MSU will get in

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:42 pm

It's pretty simple. The committee says a lot of things that it doesn't back up. They say they aren't going to be regional, but other than UM the best record out west is 7-4.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 9:52 pm

These six teams are in: Furman, So. Ill. Tenn-Mart, Ill. St., New Hamp., James Madison. All are 8-3 or better and from autobidconferences.

On bubble: MSU, PSU, Monmouth (10-1), Wofford (7-4), Del. St. (9-2). The committee will take two of these six. It will come down to PSU and MSU for one. MSU will get it. I say this because the SSU AD is running the show and he saw up close how MSU played SSU and how PSU played them. He also knows MSU beat PSU 14-0. But MSU's defense completely shut down SSU and they only reason they were in the game was due to punting mistakes.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:08 pm

You are completely forgetting Eastern Illilnois & Coastal Carolina, both of whom are probably solidly in.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:14 pm

EIU has the autobid out of the OVC. But I'd add CC to the list. Still the Committee will take another team from out west and that team will be MSU. You'll see.

1BadBobcat · Post by **1BadBobcat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:15 pm

I consider myself to be an optimist, but at the same time a realist. Looking at our nonconference losses, a 7-4 record, and with what happened around the nation in other games today, I just don't see us getting a bid. Believe me, there is nothing more I would love than to watch our Cats in the playoffs. I really don't even care if we got the #16 seed and had to play Appalachian State. But frankly, it is probably not going to happen. Our 7-4 record last year was much more impressive with wins against Stephan F. Austin, NDSU, Eastern Washington, and the Griz. And we didn't even get a sniff at the post-season. For some reason, PSU has the voters eyes and IF they take an at-large out of the BSC, it probably will be them (Bullsh@t in my opinion, but I don't get a vote).

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:19 pm

1Bad: What you need to do is ask yourself if not us, then who? The committee isn't going to take a team from a non-autobid conference unless it has wracked up some wins against autobid teams.

The have two spots to settle and one will be a Big Sky team. Don't compare it to last year. Sure maybe we were better last year, but that has nothing to do with this.

Pick yourselves up people. This is just like when we were 1-2, 1-3. A lot of people just hung their heads. We have a real shot at this.

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:23 pm

1BadBobcat wrote:I consider myself to be an optimist, but at the same time a realist. Looking at our nonconference losses, a 7-4 record, and with what happened around the nation in other games today, I just don't see us getting a bid. Believe me, there is nothing more I would love than to watch our Cats in the playoffs. I really don't even care if we got the #16 seed and had to play Appalachian State. But frankly, it is probably not going to happen. Our 7-4 record last year was much more impressive with wins against Stephan F. Austin, NDSU, Eastern Washington, and the Griz. And we didn't even get a sniff at the post-season. For some reason, PSU has the voters eyes and IF they take an at-large out of the BSC, it probably will be them (Bullsh@t in my opinion, but I don't get a vote).

I was optimistic until I read that. I suppose you are right but I am holding out hope that someone will stand up and say "MSU beat PSU" in the selection committee. I believe as was already stated that two teams from the west will be there.

1BadBobcat · Post by **1BadBobcat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:25 pm

crazycat wrote:1Bad: What you need to do is ask yourself if not us, then who? The committee isn't going to take a team from a non-autobid conference unless it has wracked up some wins against autobid teams.

The have two spots to settle and one will be a Big Sky team. Don't compare it to last year. Sure maybe we were better last year, but that has nothing to do with this.

Pick yourselves up people. This is just like when we were 1-2, 1-3. A lot of people just hung their heads. We have a real shot at this.

Nothing says they have to award an at-large to a team out of the BSC. There have been plenty of times that the BSC was only represented with one team (auto-bid winner). And like I mentioned before, PSU seems to be the 1-AA darlings because of their nonconference schedule of playing three 1-A teams (never mind that they got pasted in two of those.) I'm not down, just tryin' to keep it real.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:34 pm

1BadBobcat wrote:
crazycat wrote:1Bad: What you need to do is ask yourself if not us, then who? The committee isn't going to take a team from a non-autobid conference unless it has wracked up some wins against autobid teams.

The have two spots to settle and one will be a Big Sky team. Don't compare it to last year. Sure maybe we were better last year, but that has nothing to do with this.

Pick yourselves up people. This is just like when we were 1-2, 1-3. A lot of people just hung their heads. We have a real shot at this.
Nothing says they have to award an at-large to a team out of the BSC. There have been plenty of times that the BSC was only represented with one team (auto-bid winner). And like I mentioned before, PSU seems to be the 1-AA darlings because of their nonconference schedule of playing three 1-A teams (never mind that they got pasted in two of those.) I'm not down, just tryin' to keep it real.

If that's the way you want to look at it, there's nothing I can do about it. I'm not giving up yet. Just like back in September. PSU will only go as far as the SSU AD takes them. He will have to make a choice between MSU and PSU. Once he does that he'll argue that team against the others for the two remaining spots. If we can win six of seven with our only loss being a narrow one at the No. 2 team in the nation, then I think the cmte will give that a lot of credence.

In our last seven games, we're 6-1 with a road loss at Montana by six and we had a great shot to win it at the end. Who, of the teams on the bubble, has done better than that? Answer: No one. How you finish will carry more weight than how you started.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 10:44 pm

crazycat wrote:EIU has the autobid out of the OVC. But I'd add CC to the list. Still the Committee will take another team from out west and that team will be MSU. You'll see.

UT-Martin is the autobid out of the OVC.

