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Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 4:57 pm
by Lord Vigo
Record:
-MSU: 11-0, 7-0 Conference
-UM: 8-3, 5-2 Conference
Opposition Record:
-MSU: 46-74 (.383), 32-44 Conference (.421)
-UM: 54-64 (.457), 29-46 Conference (.387)
Scoring:
-MSU: 41.3, 17.55 Allowed, +23.75
-UM: 36.1, 26.18 Allowed, +9.92
Yards:
-MSU: 7.58 Yds/Play, 4.92 Yds/Play Allowed
-UM: 6.23 Yds/Play, 5.27 Yds/Play Allowed
Rushing:
-MSU: 7.01 YPC, 3.80 YPC Allowed
-UM: 5.61 YPC, 3.75 YPC Allowed
Passing:
-MSU: 8.81 YPA, 5.98 YPA Allowed
-UM: 6.92 YPA, 7.02 YPA Allowed
3rd Down:
-MSU: 55.6%, 33.6% Allowed
-UM: 45.8%, 37.2% Allowed
Redzone Touchdowns:
-MSU: 38/47, 81%; 18/26 Allowed, 69%
-UM: 35/50, 70%; 19/35 Allowed, 54%
2-Deep Montana Players (Offense/Defense Only):
-MSU: 21
-UM: 14
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 5:07 pm
by jgrilley406
Missed one category…2024 Big Sky Championships MSU 1 UM 0
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 5:38 pm
by coloradocat
Games scoring 30+ points
-MSU: 11
-UM: 6
Games allowing <20 points
-MSU: 7
-UM: 4
Games allowing 30+ points
-MSU: 1
-UM: 4
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 5:50 pm
by MSU Toddler
For what it’s worth…
The following are the current records of the teams the gris lost to:
UND: 5-6
Weber: 3-8 / 2-5
UCD: 9-2 / 6-1
That means the combined records of the teams the gris beat are:
37-48 (.435) / 21-40 (.344)
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Sun Nov 17, 2024 6:00 pm
by ilovethecats
MSU Toddler wrote: ↑Sun Nov 17, 2024 5:50 pm
For what it’s worth…
The following are the current records of the teams the gris lost to:
UND: 5-6
Weber: 3-8 / 2-5
UCD: 9-2 / 6-1
That means the combined records of the teams the gris beat are:
37-48 (.435) / 21-40 (.344)
How is this possible? After UND beat the griz I heard all day long how amazing UND was and how they’d beat the cats if we played them. lol.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:44 pm
by Lord Vigo
Here are the top 5 rushing offenses that the Griz have played this season, their YPG and YPC averages, and then their YPG and YPC against UM.
EW:
-Avg: 238, 5.3
-UM: 263, 6.7
WEB:
-Avg: 199, 5.1
-UM: 177, 4.7
NAU:
-Avg: 193, 5.2
-UM: 175, 4.5
UND:
-Avg: 192, 4.7
-UM: 243, 5.0
PSU:
-Avg: 188, 4.6
-UM: 213, 4.2
So in three games, teams exceeded their per game average and in two they fell short, once by 18 yards and once by 22 yards.
In two games, teams exceeded their per carry average and in three they fell short, twice by 0.4 and once by 0.7.
So basically, in aggregate, the best rush offenses that have played UM this season have been right around their season averages.
Overall, UM's rush defense against these 5 teams comes out to an average of: 214 yards allowed, 4.96 YPC allowed.
Their overall numbers (138, 3.75) are greatly buoyed by their games against Morehead State, UNC, and CP, which collectively achieved: 90/114/1.3.
If this held, MSU would be in the neighborhood of 45 carries for 317 yards on Saturday.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:23 pm
by BelligerentBobcat
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Here are the top 5 rushing offenses that the Griz have played this season, their YPG and YPC averages, and then their YPG and YPC against UM.
EW:
-Avg: 238, 5.3
-UM: 263, 6.7
WEB:
-Avg: 199, 5.1
-UM: 177, 4.7
NAU:
-Avg: 193, 5.2
-UM: 175, 4.5
UND:
-Avg: 192, 4.7
-UM: 243, 5.0
PSU:
-Avg: 188, 4.6
-UM: 213, 4.2
So in three games, teams exceeded their per game average and in two they fell short, once by 18 yards and once by 22 yards.
In two games, teams exceeded their per carry average and in three they fell short, twice by 0.4 and once by 0.7.
So basically, in aggregate, the best rush offenses that have played UM this season have been right around their season averages.
Overall, UM's rush defense against these 5 teams comes out to an average of: 214 yards allowed, 4.96 YPC allowed.
Their overall numbers (138, 3.75) are greatly buoyed by their games against Morehead State, UNC, and CP, which collectively achieved: 90/114/1.3.
If this held, MSU would be in the neighborhood of 45 carries for 317 yards on Saturday.
