Big Sky Preview Week 9

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:21 am

Last week was my first two-miss prediction of the season. Weber shocked everyone by upending Eastern on the road (but maybe not that big of a shock), and Cal Poly fell just short to UM on the road in a more high scoring game than most anticipated. We now have 3 Big Sky teams ranked in a row, #13 EWU, #14 MSU, #15 PSU.

So my percentage took a hit last week, I'm now at 73.91%, 17 for 23. With the parity in the Sky this year, anything can happen.

Let's get to the games.

#14 Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State
- Last week Meyer was only 20/34 for 301 and 1 TD. Not a bad day for a lot of IAA QBs, but a pretty subpar day for the Payton candidate. But the day belonged to Ian Pizzaro, throwing for 292 yards on 18/37 passing for 4 TDs. The Wildcats held the explosive Eagle offense to just 421 total yards, 90 below their season average. But they made the stands when they counted, and only allowed 23 points to a team that had been scoring over 40. Neither team turned the ball over - Fosmark had 4 sacks though. While Weber was finishing off the upset, Sac St was falling to 1-3 in conference with a loss at ISU, 27-17 (I predicted 28-17). As I have said all year, the only hope for Sac is to have Mole rush for over 100. Well he was held to 24 yards on 8 carries. Not to mention they turned the ball over 6 times, 5 of them being fumbles. But at least Sac gets to play at home this week against the #14 EWU Eagles. Unfortunately this is a bad time to face the Eagles, since they will not let another upset happen. Sac gives up 352 yards per game to opponents and nearly 30 points a game. They will need to run the ball effectively to be able to win this one. Chris Hurd is completing less than 50% of his passes for less than 6 yards per catch. He has been sacked 21 times, but has only thrown 3 INTs. I look for EWU to make Hurd beat them with his arm. Since the Hornets like to throw short passes, that may make up for an ineffective run game. But if EWU jumps out ahead early, they will have to go deep, and that is where Hurd can make mistakes. Sac hasn't been able to stop anyone this year, and Ryan Cole has rushed for almost 700 yards for the Eagles. Oh, and let's not forget about Meyer/Kimble. Although Weber showed a good formula for beating the Eags, I don't think Sac has a good chance of repeating that, because Sac has only scored more than 20 2 times this year.
What to watch : If Hurd can have an effective day, much like Pizzaro last week, the Hornets might be able to put themselves in a position to win come the 4th.
- 38-24

Idaho State @ Weber State
- Both the Bengals and the Wildcats got much needed victories last week to keep them in the hunt for the Big Sky title. There are now 3 teams sitting with 2 losses, and 3 teams above them sitting with just 1 loss. Weber simply beat the Eagles last week on the road, and was perhaps the biggest victory in the Sky last week. Pizzaro continues to improve, and the Wildcats even outgained EWU in total yards. ISU won a game they should have, and exactly how they should have. Their D created turnovers, they ran for nearly 200 yards, and they didn't throw the ball hardly at all (75 passing yards). But the Wildcats match up a little better than the Hornets did. Both teams like to run the ball, with the Wildcats rushing for 179 per game and the Bengals likewise rushing for 173 per. Both teams will try to contain the run. If both teams are sucessful, the Wildcats have a big advantage with QB play, with Pizzaro under center. The Bengals started Luke Sniewski last week, who was 12/27 for 75 yards 1 TD and 2 INTs. He will have a better day after getting those first game jitters out of the way, but he better hope the running game is effective. Fortunately for him and the Bengals, Weber does not have a great run defense, giving up 145 per game on the ground. But at the same time, if ISU is held to around 140, I don't think it will be enough to stop a Weber team that suddenly finds itself scoring a decent amount every week. I think the Weber offense will be a little too much for the Bengals to overcome, and the Weber defense will play better than usual at home.
What to watch : Ron McBride has these kids believing in themselves, and it has been a long time since there was hope down in Ogden, Utah.
- 20-28

