Cats and the Big Sky Tourney

[CATS2000]

Are we going to even make the Conf Tourney the way we have been playing? The top 6 go. If the 'Cats lose tonight, they will be 3-7 in their last 10 conf games this season. It looks good that we will at least get the 5th or 6th seed with another home conf win next week but this could be a one and done type year. Very disappointing last half of the season. Here are the updated standings as of today:

Big Sky Conf All

Weber St. 10-2 16-8
Northern Colorado 9-3 20-5
Montana 9-4 18-7
Montana St. 7-6 12-12
Portland St. 5-6 10-14
Northern Arizona 5-7 11-12
Eastern Wash. 3-8 7-18
Sacramento St. 3-9 9-16
Idaho St. 3-9 6-18

[MSU01]

MSU clinched a spot in the tourney with a win tonight. If we can beat Sac State next week in Bozeman, 4th place will be clinched since NAU can finish no better than 8-8 and MSU holds the tiebreaker over PSU with the sweep. I'm guessing it'll probably be #4 MSU vs. #5 NAU in the first round, with PSU slipping to 6th or out completely.

[TomCat88]

MSU clinched a spot in the tourney with a win tonight. If we can beat Sac State next week in Bozeman, 4th place will be clinched since NAU can finish no better than 8-8 and MSU holds the tiebreaker over PSU with the sweep. I'm guessing it'll probably be #4 MSU vs. #5 NAU in the first round, with PSU slipping to 6th or out completely.

Not yet according to the BSC. Lose out and have PSU, NAU and EWU win out, and MSU is the odd man out in a three-way tie-breaker with NAU and EWU. A EWU loss to UM today would clinch a spot.

[MSU01]

Not yet according to the BSC. Lose out and have PSU, NAU and EWU win out, and MSU is the odd man out in a three-way tie-breaker with NAU and EWU. A EWU loss to UM today would clinch a spot.

I'm pretty sure MSU has actually clinched - PSU, NAU, and EWU can't all win out because PSU and EWU both play NAU next weekend. MSU can finish no worse than 8-8, and with EWU and NAU both having 8 losses one of them will have 9 after that game and can't possibly finish ahead of MSU. ISU and Sac already have 9 losses, so MSU is guaranteed to finish ahead of at least 3 teams no matter what.

[BLGCAT]

If the griz were to loose out and we are able to both of our last games we could take the 3 spot. unlikely but sad that we have played so poorly as of late and could still take a top 4 spot. I really hope we catch a groove going into the tourney like last year. If Anderson could come of the bench and score 8 a game with 4-5 boards with the continued good play of Howard rush and Johnson I like our chances. I think a major key to success for this team of late will be the obvious in sharing the ball and taking less contested shots.

[GOKATS]

Not yet according to the BSC. Lose out and have PSU, NAU and EWU win out, and MSU is the odd man out in a three-way tie-breaker with NAU and EWU. A EWU loss to UM today would clinch a spot.

I'm pretty sure MSU has actually clinched - PSU, NAU, and EWU can't all win out because PSU and EWU both play NAU next weekend. MSU can finish no worse than 8-8, and with EWU and NAU both having 8 losses one of them will have 9 after that game and can't possibly finish ahead of MSU. ISU and Sac already have 9 losses, so MSU is guaranteed to finish ahead of at least 3 teams no matter what.

I received this in an e-mail from MSU last night:

MSU has not clinched a spot yet. MSU and EWU could tie for sixth at 8-8. EWU would win the tiebreaker.

MSU will clinch a spot with a win or an EWU loss.

[MSU01]

Not yet according to the BSC. Lose out and have PSU, NAU and EWU win out, and MSU is the odd man out in a three-way tie-breaker with NAU and EWU. A EWU loss to UM today would clinch a spot.

I'm pretty sure MSU has actually clinched - PSU, NAU, and EWU can't all win out because PSU and EWU both play NAU next weekend. MSU can finish no worse than 8-8, and with EWU and NAU both having 8 losses one of them will have 9 after that game and can't possibly finish ahead of MSU. ISU and Sac already have 9 losses, so MSU is guaranteed to finish ahead of at least 3 teams no matter what.

I received this in an e-mail from MSU last night:

MSU has not clinched a spot yet. MSU and EWU could tie for sixth at 8-8. EWU would win the tiebreaker.

MSU will clinch a spot with a win or an EWU loss.

True - but even in this scenario ISU, Sac, and NAU would all have 9 or more losses. We only have to finish ahead of three teams to get in and can finish no worse than 8-8. We could go down to the #6 seed in that scenario, but we're definitely in the tournament somewhere. Whoever sent that e-mail may be forgetting that EWU plays NAU this week and that game will give one of those teams their 9th loss.

[GOKATS]

Not yet according to the BSC. Lose out and have PSU, NAU and EWU win out, and MSU is the odd man out in a three-way tie-breaker with NAU and EWU. A EWU loss to UM today would clinch a spot.

