2025 Path to the Playoffs WEEK 10 – BRACKETOLOGY (CATS LOSE THE BRAWL) – BEST OFFENSE/DEFENSE - BIG SKY GAMES

[Catprint]

PART II- Top 8 Seeds; CP Power Ranking; Big Sky Previews

TOP 8 Seeds/Top 12 Teams

Not any change in my END OF SEASON guess of the Top 8 seeds. More movement among the remaining contenders. I moved up URI and Villanova as possible top 8 seeds and dropped out SIU and Ill. State from my list of top 12. I made no changes in the Top 8 prediction. That may change after this week’s games.

1) NDSU: 12-0; If they win the Marker, they might cruise to the #1 seed.
2) Tarleton State: Still hard to see the Texans losing any games. Would they be ahead of a 10-2 MSU Yes. Playoff committee thinks so now. No losses won’t change their mind.
3) MSU: We win out with almost all strong games.
4) SDSU: Lose the Marker and then fans revolt and tear down the suites at Dykhouse Stadium. Forced to play in a high school stadium the rest of the year, the Jack’s lose to ISU (or UND at the Horror Dome).
5) Gris: The Pandas have an offense for sure. Not sure about a defense.
6) UC Davis: Bye week. UNC on the slate.
7) UND – 2 easy games, three big games. Will the Alerus Dome work its magic on NDSU and SDSU
8 ) Monmouth: Still Rolling. No losses in sight.

All others still in the conversation….

MAYBE STILL
Tennessee Tech: Seems more and more like they will be in Top 8 if they win out. But who do they replace?

Lehigh – another team that may go undefeated but a 12-0 Lehigh even with a horrible SOS could nab number 8.

Rhode Island: At 6-2 they are back in contention.

Villanova: Haven’t lost since the Monmouth game and could push to 10-2. Suddenly the unbalanced CAA schedule is a great way to get a seed!

Outliers

Harvard – Not likely with only 10 games

Abilene Christian – Only if they beat Tarleton State and win out. Doesn’t look good now.

South Dakota: 5-3 with a win last week. Tough schedule ahead but the game today is playoff eliminator for USD or Ill. State. I moved them up from the dropout list.

Dropouts from my previous lists

Ill. State: tough last 5 weeks. Today against USD is critical.

SIU – Lost 2 in a row. Didn’t beat UND. IN danger of missing the playoffs. Not much of a defense.

Idaho: 4 losses in a row including to lowly Eastern? How the mighty have fallen.

BEST FCS TEAM – OFFENSE/DEFENSE POWER RANKING

I dropped SIU and Illinois State out of my 12 best teams and much to my chagrin, added Villanova and Rhode Island to the list. I may revise my list next week. I don’t believe that Lehigh and Rhode Island can even win a single playoff game and certainly will not get a Top 8 seed. But then again, Lehigh won a game last year and put some heat on Idaho for a time

Our comparative chart of the best offensive and defensive teams among my top 12 did not see much change at the top even with the addition of two new teams. Partly because there were 3 or 4 byes. Mostly because the winners kept winning.

On the offensive side of the ball, Tennessee Tech continues to lead the pack after running up 52 points against Lindenwood and nearly 500 yards of total offense. By adding Villanova, NDSU’s score dropped slightly and they moved to third (by a hair) with Monmouth moving to #2. No one really dropped. Rhode Island has an anemic offense (11th out of 12th) while Nova is in the middle of the pack.

The bid D is still NDSU with the Cats in second place. Cats are well balanced on defense. Tennessee Tech is in third but they are vulnerable. Their rushing D is #1 but passing is #9. Partly this reflects how far behind teams get so early and have to pass the rest of the game. The vaunted Gris defense continues to score poorly and is rated #10 tied with UC Davis. Monmouth has the worst defense and if they ever play a team that can stop Derek Robertson they may be in trouble.

Finally in my Power Rankings, NDSU is #1, Tennessee Tech #2 and the Cats #3. Again, there is no adjustment for SOS in this simple ranking system. At the bottom of the pile are Rhode Island and Villanova. Surprisingly, Gris and Davis both rank low even though #4 and #6 in the polls. Both of these Big Sky teams do not have stellar defensive stats but have found a way to win.

