TOP 8 Seeds/Top 12 Teams
Not any change in my END OF SEASON guess of the Top 8 seeds. More movement among the remaining contenders. I moved up URI and Villanova as possible top 8 seeds and dropped out SIU and Ill. State from my list of top 12. I made no changes in the Top 8 prediction. That may change after this week’s games.
1) NDSU: 12-0; If they win the Marker, they might cruise to the #1 seed.
2) Tarleton State: Still hard to see the Texans losing any games. Would they be ahead of a 10-2 MSU Yes. Playoff committee thinks so now. No losses won’t change their mind.
3) MSU: We win out with almost all strong games.
4) SDSU: Lose the Marker and then fans revolt and tear down the suites at Dykhouse Stadium. Forced to play in a high school stadium the rest of the year, the Jack’s lose to ISU (or UND at the Horror Dome).
5) Gris: The Pandas have an offense for sure. Not sure about a defense.
6) UC Davis: Bye week. UNC on the slate.
7) UND – 2 easy games, three big games. Will the Alerus Dome work its magic on NDSU and SDSU
8 ) Monmouth: Still Rolling. No losses in sight.
All others still in the conversation….
MAYBE STILL
Tennessee Tech: Seems more and more like they will be in Top 8 if they win out. But who do they replace?
Lehigh – another team that may go undefeated but a 12-0 Lehigh even with a horrible SOS could nab number 8.
Rhode Island: At 6-2 they are back in contention.
Villanova: Haven’t lost since the Monmouth game and could push to 10-2. Suddenly the unbalanced CAA schedule is a great way to get a seed!
Outliers
Harvard – Not likely with only 10 games
Abilene Christian – Only if they beat Tarleton State and win out. Doesn’t look good now.
South Dakota: 5-3 with a win last week. Tough schedule ahead but the game today is playoff eliminator for USD or Ill. State. I moved them up from the dropout list.
Dropouts from my previous lists
Ill. State: tough last 5 weeks. Today against USD is critical.
SIU – Lost 2 in a row. Didn’t beat UND. IN danger of missing the playoffs. Not much of a defense.
Idaho: 4 losses in a row including to lowly Eastern? How the mighty have fallen.
BEST FCS TEAM – OFFENSE/DEFENSE POWER RANKING
I dropped SIU and Illinois State out of my 12 best teams and much to my chagrin, added Villanova and Rhode Island to the list. I may revise my list next week. I don’t believe that Lehigh and Rhode Island can even win a single playoff game and certainly will not get a Top 8 seed. But then again, Lehigh won a game last year and put some heat on Idaho for a time
Our comparative chart of the best offensive and defensive teams among my top 12 did not see much change at the top even with the addition of two new teams. Partly because there were 3 or 4 byes. Mostly because the winners kept winning.
On the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee Tech continues to lead the pack after running up 52 points against Lindenwood and nearly 500 yards of total offense. By adding Villanova, NDSU’s score dropped slightly and they moved to third (by a hair) with Monmouth moving to #2. No one really dropped. Rhode Island has an anemic offense (11th out of 12th) while Nova is in the middle of the pack.
The bid D is still NDSU with the Cats in second place. Cats are well balanced on defense. Tennessee Tech is in third but they are vulnerable. Their rushing D is #1 but passing is #9. Partly this reflects how far behind teams get so early and have to pass the rest of the game. The vaunted Gris defense continues to score poorly and is rated #10 tied with UC Davis. Monmouth has the worst defense and if they ever play a team that can stop Derek Robertson they may be in trouble.
Finally in my Power Rankings, NDSU is #1, Tennessee Tech #2 and the Cats #3. Again, there is no adjustment for SOS in this simple ranking system. At the bottom of the pile are Rhode Island and Villanova. Surprisingly, Gris and Davis both rank low even though #4 and #6 in the polls. Both of these Big Sky teams do not have stellar defensive stats but have found a way to win.
CLICK TO ENLARGE CHARTS
BEST OFFENSE
BEST DEFENSE
CP POWER RANKINGS
BIG SKY GAMES
Eastern @ Weber – While I predict these two teams to near the bottom of the league, somehow Eastern is 2-1. Partly they played Portland State and partly due to the full collapse of the Vandals. I can’t see Eastern winning very many more games. Maybe 1 or 2 although right now I think they lose out. I have to see if Idaho victory was a one-off or some sort of rise of the Phoenix.
