Getting ahead of yourself?

Born2BaGriz · Post by **Born2BaGriz** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:36 pm

Lots of talk here about what ifs. You guys better worry about one thing, and that is getting past EWU. Take care of that, then you can think about what else will come.

I just don't see you guys getting past EWU. Will your defense was better last week, it won't hold up against EWU. The Griz found it difficult to get to Meyer, you guys will find it impossible. Plus, EWU has to win this game to keep it's hopes alive too, and I'll give EWU the edge at home.

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:43 pm

Trust me, noone is getting ahead of themselves and looking past this weeks game, the 'Cats have more than a little motivation to win this one. A lot is on the line for both teams, but we haven't forgotten last year.

thuss · Post by **thuss** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:48 pm

See but unlike the griz we have a pass defense. We give up 163 yds/game and the griz give 234yds/game. That is a huge difference. They will have better luck trying to run the ball.

BleedsBlue&Gold · Post by **BleedsBlue&Gold** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:50 pm

EWU is giving up the most sacks in the Confernce (39).

grizsuck24 · Post by **grizsuck24** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 12:52 pm

Lots of talk here about what ifs. You guys better worry about one thing, and that is getting past EWU. Take care of that, then you can think about what else will come.

Who cares if fans are getting ahead of themselves and talking about the different possiblities and scenerios that might happen throughout the end of the season. As long as the team is focused on Eastern, which I guarrentee they are, it doesn't matter what some fans on this message board are talking about. Its not like if the fans are talking about playoff possiblities, it means that the fan base is overlooking Eastern and are not going to be ready to cheer on saturday.

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:13 pm

thuss wrote:See but unlike the griz we have a pass defense. We give up 163 yds/game and the griz give 234yds/game. That is a huge difference. They will have better luck trying to run the ball.

Against the 5 common opponents UM has given up 248 passing yds per game, compared to 202 for MSU - not as big as big a difference as it first looked. Overall against those same teams UM has given up 372 total yards, compared to 392 for MSU.

If you project those stats out for Saturday expect EWU to pass for 350 yards and run for 210 more, for a total of 560 yards of offense.

On the other hand against the same teams MSU has passed for 282 ypg, compared to 148 for UM, but has only rushed for 118 ypg, compared to 208 for UM. Again projecting these out MSU should pass for 380 yards, and run for about 25, for 405 yards of total offense.

Should be a good game, will probably come down to turn overs and who can make the most of their trips to the red zone.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:14 pm

GOKATS wrote:Trust me, noone is getting ahead of themselves and looking past this weeks game, the 'Cats have more than a little motivation to win this one. A lot is on the line for both teams, but we haven't forgotten last year.

... or the year before!

DriftCat · Post by **DriftCat** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:21 pm

I agree.....the fans can get ahead of themselves and talk about possibilities all they want as long as the players are not doing the same. The biggest difference between the team the griz faced and the team we will face is they have alot more injuries including both of their starting safeties. It was said that it will be a shootout but imagine what Lulay will be able to do with backups in at DB.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:24 pm

Yeah, and griz fans haven't gotten ahead of themselves by talking about making plans for Chattanooga already.

Give me a break - this is what fans do. I guarantee that neither the Cats or the griz have gotten ahead of themselves and are fully focused on beating Eastern and PAM State this weekend.

catamaran · Post by **catamaran** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 1:46 pm

Against the 5 common opponents UM has given up 248 passing yds per game, compared to 202 for MSU - not as big as big a difference as it first looked[/quote]
I'm not sure if you did the math, but that's half the length of the field once per game...a pretty large difference

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:04 pm

Is anyone out there surprised to find out that the "awesome" Griz defense is giving up only 5.1% fewer yards per game than the Bobcat D (versus common opponents)?

