Dougherty picks against Cats

[tampa_griz]

He's incorrectly called nearly every Cat game this season. Let's hope he's wrong again.

http://www.sportsnetwork.com/default.as ... 112906.htm

No. 18 Montana State (8-4) at No. 1 Appalachian State (11-1), 4:00

With a 31-13 victory at home against Furman in the first round, the Bobcats earned their first playoff win since their national championship season of 1984. They used a pair of key special teams plays to score twice within 30 seconds to take a 24-0 lead in the second quarter, and opened up a 31-0 edge before Furman came back to score twice late. The Bobcats have won seven of their past eight games after a 1-3 start, with the lone loss coming in a 13-7 defeat at Montana in the regular season finale. Montana State is in the quarterfinals for the first time since 1984, and will try to break a two-game playoff road losing streak. The first-round victory also marked Montana State’s first-ever game against a Southern Conference team, and the Bobcats will try to stay perfect by beating league champion Appalachian State this weekend. The defending national champion Mountaineers are rolling coming into this game. They have won 11 games in a row after losing the season opener to I-A North Carolina State, and have a 19-game overall winning streak against I-AA/FCS teams that dates back to a 34-31 loss to Furman on October 8, 2005. The Mountaineers also boast a 25-game home winning streak that has spanned four seasons. All of those streaks were extended with a 45-28 victory over Coastal Carolina in the first round of the NCAA Division I Football Championship. The Mountaineers opened up a comfortable 31-0 lead by halftime in that game, and used a balanced offensive effort for 560 yards, including 334 on the ground. Appalachian State has advanced to the quarterfinals in consecutive seasons for the first time since 2000-01. While Montana State has a 1-0 record against the Southern Conference, the Mountaineers have dropped a pair of three-point contests against Big Sky Conference teams, both in the playoffs. They fell at former Big Sky member Boise State, 17-14, in the quarterfinals in 1994, and lost a heartbreaking 19-16 game in overtime at Montana in the 2000 semifinals.

When Montana State Has the Ball: Ideally, the Bobcats could control the clock and sustain long drives with the running game. Appalachian State’s offense can score in bunches, and keeping them off the field is always a good way to limit their effectiveness. Unfortunately for the Bobcats, the matchup on the ground does not look good on paper. Montana State runs for just 97.2 yards per contest, and tallies only 3.26 yards per carry. To make matters worse, the Bobcats are without running back Evin Groves and Aaron Mason (573 yards, 7 TD) is questionable, so the carries could all fall on Isaiah Taito. Taito had 69 yards on 17 carries in the first round win over Furman, but carried only 82 times for 328 yards without a touchdown this year. If Mason can’t go, Taito will be the feature back against an Appalachian State defense that gives up 2.87 yards per carry and has only surrendered five touchdowns on the ground all season. The Mountaineers were dominant against Coastal Carolina’s running game, but did give up 351 yards and three touchdown passes through the air in the 45-28 victory. The Bobcats have thrown for 229.2 yards per game with 17 touchdown passes this season, with quarterback Jack Rolovich (1484 yards, 10 TD/10 INT) coming off a 272-yard, two-touchdown day in the win against Furman. Wide receivers Michael Jefferson (924 yards, 9 TD) and Donnell Wheaton (691 yards, 4 TD) both stepped up in the first round and have more than 50 receptions on the season. They will need big days against the Mountaineers. Appalachian State is tough on the pass with 163.2 yards per game allowed and only 51 percent of passes completed, but they have allowed 12 touchdown passes and could be susceptible to big plays if safety Corey Lynch cannot play or is not up to full speed. Rolovich has thrown five interceptions in the past three games, and will have to do a better job of taking care of the ball for the Bobcats to win in Boone.

