2024 Edition- Path to the Playoffs - WEEK 13 - END OF SEASON - FINAL BRACKET PREDICTION

[Catprint]

Path to the Playoffs -2024 Edition – Week 0

Welcome to another series of the Path to the Playoffs. This is my sixth year of writing these weekly posts. This year I took off the dual title of “Path to the Natty” since it seems I was overly optimistic last year and don’t want to oversell the theme! I still have no time in my schedule for the 3-6 hours it takes me each week read, listen and put thoughts on paper. But there is nothing better to do at midnight. For anyone new, here is a quick reminder of what “Path to the Playoffs (PTTP)” is and is not:

What PTTP is not:
• Not a bunch of X’s and O’s and examination of play calling and players strengths and weaknesses. I am not that smart of a football guru and I really don’t know much about zone read; inside zone; 4-3-4 defenses; etc. Just enough to be dangerous. I leave position assessments and play calling analysis to others.
• Not an in-depth analysis of the Cat’s strengths and weaknesses and how they should execute their game plan on even given week or what exactly they need to do the following week. I do provide overviews.
• Not focused just on the Cats in terms of the details. I leave that to excellent Bobcat focused podcasts and many posts by fans more knowledgeable than me.

What PTTP is:
• An aggregation of articles; podcasts; and game footage from knowledgeable journalists, podcasters, writers and influencers. PTTP includes my thoughts and musings on playoff positioning; seedings; strength of schedule, etc. I try to listen to 3-5 podcasts a week about other conferences and general FCS game summaries as well as read 5-15 articles a week as well as watch 3-5 Big Sky and/or FCS games each Saturday (at least skim some of the important games that might be on ESPN +).
• A synopsis of other teams; their rankings and strengths; how teams in the playoff hunt did and how it might affect the Cats in the playoff hunt.
• A weekly set of statistics from the top teams with regard to overall ranking as well as offensive and defensive rankings in the FCS relative to the Cats.
• A collection of odd factoids and statistics that may or may not have any relevance to the Cats making the playoffs or their seeding. Such tidbits like last year’s revelation that getting picked #1 in the conference by the Media is almost a guarantee your team will not end up Big Sky champion. Only three times in last 14 years (give or take) has the preseason favorite won the conference title.
• My goal is to understand the best way for the Cats to win the Big Sky title; get a high seed in the playoffs and get to the national championship.
• Occasional ramblings; predictions; evaluations; and random thoughts regarding performances of The Cats; other Big Sky teams and the top teams in the FCS.

Weekly Components: Typically, each week will contain most but not all of these assorted topics. Some of them will not start from week 1 but later in the season when enough data is available.
1) Who was Impressive and who was not in last week’s game:
Look at the top ranked teams and how they did on that particular Saturday.
2) A Summary of last week’s games in the Big Sky
3) Who we want to lose each week.
As the season progresses, which teams do we want to win and lose in order to improve The Cats overall seeding (of course, assuming Cats don’t go 12-0 and win every game by 2 or more scores.)
4) Big Sky Game predictions for the following week are based on nothing but random feelings and a few statistics.
5) As we get further into the season, playoff seeding and win/loses are tracked for the Cats and and other contenders
6) Chart of Offense/Defense rankings
a. Top FCS
b. Big Sky
7) Aggregate Rating System chart – after week 3 or so weeks. (The CAT-P!)
8 ) Overview of this week’s game for the Cats.

THE FCS ELITE

This week will be a shorter write up due to lack of any previous games. Lets jump right into an argument about who are the top tier teams in the FCS!

A lot has been said on various podcasts and articles that there are three groups of top FCS teams. This presupposition has been forwarded by Zach Mckinnell; Sam Herder and Craig Haley to name a few. There premise is that there is an elite group of teams who are heads and shoulders above the rest of the FCS. This elite group is made up of only four teams: SDSU; NDSU; MSU and UM. Herder says these are the only teams who year in and year out consistent enough and strong enough to get to the Natty. No rebuilding times; maybe not even reloading; just steady and really good every year.

The second tier is a set of challengers that is fairly consistent but has some teams moving in and out. This includes teams like Idaho, Sac State, Villanova, SIU, Delaware, Incarnate Word, and such. This is about 7-10 teams and one of them could find themselves in the semi-finals. But maybe only one exception a year.

The third tier is the teams sitting at about 13th or 14th in the polls through the Top 30. Good teams but not built to dominate or challenge for the top spots in the FCS. This group has teams moving in and out on a yearly basis and they are not contenders for the semi-finals much less the Natty.

