MSU's 4-loss case

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 7:14 am

I think we should start making some noise now about getting in with four losses. Not because I think it's a foregone conclusion that we'll lose to UM, but because if we don't make some noise no one will make a case for us for the second year in a row.
Like many of you, I thought we should've gone last year over UM. They were 7-2 vs. IAA teams and we were 7-3, but we BEAT them soundly. Their 1/2 game lead vs. IAAs shouldn't have swayed the selection committee. At the very least we both should've gone. I digress...

This year we should be a slam dunk unless we get wiped out by UM, which I doubt. If it's close we should go. I say this because:

1) Right now we are 13th in the Sagarin among teams eligible for the playoffs.

2) We will have won 6 of our last 7 with the only loss being at UM, which has only lost 18 games in the last 20 years at home.

3) I think the win over CU and loss to Chadron should cancel each other out. They can't knock us for losing to Chadron w/o crediting us for beating CU.

4) Several other teams above us in the polls and computers, like us, play each other and that will keep us from falling very far since some of them have to lose.

Sure, four losses means we go on the road, but it's a nice feather in our cap nonetheless. Also, JMU won three roadies en route the championship in 2004, so it can be done.

BelgradeBobcat · Post by **BelgradeBobcat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 9:45 am

If San Diego gets in: I suggest we become an independent, schedule a bunch of non-scholarship schools, and drop the toughest team from our schedule before we play them.

If Portland State gets in: Play only 1-A's (preferably ranked 1-A's) in non-conference.

People admire Portland State's schedule-but they got blasted by Cal and Oregon-those losses tell us absolutely nothing. I would hope the committee would give head to head competition due weight.

That being said, I doubt a 7-4 Portland State or a 7-4 Montana State gets in. And I also seriously doubt that San Diego gets in with just 10 games.

The Chadron loss and the the Davis shutout kill our chances without the autobid.

But then we'll never know-because we'll be 8-3! $\:D/$

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:28 pm

I agree we should have gone over Montana last year but the fiz will be in regardless because of the crowds they draw and how well they travel.

San Diego will get in if they are undefeated and Portland State will most likely get the nod over the cats for whatever reason.

We just plain have to beat the fizzlies if we want to see the post season and it will still most likely be an away game. It sucks but the selection committee doesn’t give much respect to the west coast. Two years ago I believe Cal Poly got snubbed when their record was 9-2 against a very good schedule computer ranking wise.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:42 pm

I'm not sure San Diego can get in, actually. They have a game scheduled against UC Davis on November 25th, which would be the same day as their first playoff game...

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:52 pm

Weltercat wrote:I agree we should have gone over Montana last year but the fiz will be in regardless because of the crowds they draw and how well they travel.

WHAT?? The GRIZ were 8-3 and state was 7-4. We were ranked higher in all polls, and had a higher GPI. There is no way state should have gotten in over MONTANA

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:56 pm

Eastcoastgriz wrote:
Weltercat wrote:I agree we should have gone over Montana last year but the fiz will be in regardless because of the crowds they draw and how well they travel.
WHAT?? The GRIZ were 8-3 and state was 7-4. We were ranked higher in all polls, and had a higher GPI. There is no way state should have gotten in over MONTANA

Politics man!!

The cats handled the fiz last year no problem and 7-4 should get you in with the schedule we had last year.

catamaran · Post by **catamaran** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:57 pm

Eastcoastgriz wrote:
Weltercat wrote:I agree we should have gone over Montana last year but the fiz will be in regardless because of the crowds they draw and how well they travel.
WHAT?? The GRIZ were 8-3 and state was 7-4. We were ranked higher in all polls, and had a higher GPI. There is no way state should have gotten in over MONTANA

One win was DII

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 1:57 pm

Grizlaw wrote:I'm not sure San Diego can get in, actually. They have a game scheduled against UC Davis on November 25th, which would be the same day as their first playoff game...

GRIZLAW San Diago will cancel their last game if they get picked to play for the Championship.

Weltercat · Post by **Weltercat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:04 pm

Eastcoastgriz wrote:
Grizlaw wrote:I'm not sure San Diego can get in, actually. They have a game scheduled against UC Davis on November 25th, which would be the same day as their first playoff game...
GRIZLAW San Diago will cancel their last game if they get picked to play for the Championship.

I am not sure they can just do that. I think UC Davis has to cooperate.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:05 pm

Eastcoastgriz wrote:GRIZLAW San Diago will cancel their last game if they get picked to play for the Championship.

Have they actually said they will cancel, or is that just what people on message boards have speculated?

I'd love to see them get sent to Missoula for a first round game in the snow.

Post by **kmax** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:06 pm

Weltercat wrote:
Eastcoastgriz wrote:
Grizlaw wrote:I'm not sure San Diego can get in, actually. They have a game scheduled against UC Davis on November 25th, which would be the same day as their first playoff game...
GRIZLAW San Diago will cancel their last game if they get picked to play for the Championship.
I am not sure they can just do that. I think UC Davis has to cooperate.

