This is what I can figure from evaluating records, games remaining, possible outcomes:

Teams that are likely in either by record or autobid already won:


Northern Iowa (Gateway Conference) won autobid
New Hampshire (A-10) 9-1 (vs Maine 5-5)
Montana (BSC) 8-2 (at Montana State 6-4)
Appalachian State (Southern Conference) 7-3 (at Elon 3-7)
Furman (Southern) 8-2 (at Chattanooga 6-4)
GA Southern (Southern) 8-3
E Illinois (Ohio Valley), 8-2 (at Jacksonville State 6-4)
Hampton (MEAC), 10-0 won autobid
Lehigh (Patriot League) 8-2 (vs Lafayette 7-3)
Texas State (Southland) 8-2 (vs Sam Houston State 3-6)
Eastern Washington (BSC) 6-5 autobid winner


Teams that are on the bubble: Some game predictions included:

Team current record opponent result GPI as of 11/7
McNeese 5-3 Nichols State lose out at 5-4
W Kent 6-4 Florida Intl. win #16
S IL 7-3 NSU lose #7
MASS 7-3 Hofstra win #4
Richmond 7-3 Will & Mary lose #17
MSU 6-4 U of M win #9
Nichols ST 5-3 McNeese win #19
Cal Poly 7-3 ID State win #6
Coast Car. 9-1 Char. South. win #20
Youngstwon 8-3 idle #22
IL St 7-4 idle #14


Who goes? I say:
Coastal Carolina, weak schedule, but at 10-1 they are probably in
UMASS 8-3
Cal Poly 8-3
Youngstown 8-3
between South IL, MSU, IL State, Nicholls State for the last slot. I'm going to take MSU. Here's my reasoning. Nicholls State won't have 7 wins (I know it's because of hurricanes but that's my rationale), IL State and South IL play in conferences less rated then the Big Sky. So, it's more justified that the BSC get a 7-4 team ahead of another.

finally sombody other then myself that thinks that the cats have a chance to go into the playoffs

[Cat-theotherwhitemeat]

I heard that no team with 4 losses has EVER gotten in the playoff's. If true, I wouldn't hold my breath.

Anyone know the truth of this?

[Platinumcat]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

[catatac]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

That's true, but they have changed the wording to say that you'll probably need 7 wins over 1-AA opponents. That's why it's likely that a 7-4 team will be in this year. As someone else posted, however - I'm not sure if we deserve to be in after Sat. - especially if we got picked over a Cal-Poly for example which would be ridiculously stupid.

[Hell's Bells]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

That's true, but they have changed the wording to say that you'll probably need 7 wins over 1-AA opponents. That's why it's likely that a 7-4 team will be in this year. As someone else posted, however - I'm not sure if we deserve to be in after Sat. - especially if we got picked over a Cal-Poly for example which would be ridiculously stupid.

i doubt we would be picked over cal poly

but we have 7 wins over 1aa opponents
and as of now 3 losses over 1aa opponents

[GFGriz]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

Hope is the daughter of despair.

[anacondagriz]

Just to make a point you are leaving out the Patriot League. If Lehigh wins, they are in, but Colgate w/a win would be 8-3 w/ a victory over UMASS. IF Lafayette beats Lehigh, then Colgate gets the autobid & both Lafayette & Lehigh are 8-3. Would the Cats get in over both of them. Also Illinois St. 7-4 record is more impressive than Cats 7-4 record, unless you really take the Griz behind the woodshed.

[Platinumcat]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

That's true, but they have changed the wording to say that you'll probably need 7 wins over 1-AA opponents. That's why it's likely that a 7-4 team will be in this year. As someone else posted, however - I'm not sure if we deserve to be in after Sat. - especially if we got picked over a Cal-Poly for example which would be ridiculously stupid.

That's why I picked Cal Poly to get in ahead of us

[Platinumcat]

Just to make a point you are leaving out the Patriot League. If Lehigh wins, they are in, but Colgate w/a win would be 8-3 w/ a victory over UMASS. IF Lafayette beats Lehigh, then Colgate gets the autobid & both Lafayette & Lehigh are 8-3. Would the Cats get in over both of them. Also Illinois St. 7-4 record is more impressive than Cats 7-4 record, unless you really take the Griz behind the woodshed.

Due to their conference ranking, several folks on Anygiven saturday and on sportsnetwork all agree that only one team will make it from this conference. So, I don't feel as I have. But, of course, it's all debateable at this point.

[Platinumcat]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

Hope is the daughter of despair.

