Is there still a chance at a playoff?

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:13 am

Kramer's prediction.

"None," MSU coach Mike Kramer said Tuesday when asked to evaluate his team's postseason chances.

"N-U-N, none. I need a Catholic nun to pray for us because that's the only chance."

"Put your gear away, get on the recruiting trail, say goodbye to a bunch of seniors and move on," Kramer said.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/ar ... 04hink.txt

DriftCat · Post by **DriftCat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:25 am

I think that Kramer is setting this game up for the seniors as their last game as Bobcats (which it very well may be) to get them motivated to come out and hold nothing back. We do have a very small chance at the playoffs with a CONVINCING win and Kramer knows that we have to take care of business on Saturday to have any hope for the playoffs.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:42 am

DaGriz wrote:Kramer's prediction.

"None," MSU coach Mike Kramer said Tuesday when asked to evaluate his team's postseason chances.

"N-U-N, none. I need a Catholic nun to pray for us because that's the only chance."

"Put your gear away, get on the recruiting trail, say goodbye to a bunch of seniors and move on," Kramer said.

http://www.bozemandailychronicle.com/ar ... 04hink.txt

Well according to most of these threads Kramer is wrong all the time...

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 9:58 am

Do the Cats have a chance to get into the playoffs with a win? Yes they do, but let us look at the scenarios.

Best guess by many lists these teams as the 16 if all favorites win:

League champs
Hampton (MEAC champ)
No Iowa (Gateway champ)
New Hampshire (A10 champ)
Appalachain St (Socon champ)
Montana (Big Sky champ)
Nicholls St (SLC champ)
Lehigh (Patriot champ)
OVC Champ

ATLARGE
UMass
Richmond
So. Illinois
Youngstown
Texas St
Cal Poly
GSU
Furman

So if the Cats win it would push EWU into the playoffs and someone out.
In this position, EWU would push the Cats down the list of bubble teams 1 spot further. The Cats would probably be behind 1) the team knocked out by EWU, 2) Coastal Carolina, 3) and as much as I hate to say it, probably a 9-2 South Carolina St team. This means that the Cats need at least 4 teams to lose and fall out of contention, either, Nicholls, Richmond, So. Illinois, Texas St. Cal Poly, and UMass.

The scenarios here can get crazy. If Texas St. wins and McNeese beats Nicholls, does this mean McNeese would have a shot over MSU with a 6-3 record in the eyes of the committee. Second in the league, a little leeway because of the natural disaster that cost them two games. Does Illinois St at 7-4 look more attractive with big wins over So Illinois and No Iowa.
If Lehigh loses, do they look better at 8-3 and a second place finish in the Patriot than a 7-4 record. If E. Illinois does not receive the OVC bid, does hteir 8-3 record look better than MSU. If Cal Poly loses, do they consider MSU even though they lost to Poly. The Cats need help, at least probably 4 bubble teams to lose, but then that even throws more teams onto the bubble. The Cats have a chance, but realistically, not a very good one at all.

tetoncat · Post by **tetoncat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:44 pm

Griz in da house.

So Cal Poly gets in for beating us (with one less loss) but the Griz also get in (with one less loss) after losing to us. Makes no sense to me.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 1:59 pm

I have been reading about this topic all week, and thought I would provide some date for you all to view, so you all can make more educated posts regarding the subject, instead of guessing or otherwise making speculative posts without any knowledge of the subject. 6 things to keep in mind while reading.

1. Peter Fields is not on the selection committee, and if he were, he would have to be out of the room when the the committee discussed the cats.

2. 1-A losses do count.

3. Teams playing all division 1 schedules may be given more consideration when comparing to teams who did not play all division 1 schedules.

4. Teams without 7 division 1 wins are in serious jeopardy of not be selected on an at large basis.

5. There is no limit on number of teams that can be selected from any given conference.

6. 4 Losses is not a barometer any more, it used to be, but not now. The committee uses the 7 div. 1 wins.

Below is a list of the current GPI ratings(a strong indicator of at large selections. You can go to I-AA.org and review the past 3 years, end of season rankings, and see that the playoff committee has chosen the 8 highest remaining GPI teams once the auto bids have been filled, except two annomallies(NW St. last year over Cal Poly, and Bethune Cookman the year before, even though they were way low on the GPI list.)