CLICK TO ENLARGE CHARTS

BEST OFFENSE


BEST DEFENSE


CP POWER RANKINGS


BIG SKY GAMES

Eastern @ Weber – While I predict these two teams to near the bottom of the league, somehow Eastern is 2-1. Partly they played Portland State and partly due to the full collapse of the Vandals. I can’t see Eastern winning very many more games. Maybe 1 or 2 although right now I think they lose out. I have to see if Idaho victory was a one-off or some sort of rise of the Phoenix.

Weber not in a much better spot. They have to win out to get 8 victories and they play Gris, Cats and NAU. Not going to happen. But this game is essentially an elimination game for the loser. In Weber’s three wins they scored more than 38 points but PSU and McNeese state and a Pioneer team are not exactly stellar competition. Weber’s offense is 97th in the FCS while Eastern is 68th. On defensive side of the ball, it is pretty much a joke. Weber is 107 out of 126 while Eastern comes in at 121. Neither team could stop a high school team but somehow, they have both won three games. My feeling is Weber can pull one out at home in a high scoring, error prone game. Weber 38; Eastern 31.


UC Davis @ Northern Colorado – Might this game have upset special all over it? I took UNC last week and they ruined my 2 yearlong streak of picking more winners than losers my weekly Big Sky predictions. So, I am not going down the path again. Davis does have an excellent offensive scheme and with the 27th best offense. Pinnick is 18th in the nation in passing yards and as a team they are 24th.

What is a concern is Northern Colorado’s receiver corp and the ability of Cheeks to take 50-50 balls and streak down the field for touchdowns. He would have had three last week against Sac if not for one called back by stepping out of bounds. The Bears could have/should have won that game against Sac State. UNC has scored an average of 34 points per game in their three conference games. But the downside is they can’t stop anyone particularly against the run – ranked 112th. And Davis is not Sac State. My general sense is UNC pushes the ball up and down but their defense is weak and they make too many mistakes. But if they pull an upset, sure hope it is this week and not next week. What I really want to see is how good is Davis’s defense and how that might translate to their game against the Cats. UNC might keep it close for a while but playing at home gives them no mojo and Davis will pull away late – Davis 45 – UNC 27.

Portland State @ Idaho – Two weeks ago, I would have said this was a cakewalk for Idaho. Still might be but how the mighty Vandals have fallen. Was Eck the key to Idaho’s success the last three years? Or was it the decimation of the team after Eck took a huge number of starters to New Mexico with him? The injury to Joshua Woods has sent the team into a spiral. It sounds like he will play. However, Idaho’s hopes for a playoff spot are essentially done. At 2-5, Idaho has to win out to be 7-5. Because of the addition of the Ivy League as an 11th auto bid and the number of teams that look like they will have 8 wins, I don’t see any 7-5 teams getting into the playoffs. And frankly, Idaho is not going to win out. Nonetheless, a hapless PSU team at the Kibbie Dome is not going to pull the upset UNC did two weeks ago. Portland State may score some points against the weakened Vandal defense but their defense is even worse than Idaho’s. In a pointless game, Vandals 42 – PSU 28 (one more point than PSU has scored in any game to date.)

Northern Arizona @ Idaho State – This is a playoff game for NAU (and maybe all the remaining games). NAU can only afford one more loss to have any chance of making the playoffs. What is somewhat disappointing this year is that it is possible the Big Sky only has three teams in the playoffs. Only Sac State and NAU have a snowballs chance in hell of making the field.

So, Idaho State has only won a single D-1 game all year. So, it seems like NAU should stomp all over them, right? The problem for NAU is the matchup. NAU is 103rd in passing yards allowed and Idaho State is 3rd in passing offense. Not a good look. Now, ISU’s numbers are inflated by their game against the high school team from Oakland, CA (Lincoln) where they had something like 2,000 yards of offense and 90 points. The Bengals even lit it up some against the Cats and definitely did against the Gris. I have debated whether I call the upset but my bias gets in the way. We need to have NAU stay ranked so our resume is better as the season progresses. I think it is a shootout between Clarke and Pennington and NAU comes with the turnovers or stops to escape the dreaded Pocatello/Bengal/Idaho Central Credit Union/ICU whatever it is called dome. NAU – 45-ISU – 37.

BIG SKY PREDICTIONS (Not revised since last nights Gris victory - Gris are now a lock;Sac State is a Win Out Only option).




