MSU's 4-loss case

Cat Grad · Post by **Cat Grad** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 8:45 am

Correct me if I'm wrong, but Hampton's going to play in the big money bowl game in New Orleans and Delaware State MAY be selected as the MEAC's at-large. Probably not right, but that's what'll happen. Still leaves two at-large picks.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:43 am

tampa_griz wrote:
crazycat wrote:Nicely done. I do recall that Hofstra and others were a tad upset about that. But GMU proved themselves worthy no doubt about it. You'd have to agree that worked out pretty well for the MM selection committee. Here's hoping the I-AA committee matches that effort.

Unlike last year when MSU beat UM soundly and they finished with identical 5-2 marks in the Sky, but UM went to the playoffs anyway and got beat real bad at home. There was relatively little commotion over that one. I doubt that GMU was taken over Hofstra for financial reasons.
If our total W/L record (and not just BSC record) matched yours I'd agree but that wasn't the case. Two words......Portland State. If you would have beat them you'd have been in. But as it stood you were 7-4 overall and we were 8-3. As noted earlier, the entire seasons are compared. Not just one or two games.

If Team A has one more win than Team B and there has to be a decision as to which one is chosen for playoffs.....Team A is going to be chosen unless their SOS was a complete joke.

Yes, but you're using what most leagues use as the 3rd or 4th tiebreaker by skipping over head-to-head and common opponents to get to overal record. Yours, by-the-way, included a win over a D2. I have a hard time getting around head-to-head when teams have identical records. Sure, the GMU example is a good one, but it's also a bit of anamoly.

tampa_griz · Post by **tampa_griz** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:21 am

crazycat wrote:
tampa_griz wrote:
crazycat wrote:Nicely done. I do recall that Hofstra and others were a tad upset about that. But GMU proved themselves worthy no doubt about it. You'd have to agree that worked out pretty well for the MM selection committee. Here's hoping the I-AA committee matches that effort.

Unlike last year when MSU beat UM soundly and they finished with identical 5-2 marks in the Sky, but UM went to the playoffs anyway and got beat real bad at home. There was relatively little commotion over that one. I doubt that GMU was taken over Hofstra for financial reasons.
If our total W/L record (and not just BSC record) matched yours I'd agree but that wasn't the case. Two words......Portland State. If you would have beat them you'd have been in. But as it stood you were 7-4 overall and we were 8-3. As noted earlier, the entire seasons are compared. Not just one or two games.

If Team A has one more win than Team B and there has to be a decision as to which one is chosen for playoffs.....Team A is going to be chosen unless their SOS was a complete joke.
Yes, but you're using what most leagues use as the 3rd or 4th tiebreaker by skipping over head-to-head and common opponents to get to overal record. Yours, by-the-way, included a win over a D2. I have a hard time getting around head-to-head when teams have identical records. Sure, the GMU example is a good one, but it's also a bit of anamoly.

But the overall W/L record (barring an embarassing SOS) is usually the first indicator of the team's playoff prospects no? If there is a tie then head-to-head is probably looked at if the two teams met. And the winner of that would usually be given the decision unless the loser's SOS or some other outside factor was extreme. That said, even though we had a D-II win our SOS wasn't bad enough to make the SOS take precedence over the overall W/L record. If UM and MSU had the same overall W/L record then MSU would definitely have went ahead of UM.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 10:25 am

Catgrad,

Hampton has already won the auto bid for the MEAC and will be participating in the playoffs.

Crazycat- thanks for the props. However, at the end of your post you mentioned wins by No. Iowa and Maine would eliminate two spots from the list I posted as being alive with 4 losses. Not true. Maine and No. Iowa are both 6-4 at this point, so wins by them would only add two more 7-4 teams to mix, and cause a complete mess for the selection committee. Also, I believe Coastal Carolina will be in the field if they beat Charleston Southern on Saturday, as they would finish 9-2, with quality wins over both Furman and Wofford. So I stand by my prediciton, should the games go the way I see them, that there will be two spots left for the committee to choose between a number of teams. The Cats being one of them. I will also add, that if the committee does the right thing, by not gifting a spot to San Diego because of their perfect record against a patsie schedule, there will be two teams in the playoffs this year with 4 losses.

Cat Grad · Post by **Cat Grad** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:02 am

Old Wise One: I understand. I also read in one of the magazines somewhere that Hampton was going to the Bayou Classic this year. That's why the Delaware State record is going to be so interesting because they're in the same position as Coastal Carolina and South Carolina State--good records but the committee will probably rate them pretty low. In other words, the MEAC may not have anyone in the playoffs this year.