I wanted to test out this premise. Is it really true these four teams are consistently the elite in the FCS? To evaluate the situation, I had to choose some measuring sticks and time limits. Bobby Hauck’s comments notwithstanding, it really doesn’t make any sense to go back in time very far. I choose the last 4 years as a simple time limit not including the Covid season which I eliminate in all of my statistics. I look at the 2019, 2021, 2022 and 2023 seasons.

Next I simply used the final poll rankings and a collection of subsets. From the chart, you can see I collected the final position of any team that was ranked in the Top 10 at the end of any of these four years. Then I recorded what rank they had in each of the other years. For example, Furman was #7 in 2023. I then recorded their position in every other year: 2019; 2021 and 2022.

To provide some sort of ranking system, I summarize how many times each team appeared in the Top 25, the Top 10 and the Top 5. Next, I provided an average for appearances in all three categories. This method obviously rewarded those teams that landed in the Top 5 or Top 10 more often but that was my intent. If you only get in the Top 5 once in a four-year period, you are likely not dominant. The net result was not surprising but reaffirmed the FCS gurus.

NDSU had a perfect score of 4.0 meaning they ranked in the Top 5 every year. SDSU and MSU tied for second at 3.667 which reflects that each team missed the Top 5 one time in four years. Finally, the fourth ranked team was UM at 2.667. The Gris score was a full point below the other three teams but still higher than number 5 which was Sac State at 2.333. From that spot on, there is a greater disparity and no other team scored higher than 1.667.



This elite 4 dominance can also be seen that these four teams are the only current FCS team who took part in a natty in the last four years (JMU being the final team in 2019). So, it appears by these measures, NDSU, SDSU, MSU and UM are set apart from the rest of the FCS. Will that continue? Is it significant enough to call these four teams Elite?

A few other interesting factoids from this exercise:

• Only three teams have multiple appearances in the top 5 – NDSU, SDSU, MSU.
• The Elite 4 are all in the top 6 in attendance in the FCS (I do not include the SWAC as many HBCU’s have outsized attendance averages based on long historical factors.)
• The gap shows that many teams have been in the top 5 or top 10 once but don’t show any staying power.

Tommy and the “word not be mentioned”

When it comes to The Cats and their ceiling this year, everyone who is anyone says on their podcast or in their write-ups that Montana State is top contender for the Natty with one warning: IF Tommy can stay healthy. Whether it is Sam Herder of Hero Sports; Zach McKinnell of FCS Central or Colter Nuanez of ESPN Radio-Missoula. The drumbeat is the same. There is no Big Cat; Little Cat. It all relies on Tommy. There is no backup QB who is going to pull the Cats out of the fire if Tommy goes down. See Sam Herder’s “10 Most Valuable FCS Players in 2024” https://herosports.com/fcs-10-most-impo ... 2024-bzbz/

This year Tommy is listed as Preseason First Team All-Big Sky and second team All-American. He finished last year as the 4th highest PFF rated QB in the FCS. He is a senior, the true leader of the team and one outstanding player. Given all the mention about staying healthy, I decided to look at how his injuries of the last few years have affected playing time. I started counting during Tommy’s freshman year when he took over for Matthew McKay during the playoffs. This is the point he began playing quarterback. I looked at every game he played and every game he was injured and did not play. I counted late game injuries as half of a game.

As you look over the chart below , I was astounded. I know Tommy was injured 4 times in the last three years (NDSU, EWU; SDSU; NDSU). However, when I looked at the actual numbers, I found Tommy missed 28% of all games in the last three seasons and he missed games in every single season. Now, I do NOT believe in jynx’s or karma or bad juju but I can say that is one scary number.

Why was Tommy injured so often? I can only guess based on what I read and observe others to say. It is likely a combination of 3 or 4 factors. 1) Our run-oriented offense puts a lot of miles on every runner including the quarterback who is a key part of that process. This has led to injuries to Tommy, Sean, Davis, Elliot, Humphries and White last year – all in one year. It is the nature of the beast. 2) Tommy is a true competitor and he pushes himself to the limit in every game. He goes for that extra yard even at his own expense. Instead of taking a knee, Tommy cuts back inside and fights for 2 or 3 more yards. 3) Other teams key on Tommy and his running ability much more so than the do the average QB. This results in more tackles/more pile-ons/more hard stops in my opinion. This constant pounding takes a toll.