GF Griz,
I'll direct you to the top sticky. If you have something to actually contribute to the conversation....great. If not, then don't.

[Hell's Bells]

Just to make a point you are leaving out the Patriot League. If Lehigh wins, they are in, but Colgate w/a win would be 8-3 w/ a victory over UMASS. IF Lafayette beats Lehigh, then Colgate gets the autobid & both Lafayette & Lehigh are 8-3. Would the Cats get in over both of them. Also Illinois St. 7-4 record is more impressive than Cats 7-4 record, unless you really take the Griz behind the woodshed.

Due to their conference ranking, several folks on Anygiven saturday and on sportsnetwork all agree that only one team will make it from this conference. So, I don't feel as I have. But, of course, it's all debateable at this point.

what we have to take into account is the okla state game. that game appearantly does not count towards playoff accounting, yet we had a good showing against them. soo according to the comittee we are 7-3 hopefully and hopefully fields does some handwringing to get us in

[catatac]

Just to make a point you are leaving out the Patriot League. If Lehigh wins, they are in, but Colgate w/a win would be 8-3 w/ a victory over UMASS. IF Lafayette beats Lehigh, then Colgate gets the autobid & both Lafayette & Lehigh are 8-3. Would the Cats get in over both of them. Also Illinois St. 7-4 record is more impressive than Cats 7-4 record, unless you really take the Griz behind the woodshed.

Due to their conference ranking, several folks on Anygiven saturday and on sportsnetwork all agree that only one team will make it from this conference. So, I don't feel as I have. But, of course, it's all debateable at this point.

what we have to take into account is the okla state game. that game appearantly does not count towards playoff accounting, yet we had a good showing against them. soo according to the comittee we are 7-3 hopefully and hopefully fields does some handwringing to get us in

Speaking of that - That is awesome that they upset TT over the weekend. I couldn't believe that when I saw it come across the ticker...

[anacondagriz]

what we have to take into account is the okla state game. that game appearantly does not count towards playoff accounting, yet we had a good showing against them. soo according to the comittee we are 7-3 hopefully and hopefully fields does some handwringing to get us in

You know that Fields can even be in the room when they discuss the Cats right? Having him on the committee is a plus but I doubt it makes that much of a difference. I agree the Patriot is nowhere near the Big Sky but w/them being East Coast teams I would'nt count out a 2nd place team from that league. Lehigh got in over Cal Poly last year.

[thuss]

I believe there are 14 teams in over us already (2 spots up for grab). With some help from other teams and a big win against the griz, we have small shot. It all comes down to the voters.

[orsalak]

I believe there are 14 teams in over us already (2 spots up for grab). With some help from other teams and a big win against the griz, we have small shot. It all comes down to the voters.

I did not see this with my own eyes but I heard from a Griz fan friend of mine that today on ESPN they had a college football show that said there should be at least 3 teams from the Big Sky in the playoffs. This sounds crazy to me but their rational was that the Big Sky was the best conference this year and they shouldn't make the playoffs weak by putting in other teams from lesser conferences. Like I said I didn't see this show with my own eyes but I don't know why he would make this up and I don't know what it is worth comming from ESPN.

[WYCAT]

Like I said I didn't see this show with my own eyes but I don't know why he would make this up and I don't know what it is worth comming from ESPN.

Not much if you ask Gato!

[VictorG]

Like I said I didn't see this show with my own eyes but I don't know why he would make this up and I don't know what it is worth comming from ESPN.

Not much if you ask Gato!

Me either............

[GFGriz]

There are a few anomalies here and there where teams got in with four losses and weren't the auto bid teams.

I know it's a long shot and will take help from several teams. But, as long as I can rationalize some hope........

Hope is the daughter of despair.

GF Griz,
I'll direct you to the top sticky. If you have something to actually contribute to the conversation....great. If not, then don't.

For the learning impaired (Brachestcat), let me explain. There is no way State is going to get into the playoffs. That's just the unvarnished truth. Talk about "rationalizing some hope" merely demonstrates that State fans are in the middle of the five stages of death described by Elisabeth Kubler-Ross: Denial, Resentment, Bargaining, Depression, Acceptance. Give up those false hopes, and the bargaining over a now-ordained fate, and move to acceptance. Enjoy the game Saturday, then cheer on the Griz and the Saints. You simply aren't going to find any better contribution to this conversation.

[catatac]

Thanks for the advice, but I'll take a pass on cheering for the Griz. Eastern WA is a much better representation for the Big Sky this year and I'll root for them to go all the way...