GreenDay17 · Post by **GreenDay17** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 11:27 am

old wise one wrote:Catgrad,

Hampton has already won the auto bid for the MEAC and will be participating in the playoffs.

Crazycat- thanks for the props. However, at the end of your post you mentioned wins by No. Iowa and Maine would eliminate two spots from the list I posted as being alive with 4 losses. Not true. Maine and No. Iowa are both 6-4 at this point, so wins by them would only add two more 7-4 teams to mix, and cause a complete mess for the selection committee. Also, I believe Coastal Carolina will be in the field if they beat Charleston Southern on Saturday, as they would finish 9-2, with quality wins over both Furman and Wofford. So I stand by my prediciton, should the games go the way I see them, that there will be two spots left for the committee to choose between a number of teams. The Cats being one of them. I will also add, that if the committee does the right thing, by not gifting a spot to San Diego because of their perfect record against a patsie schedule, there will be two teams in the playoffs this year with 4 losses.

Maine would be an extreme long shot at 7-4 since one of their wins was against DII Shaw University they would only have 6 DI wins. Generally teams with fewer than 7 DI wins are "automatically" excluded, but this is a different year with a shortage of 3 or fewer loss teams.

UNI would be in a similar boat to MSU. 4 losses with one of the losses to a DII school (North Dakota) and another to 1A Iowa State (by 1).

Cat Grad · Post by **Cat Grad** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 12:02 pm

GreenDay17 wrote:
old wise one wrote:Catgrad,

Hampton has already won the auto bid for the MEAC and will be participating in the playoffs.

Crazycat- thanks for the props. However, at the end of your post you mentioned wins by No. Iowa and Maine would eliminate two spots from the list I posted as being alive with 4 losses. Not true. Maine and No. Iowa are both 6-4 at this point, so wins by them would only add two more 7-4 teams to mix, and cause a complete mess for the selection committee. Also, I believe Coastal Carolina will be in the field if they beat Charleston Southern on Saturday, as they would finish 9-2, with quality wins over both Furman and Wofford. So I stand by my prediciton, should the games go the way I see them, that there will be two spots left for the committee to choose between a number of teams. The Cats being one of them. I will also add, that if the committee does the right thing, by not gifting a spot to San Diego because of their perfect record against a patsie schedule, there will be two teams in the playoffs this year with 4 losses.
Maine would be an extreme long shot at 7-4 since one of their wins was against DII Shaw University they would only have 6 DI wins. Generally teams with fewer than 7 DI wins are "automatically" excluded, but this is a different year with a shortage of 3 or fewer loss teams.

UNI would be in a similar boat to MSU. 4 losses with one of the losses to a DII school (North Dakota) and another to 1A Iowa State (by 1).

http://web1.ncaa.org/d1mfb/mainpage.jsp?year=2006

Here's a pretty neat page that the committee will sit down with Sunday and sweat and argue as to whether or not their conference should be represented with an extra at-large berth. I would like to think, in the event we lose Saturday, the strongest asset you have going into the Sunday meetings will be Wanless, our Conference Committee member from Sac State. Just hope for a little more equitable representation this year rather than like the last couple of years when four from either the Gateway or A-10 made it.

GreenDay17 · Post by **GreenDay17** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 12:07 pm

I don't know if it has been posted here or not, but on page 4 of this week's BSC press release is information about the playoff selection criteria.

FYI.

http://www.bigskyconf.com/articles/artf ... elease.pdf

GreenDay17 · Post by **GreenDay17** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 5:13 pm

old wise one wrote:Greenday, don't bother reading this, because it pertains to logic, and you can't comprhend that.

Old wise one (self appointed "great ones" usually aren't), did logic kill your thread?

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 5:57 pm

Greenday, you are obviously a young buck, with no respect. But I assume you are a PSU fan, and expect nothing less. Just like your football teams mentality.

Back to the topic. Catgrad, Hampton is definitely not playing in the Bayou classic, and will take part in the playoffs. Go to any number of other web sites(www.sportsnetwork.com included), if you don't take my educated word for it.

The committee states "any less than 7 division I wins will put you in jeopardy of not being selected" but that statement doesn't say definitely not selected. So in Maine's case, yes the fact that they have only 6 division I wins(should the beat New Hampshire this weekend), puts them in jeopardy of not making it. However, this is just a crazy year for the committee. Plus Maine's GPI rank is quite high, and would be even higher should they win this weekend. So who knows? They would have to be in the conversation.