Weber not in a much better spot. They have to win out to get 8 victories and they play Gris, Cats and NAU. Not going to happen. But this game is essentially an elimination game for the loser. In Weber’s three wins they scored more than 38 points but PSU and McNeese state and a Pioneer team are not exactly stellar competition. Weber’s offense is 97th in the FCS while Eastern is 68th. On defensive side of the ball, it is pretty much a joke. Weber is 107 out of 126 while Eastern comes in at 121. Neither team could stop a high school team but somehow, they have both won three games. My feeling is Weber can pull one out at home in a high scoring, error prone game. Weber 38; Eastern 31.
UC Davis @ Northern Colorado – Might this game have upset special all over it? I took UNC last week and they ruined my 2 yearlong streak of picking more winners than losers my weekly Big Sky predictions. So, I am not going down the path again. Davis does have an excellent offensive scheme and with the 27th best offense. Pinnick is 18th in the nation in passing yards and as a team they are 24th.
What is a concern is Northern Colorado’s receiver corp and the ability of Cheeks to take 50-50 balls and streak down the field for touchdowns. He would have had three last week against Sac if not for one called back by stepping out of bounds. The Bears could have/should have won that game against Sac State. UNC has scored an average of 34 points per game in their three conference games. But the downside is they can’t stop anyone particularly against the run – ranked 112th. And Davis is not Sac State. My general sense is UNC pushes the ball up and down but their defense is weak and they make too many mistakes. But if they pull an upset, sure hope it is this week and not next week. What I really want to see is how good is Davis’s defense and how that might translate to their game against the Cats. UNC might keep it close for a while but playing at home gives them no mojo and Davis will pull away late – Davis 45 – UNC 27.
Portland State @ Idaho – Two weeks ago, I would have said this was a cakewalk for Idaho. Still might be but how the mighty Vandals have fallen. Was Eck the key to Idaho’s success the last three years? Or was it the decimation of the team after Eck took a huge number of starters to New Mexico with him? The injury to Joshua Woods has sent the team into a spiral. It sounds like he will play. However, Idaho’s hopes for a playoff spot are essentially done. At 2-5, Idaho has to win out to be 7-5. Because of the addition of the Ivy League as an 11th auto bid and the number of teams that look like they will have 8 wins, I don’t see any 7-5 teams getting into the playoffs. And frankly, Idaho is not going to win out. Nonetheless, a hapless PSU team at the Kibbie Dome is not going to pull the upset UNC did two weeks ago. Portland State may score some points against the weakened Vandal defense but their defense is even worse than Idaho’s. In a pointless game, Vandals 42 – PSU 28 (one more point than PSU has scored in any game to date.)
Northern Arizona @ Idaho State – This is a playoff game for NAU (and maybe all the remaining games). NAU can only afford one more loss to have any chance of making the playoffs. What is somewhat disappointing this year is that it is possible the Big Sky only has three teams in the playoffs. Only Sac State and NAU have a snowballs chance in hell of making the field.
So, Idaho State has only won a single D-1 game all year. So, it seems like NAU should stomp all over them, right? The problem for NAU is the matchup. NAU is 103rd in passing yards allowed and Idaho State is 3rd in passing offense. Not a good look. Now, ISU’s numbers are inflated by their game against the high school team from Oakland, CA (Lincoln) where they had something like 2,000 yards of offense and 90 points. The Bengals even lit it up some against the Cats and definitely did against the Gris. I have debated whether I call the upset but my bias gets in the way. We need to have NAU stay ranked so our resume is better as the season progresses. I think it is a shootout between Clarke and Pennington and NAU comes with the turnovers or stops to escape the dreaded Pocatello/Bengal/Idaho Central Credit Union/ICU whatever it is called dome. NAU – 45-ISU – 37.
BIG SKY PREDICTIONS (Not revised since last nights Gris victory - Gris are now a lock;Sac State is a Win Out Only option).
Cats @ Cal Poly
Not sure where to go with this game. Cal Poly is in the middle of the pack offensively and defensively among Big Sky teams. Not much of a rushing threat, they rely more on the passing game. Two months ago, this was a give me came. Now, not so much. They have three wins but one is a D2 win and one against San Diego of the Pioneer League. They did beat Sac State on the road and lead Montana for three quarters in WaGris. But the bottom line is simple. Cal Poly is not a playoff team and the Cats have to win their next three games in a dominating fashion to have any chance of a Top 4 seed moving into the gauntlet of Davis and Gris. CATS 42 – Cal Poly 17.
GO CATS!