Cats @ Cal Poly

Not sure where to go with this game. Cal Poly is in the middle of the pack offensively and defensively among Big Sky teams. Not much of a rushing threat, they rely more on the passing game. Two months ago, this was a give me came. Now, not so much. They have three wins but one is a D2 win and one against San Diego of the Pioneer League. They did beat Sac State on the road and lead Montana for three quarters in WaGris. But the bottom line is simple. Cal Poly is not a playoff team and the Cats have to win their next three games in a dominating fashion to have any chance of a Top 4 seed moving into the gauntlet of Davis and Gris. CATS 42 – Cal Poly 17.


GO CATS!

[Catprint]

WEEK 10 – BRACKETOLOGY – TOP 7 – WHATS BEST AND WHATS LIKELY

This week I am releasing my post in two parts (or maybe three!) so I can get my initial bracket information out sooner than Friday or Saturday morning! Later this week, I will cover the top offenses/defenses, who we want to lose and Big Sky assessments and predictions

My first pass at the brackets is a bit unusual. I am only looking at the Top 7 teams and their chances for what seeded spot in the playoffs. I am only doing 7 because #8 is totally irrelevant in my mind. It might be filled by Tennessee Tech; Monmouth, Lehigh or a handful of outliers which I will cover in Part 2.

I believe the following teams are the clear favorites to nab a Top 7 seed. As I discussed later, I realize there is plenty of room for teams to falter outside the scoop of my predictions. But that’s why they play every Saturday. For now, other than the variables I discuss at the end, we will assume these are the Top 7 in alphabetical order.

Davis
MSU
NDSU
SDSU
Tarleton State (UTT)
UM
UND

While they are my choice for best teams, they happen to be the top 6 in the Stats Perform poll and #8 (UND). I do not consider Lehigh to be a Top 7 team. Reality is this late in the season the polls match the objective measures in categorizing the teams even if the order is not correct or justified.

What I have done is something I have not ever done before but then this season seems to be unusual in so many ways. I have broken my seed predictions into two main groups with each group having four scenarios. Group 1 is based on the assumption the CATS WIN OUT. All 4 scenarios within this group have this as the baseline. Group 2 (Which I have decided to post on Thursday) assumes the CATS lose the Brawl but win the next three games. Since I am obviously a homer, I feel no shame in making the Cats the center of my bracket predictions. With each scenario, I have the teams in seed order with their full record and their FCS record (unless they have an FBS victory in which case I add that to the resume). I also provide a short comment in the chart. After each scenario, I provide more explanation as necessary. I label each scenario as Best, Better, Ok and Worst in terms of what I think are the best matchups and combination of home games and travel.

Finally, I should clarify that in all the scenarios I have NDSU winning out. Sure, they could drop a game but I don’t see it. So, let’s get started and of course, there is lots to argue.

CATS WIN OUT

SCENARIO 1W




Here I have what right off the bat is probably the best of the 8 scenarios I lay out. SDSU loses to UND; UND loses to NDSU; Gris and Davis win out except when playing the Cats and Tarleton State loses to ACU or Austin Peay (on the last day of the year). I believe this is the only scenario where the Cats have a reasonable chance at the #2 seed. As I expressed last week, we needed SDSU to lose big to NDSU and we got that one needed starting point. My premise is our SOS will be the tie breaker in giving us the #2 seed over UTT. Our future SOS is 3 and UTT’s is 29. Both teams will have one FCS loss to a ranked team.

I put UM at #4 because of the head-to-head win over UND. It is possible that Gris could get #3 even after losing the Brawl but it would depend on a number of factors: the Brawl is really close; Tarleton plays poorly against ACU as well as losing to Austin Peay; Gris other games are blow outs. At this point Gris and UTT have basically the same SOS. Putting UND ahead of SDSU is a no brainer due to the head-to-head. I do think it is possible Davis could get the #7 seed and SDSU the 8th

SCENARIO 2W



In this scenario, I have Tarleton winning out but SDSU still losing another game. Essentially, I swapped the Cats and UTT in the seeds. I do not see any reasonable scenario where an undefeated UTT with an FBS win does not get the second seed. I know there will be arguments about SOS but the number of D-1 wins and D-1 loses are clear criteria for the committee.

