Page 1 of 4
Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:25 am
by Catprint
This post only has a half-life until Monday late morning. Will the Cats be #2 or #3 in the Stats poll released on Monday?
As I laid out in "Path to the Playoffs", originally I thought the winner of the game would be #1 and the loser of the Marker Game would drop to number 3. Now I am not so sure. The game was super close and it came down to the end. The defense on both sides of the ball was huge. I think it is possible the voters will decide SDSU is just behind NDSU and rank them as #2 and putting MSU at #3.
But regardless of poll position on Monday, a bigger question I will continue to address in my regular posts is who gets the #2 seed if NDSU wins outs. I am concerned now that even if the Cats win out, they will not get a #1 or #2 seed. Basically, NDSU has a good path to win out. They clearly will get #1 seed. SDSU has a more difficult path having to play UND, USD and MOST. All of those games are difficult. But if all three teams win out, my confidence in the committee giving the Cats the #2 seed, even though undefeated with an FBS win, is somewhat shaken by extremely tight Marker Game results. We will have to wait each week to see if all three teams win.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:31 am
by 91catAlum
The Cats will stay 3rd in the polls this week but if they win out they will get the 2 seed. Winning out would give them wins over highly ranked Idaho, Davis, and the griz plus an FBS win and a 12-0 record. Sdsu best win is Incarnate Word plus they played a D2 team this year. Ndsu was a lucky onside kick away from losing at ETSU a few weeks ago.
But its still October. Lots of football left and its unlikely that all 3 teams win out.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 1:02 am
by TomCat88
The polls? They might be fourth in the polls.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 2:35 am
by catsrback76
TomCat88 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 1:02 am
The polls? They might be fourth in the polls.
I’m with Tom, we drop on the dsu bias ( rightly so) to 4th but if the moon is in the second house we are “granted” 3rd!
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 5:32 am
by Prodigal Cat
If your a voter and you vote SDSU above the Cats your not paying attention. 8 D1 wins to 4. Each have 1 ranked win. Cats have a top 10 win SDSU does not. SDSU has lost an FCS game and the Cats have not. The committee will absolutely look at the resume this way.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 5:59 am
by MSU01
I'm guessing MSU moves up to #2. Right now SDSU has 1,374 points and 38 first place votes while MSU has 1,320 points and 10 first place votes. If we assume that most of the 38 SDSU first place votes (let's say 35) now go to NDSU, then SDSU is down to 1,339 points at best and that's if all of the current SDSU #1 voters only move SDSU from #1 to #2. It's a safe bet that some of those voters will go with #1 NDSU, #2 MSU, #3 SDSU as their ranking though which should drop SDSU and push MSU up to enough points to pass SDSU. I'll predict that MSU is #2 with a 10-15 point margin over SDSU at #3. The main thing that could hurt MSU is if several of the voters who have been giving them first place votes switch those over to NDSU.
Does anyone know when the playoff committee releases their mid-season ranking? Last year it was after Week 8 which would be this week. This is the one ranking that really matters!
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 7:47 am
by RootinfortheCats
The cats will move to #2.
SDSU will go to #3.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 8:01 am
by St George
It will be hard to rank SDSU at number 2 when they are currently 5th in their own division.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 8:03 am
by blueandgoldblitz
MSU01 wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 5:59 am
Does anyone know when the playoff committee releases their mid-season ranking? Last year it was after Week 8 which would be this week. This is the one ranking that really matters!
I thought I remember seeing that they'd release it Oct 30 but that seems like an odd day to do it so take my answer with a grain of salt.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 8:37 am
by lutecat
They didn't drop us after the week 1 loss to sdsu right? This was the one outcome for the N/S-DSU game where I could see them just swapping them in the polls. So I'm hopeful we're 2, but I won't be surprised if we stay at 3.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 8:43 am
by cats2506
I think we are at #2, over a 2 loss SDSU. more interesting will be to see the committee's ranking on Wednesday.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 ign Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 9:37 am
by RickRund
If the CATS stay at #3 it is just more incentive to lay some hurt on ewoo in two weeks.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 10:07 am
by MSUBRONCO
Should be 2 but will we?
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 10:11 am
by BleedingBLue
We'll be #2 and USD will be #3
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 10:20 am
by catatac
Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:25 am
This post only has a half-life until Monday late morning. Will the Cats be #2 or #3 in the Stats poll released on Monday?
As I laid out in "Path to the Playoffs", originally I thought the winner of the game would be #1 and the loser of the Marker Game would drop to number 3. Now I am not so sure. The game was super close and it came down to the end. The defense on both sides of the ball was huge. I think it is possible the voters will decide SDSU is just behind NDSU and rank them as #2 and putting MSU at #3.
But regardless of poll position on Monday, a bigger question I will continue to address in my regular posts is who gets the #2 seed if NDSU wins outs. I am concerned now that even if the Cats win out, they will not get a #1 or #2 seed. Basically, NDSU has a good path to win out. They clearly will get #1 seed. SDSU has a more difficult path having to play UND, USD and MOST. All of those games are difficult. But if all three teams win out, my confidence in the committee giving the Cats the #2 seed, even though undefeated with an FBS win, is somewhat shaken by extremely tight Marker Game results. We will have to wait each week to see if all three teams win.
The Cats will move to #2, and will stay there if they can somehow win the next four. If this happens, they will also get the #2 seed, unless NDSU loses a game, in which case the Cats will be the #1 seed. This is a lock.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 10:41 am
by cats2506
Both xDSU's still play USD and MoSt. SDSU still plays at UND too, We still have @UCD and UM
Still a lot of games that could affect the bracket and seeding. I think MSU is in a very good position for a top 2 seed if we take care of business. Our Bye is at a good time.
um and UCD probably need to win out to get a top 8 seed and have a bye the first round, they play each other so one will be playing in the first round most likely.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 11:27 am
by Bobcat Sig
I have little doubt that the pollsters will keep the DSU schools at #1 and #2 because they don’t pay attention and recency bias is real.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 11:30 am
by BleedingBLue
Bobcat Sig wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 11:27 am
I have little doubt that the pollsters will keep the DSU schools at #1 and #2 because they don’t pay attention and recency bias is real.
The coaches poll voters don't pay attention. The Stats voters do. Cats received several additional first place votes after crushing Idaho.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:01 pm
by seataccat
Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:25 am
NDSU has a good path to win out. They clearly will get #1 seed. SDSU has a more difficult path having to play UND, USD and MOST. All of those games are difficult.
I think the cats will remain at #3 and that is fine. If both NDSU and SDSU win out from here they should be #1 and #2 but I think that is highly unlikely. If the cats win out the regular season there is a great chance they will be #1 or #2.
Re: Short-Life Post - #2 or #3 in Stats Poll Come Monday?
Posted: Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:18 pm
by BleedingBLue
seataccat wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:01 pm
Catprint wrote: ↑Sun Oct 20, 2024 12:25 am
NDSU has a good path to win out. They clearly will get #1 seed. SDSU has a more difficult path having to play UND, USD and MOST. All of those games are difficult.
I think the cats will remain at #3 and that is fine. If both NDSU and SDSU win out from here they should be #1 and #2 but I think that is highly unlikely. If the cats win out the regular season there is a great chance they will be #1 or #2.
Why should a team that can finish 9-1 at best against the FCS be top 2 seeded if there is a 12-0 BSC team? If they weren't named SDSU would you say the same?