When Appalachian State Has the Ball: The Mountaineer offensive line is considered one of the best, if not the best, in I-AA/FCS. But the Bobcats should be able to match up physically. Montana State limits opponents to 2.96 yards per carry and 106.4 yards per game on the ground, and effectively eliminated Furman’s running game for the first three quarters in the first- round victory. The Bobcats do have to show they can handle the speed of an Appalachian State team that likes to spread out and run out of the shotgun with either quarterback Armanti Edwards or running back Kevin Richardson. Edwards (857 rushing yards, 11 TD) has four 100-yard efforts on the ground and notched a career-high with 172 rushing yards and two touchdowns against Coastal Carolina, while Richardson (1221 yards, 20 TD) had 156 yards and a touchdown last week and has six 100-yard days and at least one rushing touchdown in 11 of 12 games this season. The Mountaineers average 5.33 yards per carry and 224.8 yards per game on the ground, and are coming off of a 334-yard effort in the first round. Montana State should keep them from posting that type of total, but the banged-up Bobcat defense could have its hands full with second-leading tackler Epikopo King likely out for the game and Will Claggett still questionable. Still, the Bobcats need to gear on the running game and force Edwards (1862 yards, 14 TD/8 INT) to pass. He threw for 226 yards and three touchdowns in the first round game, and looks less and less like a true freshman every week. The Bobcats give up a lot of yards through the air too, but they would rather take their chances forcing the Mountaineers and Edwards to pass. Montana State does have 13 interceptions and 22 turnovers forced, and big plays on defense will be integral to set up short fields and stop Mountaineer drives. Appalachian State has turned it over 24 times this season, and committed four miscues in a 27-20 double overtime win over Georgia Southern.

Intangibles: Appalachian State has the obvious edge of playing at home, where it hasn’t lost since the 2002 playoffs and owns a 25-game overall win streak. But going on the road to a loud environment won’t phase Montana State. The Bobcats just went to Montana two weeks ago, and notched a 4-1 road record where the only loss was a close 13-7 game against the Grizzlies. The Bobcats were at 1-3 earlier in the season and looked dead in the playoff race, so they are familiar with adverse situations. As one of the last teams in the field, Montana State can play with nothing to lose. No one expects them to win in Boone, and the Mountaineers will have all the pressure on their side.

The Verdict: Montana State is the type of team that won’t get blown out in this game. The Bobcats have a tough defense, and Mike Kramer’s teams always at least play well and stay close in big games. A few big plays from Rolovich and the receivers can make things really interesting, and put some pressure on Edwards and the Mountaineer offense. But the Bobcats could have trouble keeping up with the pace the Mountaineers set. Edwards and Richardson are both capable of breaking plays outside, and should keep the Mountaineers moving on offense to pull away in the second half and march on to the semifinals. Prediction: Appalachian State 27, Montana State 13

[Shakermaker]

You were picked to lose against Colorado too...

[MTBobcatFan]

What a hoser

[OldTiredGriz]

The defending national champ; 25 wins in a row at home - Dougherty is going with logic. When it comes to playing the game, logic gives way to determination, hard hits and execution. Kramer and the Cats seem to excel when they are the underdog. I think it will be a close and tough game with MSU winning by 1.

[appgrad1]

When it comes to playing the game, logic gives way to determination, hard hits and execution.

I think it will be a close and tough game with MSU winning by 1.

Old Tired Griz:
Admirable for you to support another BSC team. I understand that. I was pulling for Furman last week.

Many Bobcat posters seem to think (like you) that determination, hard hits & execution are something only the Bobcats are capable of. 'Taint so. Our defense is small, fast, and surprisingly hard-hitting. Our DB, Jeremy Wiggins, a Buchanan Award candidate, and our DE, Marques Merrell, another Buchanan Award candidate, have a number of forced fumbles coming from their hard hits.

Plus, every game, our OL records a number of pancake blocks.

My prediction is a close game for the first half, but ASU by more than two scores. Here's to a good game by both teams!!

WELCOME TO THE ROCK!!!