But throughout all of my posting, I have maintained that should MSU lose to UM this weekend, I can make a strong case for MSU still getting in(with some help obviously, namely JMU beating Towson, other outcomes could only strengthen my argument). I only post the facts young grasshopper, I'm sorry if you are too blind to read them.

Plus I think with MSU's 3 quality wins, to PSU's two, MSU is a better football team than PSU. And I think the 14-0 drubbing our defense put on PSU only clarifies that point more. Did PSU cross the 50 more than once in that game?

GreenDay17 · Post by **GreenDay17** » Wed Nov 15, 2006 9:09 pm

old wise one wrote:Greenday, you are obviously a young buck, with no respect. But I assume you are a PSU fan, and expect nothing less. Just like your football teams mentality.

Back to the topic. Catgrad, Hampton is definitely not playing in the Bayou classic, and will take part in the playoffs. Go to any number of other web sites(www.sportsnetwork.com included), if you don't take my educated word for it.

The committee states "any less than 7 division I wins will put you in jeopardy of not being selected" but that statement doesn't say definitely not selected. So in Maine's case, yes the fact that they have only 6 division I wins(should the beat New Hampshire this weekend), puts them in jeopardy of not making it. However, this is just a crazy year for the committee. Plus Maine's GPI rank is quite high, and would be even higher should they win this weekend. So who knows? They would have to be in the conversation.

But throughout all of my posting, I have maintained that should MSU lose to UM this weekend, I can make a strong case for MSU still getting in(with some help obviously, namely JMU beating Towson, other outcomes could only strengthen my argument). I only post the facts young grasshopper, I'm sorry if you are too blind to read them.

Plus I think with MSU's 3 quality wins, to PSU's two, MSU is a better football team than PSU. And I think the 14-0 drubbing our defense put on PSU only clarifies that point more. Did PSU cross the 50 more than once in that game?

Wrong O'wise one, not a young buck. And yet I have never been so full of myself to annoint me as "adolescent genius", "wise beyond my years", or "middle aged sage".

Great citation from the playoff guidelines, but if you think that the committee will take a team with fewer than 7 DI wins over the other 7-4 teams available then you are definitely not an old wise one.

Your thoughts about MSU's 3 quality wins is just wonderful, except that in that conversation will also be the 3 bad losses suffered by MSU. MSU was a better team on that saturday, but I have some serious reservations about them being a better team over the entire course of the season than PSU.

1. PSU did not lose to 2 sub .500 teams and a DII
2. In the 7 common conference games PSU has played to an average 25.7-10.4 win (15.3 point ave victory) while MSU has played to an average 23.3-18.8 win (4.5 point ave victory)
3. PSU's two conference losses came by 6 points to the #2 1AA team in the nation while playing without their starting QB and starting TB, and by 14 to MSU in the first game back for both the QB and TB in what has turned out to be their poorest performance to date (so on PSU's worst day of the year the vaunted Bobcats were 14 points better, wow what a feather in your cap)

You have some valid points and I have some valid counter-points. We'll see on Sunday if you really are THE old wise one.

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 12:46 am

This can be argued 'til we are all blue in the face. It is politics, I believe the cats draw more fans than PSU so that may work in our favor. The selection commitee can use any logic that they want but a big consideration is who draws the fans.

Why do you think the fiz had a home game last year. Cal poly was certainly more deserving.

Citizen Griz · Post by **Citizen Griz** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 1:21 am

old wise one wrote:I will also add, that if the committee does the right thing, by not gifting a spot to San Diego because of their perfect record against a patsie schedule, there will be two teams in the playoffs this year with 4 losses.

Loosen up those Depends old wise one, they're cutting off the circulation to your brain.
San Diego is headed to the Grid Iron Classic and won't be able to participate in the playoffs.

Cat in NC · Post by **Cat in NC** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:20 am

Citizen Griz wrote:
old wise one wrote:I will also add, that if the committee does the right thing, by not gifting a spot to San Diego because of their perfect record against a patsie schedule, there will be two teams in the playoffs this year with 4 losses.
Loosen up those Depends old wise one, they're cutting off the circulation to your brain.
San Diego is headed to the Grid Iron Classic and won't be able to participate in the playoffs.