1. Montana 8-2
2. New Hampshire 9-1
3. App. St. 7-3
4. Texas St. 8-2
5. Cal Poly 7-3
6. Ga. Southern 8-3
7. N. Iowa 7-3
7. Umass 7-3
9. Furman 8-2
10. NDSU 7-3(Not playoff eligible)
11. Hampton 10-0
12. S. Illinois 7-3
13. Youngstown 8-3
14. E. Washington 7-3
15. Ill. St. 7-4
16. Brown 8-1(Not playoff eligible)
17 Richmond 7-3
18. Portland St. 6-5(not playoff eligible, only 6 d1 wins)
19. MSU 6-4
21. Nicholls St. 5-3
22. Coastal Carolina 9-1
26. SC. State 8-2

You can see from the above list that the Cats are already 16th in GPI ranking when you eliminate the 3 teams not eligible. Factor in a win versus the #1 GPI Griz, and based on how other teams have moved up this year after beating the #1 GPI team and the Cats can expect to move up anywhere from 6 to 8 spots.(assuming a couple of losses from above them as well.)

IF(assuming a cat win):
Nicholls St. loses to McNeese on Saturday, the S'land will be a one bid conference- Texas St.(the second biggest game for the Cats in my opinion, next to our game.)

The Auto bids are projected to be(and these are all mostly decided, save a couple)
A-10 New Hampshire
Big Sky - E. Washington
Gateway - No Iowa
Patriot - Lehigh(they need one win at home this weekend)
MEAC - Hampton
OVC - E. Illinois(need to win this weekend, but it is a 1 bid conf. anyway)
Southland - Texas St.
Southern - App. St.

Now refer to the above GPI rankings, after the auto's are removed that leaves the Cats in 10th. Plus with a win over the Griz, the Cats will pass 7-4 Ill. St. so really they are 9th. So if 1 of the following teams lose the Cats are in the magical 8 spot(in my opinion).
Umass
So. Illinois
Richmond.

I wouldn't feel safe at this spot however, becasue I don't know what the committee would do with a 10-1 Coastal Carolina, or a 9-2 SC. State, even though past history has indicated they have not been selected(refer to I-AA.org and look at past years GPI rankings and compare them with who made the field.)

I know this is long, but for review, we need only 2 losses at this point from a group of 4 teams.

Now factor in loss by Cal Poly, or more losses than 1 by the above mentioned teams, and you can see that YES the Cats have a chance(not a great one, but atleast it is a legitimate chance. Plus how does the committee view the Cats at 7-4(all div 1 sched.) versus Youngstown St. who is 8-3 with a DII win when we will virually have the same GPI? Again if you refer to I-AA.org you will see a precedent was set last year where they took a team with a worse overall record in NW St. over Cal Poly.

One last point, even if Nicholls does win, it Texas St. were to lose, they would only have 6 Div. 1 wins as they played 2 DII schools this year, and at 8-3, they would be in serious jeopardy of being left at home.

All of this rambling points out that there is a lot of scenarios and statistical data that support the Cat/Griz game is for more than just pride.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:14 pm

old wise one wrote:I have been reading about this topic all week, and thought I would provide some date for you all to view, so you all can make more educated posts regarding the subject, instead of guessing or otherwise making speculative posts without any knowledge of the subject. 6 things to keep in mind while reading.

1. Peter Fields is not on the selection committee, and if he were, he would have to be out of the room when the the committee discussed the cats.

2. 1-A losses do count.

3. Teams playing all division 1 schedules may be given more consideration when comparing to teams who did not play all division 1 schedules.

4. Teams without 7 division 1 wins are in serious jeopardy of not be selected on an at large basis.

5. There is no limit on number of teams that can be selected from any given conference.

6. 4 Losses is not a barometer any more, it used to be, but not now. The committee uses the 7 div. 1 wins.

Below is a list of the current GPI ratings(a strong indicator of at large selections. You can go to I-AA.org and review the past 3 years, end of season rankings, and see that the playoff committee has chosen the 8 highest remaining GPI teams once the auto bids have been filled, except two annomallies(NW St. last year over Cal Poly, and Bethune Cookman the year before, even though they were way low on the GPI list.)

