Week 5 Sagarin Predictions

ZifCat52 · Post by **ZifCat52** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 1:14 pm

Last week the Sagarin ratings were 4 out of 5 (guess what, the Cat / Eastern Washington game was the only incorrect prediction) bringing the year's numbers up to 75% (21 / 28, 4 of the 7 incorrect games are MSU's).

This week's predicted winners are:

Weber State over Northern Colorado tonight (Supposed to be on ESPNU)
Northern Arizona over Montana State
Portland State over Montana
Eastern Washington over Sac State

Idaho State is idle, the home teams are predicted to win each game.

The predicted final standings look like this:

Portland State: 9-2 Overall, 8-0 Conference
Montana: 9-2 Overall, 7-1 Conference
Eastern Washington: 6-5 Overall, 6-2 Conference
Northern Arizona: 6-5 Overall, 5-3 Conference
Montana State: 5-6 Overall, 4-4 Conference
Weber State: 4-7 Overall, 3-5 Conference
Idaho State: 2-9 Overall, 1-7 Conference
Northern Colorado: 2-9 Overall, 1-7 Conference
Sacramento State: 1-10 Overall, 1-7 Conference

Any guesses on whether the Cats will break the streak of the Sagarin predictions being wrong every game for them?

MTGriz12 · Post by **MTGriz12** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 4:30 pm

I wouldn't put a dime on anything this clown says.(Sagarin) No offense but 3 weeks ago he had you guys going un-defeated in conference and overall. He had the Griz at 7-5 going 5-4 in conference?? I think he's a typical sports writer, all guess and no actual clue. He probably never played sports as a kid. I think the only game he got right this week is Weber over N.Colorado............oh and ISU IS on a bye so he got 2 right.
Good luck this weekend!!!

old wise one · Post by **old wise one** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 4:52 pm

MT Griz-

He is not a sportswriter, you clown

He is a mathmatician/statistician who uses numbers and mathmatics to rank teams, and thus you can make predictions based on his analysis.

MTGriz12 · Post by **MTGriz12** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:00 pm

I wouldn't put a dime on anything I say then.

It just goes to show you why they play em' on the field and not on paper. I know his numbers are going to change weekly but after UC Davis beat you guys he had them running the table and ranked 5th?? Well he and his numbers are pretty far off quite a bit..........which is a good thing for both Cats' and Griz this weekend!!!

GrizinWashington · Post by **GrizinWashington** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:20 pm

I wouldn't put a dime on anything I say then.

That was pretty funny.

The problem with Sagarin is that it really doesn't start to have any credibility until very late in the season. Then, it's a marginally accurate predictor, although in every year I've looked Tony Moss/Matt Dougherty have had better percentages of correct choices. There's only so much you can do in the two-demensional world of numbers on paper when the game is played in a 3-demensional world.

bcats · Post by **bcats** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 5:23 pm

This is the second post I have observed in this forum that has some mathmatical equation picking the winners and losers. Sorry, but football is played on the field and can't be predicted using math, science, english, philosophy, or history. Well maybe history when one is considering how good a team has played in the past. Either way, when all is said and done the team that plays the best on gameday will win the game. Go Cats lets get back on the winning track.

bobcatmaniac · Post by **bobcatmaniac** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 7:57 pm

Maybe hok't on fawniks wil help predikt tha gaem

WyomingGrizFan · Post by **WyomingGrizFan** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 8:30 pm

Post by **kmax** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 9:20 pm

WyomingGrizFan wrote:I'am just wondering where 'Zifcat52' got these so-called predictions; the link below shows New Hampshire the highest rated I-AA team at #55 & Montana at #56 with Portland State @ #66, the third highest. Doesn't Sagarin go by his own rating system in his predictions? If he does, why is he picking a lower team(#66) over a higher (#55)?

http://www.kiva.net/~jsagarin/sports/cfsend.htm

I am no expert at it, but by reading here is what I would guess is a pretty good shot at why.

To make predictions for upcoming games, simply compare the RATINGS of
the teams in question and allow an ADDITIONAL 3 points for the home
team. Thus, for example, a HOME team with a rating of 92 would be
favored by 5 points over a VISITING team having a rating of 90.
Or a VISITING team with a rating of 89 would be favored by 7 points
over a HOME team having a rating of 79.

NOTE: Use whatever home advantage is listed in the output below.
In the example just above, a home edge of 3 was shown for
illustrative purposes. The home edge will vary during the season.

So.....

Code: Select all

HOME ADVANTAGE=  3.57           RATING
  56  Montana                   AA =  72.24
  66  Portland State            AA =  70.60

Which gives:
Montana (72.24) losing to Portland State (70.60+3.57=74.17)

grizwiz · Post by **grizwiz** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 10:35 pm

wow, and somebody believes this sh&$???

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Thu Sep 28, 2006 11:22 pm

grizwiz wrote:wow, and somebody believes this sh&$??? :lol:

The BCS belives it to the tune of millions of dollars. Sagarin is one of the six official computer polls.

griz8791 · Post by **griz8791** » Fri Sep 29, 2006 7:04 am

Does this mean our guys can approach the game like they're being disrespected and call it an upset if they win?

WyomingGrizFan · Post by **WyomingGrizFan** » Sun Oct 01, 2006 1:50 am

Another Sagarin prediction falls down & goes BOOM!!!