IF we had played Ft. Lewis High...?

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:03 pm

I've been discussing this with Cat & Griz customers/friends of mine this week and I've come up with an interesting twist on the playoffs and the "vagaries" of the selection committee.

What if the Bobcats had played & beaten a team like Ft. Lewis High instead of losing to Cal Poly? Had this happened, I believe both State of Montana teams would be in the playoffs or both would be out right now, which IMO would be preferable to the Griz being in & us being out.

Here are my thoughts:

The Cats and Griz would have ended with identical 8-3 records, each with a DI loss and a DII win. The Big Sky results would have been the same, with Eastern receiving the autobid.

Now, given this, I believe the only options available to the committee would have been to offer at-large bids to BOTH the Cats & the Griz or to reject them both. There's no way they could've offered a bid to the Griz and not the Cats, right? Even with their greed, there's simply no way they could've justified taking the Griz and not the Cats. Likewise, it's highly doubtful to me that they'd take the Cats and not the Griz, although the argument for that would've been much stronger, IMO, because of last Saturday's trouncing.

So, IMO, they would've done 1 of 2 things; 1) either reject Lafayette and award the Cats AND the Griz spots, or 2) reject the Cats AND the Griz, keep Lafayette, and award the final spot to Youngstown.

While playing a DII wouldn't obviously have guaranteed us a playoff berth at this point (IMO the committee would have taken option 2), it would have been better that the Griz didn't make it either so we wouldn't have to listen to their yammering "yeah-buts...." following their dismal performance last Saturday.

Or do some of you think they really would have taken the Cats & left the Griz out?

All I'm getting at is that if the playoffs have now become the "bar" for this program, shouldn't our scheduling be done in a manner to MAXIMIZE our ability to clear that bar?

Bozgriz · Post by **Bozgriz** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:10 pm

I believe if you had not played Cal Poly, or if you had won, you would be playing football this weekend...

And your history dictated that MSU traditionally does play a D-II school. Humboldt State, Central Washington, Adams College, etc...

Not sure why the change...

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:12 pm

Boz, do you think the Griz would be playing this weekend also, given that scenario?

grizbeer · Post by **grizbeer** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:17 pm

I think they both would be in - bumping Lafayette would be the most logical, but Cal Poly might have lost their bid, or Nichols State with both the Griz and Cats in.

Bozgriz · Post by **Bozgriz** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:27 pm

El_Gato wrote:Boz, do you think the Griz would be playing this weekend also, given that scenario?

Yes, I do. the Cats have improved their attendance to the point where it makes financial sense to include them with a home game. My guess would be the Cats hosting Cal Poly and the Griz hosting Nichols State with Lafayette (and these guys suck-watched them on CSTV Saturday night vs Lehigh) out...

Cat Pride · Post by **Cat Pride** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 4:56 pm

This is all fine and dandy, but how can you pick and chose which game you lose?

What I dont like about this scenario is that we've played CP for how many years in a row now. If we were to alter the schedule to play Fort Lewis, it probably would have meant dropping Stephen F. or NDSU - not Cal Poly.

Besides that, losing the CP game is not what cost this team a playoff spot. Losing to Portland State is mainly what cost us a playoff spot. Griz beat PSU, we lost to them, Griz got in, Cats were left out. I dont think we could have replaced PSU with Fort Lewis.

And in the end, had the Cats beaten EWU, this again would be a moot point. I am not in favor of dropping good I-AA teams in favor of lower division teams. I do favor dropping the money game though and add more I-AA teams.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:04 pm

The other option we could try is play 7 home games. Some programs do that. Boise State did for years. It gets a little expensive though paying all those teams to come to Bozeman to play us.

twentythreeOh4 · Post by **twentythreeOh4** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:09 pm

El_Gato wrote: All I'm getting at is that if the playoffs have now become the "bar" for this program, shouldn't our scheduling be done in a manner to MAXIMIZE our ability to clear that bar?

UM 2005 non-conference schedule
Ft Lewis
SDSU
Cal-Poly
@ D-I

MSU 2004 non-conference schedule
Adams St. (same conference as Ft. Lewis).
SDSU
Cal-Poly
@D-I

Looks to me like the bar UM cleared is VERY similiar to the bar MSU had last year...

If MSU had gone 8-3 with something like the 2004 schedule they would have gotten an at-large berth along with UM due to the strength of the Big Sky conference. In the last decade I can only recall one time an 8-3 Big Sky team did not make the playoffs -- ISU in 2003. Of course, they didn't help themselves with their regular NAIA game.

Check out the final GPI ratings: http://www.i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=74448

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:47 pm

That final GPI tells me 2 things for certain:

1) Youngstown got BIGTIME SCREWED.
2) The Patriot conference DOES NOT DESERVE an autobid.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:52 pm

El_Gato wrote:That final GPI tells me 2 things for certain:

1) Youngstown got BIGTIME SCREWED.
2) The Patriot conference DOES NOT DESERVE an autobid.

They say the same thing about the Big Sky for basketball. Autobids make the world go 'round.

I agree-Youngstown got hosed.