So here is the $64,000 question. How likely is it Tommy will not miss a game or multiple games this season? I understand football is a game of bounces and not always predictible. SDSU’s Gronowski played the last two years with no injuries that cost him game time. However, the end of the spring 2021 season resulted in an injury that caused him to miss the entire 2022 season. NDSU’s Cam Miller seems to be built like a brick and he has not missed a game in three years as the NDSU starter.

What can be done to mitigate the risk? This is a summary of some other posters and Coach Vigen’s interview on Media Days. 1) Give more carries to the running backs. I know various posters have shown Tommy does not have excessive carries in a game but I think it is not the pure number of carries. He has to run often come game time. 2) As coach Vigen has asked of Tommy, “do the ordinary more often.” Slide when it looks like you will take a big hit; step out of bounds without trying for the two extra yards; use your check down receiver rather than taking off on a scramble. 3) Sit Tommy down sooner in the early season blow-outs. Sure, it will lower the Cats offensive statistics (points scored/total yards/Yards per play) but it will be necessary to keep him healthy. 4) Finally, ask for some of the luck of the leprechaun and just hope he does not get caught in a tough situation.

My overall summary is while I have my season tickets and I have mostly bought into the hype; the odds are not with us on Tommy not missing a game or two or more. I had hoped Coach Vigen would have gone out for a portal quality backup QB last spring. My personal view, unsubstantiated and unverified, is neither Wilson or Reid will be able to successfully take the reins from Tommy if he goes down for 3 or 4 games. Depending on the place in the schedule we might lose 2 or 3 of those games. Now, this may seem like blasphemy or negative thinking. But every writer and journalist mentions Tommy’s injuries and factors it into their playoff seeding. Four serious injuries in three seasons and a total of 8 and 1/2 games missed out of 30 games. Here’s praying this is the year of good luck!

HYPE or FACT – Cats 13.5 favorites with New Mexico

Our final topic does a quick look at the Cats first opponent – University of New Mexico. An enormous amount of verbiage has been talked about on the net about how strong MSU is and how weak UNM is as a team. Almost everyone on any reputable web site has Cats as the predicted winner. McKinnell and Herder both think the Cats will and should be UNM and their final record could easily be 11-1 or 12-0 come end of the year.

While my wife calls me a Pessimist; I prefer the kinder, gentler term “Realist”. I just don’t like to be taken in by all the hype and promises of a great season and going undefeated and winning the Natty. A little over the top. However,

1) Why the Cats Can Win
a. We have a really good team; everyone thinks so and it sure looks at it based on nearly every measure. Our team last year was better than the final ranking of 9. WE literally one play away in three games from being 11-1 and going on to South Dakota to whup on them and get right back to the semi-finals. I agree the basis for a talented team is there.

b. Other Big Sky teams beat poor MTN West – While the Cats have not had great success at the FBS level, other Big Sky teams have regularly beat up on Mountain West Cellar Dwellers. Last year, Idaho beat Nevada 33-6 and two years ago Sac State beat Colorado State 41-10. If these teams can do it, so can the Cats!

c. New coach/New line up – New Mexico was really bad last year. They now have a new coach and over 60 transfers from the portal. They certainly are in the rebuilding mode and they really have no record of an consequence. Bronco Mendenhall is a great coach but the cupboards are bare and there is a long rebuilding road ahead.


2) Why the Cats might lose
a. No idea of their offense – The UNM practices have been closed and we don’t know what offensive schemes or even who are the starters and what can they do together. The offense will have had almost no time to jell and get comfortable with each other

b. No idea of their defense – Ditto/ we don’t have any idea what they are drawing up for us to face when we are on offense. UNM has the element of surprise for the first quarter for sure.

c. Missing 27% of our offensive starters – This is important. We are missing 27% of our offense on the first game (Davis, Reed, Perkins). None of those men will play a down for the next 2-4 weeks in my opinion. We might see Davis on 5 October but I don’t think we will see Perkins until later in October. All three of these players are Big Sky all-conference or could be all-conference this year. Next man up is the motto but we have 4 of our top linemen from last year gone to the portal or injury.

d. Weather will matter – Lots of us like to think playing in the cold in December is a huge advantage. But I contend teams can get warm but it much harder to cool down. Playing in 92% heat on Saturday is just not the same as practicing up here in the low to mid 80’s. Sure our team is well-disciplined and will be in great shape. However, the heat could take its toll.

e. Bronco is a new coach/Motivation based on the line. I am sure Bronco has the odds posted on the locker room wall and reminders his players each day that they are not going to roll over. They will be hungry to impress and over play in their first game.

f. Lack of success – Idaho/Wyo/SMU. We have had many winnable FBS games in the last 5-12 years but they all have escaped our grasp. We don’t have the FBS record of a NDSU but frankly we don’t even have the track record of a Sac State who has won 2 out of 5 FBS games in the last 4 years.