This scenario is not horrible for the Cats. We get 2 home games and play Tarleton in Texas in the semi’s if we keep winning. But to be clear, Tarleton is not an easy upset at home. They have huge crowds (7th largest average attendance at 21,372 – same as Cats) and tickets to the game will be hard to come by. But I will take the Texans in the sunshine rather than Fargo or Brookings any day of the week. Everyone else holds serve.

SCENARIO 3W



Here, I have Tarleton losing a game but UND losing to NDSU AND SDSU. This gets a lot more speculative. SDSU now sits at 11-1 while the Cats are 10-2/10-1 vs. the FCS. Pretty obvious, the loss to SDSU will put the Cats at #3. Still have the issue where maybe Tarleton could jump the Cats to #3 but again SOS and play at the end of the season leans towards the Cats getting the higher seed. I see this as less desirable because after we play #14, we have to play Davis again at home and then take a trip to Brookings for the semis.

The next two differences over scenario #1 is I have now moved UND to the 7th seed at 8-4 (and 8-3 vs the FCS). This is an advantage to Davis. I can see an opportunity for Davis to move up to #5 depending on how poorly the Gris play. The non-counter in game one really starts to hurt Davis here. I can see a clear argument for bumping UND to 8th seed or out of a first-round bye and inserting (pick a team – Tenn. Tech; Lehigh; Monmouth) in this spot. But UND’s three losses will be to the #1; #2 and #5 team. SOS will be #1 in FCS. Guess we will find out how much the committee values SOS vs win/loss record.

SCENARIO 4W



NDSU, SDSU and Tarleton State all win out. Cats beat Davis and the Gris. While not the end of the world, this is clearly the worst scenario and reward for winning 10 games in a row and most (if not all) by two or more scores. Tarleton State and SDSU fight over the #2 seed but again I give it to UTT for same reasons as scenario #2. This leaves the Cats with #4 seed. There are lots of not so fun aspects to this seed. After playing #13, we have to face the Gris again but at least at home. If we can win twice in three weeks, we are rewarded with a trip to the Fargodome where I would expect a fairly substantial beat down. On top of that, I would see no reason to travel to the Fargodome while I would consider going to Brookings or Stevensville in late December. Now is it possible that strength of schedule and how teams play down the stretch might alter the Cats getting the 4th seed? Its possible the Jack's play really poorly but still win all four games while Cats are dominant. But I don't see a path to move ahead of a 12-0 Tarleton regardless of SOS. Nothing is going to be in our favor except a "Quality Loss"

More Coming Tomorrow - The Negative Side of the Brawl

[Prodigal Cat]

We are in agreement on the last part. Griz and Cat fans are a both confident they will jump Tarleton if they win out but most of the resume factors are in UTT's favor. Especially against the griz. More ranked wins, more total D1 wins and the end of season SOS is basically dead even with the griz. I also think the people dismissing them have watched very little of them play. They had a few close games but they were missing their starting QB, several RB's, their best DB and a defensive lineman. Injury bug hit them hard but they kept winning because they are a good, deep team. Now they are starting to get healthy and back to trucking teams. Hopefully the good Stone Earle shows up for ACU and not the one that throws a bunch of INT's and the Wildcats can pull off an upset.

[Catprint]

CATS LOSE THE BRAWL

Ok, I get it. Why do I even have these options? Am I not a believer? Am I jinxing the team? Yes, I am a believer. No, I don’t believe in Karma or Jinxes or bad juju or whatever. The reality is one of these scenarios in Group 2 are more likely than the ones in Group 1. Let’s look at the basic facts of life concerning the Brawl. The last four games were won by the home team. The last 10 games have been won by the home team 7 times. And one of those non-home team wins was indeed the closest thing to a miracle. In my view, 80% of the time the home team wins in the last 10 years. The Gris are good this year; very good on offense. They will be 11-0 coming into the game. They will have likely been challenged only twice all year – UND at home and ISU on the road. Yes, their defense is suspect but they are perfectly happy to win a shootout 48-45. That all said, this is about the path to the playoffs so….I did try to add some excitement to these scenarios since Cats losing the Brawl puts us in the #5 -#7 seed in most cases unless there are more upsets.

SCENARIO 1


With both SDSU and the Cats losing their last game in this scenario, the head-to-head becomes a key tie breaker. I have Gris at #2 as the only undefeated team other than NDSU. Very clear cut regardless of what you think about their schedule.