1. Montana 8-2
2. New Hampshire 9-1
3. App. St. 7-3
4. Texas St. 8-2
5. Cal Poly 7-3
6. Ga. Southern 8-3
7. N. Iowa 7-3
7. Umass 7-3
9. Furman 8-2
10. NDSU 7-3(Not playoff eligible)
11. Hampton 10-0
12. S. Illinois 7-3
13. Youngstown 8-3
14. E. Washington 7-3
15. Ill. St. 7-4
16. Brown 8-1(Not playoff eligible)
17 Richmond 7-3
18. Portland St. 6-5(not playoff eligible, only 6 d1 wins)
19. MSU 6-4
21. Nicholls St. 5-3
22. Coastal Carolina 9-1
26. SC. State 8-2

You can see from the above list that the Cats are already 16th in GPI ranking when you eliminate the 3 teams not eligible. Factor in a win versus the #1 GPI Griz, and based on how other teams have moved up this year after beating the #1 GPI team and the Cats can expect to move up anywhere from 6 to 8 spots.(assuming a couple of losses from above them as well.)

IF(assuming a cat win):
Nicholls St. loses to McNeese on Saturday, the S'land will be a one bid conference- Texas St.(the second biggest game for the Cats in my opinion, next to our game.)

The Auto bids are projected to be(and these are all mostly decided, save a couple)
A-10 New Hampshire
Big Sky - E. Washington
Gateway - No Iowa
Patriot - Lehigh(they need one win at home this weekend)
MEAC - Hampton
OVC - E. Illinois(need to win this weekend, but it is a 1 bid conf. anyway)
Southland - Texas St.
Southern - App. St.

Now refer to the above GPI rankings, after the auto's are removed that leaves the Cats in 10th. Plus with a win over the Griz, the Cats will pass 7-4 Ill. St. so really they are 9th. So if 1 of the following teams lose the Cats are in the magical 8 spot(in my opinion).
Umass
So. Illinois
Richmond.

I wouldn't feel safe at this spot however, becasue I don't know what the committee would do with a 10-1 Coastal Carolina, or a 9-2 SC. State, even though past history has indicated they have not been selected(refer to I-AA.org and look at past years GPI rankings and compare them with who made the field.)

I know this is long, but for review, we need only 2 losses at this point from a group of 4 teams.

Now factor in loss by Cal Poly, or more losses than 1 by the above mentioned teams, and you can see that YES the Cats have a chance(not a great one, but atleast it is a legitimate chance. Plus how does the committee view the Cats at 7-4(all div 1 sched.) versus Youngstown St. who is 8-3 with a DII win when we will virually have the same GPI? Again if you refer to I-AA.org you will see a precedent was set last year where they took a team with a worse overall record in NW St. over Cal Poly.

One last point, even if Nicholls does win, it Texas St. were to lose, they would only have 6 Div. 1 wins as they played 2 DII schools this year, and at 8-3, they would be in serious jeopardy of being left at home.

All of this rambling points out that there is a lot of scenarios and statistical data that support the Cat/Griz game is for more than just pride.

Old Wise One,
Thanks for the evaluation. It's basically the same that I said in my analysis on Monday. Only you used the proper information as I was wrong on the D-IA losses and on Fields being on the selection committee.

Hello Kitty · Post by **Hello Kitty** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:15 pm

old wise one wrote:I have been reading about this topic all week, and thought I would provide some date for you all to view, so you all can make more educated posts regarding the subject, instead of guessing or otherwise making speculative posts without any knowledge of the subject. 6 things to keep in mind while reading.

1. Peter Fields is not on the selection committee, and if he were, he would have to be out of the room when the the committee discussed the cats.

2. 1-A losses do count.

3. Teams playing all division 1 schedules may be given more consideration when comparing to teams who did not play all division 1 schedules.

4. Teams without 7 division 1 wins are in serious jeopardy of not be selected on an at large basis.

5. There is no limit on number of teams that can be selected from any given conference.

6. 4 Losses is not a barometer any more, it used to be, but not now. The committee uses the 7 div. 1 wins.

Below is a list of the current GPI ratings(a strong indicator of at large selections. You can go to I-AA.org and review the past 3 years, end of season rankings, and see that the playoff committee has chosen the 8 highest remaining GPI teams once the auto bids have been filled, except two annomallies(NW St. last year over Cal Poly, and Bethune Cookman the year before, even though they were way low on the GPI list.)

1. Montana 8-2
2. New Hampshire 9-1
3. App. St. 7-3
4. Texas St. 8-2
5. Cal Poly 7-3
6. Ga. Southern 8-3
7. N. Iowa 7-3
7. Umass 7-3
9. Furman 8-2
10. NDSU 7-3(Not playoff eligible)
11. Hampton 10-0
12. S. Illinois 7-3
13. Youngstown 8-3
14. E. Washington 7-3
15. Ill. St. 7-4
16. Brown 8-1(Not playoff eligible)
17 Richmond 7-3
18. Portland St. 6-5(not playoff eligible, only 6 d1 wins)
19. MSU 6-4
21. Nicholls St. 5-3
22. Coastal Carolina 9-1
26. SC. State 8-2

You can see from the above list that the Cats are already 16th in GPI ranking when you eliminate the 3 teams not eligible. Factor in a win versus the #1 GPI Griz, and based on how other teams have moved up this year after beating the #1 GPI team and the Cats can expect to move up anywhere from 6 to 8 spots.(assuming a couple of losses from above them as well.)