UC Davis has agreed to it and has said they would probably be asking for the same thing if the roles were reversed.

Grizlaw · Post by **Grizlaw** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:08 pm

kmax wrote:UC Davis has agreed to it and has said they would probably be asking for the same thing if the roles were reversed.

Ahh cool; I must've missed that. Thanks.

It's hard to say without knowing what the rest of the bracket looks like, but I'd have to think they'd be a fairly likely first-round opponent for the Griz (or the Cats, or PSU?)

tampa_griz · Post by **tampa_griz** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:12 pm

Weltercat wrote:
Eastcoastgriz wrote:
Weltercat wrote:I agree we should have gone over Montana last year but the fiz will be in regardless because of the crowds they draw and how well they travel.
WHAT?? The GRIZ were 8-3 and state was 7-4. We were ranked higher in all polls, and had a higher GPI. There is no way state should have gotten in over MONTANA
Politics man!!

The cats handled the fiz last year no problem and 7-4 should get you in with the schedule we had last year.

You only had one I-A on your schedule. Teams that get into the playoffs with four losses either played three or more good I-A teams (and played at least one or two of them well) and/or played the cream of the crop of I-AA (i.e. Cal Poly's schedule this year with Montana and North Dakota State might be an example). The schedule you had last year is not tough enough to warrant a playoff berth with 4 losses.

All hell would have broken loose if the Cats would have been selected over Montana with both schools having similiar schedules (our only gimmee was D-II Ft. Lewis) and yet Montana had a better record. Neither Montana nor MSU had any right to claim SOS should take precedence over the final W/L record. You'd have to be delusional to think otherwise. It's not as if either team played USC, Texas, and Oklahoma.

All of that aside, I would still think PSU would have a stronger argument than MSU for getting in if Montana State loses this weekend. That's not smack but an honest assessment. If both teams end up 7-4 there's no way the selection committee is going to pick MSU over PSU based on SOS.

tampa_griz · Post by **tampa_griz** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:15 pm

Grizlaw wrote:
kmax wrote:UC Davis has agreed to it and has said they would probably be asking for the same thing if the roles were reversed.
Ahh cool; I must've missed that. Thanks.

It's hard to say without knowing what the rest of the bracket looks like, but I'd have to think they'd be a fairly likely first-round opponent for the Griz (or the Cats, or PSU?)

I could be wrong but I thought there was a rule about teams from the same conference not playing against each other in the first round. Or wait.....you mean San Diego vs. Montana, or San Diego vs. MSU, or San Diego vs. PSU. That could be a real possibility.

Post by **kmax** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:21 pm

tampa_griz wrote: All of that aside, I would still think PSU would have a stronger argument than MSU for getting in if Montana State loses this weekend. That's not smack but an honest assessment. If both teams end up 7-4 there's no way the selection committee is going to pick MSU over PSU based on SOS.

I just don't get this argument. Look, I'm not really going to say the Cats deserve it more than any other 4 loss team as we took some bad losses, but I don't get this whole strength of schedule boosts PSU thing. Their strength of schedule is high because of essentially 5 games. UM, MSU, New Mexico, Cal and Oregon. Let's see, they are 1-4 in those games and the only one of those 4 losses they were even close on was UM, and that really wasn't that close. So they played a tough schedule, so what, they got spanked by the very part of the schedule that everyone says should make them good. They have 1 quality win, that's it. Just because they played and lost to good teams doesn't make them a playoff team! Like I said, I'm not trying to argue MSU over PSU as right now MSU only has a couple quality wins and some very bad losses, I'm just saying that I really think the logic that everyone is using to say PSU is such a good team is really, really flawed.

Robcat · Post by **Robcat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:24 pm

Good point Kmax.

tampa_griz · Post by **tampa_griz** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:27 pm

kmax wrote:I just don't get this argument. Look, I'm not really going to say the Cats deserve it more than any other 4 loss team as we took some bad losses, but I don't get this whole strength of schedule boosts PSU thing. Their strength of schedule is high because of essentially 5 games. UM, MSU, New Mexico, Cal and Oregon. Let's see, they are 1-4 in those games and the only one of those 4 losses they were even close on was UM, and that really wasn't that close. So they played a tough schedule, so what, they got spanked by the very part of the schedule that everyone says should make them good. They have 1 quality win, that's it. Just because they played and lost to good teams doesn't make them a playoff team! Like I said, I'm not trying to argue MSU over PSU as right now MSU only has a couple quality wins and some very bad losses, I'm just saying that I really think the logic that everyone is using to say PSU is such a good team is really, really flawed.