[OldTiredGriz]

Of course hard-hitting football is not confined to the State of Montana -- I'm pretty sure that Bobcats fans (and more importantly the coaching staff and the team) know that the Mountaineers will deliver their fair share of bone rattling hits. The determination part comes into play when the player is flat on his back wondering what just ran over him; he shows his determination by dusting off his butt and getting back into the fracus on the next play. It will be a game of many hard hits by both teams. I'm looking forward to watching it -- I've already wheeled a second TV into my front room so I can watch the Griz and the Cats at the same time.

[tampa_griz]

Of course hard-hitting football is not confined to the State of Montana -- I'm pretty sure that Bobcats fans (and more importantly the coaching staff and the team) know that the Mountaineers will deliver their fair share of bone rattling hits. The determination part comes into play when the player is flat on his back wondering what just ran over him; he shows his determination by dusting off his butt and getting back into the fracus on the next play. It will be a game of many hard hits by both teams. I'm looking forward to watching it -- I've already wheeled a second TV into my front room so I can watch the Griz and the Cats at the same time.

If App. State doesn't think the Cats can take a few hits they're in for a big surprise. Did they not watch Griz-Cat and see how they got back up over and over again?

Cats by 3.

[bobcat92]

Tampa Griz you are correct about the Cat Griz game. I don't think I have ever seen so many helmets fly off players. I can still see in my mind Bobby Daly trying to jump over the Griz line and getting up ended. MSU has played against one of the best defenses in the nation. And will see another this Saturday.

[BobCatFan]

Of course hard-hitting football is not confined to the State of Montana -- I'm pretty sure that Bobcats fans (and more importantly the coaching staff and the team) know that the Mountaineers will deliver their fair share of bone rattling hits. The determination part comes into play when the player is flat on his back wondering what just ran over him; he shows his determination by dusting off his butt and getting back into the fracus on the next play. It will be a game of many hard hits by both teams. I'm looking forward to watching it -- I've already wheeled a second TV into my front room so I can watch the Griz and the Cats at the same time.

If App. State doesn't think the Cats can take a few hits they're in for a big surprise. Did they not watch Griz-Cat and see how they got back up over and over again?

Cats by 3.

You forgot to say how the Cats can lay a hit on the other team. ASU is taking this game way to be a cake wake. The Cats have never had problems defending the option running game. Why should this game be any different?

This year's Cat/Griz has to go down as one of the most furious, hardest hitting games in college football history. Hamlets were flying on nearly play. How many players had to sit out for a serious or two just to regain their senses? Even the Griz fans at work will admit to that. If the Cats can bring their A game like they have the past two weeks, ASU will be wondering how they could have lost to that 8-4 team that should not even be in the playoffs.

[appgrad1]

[/quote]

You forgot to say how the Cats can lay a hit on the other team. ASU is taking this game way to be a cake wake. The Cats have never had problems defending the option running game. Why should this game be any different?

A game like they have the past two weeks, ASU will be wondering how they could have lost to that 8-4 team that should not even be in the playoffs.[/quote]

I can assure you and all Bobcat fans that ASU does NOT think this will be a cake wake, or cake walk, or cat walk, or whatever. Further, if you look REEAALL carefully, you'll note ASU does not run an option.

Seriously though, ASU will not be overlooking the Bobcats. I do hope you bring your best game.

WELCOME TO THE ROCK.

[bobcatmaniac]

You forgot to say how the Cats can lay a hit on the other team. ASU is taking this game way to be a cake wake. The Cats have never had problems defending the option running game. Why should this game be any different?

A game like they have the past two weeks, ASU will be wondering how they could have lost to that 8-4 team that should not even be in the playoffs.[/quote]

I can assure you and all Bobcat fans that ASU does NOT think this will be a cake wake, or cake walk, or cat walk, or whatever. Further, if you look REEAALL carefully, you'll note ASU does not run an option.

Seriously though, ASU will not be overlooking the Bobcats. I do hope you bring your best game.

WELCOME TO THE ROCK.[/quote]

Have no fear, we will bring our best game.

[Cat in NC]

Personally, nothing makes me happier than Matt picking ASU by 14. In fact, I hope that EVERYONE picks ASU by 14. I hope that there's a big banner in the airport greeting the Cats upon arrival saying "The Mountaineers will win by 14...or more!".