IF(assuming a cat win):
Nicholls St. loses to McNeese on Saturday, the S'land will be a one bid conference- Texas St.(the second biggest game for the Cats in my opinion, next to our game.)

The Auto bids are projected to be(and these are all mostly decided, save a couple)
A-10 New Hampshire
Big Sky - E. Washington
Gateway - No Iowa
Patriot - Lehigh(they need one win at home this weekend)
MEAC - Hampton
OVC - E. Illinois(need to win this weekend, but it is a 1 bid conf. anyway)
Southland - Texas St.
Southern - App. St.

Now refer to the above GPI rankings, after the auto's are removed that leaves the Cats in 10th. Plus with a win over the Griz, the Cats will pass 7-4 Ill. St. so really they are 9th. So if 1 of the following teams lose the Cats are in the magical 8 spot(in my opinion).
Umass
So. Illinois
Richmond.

I wouldn't feel safe at this spot however, becasue I don't know what the committee would do with a 10-1 Coastal Carolina, or a 9-2 SC. State, even though past history has indicated they have not been selected(refer to I-AA.org and look at past years GPI rankings and compare them with who made the field.)

I know this is long, but for review, we need only 2 losses at this point from a group of 4 teams.

Now factor in loss by Cal Poly, or more losses than 1 by the above mentioned teams, and you can see that YES the Cats have a chance(not a great one, but atleast it is a legitimate chance. Plus how does the committee view the Cats at 7-4(all div 1 sched.) versus Youngstown St. who is 8-3 with a DII win when we will virually have the same GPI? Again if you refer to I-AA.org you will see a precedent was set last year where they took a team with a worse overall record in NW St. over Cal Poly.

One last point, even if Nicholls does win, it Texas St. were to lose, they would only have 6 Div. 1 wins as they played 2 DII schools this year, and at 8-3, they would be in serious jeopardy of being left at home.

All of this rambling points out that there is a lot of scenarios and statistical data that support the Cat/Griz game is for more than just pride.

WOW!
You are wise!!!!!
Thank you for going to all that work to spell it out explictly to all.
I for one have have hope! But hey, I'm a bobcat. Its what we do!
Right Cardiac?

Thanks again! Great post!

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:22 pm

Bottom line remains the same:

Beat the Griz & wait 'til Sunday.

KillintheGriz · Post by **KillintheGriz** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:23 pm

Old Wise One:
That is very nice work. Grant Indicator says the Cats will be in the play-offs as well so Griz fans will be disappointed this weekend.

You might want to e-mail this to Kramer to let his kids know they need to play their hearts out this weekend as they should be in with a win.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:29 pm

Teton, in my analysis, Cal-Poly at 7-4 would probably go before MSU at 7-4. UM would probably go at 8-3 before MSU at 7-4. Cat fans can hope all they want, but a win over UM will not get them into the playoffs without 3 to 5 other bubble teams losing also. Teton, to you and other Cat fans, UM will go to the playoffs whether they win or lose this week, and the argument, we beat them will not matter. UM will be 8-3, or 7-2 without Fort Lewis and Oregon. The Cats would be 7-4, or 7-3 without OSU. As unfair as it is, Montana's history and ability to bid will get them in with this record instead of MSU. Also, Illinois St is 7-4 with large victories against So. Illinois and No. Iowa, should they go before either of these schools?

KillintheGriz · Post by **KillintheGriz** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:45 pm

grizindahouse wrote:Teton, in my analysis, Cal-Poly at 7-4 would probably go before MSU at 7-4. UM would probably go at 8-3 before MSU at 7-4. Cat fans can hope all they want, but a win over UM will not get them into the playoffs without 3 to 5 other bubble teams losing also. Teton, to you and other Cat fans, UM will go to the playoffs whether they win or lose this week, and the argument, we beat them will not matter. UM will be 8-3, or 7-2 without Fort Lewis and Oregon. The Cats would be 7-4, or 7-3 without OSU. As unfair as it is, Montana's history and ability to bid will get them in with this record instead of MSU. Also, Illinois St is 7-4 with large victories against So. Illinois and No. Iowa, should they go before either of these schools?

grizindahouse: You're a Griz fan--it's like playing 2 D-II schools--it means your opinion does not mean much to us Bobcats. We are used to being on the bubble.