What is it if you take sacks out?
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:55 pm
by Lord Vigo
BelligerentBobcat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:23 pm
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Here are the top 5 rushing offenses that the Griz have played this season, their YPG and YPC averages, and then their YPG and YPC against UM.
EW:
-Avg: 238, 5.3
-UM: 263, 6.7
WEB:
-Avg: 199, 5.1
-UM: 177, 4.7
NAU:
-Avg: 193, 5.2
-UM: 175, 4.5
UND:
-Avg: 192, 4.7
-UM: 243, 5.0
PSU:
-Avg: 188, 4.6
-UM: 213, 4.2
So in three games, teams exceeded their per game average and in two they fell short, once by 18 yards and once by 22 yards.
In two games, teams exceeded their per carry average and in three they fell short, twice by 0.4 and once by 0.7.
So basically, in aggregate, the best rush offenses that have played UM this season have been right around their season averages.
Overall, UM's rush defense against these 5 teams comes out to an average of: 214 yards allowed, 4.96 YPC allowed.
Their overall numbers (138, 3.75) are greatly buoyed by their games against Morehead State, UNC, and CP, which collectively achieved: 90/114/1.3.
If this held, MSU would be in the neighborhood of 45 carries for 317 yards on Saturday.
What is it if you take sacks out?
Let me know after you figure it out.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
by FA_Q_M
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:35 pm
by AFCAT
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
That's one of the things that gives um such a big advantage every year. There rarely, if at ever, play in front of large hostile crowds. This season, they only have five away games and next year they only have four away games in a 12 game season! They don't even play an away game until October! One of their home games next season is against a Div 2 team. So, they are probably going to have a decent record next season just because they play so many games at home. MSU will only have five away games next year but that was because of the SFA fiasco, they were originally going to have six.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:46 pm
by coloradocat
AFCAT wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:35 pm
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
That's one of the things that gives um such a big advantage every year. There rarely, if at ever, play in front of large hostile crowds. This season, they only have five away games and next year they only have four away games in a 12 game season! They don't even play an away game until October! One of their home games next season is against a Div 2 team. So, they are probably going to have a decent record next season just because they play so many games at home. MSU will only have five away games next year but that was because of the SFA fiasco, they were originally going to have six.
I've always assumed that their advantage isn't that they don't play in front of hostile crowds but that their opponents do when they come to Missoula. Same goes for us. Both stadiums are so out of the ordinary in the FCS that it's a significant advantage that doesn't exactly work in the opposite direction. I haven't done the research but I think the history of Cat/griz backs this up (home field advantage isn't as big of a boost in this game as you would think).
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:28 pm
by WalkOn79
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
Fife's first Cat/Griz. We're coming off a 6 sack game and the Griz OL is not Davis' OL. I like this matchup more very day.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 9:33 pm
by RockyBearCat
WalkOn79 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:28 pm
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
Fife's first Cat/Griz. We're coming off a 6 sack game and the Griz OL is not Davis' OL. I like this matchup more very day.
This. Yep.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:48 pm
by Montanabob
RockyBearCat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 9:33 pm
WalkOn79 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:28 pm
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
Fife's first Cat/Griz. We're coming off a 6 sack game and the Griz OL is not Davis' OL. I like this matchup more very day.
This. Yep.
and his last. portal bound.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 5:46 am
by TomCat88
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:55 pm
BelligerentBobcat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:23 pm
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Here are the top 5 rushing offenses that the Griz have played this season, their YPG and YPC averages, and then their YPG and YPC against UM.
EW:
-Avg: 238, 5.3
-UM: 263, 6.7
WEB:
-Avg: 199, 5.1
-UM: 177, 4.7
NAU:
-Avg: 193, 5.2
-UM: 175, 4.5
UND:
-Avg: 192, 4.7
-UM: 243, 5.0
PSU:
-Avg: 188, 4.6
-UM: 213, 4.2
So in three games, teams exceeded their per game average and in two they fell short, once by 18 yards and once by 22 yards.
In two games, teams exceeded their per carry average and in three they fell short, twice by 0.4 and once by 0.7.
So basically, in aggregate, the best rush offenses that have played UM this season have been right around their season averages.
Overall, UM's rush defense against these 5 teams comes out to an average of: 214 yards allowed, 4.96 YPC allowed.
Their overall numbers (138, 3.75) are greatly buoyed by their games against Morehead State, UNC, and CP, which collectively achieved: 90/114/1.3.
If this held, MSU would be in the neighborhood of 45 carries for 317 yards on Saturday.
What is it if you take sacks out?
Let me know after you figure it out.