GrizinWashington · Post by **GrizinWashington** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:02 pm

Although I'd love to see the cats in, I think it would be somewhat of a shock if they get in. They didn't get a great deal of help around the country, and I really believe PSU will get chosen ahead of msu. You can certainly say it blows due to the head to head victory. But the committee seems to put more emphasis on bad losses than they do good wins. And PSU has no bad losses, and the cats have 3 of them. I think that will be the coffin nail for msu's playoff hopes.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:05 pm

anacondagriz wrote:
crazycat wrote:EIU has the autobid out of the OVC. But I'd add CC to the list. Still the Committee will take another team from out west and that team will be MSU. You'll see.
UT-Martin is the autobid out of the OVC.

Either way. They'll both go. One as auto, one as at-large. There's still two spots left. It's between MSU and PSU for one. Cal Poly would've got it, but only has six DI wins. San Diego won't get it. Both MSU and PSU will be in the top 16 in the Sagarin and GPI, so they won't leave them both out. I think if it was up the cmte, w/o the SSU AD, they'd just take PSU. I think the SSU AD is going to say MSU is better than PSU and the cmte will go along.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:12 pm

GrizinWashington wrote:Although I'd love to see the cats in, I think it would be somewhat of a shock if they get in. They didn't get a great deal of help around the country, and I really believe PSU will get chosen ahead of msu. You can certainly say it blows due to the head to head victory. But the committee seems to put more emphasis on bad losses than they do good wins. And PSU has no bad losses, and the cats have 3 of them. I think that will be the coffin nail for msu's playoff hopes.

Actually they got quite a bit of help. The Towson, Maine and Tenn. State losses were big, but I just realized that Del. St. lost so drop them from original list of teams on the bubble. It's now down to five teams for two spots. MSU, PSU, Monmouth (doubt it) Coastal Carolina, and Wofford. I'd kick Monmouth out.

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:17 pm

crazycat wrote:
Actually they got quite a bit of help. The Towson, Maine and Tenn. State losses were big, but I just realized that Del. St. lost so drop them from original list of teams on the bubble. It's now down to five teams for two spots. MSU, PSU, Monmouth (doubt it) Coastal Carolina, and Wofford. I'd kick Monmouth out.

Don't forget 7-4 Northern Iowa, and like them or not you have to have San Diego as a bubble team as well...

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:22 pm

crazycat wrote:
GrizinWashington wrote:Although I'd love to see the cats in, I think it would be somewhat of a shock if they get in. They didn't get a great deal of help around the country, and I really believe PSU will get chosen ahead of msu. You can certainly say it blows due to the head to head victory. But the committee seems to put more emphasis on bad losses than they do good wins. And PSU has no bad losses, and the cats have 3 of them. I think that will be the coffin nail for msu's playoff hopes.
Actually they got quite a bit of help. The Towson, Maine and Tenn. State losses were big, but I just realized that Del. St. lost so drop them from original list of teams on the bubble. It's now down to five teams for two spots. MSU, PSU, Monmouth (doubt it) Coastal Carolina, and Wofford. I'd kick Monmouth out.

Crazycat
You'd make a good lawyer and I hope to hell you're right. You should make a personal call to that SSU AD and give him the scoop just to make sure he's thinking straight.

DCC2MSU · Post by **DCC2MSU** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:23 pm

I hate to say it, but I think PSU has a pretty good claim. Those early losses really kill us. During conference play, they outscored their opponents 200-99, whereas we outscored ours 170-145. We just had to many close games. Even if it was due to the roll punts as in the case of Sac State, that is still part of the game. You could also say the New Mexico win was bigger than CU because they beat CSU (which beat CU) and played Missouri closer than CU did. I hope I'm wrong, but I've got a bad feeling about this one.

WyomingGrizFan · Post by **WyomingGrizFan** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:32 pm

Either way. They'll both go. One as auto, one as at-large.

There should really be a disclaimer on the Ohio Valley Conference with Tennessee-Martin (6 - 1 conf.) not playing an equal amount of conf. opponents as most of the other teams did; Eastern Illinois having a twelve game regular season schedule ending @ 8 - 4 (7 - 1 conf.)? It's an auto-bid conference & this seems to force the NCAA Selection Committee for I-AA to take both which I find rather dubious at best (excluding other more deserving teams just because of a fluke). If I was choosing I'd pick who won between the two (Tenn-Martin won 15 - 9) & leave it at that. So what about Eastern Illinois?

I thought only I-A teams could schedule twelve games.

Post by **kmax** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:40 pm

WyomingGrizFan wrote:
Either way. They'll both go. One as auto, one as at-large.
There should really be a disclaimer on the Ohio Valley Conference with Tennessee-Martin (6 - 1 conf.) not playing an equal amount of conf. opponents as most of the other teams did; Eastern Illinois having a twelve game regular season schedule ending @ 8 - 4 (7 - 1 conf.)? It's an auto-bid conference & this seems to force the NCAA Selection Committee for I-AA to take both which I find rather dubious at best (excluding other more deserving teams just because of a fluke). If I was choosing I'd pick who won between the two (Tenn-Martin won 15 - 9) & leave it at that. So what about Eastern Illinois?

I thought only I-A teams could schedule twelve games.

They have a waiver if a team plays Hawaii, once every so many years you can take that as an extra game.

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:45 pm

kmax wrote: They have a waiver if a team plays Hawaii, once every so many years you can take that as an extra game.

Wow, really? Whoever does our football scheduling should get all over this deal! I'll call my travel agent...why a waiver for Hawaii only? That seems a bit dumb.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Sat Nov 18, 2006 11:46 pm

MSU01 wrote:
kmax wrote: They have a waiver if a team plays Hawaii, once every so many years you can take that as an extra game.
Wow, really? Whoever does our football scheduling should get all over this deal! I'll call my travel agent...why a waiver for Hawaii only? That seems a bit dumb.

Its an enticement for teams to actually spend the money to fly a couple hundred people out to Hawaii.