This MSU team is motivated already (not that App isn't), and more of the "Us against the world" mentality can do nothing but good for our boys.

[ChiOCat]

Personally, nothing makes me happier than Matt picking ASU by 14. In fact, I hope that EVERYONE picks ASU by 14. I hope that there's a big banner in the airport greeting the Cats upon arrival saying "The Mountaineers will win by 14...or more!".

This MSU team is motivated already (not that App isn't), and more of the "Us against the world" mentality can do nothing but good for our boys.

So when will you be putting that banner up??

[CARDIAC_CATS]

Of course hard-hitting football is not confined to the State of Montana -- I'm pretty sure that Bobcats fans (and more importantly the coaching staff and the team) know that the Mountaineers will deliver their fair share of bone rattling hits. The determination part comes into play when the player is flat on his back wondering what just ran over him; he shows his determination by dusting off his butt and getting back into the fracus on the next play. It will be a game of many hard hits by both teams. I'm looking forward to watching it -- I've already wheeled a second TV into my front room so I can watch the Griz and the Cats at the same time.

If App. State doesn't think the Cats can take a few hits they're in for a big surprise. Did they not watch Griz-Cat and see how they got back up over and over again?

Cats by 3.

It remains to be seen, but I think the Cats have already played the toughest defensive team they have seen this year (Kudos to Griz). I'll keep an open mind, but if Apps. D is better than the Griz's D this year I will be amazed. The Cat's D is NO SLOUCH either.

And yes, the CATS have no quit in them at all. Pancaked/hard hit/held/face masked you name it, they come ready to play the very next play. App. State better be ready for a brawl because that is what they are going to get from the Cats.

[CatsRback]

the key phrase in D's prediction is 'pull-away in the second half.' Even Matt sees the CATS defensive ability and recognizes that we should have a very reasonable chance to win this game. If, however, we have a series of '3 and outs' like we did against the griz in the 3rd quarter - i'm pretty sure App State will be able to take advantage for a couple of quick scores. - our defense is quick, swarming and aggressive - it works well when they have a little time to rest - but will give up big plays in the second half unless the offense comes through with at least a couple of first downs.

[Cat Grad]

My main concern is can Taito get the ball more than 17 times this week? As fast as the skill kids for Ape are, we need every aspect of the game to contribute and it's asking WAY TOO MUCH to expect the defense to stay on the field as much as they are required to be out there Here's hoping for a little more balance in our offense, but...

[Bleedinbluengold]

I don't really disagree with anything that Matt said above except for the final score. I think this game will be decided by 3 points or less. In all seriousness, this game is setting up to be a Cat-Griz type affair. Fast players on both sides of the ball for both teams, who hit as good as anyone in I-AA.

Appy is a GREAT team from a GREAT conference. I have NO doubt our coaching staff and players realize this, and are probably spending HOURS trying to find a weakness, that may not even be there.

Just as Cat/Griz, one team won't be able to overcome being on the minus side of the turnover margin. Cats got 3 TO's in Missoula, but gave up 4.

I think it was a big advantage for the Cats having had to play in Missoula this year, because I think App State fans and their stadium are comparable.

Can't Wait 'Til Saturday!

[Cat in NC]

Personally, nothing makes me happier than Matt picking ASU by 14. In fact, I hope that EVERYONE picks ASU by 14. I hope that there's a big banner in the airport greeting the Cats upon arrival saying "The Mountaineers will win by 14...or more!".

This MSU team is motivated already (not that App isn't), and more of the "Us against the world" mentality can do nothing but good for our boys.

So when will you be putting that banner up??

I don't think I can beat them to the airport (don't know where they're flying into), but maybe I can find out where they're staying and drive up there tonight. I could put on my Yosef halloween mask, strap a banjo across my back and spray paint the street in front of their hotel with "No one thinks you have a chance, Montana sissy-boys. You might as well go home!" It would almost be worth the jail time...almost.