After the top three teams, it is more difficult to figure out the order. Does Davis jump everyone else because they only have one FCS loss even though they only have 9 wins? How much does head-to-head loss to Cats play into the committee’s decision? Maybe UND moves all the way to #3 due to SOS? There would be some difficult decisions by the committee.

The ideal seed is #6 in this scenario. We would play #11 seed and then get an away game in Texas against Tarleton State. Winnable? Maybe but is this realistic? How can Davis, with only 1 FBS loss be lower than the Cats? For now, this is how I have played out this scenario but honestly sure seems like Cats could end up #7 in this scenario with one home game and a return trip to West Bonner in game 2.

SCENARIO 2


Tarleton and Gris both win out; SDSU loses one to UND. Now the question is who gets #2 – Gris or Tarleton? The committee currently favors Tarleton but maybe they won’t if Gris win the Brawl big. For now, I see them as the #2 seed. There is lots of twitter and social media debate about whether Tarleton is good and who would get the number 2 seed in this scenario. Herder and McKinnell make decent arguments that Tarleton will have a similar resume to the Gris. I think it is a toss up but Big Sky bias might give the Gris the #2 seed. In a close loss, could our SOS somehow vault us about SDSU? Certainly not UND even though the same FCS record because UND would have the head-to-head over SDSU while we lost. I have Cats at #7 in this scenario. Actually, it’s not horrible because I decided to give UTT the second seed rather than the Gris. After our first home game, we travel to Tarleton in the sunshine of Texas. Maybe we win this game. Or maybe Tarleton is upset in their first game and Cats host a second game.

SCENARIO 3


SDSU wins out and UND goes 2-2 in final two games. Cats beat Davis handily and lose to Gris in a close game. In this scenario, SDSU winning out helps our resume and SOS. We get the #5 seed ahead of both Davis and UND. This means after playing our only guaranteed home game, we play Tarleton on the road – a winnable game. Final game would be in Fargo so it’s not great. UND gets #7 or even #8 seed due to losing to NDSU and SDSU. Davis is ahead of UND but behind MSU due to cancelled game, SOS and loss to MSU.

SCENARIO 4


Here I add Davis losing to Sac and SDSU and UTT both winning out. Here Tarleton again edging out the Gris for #2 seed but really depends on the last weekend and the depth of the win by either team. I think the Cats would get the #5 seed due to finishing the season at 3-1 while UND and Davis finish at 2-2. SOS helps us as well. This is a decent draw as #5 seed but it does send us to Brookings for our second game and then Fargo. Doesn’t seem much chance of avoiding that combination.

I want to point out some shortcomings of other published predictions – at least as I see them. A number of writers have scenarios where UM is #4 and Cats are #5 and would have a rematch in Missoula in the quarterfinals. I just don’t see how that happens. I feel like it is laziness on the part of the writers. First, for Gris to be 4 and Cats 5, the Gris need to win the Brawl. Fair enough. But then what? First, the Gris will be 12-0. I don’t see any seed less than #3 for a 12-0 Gris team. They would be ahead of SDSU. If not, that would seem to be a travesty. Secondly, the likelihood of the Cats getting the 5th seed are not great. Yes, this means UTT, SDSU, NDSU and UM all win out. Plus it has to assume that even though the Cats beat the Aggies, Davis doesn’t jump us with the same number of D-1 wins and one less FCS loss. Maybe if the game in Bozeman is tight, Davis jumps us in this scenario. But in any case, #4 for Gris and #5 for Cats is not exciting.

Some other “experts” have the Cats at #10 (that seems totally ignorant). We would have to lose 2 or maybe 3 games and no one else drops for that to happen. Also, I wonder about the FCS writers who put SDSU back to #2 at playoff time. The eye test and the stats simply don’t support that spot. They are a good team but not great. I think #4-#6 is far more likely. My opinion SDSU is just not moving in the right direction. Maybe I am wrong come Selection Sunday.

What else could happen before Selection Sunday? Just about anything. Here are some of the disruptors – Cats lose another game – maybe to Davis; maybe to UNC this weekend. UND drops 3 – NDSU, SIU and SDSU; pretty much drops them out of Top 7 and maybe out of the playoffs at 7-5. SDSU loses 2 games – UND and either USD or Ill. State. Davis loses to Cats AND Idaho or Sac State. These are some possible outlier events. But we will ignore for the sake of simplicity and belief these 7 are indeed the best teams.