Ponycat · Post by **Ponycat** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 5:53 pm

El_Gato wrote:That final GPI tells me 2 things for certain:

1) Youngstown got BIGTIME SCREWED.
2) The Patriot conference DOES NOT DESERVE an autobid.

WOW I agree. If the Great West remains a conference they deserve an Auto bid over the Patriot.

I remember Colgate made a run about 3-4 years ago. Has anyone else ever in made a run in the playoffs from the Patriot.

BR GRIZ · Post by **BR GRIZ** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:00 pm

[quote="twentythreeOh4

UM 2005 non-conference schedule
Ft Lewis
SDSU
Cal-Poly
@ D-I

MSU 2004 non-conference schedule
Adams St. (same conference as Ft. Lewis).
SDSU
Cal-Poly
@D-I

Looks to me like the bar UM cleared is VERY similiar to the bar MSU had last year...

If MSU had gone 8-3 with something like the 2004 schedule they would have gotten an at-large berth along with UM due to the strength of the Big Sky conference. In the last decade I can only recall one time an 8-3 Big Sky team did not make the playoffs -- ISU in 2003. Of course, they didn't help themselves with their regular NAIA game.

Check out the final GPI ratings: http://www.i-aa.org/article.asp?articleid=74448[/quote]

I know this was the UM 2005 non-conference schedule. Is this accurate for the MSU 2004 non-conference schedule? If so, it appears Bobcatnation has a lot of Bandwagon fans who have been critcizing (I am assuming unknowingly) the Grizzlies for having a "soft" 2005 schedule when it is, both conference and non-conference, essentially identical to the Cat 2004 schedule. If the criticism was knowingly made, on what basis was it made?

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:06 pm

I would think it's extremely clear, BR; it's just the typical Bobcat/Grizzly rhetoric.

This season, we played an all DI schedule for the first time since 2001 so obviously some Cat fans are going to go after the Griz for a "soft" schedule. It obviously didn't hurt them this year but had they dropped any 1 other game, it would have contributed to them not making the playoffs.

BR GRIZ · Post by **BR GRIZ** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:21 pm

Thanks EG. I understand the rhetoric, but twentythree's post really took me by surprise. I liked Hogan's wanting to only scheduling D1 competition, and I dislike the Griz scheduling D2 home games to pay off the debt. For my 2 cents worth schedule one lower D1, but never schedule anything lower.

BWahlberg · Post by **BWahlberg** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:26 pm

Why not instead of going after the Griz for a "soft" schedule, go after your own AD for booking a year with a D2 or for booking a more difficult schedule?

Just a thought...

catbooster · Post by **catbooster** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:42 pm

If only we had a bunch of non-scholarship I-AA teams to choose from like they do in East/South. Is San Diego the closest non-schol I-AA?

I'm uncomfortable with DII because they don't count for your 7 wins according to the NCAA guidelines, even though many of them are probably better than many of the non-scholarship I-AA's. As someone pointed out above, we can't pick our losses, so if we stumble on another team, we're screwed. What makes you so confident that the DI team displaced by a DII is the one game we would have lost?

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 6:59 pm

Had we won one more game, both the Cats and the griz would be hosting this weekend. Youngstown played a pretty weak schedule, which is why they were left out, but when you compare them to Lafayette, they got hosed. I thought some consideration would be given to a program that travels well, plays in a tough conference, and has 4 NC's to its credit - but apparently Lafayette has some pretty damn good representatives on the selection committee.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 8:30 pm

I think the whole reason Lafayette got in over YSU is because the Leopards beat Richmond a playoff team while Youngstown beat nobody in the playoffs.

Potomac Griz · Post by **Potomac Griz** » Wed Nov 23, 2005 10:01 pm

Youngstown State did get screwed it looks like... Really I'd have to say the Cats kind of got screwed too. Even though it was pretty much common knowledge even with a win over the Griz the Cats wouldn't get in, they did play in the best conference in 1-AA this year. Along with that, the teams in the Big Sky did a good job of beating eachother up over the season (EWU takes out the Cats & Griz, but loses to WSU (Who was much better than last year) and loses to ISU, who was in the top 25 for a while this season. The Griz go and lose to EWU, and MSU, both top 20 teams. MSU goes and loses to PSU and EWU, PSU was in the top 25 for a while, and of course EWU was up in the top 20.

Unfortunately, with the Big Sky being so strong this year, it meant that the top three teams took 2 losses in conference. That along with the tough schedule played by the Cats in the non conference (Cal Poly, Ok State, and NDSU), really hurt their chances of getting into the playoffs. Anyway...had the Cats played a easy Division 2 team instead of Cal Poly or Ok State, I think they would probably be in the playoffs..or have a damn good chance of being in the playoffs. I still don't think any top 1-AA program should play Division 2 schools though... The cats shouldn't, and the Griz shouldn't... And honestly, I think the Cats and Griz should just stick with playing 1-AA schools, and not 1-A schools that often either, since all that does (if its against a good 1-A school) is almost guarantee a loss, which may come back to haunt them later.

IF we had played Ft. Lewis High...?

IF we had played Ft. Lewis High...?

Re: IF we had played Ft. Lewis High...?

Re: IF we had played Ft. Lewis High...?