#15 Portland State @ #6 Montana
- While Montana was winning ugly last week against a good Cal Poly team, the Vikings were quietly pounding NAU into the ground. And the Vikings finally might have an answer at QB, and if so, watch out. While Berquist was having a tough time vs the Mustangs defense (17/30 155 2 TD 2 INT), Sawyer Smith was 16/21 for 244 and 5 TDs with no INTs, before getting yanked for the whole 4th quarter. Although Smith's performance isn't that impressive considering the opponent, he has played much worse against lower competition earlier in the season. In his last 2 weeks, his is 33/46 for 496 yards 7 TDs and no INTs, for a QB rating of 140.5 Teams should not underestimate Berquist, however, for he has the chance to beat you on his own, although he hasn't had to yet. Why? Lex Hilliard has been great in 2 of the 3 Berquist starts. He ran for 237 last week against a good Mustang defense. While he might not get those numbers, he will get his 100 against the PSU defense that is allowing 126 yards on the ground per game. But can the Grizzlies stop Joe Rubin? Montana is giving up 105 yards on the ground per game, but no one has been able to stop Joe Rubin this year, with the exception of UC Davis. Herein lies the great battle - Rubin vs Hilliard, two of the premier backs in IAA. The Griz know they have a good passing game with Berquist at the helm, but the Vikings seem to have also found their QB in Sawyer Smith. Both teams have suspect secondaries, but the nod goes to PSU. Both teams have good run defenses, with the nod going to UM. So when the game is this evenly matched, there is only one factor left to throw in - WAGriz. And because of that, I'll take the Griz in a lower scoring affair than some would think.
What to watch : Hilliard vs Rubin, whoever has the bigger day has a good chance of winning.
- 21-27

Northern Arizona @ #14 Montana State
- If anyone would have told me that NAU would be the weakest team in the conference 2 months ago, I would have called them a dolt. But here we are, and the Lumberjacks are 0-4 in conference and just 2-6 on the year, winning a DII game and a game against bottom dwellers Southern Utah. Murietta was sitting on the bench last week under speculation as to why - most think an injury kept him on the bench, but others think he is playing that bad. Regardless of who is under center, the Jacks are playing bad football. They are only averaging 120 on the ground and 202 through the air, but somehow manage to score 21 points per game. That is, until last week, when PSU dominated NAU in every facet of the game. The Bobcats came off a heartbreaking loss 2 weeks ago to PSU, giving up just as many points as NAU did to the Vikings. The only difference here is that MSU has an offense. Will Murietta be starting next week, when his backup, Wriston, was 15/36 for 134 and 3 INTs? MSUs strength defensively, if there is one, is pass defense, ranking 26th in the country for pass efficiency defense. It isn't going to matter which QB is starting, because neither one has shown they can play effectively. MSU returns one of its top linebackers with Clive Lowe, who should help the anemic pass rush that the Bobcats have shown all year. The Bobcats finally face a team that isn't a running team, and I think they will be able to shut down the Lumberjack offense. And with the Bobcats commitment to passing with Lulay down the stretch, there aren't too many defenses that are going to be able to shut down Lulay and Co, especially with the healthy return of running back Mike Bass who has been out for 4 weeks. Couple that with the fact that the Bobcats have not lost at home this season, I'll take the Cats in typical Bobcat fashion, not winning by as much as they should.
What to watch : Travis Lulay has caught fire once again midway through the season, and should continue that against a lackluster NAU defense.
- 23-31

Possible upset of the week: NAU over MSU
Best matchup: PSU @ UM
Worst matchup: EWU @ CSUS

longhorn_22 · Post by **longhorn_22** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 11:58 am

I agree with in why you think about the cats not winning by as much as they should, but I think Kramer will ahve them ready and they will win by more than 14.

PDXKat · Post by **PDXKat** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 1:17 pm

longhorn_22 wrote:I agree with in why you think about the cats not winning by as much as they should, but I think Kramer will ahve them ready and they will win by more than 14.

We should beat these guys by 4 TD's. We might not but we should if we're as good as I know we are capable of being.

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 2:10 pm

Don't get me wrong - I know we can win by 3 or more TDs, but I'm just going with our track record here. Hell, look at last year vs Weber, they were 1-10, and we beat them on a last second FG!

bozbobcat · Post by **bozbobcat** » Wed Oct 26, 2005 4:51 pm

Celtic Cat wrote:

Don't get me wrong - I know we can win by 3 or more TDs, but I'm just going with our track record here. Hell, look at last year vs Weber, they were 1-10, and we beat them on a last second FG!

You're right about that. We can't afford to look past anyone. We should beat these guys by 14 or more, but you never know. By the way, Celtic Cat, your weekly predictions are always good and always something to look forward to reading every week.