WHO WE WANT TO LOSE

LAST WEEK – Not much good news for Cats on the front of who we want to lose.
1) William & Mary @ New Hampshire – W& M TO LOSE - GOT THIS ONE.
2) Illinois State @ South Dakota – ILL STATE TO LOSE - OH WELL, someone had to lose. Coyotes playoff hopes hanging on by a thread. Need to win 2 out of 3 and even then?
3) SEMO @ Tenn. Tech – NOPE - TT to Lose.
4) SFA @ East Texas A&M – NOPE- SFA to Lose.
5) Tarleton @ Eastern Kentucky – WISHES ONLY - NOPE, UTT to Lose.

THIS WEEK
Definitely need some games to break our way. Some weeks it just looks the same teams winning big and nary an upset on the horizon. We need some upsets just to make life more fun! (As long as not the Cats).
1) Tarleton State @ Abilene Christian – I want this one. Cats need this one. The prognosticators all think this is a fishy game; tough game to pick; a possible upset. Realistic? Probably not but anyway Tarleton State to Lose.
2) Gardner @ Tenn Tech – Will the Golden Eagles lose any games? Not likely as they plow through the Big South/OVC but this is one possible chance – TENN TECH TO LOSE.
3) UND @ USD – Here is my line of reasoning. Want USD and Southern Ill. to drop off the playoff hunt. Want UND hot so they challenge NDSU (but lose) and then able to drop SDSU to 9-3 on the last game of the year – USD TO LOSE.
4) Mercer @ Furman – The Mercer machine is running hot with a true freshman at QB. Atkinson is tearing up the record book. Hard to think Furman has the horses to match up with Mercer. But this conference always seems to drop some upsets in the second half of the season - MERCER TO LOSE.
5) UTRGV @ SFA – This is the match up of the abbreviations. We prefer to not allowing the Southland to have three spots in the playoff. SFA needs to lose a couple of games and fall out of the running – SFA TO LOSE.


TOP OFFENSE/TOP DEFENSE

Quick overview of the Top Offenses and defenses among the Top FCS teams shows not a ton of movement. Mostly we have seen SDSU drop in the defense and offense category due to their poor showing last week. Their score dropped but they were the worst offense by my measures among the top 12.

NDSU and Monmouth continue to top the best offenses and are tied at 3.25 ranking after last week. The Cats move just above the Gris due to the Gris relatively weak performance against Sac State and the strong rushing performance of the Cats. My system rewards balance in offense. Sitting at the bottom is Lehigh and SDSU. Wondering how SDSU is #2 in the country with a fairly anemic offense? Mostly based on their D in every game but last week.

BEST OFFENSE CHART



On the Defensive side, NDSU and MSU are the top defensive teams with significant balance. These two teams are the only two teams to place in the top 6 in every one of the four categories. Surprisingly (NOT), the Gris is just barely above Monmouth in defense. I wonder if they really are that bad or just how it pans out in the shootouts they find themselves in regularly. Monmouth’s defense is in fact that bad. They are almost dead last in every single category. I just have to be they will be shredded in the playoffs by a stronger team with more balance.

BEST DEFENSE CHART



The Catprint aggregate ranking puts NDSU as the #1 team; Cats as #2; Tennesse Tech as #3 and Tarleton as #4. Still, I have no adjustment for SOS because it is fairly difficult to figure out how I will do it. The funny thing is the undefeated teams (NDSU, Tenn. Tech, Tarleton State and Lehigh) are all near the top except the Gris who are 10th of the 12 teams in my aggregate ratings. Doesn’t mean much I suppose except they don’t play much defense.




BIG SKY PREDICTIONS

Making it short this week due to lack of time and energy. I wrote all of this AFTER the NAU-Idaho game but I was at my daughter’s Harvest Party and have not watched the game or looked at my phone. My record is 18-6 since the start of Big Sky conference play began. Still have 6 teams who still could make the playoff field. Truly? Only 4 possible - UM, MSU, Davis, NAU.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Idaho @ NAU – Seems like this should be a no brainer for NAU – playing well, at the SkyDome; Idaho failing but Woods is back for Idaho and NAU has looked up and down all season. But NAU knows this is a playoff game - NAU 27 – Idaho - 20