You and I agree that just because a team schedules tough opponents and loses to them doesn't make them a great team. But as Grizlaw noted, when the two teams' losses are compared PSU's don't look as bad as MSU's. It might not make them a playoff team.....but I could see the selection committing using this rationale if they had to pick PSU or MSU. It would certainly suck for MSU as they beat them but PSU would probably have a better record than MSU if it didn't play Cal and Oregon.

Compare the teams' quality wins.....both have one. MSU over Colorado and PSU over New Mexico. So far there's no way to gauge one team over the other so far.

Then compare MSU's three very bad losses (although Davis is a good team that was ugly) against PSU's losses and you have to give PSU the edge in this category.

Then there's the fact that MSU beat PSU and can't be ignored.

So I'm not sure how I'd vote but I'm pretty sure I know how the committee would. Just my two cents.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:31 pm

kmax wrote:
tampa_griz wrote: All of that aside, I would still think PSU would have a stronger argument than MSU for getting in if Montana State loses this weekend. That's not smack but an honest assessment. If both teams end up 7-4 there's no way the selection committee is going to pick MSU over PSU based on SOS.
I just don't get this argument. Look, I'm not really going to say the Cats deserve it more than any other 4 loss team as we took some bad losses, but I don't get this whole strength of schedule boosts PSU thing. Their strength of schedule is high because of essentially 5 games. UM, MSU, New Mexico, Cal and Oregon. Let's see, they are 1-4 in those games and the only one of those 4 losses they were even close on was UM, and that really wasn't that close. So they played a tough schedule, so what, they got spanked by the very part of the schedule that everyone says should make them good. They have 1 quality win, that's it. Just because they played and lost to good teams doesn't make them a playoff team! Like I said, I'm not trying to argue MSU over PSU as right now MSU only has a couple quality wins and some very bad losses, I'm just saying that I really think the logic that everyone is using to say PSU is such a good team is really, really flawed.

Couldn't have said it better myself KMAX, their TOUGH GAMES they got spanked in 3 of them and are 1-4. That sounds like an awesome playoff team to me .. NOT. Cats have beat 1-A Colorado, won 6 straight games to finish HOT and should beat the Griz so we don't have anything to worry about. Should they give them a TOUGH hard fought game, then I expect a VERY GOOD look by the playoff committee since they have been finishing the year VERY WELL winning 6 in a row (maybe 6/7 if they lose to Griz). You have to reward teams like that who have improved and gotten a LOT better as the year goes on. The NCAA bball committee does that so I cannot see how that cannot be overlooked when weighing 7-4 teams.

Oh and also, did I say we PASTED PSU 14-0 as well this year? If you need a kicker to throw in who is better why not maybe look at the HEAD TO HEAD game??? You think? Pretty obvious if there is any question about it I would use head to head and quality of play to finish out the season to determine which team should go.

Post by **SonomaCat** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:35 pm

I do agree that the head to head thing should be a huge factor in any decision like this (not the only factor, but should be weighted heavily). I always hate to see other factors taken over head-to-head ... it flies in the face of the "decide it on the field" thing.

But we do have to be careful about throwing stones in glass houses when we start talking about other teams' losses.

Post by **kmax** » Tue Nov 14, 2006 2:37 pm

tampa_griz wrote:
kmax wrote:I just don't get this argument. Look, I'm not really going to say the Cats deserve it more than any other 4 loss team as we took some bad losses, but I don't get this whole strength of schedule boosts PSU thing. Their strength of schedule is high because of essentially 5 games. UM, MSU, New Mexico, Cal and Oregon. Let's see, they are 1-4 in those games and the only one of those 4 losses they were even close on was UM, and that really wasn't that close. So they played a tough schedule, so what, they got spanked by the very part of the schedule that everyone says should make them good. They have 1 quality win, that's it. Just because they played and lost to good teams doesn't make them a playoff team! Like I said, I'm not trying to argue MSU over PSU as right now MSU only has a couple quality wins and some very bad losses, I'm just saying that I really think the logic that everyone is using to say PSU is such a good team is really, really flawed.
You and I agree that just because a team schedules tough opponents and loses to them doesn't make them a great team. But as Grizlaw noted, when the two teams' losses are compared PSU's don't look as bad as MSU's. It might not make them a playoff team.....but I could see the selection committing using this rationale if they had to pick PSU or MSU. It would certainly suck for MSU as they beat them but PSU would probably have a better record than MSU if it didn't play Cal and Oregon.

Agreed that they may use that as reason to pick PSU over MSU, like I said I am not trying to argue specifically for MSU over PSU. However, your last statement I do have to disagree with. How exactly do we know that they "probably would have a better record than MSU if it didn't play Cal and Oregon"? What other quality wins do they have that MSU also doesn't have that bear this out? This is my point, yes they played a tough schedule with Cal and Oregon, but it isn't like they just barely got beat and showed in those games to be a top team...they got spanked and it showed absolutely nothing. To take from that they would have won had they played lesser teams is a leap of faith over a mile wide chasm.