The game could be a lot closer than people want. I would not be surprised by a close loss by the Cats. However, lest you think I am a fair-weather fan; I have dished out my $700 for the charter and given up a full weekend day on one of the last open weekends of the summer. I will be sitting in the hot New Mexico sun cheering and yelling and believing in the best!

Go Cats.

[catscat]

Thanks and cheer loud. I'll be listening.

[catscat]

Thanks and cheer loud. I'll be listening.

[CodyCat]

Gosh, to beat a dead horse, I just dont see the heat affecting MSU more than UNM. I just dont. These guys are 18-25. They will be just fine.

[Catprint]

Week 1 – Part 1 - What a Whirlwind
I want to get this posted Wednesday night before the Thursday games. So, I decided to break the post into two parts. There will be an addendum on Thursday or Friday. But still early in the season so not much to pontificate about.

Tornado in more ways than one

I was at the New Mexico game and there it was a whirlwind in more ways than one. I have read a number of articles; listened to both coaches; some players and then at least 4 podcasts with their views on the game. Overall, with a couple of exceptions, I agree with the general consensus. Here is my summary.

1) The weather was a factor but it wasn’t the temperature; it was the wind. It was almost miraculous in the way the wind shifted. In the 3rd quarter it was blowing from our left to right and definitely affected the UNM field goal although only minorly. However, the wind shifted 180 degrees early in the fourth quarter. The wind was wicked and clearly affected the trajectory of the ball. We have had hats, coats, bottles and cans flying through the stands in the fourth quarter. It was the worst wind I have ever seen in a game.

2) The Bobcats offensive line did indeed push New Mexico all over the field; especially the second half.

3) Nearly all the podcasters talked about the Cats trying to be balanced right off the get go and did too much passing. Then in the second half, the Cats just “ran the damn ball”. However, the numbers really don’t show that. It is just perception. Here is the first five drives vs the entire game.
a. Drive 1 – 5 plays; 3 runs; 60%; fumble
b. Drive 2 – 5 plays; 3 runs; 60%; punt
c. Drive 3 – 5 plays; 2 runs; 40%; downs
d. Drive 4 – 6 plays; 4 runs; 66%; touchdown
e. Drive 5 – 10 plays; 5 runs; 50%; touchdown
f. Game – 79 plays; 47 runs; 59%.
As the numbers show, we ran 59% of the time for the entire game which is exactly what we did on the first 2 drives when everyone said, “the Cats passed too much”. In fact, we ran the ball on average the same amount at the beginning of the game as we did the whole game. Our MO is to run about 60-65% of the time.

4) The secondary was not impressive in my mind. Just one game but this group has been our weakness for years. A couple of opportune drops certainly assisted our win. But overall, I am not quite sure why New Mexico played so conservatively in the fourth quarter. I think it was a product of overthinking by Bronco Mendenhall and playing not to lose. Will see what the weeks ahead bring but I have some trepidation about playing teams like EWU and ISU that will want to light up the field.

5) Tommy’s performance overall was very good but it was outstanding at the end of the game. And the last two minutes was an electric environment. The Cat crowd was totally into the flow and the excitement and vibe was as strong as at any home game I have attended in recent memory. It was almost like everyone could sense where the game was going and it was inevitable. Did that affect the outcome in any manner? Don’t really know but the noise and energy clearly could be seen on the field, on the sidelines and in the stands. Like there was a flow to the energy and it would only go one direction with one result. It was simply indescribable. Might have been the best game I have attended in years.

Path to the Natty – through the #1 and #2 seed

I covered this subject in depth last year but wanted to raise its ugly head at the beginning of this season. The bottom line? It is nearly impossible to win the FCS championship unless you get the #1 or #2 seed. I have updated the chart from last year but without a difference in the result. In the last 20 years, only 3 teams have won the Natty with road victories during the playoffs ((Yellow is champion with no road games, Champion with road victories in blue) and two of those teams were JMU. In 7 out of the 20 years, the runner-up got to the Natty with at least one road game. With only 15% success rate of winning the Natty on the road in the playoffs, the primary focus has to be to get one of the top two seeds.