With EWU, Griz and Cats in the postseason, I can't imagine all would be in the same bracket. It's possible for Cat-Griz #2 this year.

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:13 pm

I know that the rules have been changed to state that 7 D-1 wins will get a team considered and the 4 loss rule is no longer around. But I still think the committee will have a difficult time selecting a 4 loss team over a 3 loss team. The Cats will not get in ahead of Coastal Carolina or South Carolina St. There are just to many teams out there with less than 4 losses for the Cats to get in without probably 4 of the current bubble teams with 3 losses losing this weekend.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:41 pm

I know that the rules have been changed to state that 7 D-1 wins will get a team considered and the 4 loss rule is no longer around. But I still think the committee will have a difficult time selecting a 4 loss team over a 3 loss team. The Cats will not get in ahead of Coastal Carolina or South Carolina St. There are just to many teams out there with less than 4 losses for the Cats to get in without probably 4 of the current bubble teams with 3 losses losing this weekend.

grizindahouse Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2005 2:29 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Teton, in my analysis, Cal-Poly at 7-4 would probably go before MSU at 7-4. UM would probably go at 8-3 before MSU at 7-4. Cat fans can hope all they want, but a win over UM will not get them into the playoffs without 3 to 5 other bubble teams losing also. Teton, to you and other Cat fans, UM will go to the playoffs whether they win or lose this week, and the argument, we beat them will not matter. UM will be 8-3, or 7-2 without Fort Lewis and Oregon. The Cats would be 7-4, or 7-3 without OSU. As unfair as it is, Montana's history and ability to bid will get them in with this record instead of MSU. Also, Illinois St is 7-4 with large victories against So. Illinois and No. Iowa, should they go before either of these schools?

Grizindahouse,

Do some research. I have provided all the websites and tools for you to do so. 10-1 Coastal was left home last year. As well as 9-2 SC State. And no, Ill. St. at 7-4 does not get in ahead of a 7-4 MSU squad. Our GPI will be higher with a win over the Griz. To sit here and speculate like you are doing based on your opinion is foolish. Granted, I am doing a little bit of speculative work as well, but mine are based on historical data. We do need some help, but the season is not lost, like the majority of Cat fans assumed last Sunday, Kramer included.[/quote]

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:57 pm

Top 25
Rank. Team (Total)
1. Montana (2.11)
2. New Hampshire (2.44)
3. Appalachian St (2.78)
4. Texas St (4.11)
5. Cal Poly (8.44)
6. Ga Southern (8.89)
7T. N Iowa (9.89)
7T. Massachusetts (9.89)
9. Furman (10.11)
10. N Dakota St (11.78)
11. Hampton (13.67)
12. S Illinois (14.22)
13. Youngstown St (14.56)
14. E Washington (15.00)
15. Illinois St (15.11)
16. Brown (16.22)
17. Richmond (16.33)
18. Portland St (17.67)
19. Montana St (19.33)
20. UC Davis (19.56)
21. Nicholls St (19.89)
22. Coastal Car (21.11)
23. Lehigh (22.56)
24. James Madison (22.78)
25. W Kentucky (24.78)

Eastern Illinois

conference champs are Italic, nonplayoff eligible are bold

Even if the Cats win, they would have to jump at least two of these in the GPI to have one of the top at-large GPI's. Montana, Texas St. Cal-Poly, GSU, UMass, Furman, So. Illinios, Youngstown, Illinois St, and Richmond
You look at this, and even if the Cats beat Montana, there is a huge GPI difference between MSU and Illinois St., over 4 points, and I am not sure that you can get past them. And the GPI, even though very close on the at-large selections, sometimes someone is chosen outside the obvious 8 next best GPI's. This may put teams such as Coastal Carolina, South Carolina St, and even McNeese with a washed out 6-3 record if the defeat Nicholls. All I am saying is that the Cats have a difinate uphill battle. Do they have a chance, yes, but it is a very longshot at best.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:06 pm

grizindahouse Posted: Thu Nov 17, 2005 3:57 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Top 25
Rank. Team (Total)
1. Montana (2.11)
2. New Hampshire (2.44)
3. Appalachian St (2.7
4. Texas St (4.11)
5. Cal Poly (8.44)
6. Ga Southern (8.89)
7T. N Iowa (9.89)
7T. Massachusetts (9.89)
9. Furman (10.11)
10. N Dakota St (11.7
11. Hampton (13.67)
12. S Illinois (14.22)
13. Youngstown St (14.56)
14. E Washington (15.00)
15. Illinois St (15.11)
16. Brown (16.22)
17. Richmond (16.33)
18. Portland St (17.67)
19. Montana St (19.33)
20. UC Davis (19.56)
21. Nicholls St (19.89)
22. Coastal Car (21.11)
23. Lehigh (22.56)
24. James Madison (22.7
25. W Kentucky (24.7