DriftCat · Post by **DriftCat** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 2:39 pm

The key to this game is that their D is as bad as ours. That being said, I think that our D will be much improved this week

and they dont have much of an offense.

NAU- 16
MSU-44

KillintheGriz · Post by **KillintheGriz** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:08 pm

This is one week I will be rooting for the Griz. If they beat PSU, we control our destiny. I would love to see a Cat/Griz matchup at home at the end of the year with the victor deciding the conference champs. Both teams need to win all games up that point.

If I'm not mistaken, the Griz switched to a 3-4 from a 4-3 defense last weekend for Cal Poly. How can the Griz switch in one week and play OK while we've had all year to perfect the 3-4 and can't do a good job. Something is amiss here. Possibly coaching.

Before the PSU-MSU game started I realized Mac was starting at LB. My first reaction was Nick M. would be a non-factor--and he was. This is a guy who had two solid performances the two games prior. Now let me get this straight. You move a guy back to his old position when he outperformed at Mac's old position. This doesn't make any sense.

The Bobcats play each game with a fear of losing. The Griz play each game with attitude--how many can we beat them by. For the Bobcats to establish themselves as a championship program, they need to erase this fear of losing attitude and get some Eddie Sulivan-towel-waving-spunk. We as fans know a three touchdown lead is not enough cushion. We are not a championship team this year as the defense stinks. I've thought since last year that 2007 will be the next national championship run. The reason is Lulay and company laid the groundwork, the recruits and talent came, and next a run in two years with Carpenter and company. It will be a balanced team that will just play good ball.

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 5:21 pm

KillintheGriz wrote:This is one week I will be rooting for the Griz. If they beat PSU, we control our destiny. I would love to see a Cat/Griz matchup at home at the end of the year with the victor deciding the conference champs. Both teams need to win all games up that point.

It needs to be that way every year!

BWahlberg · Post by **BWahlberg** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 6:38 pm

KillintheGriz wrote: If I'm not mistaken, the Griz switched to a 3-4 from a 4-3 defense last weekend for Cal Poly. How can the Griz switch in one week and play OK while we've had all year to perfect the 3-4 and can't do a good job. Something is amiss here. Possibly coaching.

Coaching possibly, but also the Griz were almost forced to switch to a 3-4, both our starters were out, Mullins and Saenz. Kain is done for the year, and the only other options we had at that spot was 2 undersized freshman. Cal Poly has a very small and light O line so the coaches saw the advantage of bringing in a 4th LB to help outside containment. Anyways the way Cal Poly runs their offense, it's not like the Griz had a lot of chances for sacking the QB, there were hardly any traditional pass plays in CPs game plan.

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:16 pm

We are not a championship team this year as the defense stinks

Your defense doesn't stink, your run defense stinks. Your pass D is good. Problem is, most schools outside of the Big Sky run first pass second. When the playoffs roll around a suspect pass D can get you by, as we proved last year ranked #117 in the pass D, but trying to stop teams like WKU or GSU with no run D could be tough.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 8:40 pm

DaGriz wrote:
We are not a championship team this year as the defense stinks
Your defense doesn't stink, your run defense stinks. Your pass D is good. Problem is, most schools outside of the Big Sky run first pass second. When the playoffs roll around a suspect pass D can get you by, as we proved last year ranked #117 in the pass D, but trying to stop teams like WKU or GSU with no run D could be tough.

I tend to agree with you dagriz. For me, this is the thing I'll be watching most closely this weekend. In theory, these next two games should be good games for these guys to gain a little attitude and momentum on the defensive side of the ball. I'm hoping that the return of three of our defensive starters (Mollohan, Lowe, Kolone) will strengthen this unit phyiscally and mentally.

I am definitely from the school that defense wins championships. With the power our offense brings to the game. All we need are 6 maybe 7 no-poin stops per game; more would obviously be better!

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Thu Oct 27, 2005 10:07 pm

KillintheGriz wrote: If I'm not mistaken, the Griz switched to a 3-4 from a 4-3 defense last weekend for Cal Poly. How can the Griz switch in one week and play OK while we've had all year to perfect the 3-4 and can't do a good job. Something is amiss here. Possibly coaching.

I wouldn't call 210 passing yards, 226 rushing yards and 27 points a "good" job. They did create 4 turnovers, however.