All these differences would balloon if they only included starter stats. MSU’s are negatively impacted quite a bit by that. I would say the equivalent of 2.5 to 3 games have been played solely by backups.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 7:43 am
by Lord Vigo
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 5:46 am
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:55 pm
BelligerentBobcat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 1:23 pm
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 12:44 pm
Here are the top 5 rushing offenses that the Griz have played this season, their YPG and YPC averages, and then their YPG and YPC against UM.
EW:
-Avg: 238, 5.3
-UM: 263, 6.7
WEB:
-Avg: 199, 5.1
-UM: 177, 4.7
NAU:
-Avg: 193, 5.2
-UM: 175, 4.5
UND:
-Avg: 192, 4.7
-UM: 243, 5.0
PSU:
-Avg: 188, 4.6
-UM: 213, 4.2
So in three games, teams exceeded their per game average and in two they fell short, once by 18 yards and once by 22 yards.
In two games, teams exceeded their per carry average and in three they fell short, twice by 0.4 and once by 0.7.
So basically, in aggregate, the best rush offenses that have played UM this season have been right around their season averages.
Overall, UM's rush defense against these 5 teams comes out to an average of: 214 yards allowed, 4.96 YPC allowed.
Their overall numbers (138, 3.75) are greatly buoyed by their games against Morehead State, UNC, and CP, which collectively achieved: 90/114/1.3.
If this held, MSU would be in the neighborhood of 45 carries for 317 yards on Saturday.
What is it if you take sacks out?
Let me know after you figure it out.
All these differences would balloon if they only included starter stats. MSU’s are negatively impacted quite a bit by that. I would say the equivalent of 2.5 to 3 games have been played solely by backups.
Yeah, MSU’s stats are super muddy this year across the board for that reason.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 9:40 am
by cats2506
Montanabob wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 11:48 pm
RockyBearCat wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 9:33 pm
WalkOn79 wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 4:28 pm
FA_Q_M wrote: ↑Mon Nov 18, 2024 2:23 pm
Something off the stat sheet that may play a critical role this Saturday is how many big, hostile crowds have the gris played in front of. This will be BY FAR the biggest, loudest anti-gris crowd they'll face this year. Couple the crowd with those avg rushing stats and it makes me think the gwisslies are in for a long day.
Fife's first Cat/Griz. We're coming off a 6 sack game and the Griz OL is not Davis' OL. I like this matchup more very day.
This. Yep.
and his last. portal bound.
Does anyone know Fifes status, He has already transferred so he would need to graduate in order to transfer again. He should be pretty close to graduating but I don't know.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:31 am
by Bocephus
Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:53 am
by Lord Vigo
Bocephus wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:31 am
Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.
That sample is EW, WEB, and NAU:
EW allowed 37 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 52. They allowed 8.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.7.
WEB allowed 29 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 48. They allowed 7.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.4.
NAU allowed 18 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 31. They allowed 6.0 YPA on the year and Fife was at 7.4.
They were definitely better when Fife played the whole game. That stands to reason-- KAY is not good. But it's also a small sample and two of those games were at home and two of them were against really bad defenses.
When it looked like they were going to start KAY, I was predicting that MSU's defense would outscore the UM offense.
With Fife, they will put some points up. However, as long as the Cats' offense does what they should, UM won't be able to keep up. And the more they play from behind, the uglier it will get. The Griz line has not been good this year and the Cats will be the best front they've faced, especially in the pass rush department.
Re: Cat/Griz Statistical Comparison
Posted: Tue Nov 19, 2024 11:19 am
by GoldstoneCat
Lord Vigo wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:53 am
Bocephus wrote: ↑Tue Nov 19, 2024 10:31 am
Should do a statistical comparison in games that only Fife played. Their offense is better with him.
That sample is EW, WEB, and NAU:
EW allowed 37 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 52. They allowed 8.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.7.
WEB allowed 29 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 48. They allowed 7.3 YPA on the year and Fife was at 8.4.
NAU allowed 18 PPG on defense this year and the Griz scored 31. They allowed 6.0 YPA on the year and Fife was at 7.4.
They were definitely better when Fife played the whole game. That stands to reason-- KAY is not good. But it's also a small sample and two of those games were at home and two of them were against really bad defenses.
When it looked like they were going to start KAY, I was predicting that MSU's defense would outscore the UM offense.
With Fife, they will put some points up. However, as long as the Cats' offense does what they should, UM won't be able to keep up. And the more they play from behind, the uglier it will get. The Griz line has not been good this year and the Cats will be the best front they've faced, especially in the pass rush department.
I think it's vital to get him moving backwards early and take away his first look. As you say, get them down early to apply pressure. I know Vigen likes to win the "middle 8" around halftime but it would not break my heart to have the ball first in this game and go hang 7.
Fife is strongest when he can hit his back foot and kick the ball out to his first read. So messing with his eyes is important, and stopping the run to neutralize play action is also. I like the match up for the defense but we will need to stop the run without loading the box.