Eastern Illinois

conference champs are Italic, nonplayoff eligible are bold

Even if the Cats win, they would have to jump at least two of these in the GPI to have one of the top at-large GPI's. Montana, Texas St. Cal-Poly, GSU, UMass, Furman, So. Illinios, Youngstown, Illinois St, and Richmond
You look at this, and even if the Cats beat Montana, there is a huge GPI difference between MSU and Illinois St., over 4 points, and I am not sure that you can get past them. And the GPI, even though very close on the at-large selections, sometimes someone is chosen outside the obvious 8 next best GPI's. This may put teams such as Coastal Carolina, South Carolina St, and even McNeese with a washed out 6-3 record if the defeat Nicholls. All I am saying is that the Cats have a difinate uphill battle. Do they have a chance, yes, but it is a very longshot at best.

I agree that the Cats need help. But go to I-AA.org and look at this years GPI results for the team that has beaten #1, as to how much they moved up the following week. In most cases, it was at least 10 points(not spots) With the losing team falling about 5-7 points not spots, depending on the competition, so the 4 points Ill. St. is ahead of us is minor, not to mention, if we get the help we need in NDSU beating So. Illinois, Ill. St.'s one marquee win doesn't look so good anymore as well as it will lower their GPI.

Also in your italicized list, I am assuming Texas St. wins the auto in the s'land by virtue of a nicholls loss. We need that one in a big way in my opinion.

What does a Griz loss due to your seeded hopes? I would make the argument, even with a loss you would still have enough points in the GPI to be 4th(ahead of Cal Poly) and based on sheer numbers should still get the 4th seed, but we will see soon enough.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:16 pm

Griz/house-

You are also over looking the fact that with a win the Cats would be second(by way of a tiebreaker) in the highest rated conference in the country. How do you think that compares to a 6-3 McNeese team in the 5th rated conference, or a 10-1 Coastal team in the 11th rated conference, or a 9-2 SC State team from the 9th rated conference. Not to mention the last two teams still have one game to play, and they haven't won yet?

grizindahouse · Post by **grizindahouse** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:21 pm

Wise man, a Griz lose means no seed, and probably a home game in the first round. I also think the committe would have a difficult time taking two teams from the same conference with 4 or more loses, over first or second place teams from other conferences with 3 or less loses. Also when looking at GPI, I would think that Illinois St's would get better if Southern Illilnois beats North Dakota St. NDSU would probably fall, and Illinois St win over SIU would help them.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:38 pm

Griz/house-

Read previos post. Ill St's GPI would get worse if NDSU beats So. Ill. as I stated above.

This is painful, there are some many scenarios with about 10 teams, too many to mention at this point. Let's leave it at, The Cats definitely have a chance, and that was the point of my original post. And the problem with Matt Daugherty, and most of the media, is they assume Griz win, Umass wins, Richmond wins, So. Illinois wins, Nicholls wins, Cal Poly wins, and by virtue of all of those wins the cats are out. While I do agree with that assessment, there is a lot of football left to be played and on any give saturday.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Nov 17, 2005 4:50 pm

old wise one wrote:Griz/house-

Read previos post. Ill St's GPI would get worse if NDSU beats So. Ill. as I stated above.

This is painful, there are some many scenarios with about 10 teams, too many to mention at this point. Let's leave it at, The Cats definitely have a chance, and that was the point of my original post. And the problem with Matt Daugherty, and most of the media, is they assume Griz win, Umass wins, Richmond wins, So. Illinois wins, Nicholls wins, Cal Poly wins, and by virtue of all of those wins the cats are out. While I do agree with that assessment, there is a lot of football left to be played and on any give saturday.

Particularly the Richmond/William and Mary, SIU/NDSU, Nicholls State/McNeese State games. These are all great matchups. Oh yeah, the New Hampshire/Maine game should be a good one too.