My percentage so far is 81.25%, 13 for 16. I need to step it up a bit! Unfortunately this week of games is insanely hard to predict.
This week only features 3 matchups, all BSC games. NAU and ISU both have a much needed bye.
Sacramento State @ Weber State
- The Hornets got a much needed tune-up game last week by soundly beating NAIA Azusa Pacific, 41-19. The game was closer than I expected for just over a quarter, with AZU actually leading at the end of the first. Sac blew up for 27 in the second though, lead behind Sophmore standout Ryan Mole, who rushed for 202 yards on 24 carries and 2 TDs, becoming just the third player in Hornet history to have multiple 200 yard games (Charles Roberts had an astounding 13 multiple 200 yard games). While Sac was taking care of AZU, Weber was losing it's second consecutive heartbreaking loss to a Montana school. They lost by 5 at UM, then by a last second FG to MSU at home. They actually put up more yards and points than any team in IAA has done on the Griz, and they did it in WAGriz, no small task. They face a Sac team that is winless on the road (although so is Weber), and who gives up 144 yards per game on the ground and over 2 TDs a game on the ground. Weber may be without their starting RB, but they have more than capable backups and can go 4 deep and have no real dip in talent. They average 175 per game on the ground. But they can beat you through the air as well, averaging 228 YPG. I think the three headed monster of Pizzaro(QB)/Hall(RB)/Jackson(WR) will be too much for the suspect Hornet defense to contain. The Hornets have a lot of talent but can never seem to pull it together, and Weber is making great progress under first year head coach Ron McBride. Neither team is a contender yet, but Weber is a lot closer than CSUS. Sac has a two game winning streaking coming into Ogden, and Weber is riding a two game losing streak. I see both of those streaks coming to an end Saturday.
What to watch : Brady Fosmark will give anyone in the country fits, and will apply pressure all day on an immobile Chris Hurd.
- 17-27
#8 Montana State @ Portland State
- Face it Bobcat fans - MSU has played horrid on the road this season against their IAA competition. They were hammered by Cal Poly and needed a miraculous comeback to beat a middle-of-the-pack Weber team. The Cats have been shooting themselves in the feet all season, even in their victories (with the exception of NDSU). While it speaks volumes about this team that they can win even when playing poorly, it is going to come back and nip you in the butt sometime. Unfortunately, I believe that will happen this week. MSU's run defense is 92nd in the nation giving up 191 per game. And while PSU's run offense is only 36th, they do have the #2 rusher in all of Division I football (including IA) in Joe Rubin. PSU rides or dies with Rubin. Rubin rushed for 151 yards and a TD vs IA Boise State and kept his team ahead for over a half. PSU's front five get a good push and open plenty of holes for Rubin, and he is dangerous when he bounces outside. While PSU had a solid showing at BSU, the Cats were winning about as ugly as you can in Ogden. 3 turnovers, 2 dropped TD passes (one for a endzone INT), 120 yards in penalties, and down by 14 with 12 minutes to go in the game. You simply cannot play that way week in and week out and excpect to keep winning. The problems are the worst on the road, and back-to-back road games are always hard. During their only IAA loss to EWU, the Viks simply could not stop Meyer and Cole (who rushed for 5 TDs). The Cats have found no answer at RB, and are starting to become one-dimensional once again. Lulay can still beat you any Saturday, but asking him to do that twice in a row on the road with no run defense is too tall of an order for this week. I think the Cats won't play as sloppy as they did at PSU, but will have to play even better than that to win.
What to watch : If MSU can somehow contain Rubin and minimize the sloppy play (turnovers and penalties), the Cats have all the talent to win this game.
- 24-28
#9 Eastern Washington @ #3 Montana
- If this isn't the biggest game in IAA, then I'm the Queen of England. Defense vs Offense. The classic showdown. The unstoppable machine vs the immovable wall. EWU quite humbly beat a undererforming NAU squad into the ground. The country was focused on bigger games (such as UM @ ISU), but this game was as solid of a performance as you can get. EWU passed for 322 yards, ran for 261 more and didn't turn the ball over. Oh yea, they played solid defense, giving up just 185 total yards, holding Murietta 4/12 for 33 yards before he came out. The glaring stat though - 41:58 TOP for the Eags. Meanwhile the Griz were taken off of offensive life support with the first start of RSFreshman QB Cole Berquist, who was 16/26 for 178 yard and 2 TDs (for the Griz QBs this year, this isn't too shabby). Unfortunately there is a lot of question to whether or not Jason Washington will be healthy enough to play, and if so, will he get the start? Berquist may have been the talk of the town, but the day belonged to Hilliard and the Griz defense. They completely shut down the ISU run game, while having a dominating performance from their own. Enough recapping. EWU has only scored under 30 once this year (a 35-24 loss to IA SJSU), and they will get their points. With the emergance of Ryan Cole, EWU can now beat you any way they want on offense. They average a mere 505 yards of offense a game, no big deal. Montana is giving up less than 300 YPG on defense, however, and are +1.4 in the turnover ratio. The Griz are going to come back to WAGriz with tons of confidence after their blowout of a good ISU team, and the crowd will only help to inflate that confidence. EWU on the other hand is playing with quiet precision and soundly beating solid teams. EWU has the best chance of anyone in the Sky to upend UM at home, and I think normally they would be too much firepower for anyone to handle, let alone UM, but the Griz are too tough at home and no one seems to play to their potential at WAGriz.
What to watch : The 12th man will make or break this game. If EWU stays calm and plays their game, victory will befall the Eags.
- 27-31
Possible upset of the week: Most of the games this week are evenly matched, and I had an extremely hard time picking the MSU/PSU and UM/EWU games. So I guess the upset possibility would be Sac over Weber, if that could be called an upset.
Best matchup: EWU @ UM
Worst matchup: None
Please prove me wrong Cats!
I hate picking against my boys! 