I'm pretty sure MSU has actually clinched - PSU, NAU, and EWU can't all win out because PSU and EWU both play NAU next weekend. MSU can finish no worse than 8-8, and with EWU and NAU both having 8 losses one of them will have 9 after that game and can't possibly finish ahead of MSU. ISU and Sac already have 9 losses, so MSU is guaranteed to finish ahead of at least 3 teams no matter what.

I received this in an e-mail from MSU last night:

MSU has not clinched a spot yet. MSU and EWU could tie for sixth at 8-8. EWU would win the tiebreaker.

MSU will clinch a spot with a win or an EWU loss.

True - but even in this scenario ISU, Sac, and NAU would all have 9 or more losses. We only have to finish ahead of three teams to get in and can finish no worse than 8-8. We could go down to the #6 seed in that scenario, but we're definitely in the tournament somewhere. Whoever sent that e-mail may be forgetting that EWU plays NAU this week and that game will give one of those teams their 9th loss.

Actually I need to make a correction/clarification, the e-mail did come from MSU, but it was forwarding a message from Jon Kasper with the Big Sky Conference Office. Right or wrong (I haven't had to time to play with the numbers) the statement did not come from MSU Athletics.

[MSU01]

MSU now controls its own destiny for the #3 seed with UM's loss today. Very, very outside shot at still getting the #2 seed if MSU wins out and UNC loses two out of their last three (vs. PSU, vs. EWU, @Sac).

[weberwildcat]

big sky tourney:

1. wsu 11-2 (in)
2. unc 9-4 (in)
3. um 9-5 (in)
4. msu 8-6 (msu is in over sac and isu because of the 9 losses, it isn't possible for msu to have 9 losses)
5. psu 5-7 (msu swept psu, but psu could still finish 9-7 so msu needs one more psu loss)
6. nau 5-8 (msu split with nau)
7. ewu 4-8 (msu was swept by ewu, but one more loss and cant finish ahead of msu)
8. isu 4-9 (cant finish ahead of msu)
9. sac 3-9 (cant finish ahead of msu)

i am not sure if MSU is automatic yet unless it has something to do with PSU or NAU tie-breakers, if not...

Of course all of this is with the assumption that if MSU loses out will they still be in...one MSU win and none of this matters.

One MSU win and SAc, ISU, PSU cant finish ahead of MSU. Also, NAU and PSU play each other on Thurs. After that game is over MSU would clinch even if MSU somehow loses to Sac.

Anyone else have any more info than this? Toward the end it can get messy. I guess we just need to know has MSU clinched or do we wait for Thurs?

[MSU01]

big sky tourney:

1. wsu 11-2 (in)
2. unc 9-4 (in)
3. um 9-5 (in)
4. msu 8-6 (msu is in over sac and isu because of the 9 losses, it isn't possible for msu to have 9 losses)
5. psu 5-7 (msu swept psu, but psu could still finish 9-7 so msu needs one more psu loss)
6. nau 5-8 (msu split with nau)
7. ewu 4-8 (msu was swept by ewu, but one more loss and cant finish ahead of msu)
8. isu 4-9 (cant finish ahead of msu)
9. sac 3-9 (cant finish ahead of msu)

i am not sure if MSU is automatic yet unless it has something to do with PSU or NAU tie-breakers, if not...

Of course all of this is with the assumption that if MSU loses out will they still be in...one MSU win and none of this matters.

One MSU win and SAc, ISU, PSU cant finish ahead of MSU. Also, NAU and PSU play each other on Thurs. After that game is over MSU would clinch even if MSU somehow loses to Sac.

Anyone else have any more info than this? Toward the end it can get messy.

MSU is definitely in, as either EWU or NAU will get their 9th loss when they play each other this week. That'll leave 3 teams with at least 9 losses and MSU can finish no worse than 8-8 at this point.

As for seeds, this is what I think the scenarios are:

MSU gets 2 seed by winning out + UNC losing two of three remaining games + UM win over Sac, resulting in 3-way tie between MSU/UM/UNC. MSU would win tiebreaker with 3-1 head-to-head record against UM & UNC.
MSU gets 3 seed by winning out or the unlikely scenario of Sac sweeping MSU & UM and MSU beating UM.
MSU gets 4 seed by winning one of two remaining games, or by losing both remaining games unless PSU wins out to finish 9-7 or EWU wins out to finish tied at 8-8. MSU loses tiebreaker to EWU, but holds tiebreaker over PSU (head to head sweep) and NAU (split, but MSU has wins over #2 UNC and #3 UM while NAU does not).
MSU gets 5 seed if they lose both remaining games and EWU or PSU wins out
MSU gets 6 seed if they lose both remaining games and EWU and PSU both win out

[weberwildcat]

maybe thats all the big sky meant by MSU clinching already, based on the fact that that psu/nau play on thurs and ewu/nau playing on sat its not possible for all of these teams to get in ahead of the bobs.

Thursday
Eastern Washington at Northern Colorado
Portland State at Northern Arizona
Sacramento State at Montana State

Saturday
Idaho State at Weber State
Portland State at Northern Colorado
Sacramento State at Montana
Eastern Washington at Northern Arizona
San Jose State at Montana State