Keep in mind that of our 5 common opponents, the Griz played the 3 toughest in WaGriz (Cal Poly, Weber, and PSU) while the Cats had all 3 of those teams on the road. I don't know about the rest of you, but I would hope home-field advantage was worth more than a 5% increase in your offensive output, meaning that, IMO, the Cats & Griz defenses have performed almost identically vs their common opponents in terms of yards/game.

jagur1 · Post by **jagur1** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:19 pm

MSU Toddler · Post by **MSU Toddler** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:22 pm

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footba ... _GAME.html

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:37 pm

catamaran wrote:
grizbeer wrote:Against the 5 common opponents UM has given up 248 passing yds per game, compared to 202 for MSU - not as big as big a difference as it first looked
I'm not sure if you did the math, but that's half the length of the field once per game...a pretty large difference

Yes but 46 yds per game is still less than 71 yds per game - about 1/4 of the football field.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:38 pm

jag,

Please tell me where my statistical analysis is off-base?

coachouert · Post by **coachouert** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:40 pm

MSU Toddler wrote:http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/footba ... _GAME.html

Thanks for the site! You can look up all kinds of cool stats on there. We lead the league in penalties...weird.

I don't think anyone is looking past this game towards the Cat/Griz game, unless they are a Griz fan. Hate to be the one to remind Griz fans, but they also have a game left this weekend and while Sac State does not pose a great threat, you never know. Upsets happen every weekend, just go ask all the teams that have at some point been ranked number one or at least in the top fifteen in Division I-AA. A lot of them aren't there anymore due to upsets and some of those upsets have come against crappy teams that have nothing to really play for except being the spoiler like Sac St. Either way, I'll be in Cheney this weekend, cheering for the Cats just like I have all the other games.

grizband · Post by **grizband** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 2:59 pm

El_Gato wrote:Is anyone out there surprised to find out that the "awesome" Griz defense is giving up only 5.1% fewer yards per game than the Bobcat D (versus common opponents)?

Keep in mind that of our 5 common opponents, the Griz played the 3 toughest in WaGriz (Cal Poly, Weber, and PSU) while the Cats had all 3 of those teams on the road. I don't know about the rest of you, but I would hope home-field advantage was worth more than a 5% increase in your offensive output, meaning that, IMO, the Cats & Griz defenses have performed almost identically vs their common opponents in terms of yards/game.

When taking into account the 5 similar opponents (PSU, WSU, ISU, Cal Poly, and NAU), the yards given up per game comparison is pretty similar (371 for the Griz, 392for the Cats). The Cats have given up an average of 31.2 points per game, while the Griz have given up 14.4 points per game. THe surprising this is the Griz gave up their lowest point totals on the road.

DriftCat · Post by **DriftCat** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:12 pm

We have also turned the ball over 8 more times that the Griz have which is probably one of the reasons for the ppg difference.

grizband · Post by **grizband** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:16 pm

MM7CAT wrote:We have also turned the ball over 8 more times that the Griz have which is probably one of the reasons for the ppg difference.

Yeah, that is probably a big part of it. We also are second in the league with 23 takeaways, and a +10 turnover margin.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Tue Nov 08, 2005 3:20 pm

El Gato, how about we compare the common opponents that the Cats played at home and the Griz on the road, ISU and NAU. At home the cats allowed ISU 193yds rushing and 141 passing for 334. The Griz on the road allowed ISU 76 rushing and 263 passing for 339. As for NAU, the Cats allowed 56 rushing and 303 passing for 359. The Griz allowed NAU 58 rushing and 193 passing for 251. This averages out to the Cats allowing 124.5 yds rushing and 222 yds passing for a total of 346.5 yds per game. The Griz on the road allowed 67 yds rushing and 228 yds passing for a total of 295 yds per game. For your stats, I have stats too. Maybe all this means is that good teams will get yards vs both defenses because good offense are difficult to stop completely, but poor offenses still gain yards vs the Cats. I don't know, but look at what I can read into stats too. It also might mean that visiting teams are forced to pass becuase they fall far behind the Griz, hence the numbers being closer when you average in all 5 common opponents. Boy, I am good at making the numbers mean what I want them too.