Grizzly George's Playoff Scenarios

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:26 pm

STREETCAT wrote:Realisticly there is no way that we would host a first round game with an 8-3 record. Simply for the fact that missoula will get a home game no matter if they finished the season 7-4 (which i doubt will happen too) due to the fact that they would can easily double the money we could bring in.

Second I would highly doubt they would give two teams from the same conference a home game.

When we win out we will be on the road probably against a team from either the Gateway or the Southland

I'm not sure if that is correct. Let's say we end up ranked 12th and draw Cal Poly. We'd definitely outbid Poly and they'd come here?

STREETCAT · Post by **STREETCAT** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:37 pm

catatac wrote:
STREETCAT wrote:Realisticly there is no way that we would host a first round game with an 8-3 record. Simply for the fact that missoula will get a home game no matter if they finished the season 7-4 (which i doubt will happen too) due to the fact that they would can easily double the money we could bring in.

Second I would highly doubt they would give two teams from the same conference a home game.

When we win out we will be on the road probably against a team from either the Gateway or the Southland
I'm not sure if that is correct. Let's say we end up ranked 12th and draw Cal Poly. We'd definitely outbid Poly and they'd come here?

Poly wont even be there they got NDSTATE and the GRIZ left

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 4:52 pm

Cat-theotherwhitemeat wrote:
GOKATS wrote:If the Cats win out and get the auto-bid we'll be 8-3. Whether that would get us a home game or not depends on how the other teams finish and our ranking at the end of the season.
From what I understand, after the top four seeds, it is done with a bidding process. Anyone?

It is a bid process, but a bid doesn't guarantee a home game. Some teams don't put in a bid, and the committee decides the remaining four home teams from those who do bid along with the other selection criteria.

Citizen Griz · Post by **Citizen Griz** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 8:49 pm

The odds of MSU getting into the playoffs without beating the Griz are slim to none. Here’s why:
The NCAA gives out eight automatic berths to the conference champions of full-scholarship football conferences with at least six members. The conferences are the Atlantic 10, Patriot, Gateway, Big Sky, Southern, Ohio Valley, Mid-Eastern and Southland.
It doesn’t matter what the record of the conference champ is, or whether they are ranked. They are guaranteed a spot, but not the chance to host. If your team is on the bubble and hoping to squeeze into the playoffs with 3 or 4 losses, the last thing you want is for a team with an auto bid to have as many, or more, losses than you have. Only one or two 3 or 4 loss teams are likely to make it in and if some of those teams are guaranteed a spot, then a bubble team waiting for an invite gets left out.
If the playoff teams were selected tomorrow, one 3-loss team would already be in. Sam Houston State with three losses has the best record of any team in its conference. They might not win the Southland, but if they don’t then the conference will send a 4, maybe even a 5 loss team.
The other thing a bubble team doesn’t want, is a team not even in the top 25 to get in on an auto bid. The Patriot Conference currently doesn’t have a single team ranked in the top 25, but league leader Holy Cross, at 7-2 in a rotten conference, would get invited if the selections occurred today.
Those two auto bids probably take care of #16 and #15 in the bracket, which means six of the remaining spots are spoken for and eight are up for grabs.
Here’s the six guaranteed if the selection took place now:
A10: U-Mass (one loss) no. 4
Gateway: Ill State (one loss) no. 3
Big Sky: UM (one loss) no.2
Southern: App State (one loss) no.1
Ohio Valley: Tenn-Martin (one loss) no. 12
MEAC: Hampton (one loss) no. 17
I included the poll position of each team not to suggest how they might be seeded, but rather to show how many top. 16 teams at the moment would be (just like MSU) vying for at large bids. There are eight top 16 teams looking for an invite:
A10: James Madison (one loss) no.5; New Hampshire (two losses) no. 11; Richmond (two losses) no. 13; Maine (two losses) no. 15.
Gateway: UNI (two losses) no. 7; YSU (two losses) no. 10.
Ohio Valley: E. Ill (three losses) no. 14.
Great West: Cal Poly (two losses) no.9
If those teams in the top 16, but needing an invite get their invites, then there are no spots left. If one of them loses, then with only two losses and playing in a tough, tough conference, no. 19 S. Illinois probably gets the last spot.
Is there anything working in MSU’s favor? Yes.
Princeton, NDSU, Cal Davis and Harvard, all ranked ahead of MSU and (except 4-3 Davis) with better records are not eligible for consideration. San Diego is not in a full-scholarship conference and isn’t likely to be invited.
East Illinois, while highly ranked does not have a I-A win, as MSU does. But their losses are to Hawaii, Illinois and Illinois State – tough teams for a I-AA school.
Portland State, who is ahead of MSU in the polls is good for at least one more loss, or at least let’s hope so for your sake. You also beat PSU, which is good.
Anything else working for the ‘Cats? Yes.
S. Ill still has to play YSU at Youngstown and UNI at S. Ill.
Maine has to play UMass at UMass and NH at Orono.
Cal Poly has a brutal three game sched and might not even be a factor by Nov. 19 (you best be cheering for the Griz Nov. 4).
Anything else? Yes. MSU really has only one big challenge left UM, a game that it gets two weeks to prepare for.
The bottom line, MSU should have defeated the 2-6 Eastern Eagles when it had the chance. Now it needs a lot of help.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:03 pm