Gris @ Weber – Nothing to see here. Regardless of good or not good you think the Gris are this year (and I think they are pretty darn good), Weber is challenging PSU for the Chug-A-Log trophy and the bottom of the barrel. I can’t see any scenario where Weber is even in this game. Gris 45 – Weber 14

Sac State @ EWU – This game is a challenge. Sac sitting at 4-4 and 2-2 technically is still in the hunt for a playoff spot. But so is Eastern with a 3-game win streak. NO I do understand it was against Portland State, Weber and a decimated Idaho team. – basically, the three bottom feeders. Still maybe they are onto something… and Sac States quarterbacks look horrible. Can Marion make the go-go offense go with some gusto? Maybe the bigger question is whether either team shows up with a defense. In addition, Eastern has the worst offense when looking at only conference games. I think Sac pulls it together although just would not surprise me with an upset – Sac – 38 – Red Field 24

ISU @ Davis – Could Davis stumble here? Some sort of trap game? Davis’s defense is not exactly stellar particularly against the pass – they are 10 out of 12 in my top 12 rankings. Idaho State challenged the Gris and put up some good numbers when playing the Cats. But the Bengals have only 1 D-1 win and simply don’t have much of a defense. Aggies 37 – Yellow Stripes 21

PSU @ Cal Poly – Cal Poly is much improved. PSU is playing for what? Doesn’t look like even for pride. Poly should be able to pass against the Vikes and maybe even run. Smart Guys from CA – 27 – PSU - 10


CATS @ UNC – Less said the better – All four of the last games have worry written all over them even though should not be the case. Cheeks and the Bears passing offense is scary; #1 in the conference; as is their defense #1 against the pass. In an interesting set of stats, UNC’s rushing offense and rushing defense are both last in the conference. Passing #1; rushing dead last. Sure, seems like we should be able to run all over them and get some stops in the 50/50 ball in the air game. CATS 44 – Small Bears - 20


GO CATS!!

[nanacat]

Well this one didn't age well, but your analysis was spot on. Then they play the game and anything can happen.

Idaho @ NAU – Seems like this should be a no brainer for NAU – playing well, at the SkyDome; Idaho failing but Woods is back for Idaho and NAU has looked up and down all season. But NAU knows this is a playoff game - NAU 27 – Idaho - 20

I thought Brian Wright might do more with NAU, but things can take time. When I went to bed Idaho was rolling and it seemed like NAU was done but evidently they came back. Probably a fun 2nd half to watch.

[Montanabob]

Well this one didn't age well, but your analysis was spot on. Then they play the game and anything can happen.

Idaho @ NAU – Seems like this should be a no brainer for NAU – playing well, at the SkyDome; Idaho failing but Woods is back for Idaho and NAU has looked up and down all season. But NAU knows this is a playoff game - NAU 27 – Idaho - 20

I thought Brian Wright might do more with NAU, but things can take time. When I went to bed Idaho was rolling and it seemed like NAU was done but evidently they came back. Probably a fun 2nd half to watch.

idaho and nau win out. neither make the bubble.....

[onceacat]

First time watching Tarleton this season. But they don’t look remotely like a Top 10 team.

[Montanabob]

First time watching Tarleton this season. But they don’t look remotely like a Top 10 team.

hahahha

[onceacat]

I don't think anyone saw this week coming. And, let's be clear, theres a lot that could happen to mix things up more.

But as of right now, I think you can pencil in the winner of the Brawl at #2 and the loser at #4 (to avoid a rematch less than a month later).

The #3 spot is totally up in the air. UND? CAA champ? Tarleton? Tennessee Tech?

Gonna be interesting.

[Prodigal Cat]

Still long ways to go but with the chaos today it opens the door for the top 8 to get weird. Now teams like Davis, UND, and holy crap SDSU have work to do to get a top eight. Teams like Tenn Tech, Monmouth, Lehigh had their doors open.

[tdub]

I don't think anyone saw this week coming. And, let's be clear, theres a lot that could happen to mix things up more.

But as of right now, I think you can pencil in the winner of the Brawl at #2 and the loser at #4 (to avoid a rematch less than a month later).

The #3 spot is totally up in the air. UND? CAA champ? Tarleton? Tennessee Tech?

Gonna be interesting.

In my opinion, very little chance Tarleton remains top 4. Today’s game was the only ranked team they’ve played this year. Zero then-ranked wins. 0-1 vs. top 25 as of now. Abilene Christian now has tie breaker to win the conference. So Tarleton very well might not even get their own autobid. Which only effects conferences like the Big Sky, as Tarleton would get an at large that ACU probably wouldn’t get.