Where do you get your information? I see nothing on USD's website to indicate that they have confirmed participation in the Gridiron Classic. In fact, just the opposite. Their site states that "they will see on November 19 if their season has been good enough to earn a bid in the NCAA Division I-AA Playoffs". As far as I know, they're still hoping for a bid and if one comes, they will accept and Drake will participate in the Gridiron Classic representing the PFL.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 7:52 am

The only thing that gives San Diego's 10-0 would've been a win over Cal-Davis. Since that can't happen before selection day, don't expect to see them in the tourney. Yes, they have some big wins, by score, but they didn't play a team that we know is good this year or in the last 2 years. Next year they need to get some games against Top 25 teams and go from there.

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 9:49 am

Citizen Griz,

Just another example of another person spouting off about playoff posibilities without any knowledge. Do a little reasearch before you critize me about the San Diego possibility. Their coach Harbaugh has been spewing in the media for weeks now, that he thinks they are in the playoffs should the finish 10-0. I, on the other hand do not.

They had a game scheduled for 11/25(first round of the playoffs) with UC Davis, but Davis has agreed to cancel that game should USD get an invite to the playoffs. The Grid Iron classic isn't until the 2nd of December I believe, and USD has said that should they get the playoff invite, they will back out of the Grid Iron Classic as well. So I don't need to loosen up my depends, you just need to do better research before you open your mouth.

Citizen Griz · Post by **Citizen Griz** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:06 am

old wise one wrote:Citizen Griz,

Just another example of another person spouting off about playoff posibilities without any knowledge. Do a little reasearch before you critize me about the San Diego possibility. Their coach Harbaugh has been spewing in the media for weeks now, that he thinks they are in the playoffs should the finish 10-0. I, on the other hand do not.

They had a game scheduled for 11/25(first round of the playoffs) with UC Davis, but Davis has agreed to cancel that game should USD get an invite to the playoffs. The Grid Iron classic isn't until the 2nd of December I believe, and USD has said that should they get the playoff invite, they will back out of the Grid Iron Classic as well. So I don't need to loosen up my depends, you just need to do better research before you open your mouth.

Look, Harbaugh might be crying about wanting to go to the playoffs, but the so-called non-scholarshiped mid-majors have never been invited although they've certainly had undefeated teams in their ranks before. Should we start a list of all the non-scholarshipped football teams whose coaches have complained about not being invited to the playoffs over the yars. Let's see you do it Old wise one. I can think of four off the top of my head. Let's see if you've forgotten more than anybody knows.
The I-AA playoffs were created by and ran by full-scholarshiped schools.
And then there's the Gridiron Classic. The mid-majors' biggest game of the year and politically it doesn't look good for the team getting an invite to snubb the event because they suddenly want to be part of something it's always been understood they'd never be part of. It would be like the Cats or the Griz suddenly deciding their records were good enough that they were going to skip the brawl of the wild.
You also have to consider the strength of schedule for San Diego, which was weak to begin with and only got worse when they added two non-DI teams. San Diego will not be going to the playoffs.
Worse yet for the Gridiron Classic, is that 10-1 Monmouth, the other team in scheduled to play that game is also suggesting it wants to jump ship if it gets a playoff invite. I'll bet the folks who put on the Gridiron Classic are just thrilled that neither team is hoping to make the game. And I'll bet the respective conferences are scrambling to put a good face on this.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:28 am

I'm sick of hearing about San Diego.

San Diego should've thought about the I-AA playoffs before they scheduled a game on the first weekend of the playoffs. If you REALLY think you're a playoff team it come to you before the season starts. Therefore you don't schedule games a week after the season is over for the rest of the Division. Good grief! They'll get a chance to go to the playoffs next year, but they need to play at least 1 team from a autobid conf. before playoff weekend.

I think they have a great team based on how bad they whipped their opponents and the yardage they piled up. But you have to prove it by beating quality opposition before you play quality opposition.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:31 am

[quote="Citizen GrizI'll bet the folks who put on the Gridiron Classic are just thrilled that neither team is hoping to make the game. And I'll bet the respective conferences are scrambling to put a good face on this.[/quote]

No kidding. What they should do is put a couple teams from autobid conferences in GC and tell both Monmouth and San Diego to get lost. This takes a lot of gall by Monmouth and SD. Talk about have your cake and eat it, too.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Thu Nov 16, 2006 11:31 am

Weltercat wrote:Why do you think the fiz had a home game last year. Cal poly was certainly more deserving.

Were they? They had the same record as the Griz did, and the Griz beat them head-to-head in the regular season. Weren't you the one who was arguing earlier that the head-to-head result ought to be the deciding factor?