I would say that's a fairly accurate portrayal of the playoff picture at this point based upon what I've been reading on other sites. It's interesting to note that there are a lot of very big matchups left in the season that will certainly have an effect on who ultimately goes; mostly in the A-10 and Gateway.

Gonna be another thrilling finish to the season nationwide again. $\:D/$

Citizen Griz · Post by **Citizen Griz** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 9:25 pm

True. The best case scenerio for MSU would be a I-AA finish like last year when outside of the top 4 teams in IAA, there was only one other top 16 team to finish with two losses. Everyone else had three or more. The scheduling among contenders this year though makes it a little more likely that there will be more teams with two losses on the season come Nov. 19.
I don't know who the Big Sky's rep on the selection committee is this year, either. You really need a good rep to make the case (shamelessly if need be) for a second Big Sky team.

torrybruce · Post by **torrybruce** » Thu Oct 26, 2006 10:21 pm

My one thought, and I haven't really read the entire thread, is that if we had a stadium of about 3-4,000 more we could get one of the invites. Last year UM didn't get the automatic invite and EWU did, but didn't get the host...why is that...money. I think both teams were deserving of a playoff bid, but when it really comes down to it the berths have some impact based upon the bankroll of the teams involved in the tournament.

Citizen Griz · Post by **Citizen Griz** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 12:45 am

torrybruce wrote:My one thought, and I haven't really read the entire thread, is that if we had a stadium of about 3-4,000 more we could get one of the invites. Last year UM didn't get the automatic invite and EWU did, but didn't get the host...why is that...money. I think both teams were deserving of a playoff bid, but when it really comes down to it the berths have some impact based upon the bankroll of the teams involved in the tournament.

I don't think Eastern not getting to host a game had anything to do with the size of their stadium or their bank account, Torry. Eastern earned the automatic bid as the Big Sky co-champ that beat the the other two co-champs (MSU and UM). But with four losses, they also had the worst record of any team in the playoffs. So they drew a top tier team, Northern Iowa, which four weeks after beating the Eagles, made it to the championship game. UNI wasn't a top four seed, so both schools got a chance, if they wanted to submit bids, assuring the NCAA a certain gate for the game. As Bobcat fans know well, UNI fans turn out for big games. Eastern fans don't.

Cat in NC · Post by **Cat in NC** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 5:06 am

Good post by Citizen Griz. The only thing I see left out (unless I misread, which I often do) is a mention of Furman being one of the top 16 teams looking for an invite. Currently #8 and second in the SoCon to App State. Of course, all that could change tomorrow when the two meet. Furman wins and everything becomes more of a mess, with the Paladins taking the SoCon lead and App pretty much guaranteed one of the at large bids, with two losses (1 to NC State) and two relatively easy opponents remaining. App State wins and Furman looks in some trouble for an at-large, as they'll have 3 losses with an easy one against Elon and a REAL difficult one with Georgia Southern remaining.

Also, the San Diego situation is a real pickle. They're kicking the crap out of everyone they're playing and Harbaugh is raising quite a stink about them not getting respect, yet their schedule is a joke. I see that the weird "bowl" game that the mid-majors play has been moved to allow USD to go to the playoffs (should they be invited). Also, Cal-Davis has expressed willingness to adjust the Davis/USD game (which is scheduled for the same day as the first round of the playoffs) to accomodate them. The big problem with that is Davis is one of the only meaningful games (outside of Yale) on the USD schedule, and a win that would mean a lot towards USD getting an invite. Soooooo, I don't think USD gets in (but that's just my meaningless opinion).