[Catsrgrood]

I don't think anyone saw this week coming. And, let's be clear, theres a lot that could happen to mix things up more.

But as of right now, I think you can pencil in the winner of the Brawl at #2 and the loser at #4 (to avoid a rematch less than a month later).

The #3 spot is totally up in the air. UND? CAA champ? Tarleton? Tennessee Tech?

Gonna be interesting.

I think UND may have blown their shot today at that.

Who knows though, a win against SDSU and NDSU would still be big for them.

[catapult]

Win out and #2 seed is a lock for the Cats! We will be the #1 seed if NDSU stumbles next week @ UND in the “Dome of Horror”!

[Catprint]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

[Montanabob]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

idaho's losses were due to no 1st string qb... they were 3 or 4 in BSC.

[onceacat]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

MSUs 'ranked loss' was to the unanimous #2 team in the country. In double OT. NAU will likely make the playoffs (last 3 games against teams with a total 9-18 record). Committee is going to like that NAUs losses are to Davis, MSU, and Arizona State. And, let's face it, Idaho is probably better than any non-BSC/MVFC team not named Tarleton. (And maybe better than UTT)

Sac probably makes the playoffs if they win out. 2 FBS losses + MSU & UM with a win over Davis? That's a playoff resume for sure.

So Cats will finish the season with wins over 2 or 3 playoff teams plus the close loss to #2 at the time & a Top 5 FBS team.

Tarleton will have the win over Army...and wins against 2 teams with winning records (West Georgia and Austin Peay). Zero wins against the playoff field. Entirely possible that Tarleton ends up without a single game against the playoff field.

These are not similar resumes.

Lehigh & Tenn Tech have zero games against the playoff field. Monmouth has one.

One loss teams in the Patriot or SoCon or Southland that don't get their autobid regularly miss the playoffs.

Undefeated or 1 loss teams from the smaller conferences will crack the Top 8, but no way do they crack the Top 4 this late in the season.

[onceacat]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

idaho's losses were due to no 1st string qb... they were 3 or 4 in BSC.

Idaho likely thumps Tarleton state at home. Close game if it's in Texas. Thats not to say that Tarleton is bad or anything, just that they are a mid FCS playoff team.

[MSU01]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

The committee is savvy enough to also consider when MSU played SDSU, right? That's a completely different team right now than the one that came to Bozeman in early September.

[91catAlum]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

The committee is savvy enough to also consider when MSU played SDSU, right? That's a completely different team right now than the one that came to Bozeman in early September.

I would think so. They were savvy enough to put the 2-loss Cats ahead of the unbeaten griz in their rankings a couple weeks ago.

[coloradocat]

Fully agree it comes down to the Brawl. I think my analysis was spot on in terms of Tarleton and SDSU needing to lose. It was a shocker that NAU lost and that is not great for the Cats. That will likely drop NAU out of the polls and remove our only "Ranked win". Everyone wants to point out Tarleton has no ranked wins and now a ranked loss. That is the same resume as the Cats. I don't happen to think Tarleton is a horrible team. They are going to get a Top 8 seed if they win out. SDSU, on the other hand, looks adrift. They easily could lose one or two more. Again, that is not great for the Cats resume because a "quality loss" to the #2 team is way more impressive committee than a loss to only a Top 15 team. Yes, it was at the beginning of the season but it will still matter. Where this all will make a difference is if Cats lose the Brawl in a close game. Getting #3 or #4 seed is far from certain as we might have only 1 ranked win (UC Davis) and 2 ranked losses (#2 Gris and #10 SDSU(?)) In addition, it will be interesting how the committee rewards a 11-1 Tennessee Tech (they play FBS Kentucky in 2nd to last game) and a 12-0 Lehigh. Both have terrible SOS's but they are already in the Top 10. Plus Monmouth and Mercer are likely to be 1-FCS Loss teams. This all makes a loss in The Brawl much more interesting.

The committee is savvy enough to also consider when MSU played SDSU, right? That's a completely different team right now than the one that came to Bozeman in early September.

Definitely. They also understand that the only team that has any shot of preventing the Cat-griz winner from making it to Nashville (other than the loser in a rematch) is SDSU with a healthy Mason.