All that being said, all I care about is the Cats winning out.

STREETCAT · Post by **STREETCAT** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:25 am

Realisticly with two wins before cat griz we and other tems losing due to playing other ranked opponents, the cats could be ranked lower than 16 when they play the Griz

94VegasCat · Post by **94VegasCat** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:11 am

My thoughts on MSU hosting a game (provided we win out) is that our stadium capacity is one of the top 20 in the country. We are seating over 100% capacity weekly. Statistically we put more butts in seats than most other teams in the country. Look back at some of the numbers from the last ten years. um is an exception to the rule with their large stadium. Even though it seats 23K, they haven't always OVER seated it. (don't jump on me, um fans, it's true)

I think that if MSU hosted a 1st round game, we would PACK the place and the NCAA should hopefully take that into consideration. MSU alumni are so hungry for a home playoff game, I would suspect the place to be sold out the day of the pairings.

Also, if we do win out, we would likely move up in the polls each week. PSU will most likely move down after losing to OU this weekend, possibly below MSU if we win. There are several key matchups the next two weekends. Somebody has to lose.

Most importantly, if the CATS go in and beat um, do the griz fall from the top 4 seeds? Or does their almighty reputation keep them there and the get homefield throughtout? THAT WOULD PISS ME OFF. If the griz are still at #2 or even #1 and MSU goes to their house and wins, I would think that we should move into a position close to the top 10. That should assure us of a good matchup in the first week of the playoffs. (I mean a home game!!)

Cat in NC · Post by **Cat in NC** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 9:20 am

Just based on the current state of things (and assuming that there are no major upsets in the next few weeks, with one BIG exception), I think that a loss to the Cats will definitely cost the Griz a top 4 seed. If everyone wins out and the Griz fall to the mighty Bobcats, there are just too many teams nipping at the Griz (and every other member of the top 5) heels to not get passed. Of course, there are bound to be upsets and my little entry just wasted everyones' time...

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:14 am

Citizen Griz wrote:True. The best case scenerio for MSU would be a I-AA finish like last year when outside of the top 4 teams in IAA, there was only one other top 16 team to finish with two losses. Everyone else had three or more. The scheduling among contenders this year though makes it a little more likely that there will be more teams with two losses on the season come Nov. 19.
I don't know who the Big Sky's rep on the selection committee is this year, either. You really need a good rep to make the case (shamelessly if need be) for a second Big Sky team.

Terry Wanless- Sac. St.

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:24 am

Yes, most of the posts I've seen on this look realistic. No way we make the playoffs if we lose to the Griz, and only a tiny, tiny chance of making them if we slip up in one of the next 2 games and still beat the Griz. I see the Griz losing one of the next three, so most likely they'll be 9-2 going in to our game... they won't end in the top 4.

083190 · Post by **083190** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 11:37 am

Here's scenario...Cats win out. Make the playoffs, here is the kicker, the Cats end up on the road (of course!), Missoula hosts ( because the NCAA is a bunch of whores). Then if they both win, the Cats have to go back to Missoula( the whore thing again $$$$). Not fair maybe, but it could happen and very well may.

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 1:04 pm

Cat in NC wrote:Just based on the current state of things (and assuming that there are no major upsets in the next few weeks, with one BIG exception), I think that a loss to the Cats will definitely cost the Griz a top 4 seed. If everyone wins out and the Griz fall to the mighty Bobcats, there are just too many teams nipping at the Griz (and every other member of the top 5) heels to not get passed. Of course, there are bound to be upsets and my little entry just wasted everyones' time...

Maybe not. Most of the A-10 leaders have yet to play each other, ditto for the Gateway.

bcats · Post by **bcats** » Fri Oct 27, 2006 8:06 pm

We are going to win out and get the automatic berth to the playoffs. Our 8-3 record should be enough to warrant a home game in my opinion. The winner of the Big Sky should get a home game in my opinion. If we don't I won't cry if we go on the road though because we will be undefeated on the road going in. Lets beat Weber first and then worry about UNC.