Sure, no team (other than SDSU now or NDSU in the last 10 years) is going to publicly state their primary goal is to get the #1 or #2 seed in the playoffs. It just sounds too arrogant, especially early in the season. But the reality is entirely different. Every coach and every player know the road to the Natty goes right through home field advantage in the playoffs. Last year was no exception as #1 SDSU and #2 UM were in the Natty. Now of course, the #1 and #2 seeds go the best teams or so we might think. Take for discussion, MSU got the #4 seed in 2022 and there was lots of controversy about whether MSU should have been #3. With Sac State as #2 seed getting upset, MSU would have had the semi-final at home against Incarnate Word. No guarantee of a win but playing at home in December against a pass happy team from Texas might have been a different story than playing SDSU on the ice rink.

Keep this stat in mind as the season progresses. This stat is part of the reason for our “Who we want to Lose” segment each week.


WHO WE WANT TO LOSE
It is a tad bit early in the season for our “Who we want to Lose” segment but hey why wait for a good thing! It is difficult to see the path forward to the playoffs this early. What teams will rise to the top to challenge for a top seed? There are always surprises - always one to three teams, no writer or FCS expert sees coming on strong. So, this week, we will look at some of the key games where there is a reasonable chance that who we want to lose could lose. Plus, we look at top teams that very may well lose in FBS games but I still want to highlight them because their loss is at least a preferred outcome.

1) SDSU @ Oklahoma State
While generally I am a supporter of FCS victories over FBS teams, I will make an exception here. An SDSU victory at #17 Oklahoma State would solidify SDSU as the team to beat this year and show with all the losses to graduation last year they have not taken a set backwards. And it could happen. But for the Cats sake, we need the SDSU 29 game winning streak to end!

2) NDSU @ Colorado
Ok, so I make another exception. While I wish no ill will on any FCS team; there are two FCS teams I am less than thrilled with winning any games. One goes unnamed and the other is NDSU. If NDSU pulls out a victory against the Sanders family on Thursday evening, there will be no end to the Bison chant and Bison train. I honestly don’t know if the Bison deserve the #2 or #3 spot, they have in most polls but I don’t want them to win. Bison to Lose!

3) Sac State @ San Jose State
Torn on this game. Sac State has an outstanding record in the last few years against FBS teams. It seems they just draw the right teams at the right time. San Jose State is not very good but it might be better than New Mexico. That said, as I will write about in my Big Sky overview later in the week Sac State is somewhat an unknown this year. Defense is suspect and we don’t know if Kaden Bennett will burn up the opponents like he did so often last year. So just for old times sake, Sac State to lose.

4) Youngstown State @ Villanova
Part of a yearly controversy with FCS playoff seeds is whether the MVFC and the Big Sky are far superior to the CAA, Southern or Southland conferences. The answer lies in non-conference games early in the season. It is to the Cats advantage to have Big Sky and MVFC teams win their games over CAA, Southern or Southland conference teams (Go Portland State!!). Because parity in the conferences will result in fewer Big Sky slots in the playoffs. Besides, Villanova is a possible outside contender for the natty so losing to a so-so Youngstown State will be a huge blow. Might happen? Fairly unlikely but we want Villanova to lose.

5) Holy Cross @ Rhode Island
An outlier but with Holy Cross a perennial East Coast powerhouse and two years ago challenging for a high seed, we would like to see them have a mediocre season. What better way than to lose a middling CAA team like Rhode Island. Some years the Rhodies are good and some years they fail to impress. Maybe this is the year they rise to the top. Holy Cross lost their top ranted QB (to UNLV) and their coach as well. But they still seem to reload. Go with Holy Cross to Lose

6) There are a ton more FCS/FBS games but not much chance for an upset so I expect most, if not all Big Sky/MVFC teams to lose their FBS game. It will be week two before we start to see some significant amount of FCS vs FCS out of conference games and see how teams stack up.

Part 2 will be a look at the Cats game vs Utah Tech; peruse other Big Sky games this weekend and provide some early thoughts on Big Sky teams and the possibility of each of them making the playoffs for each team. Plus, I will project the Cats season based on nothing but a hunch. Just so we can track it each week.

[Prodigal Cat]

Yeah.... As much as I cheer for FCS teams and I probably will for the xDSU's this weekend, if they both lose by multiple scores it would be good for the Cats. If one wins there is a path where the Cat's could be undefeated and still be the 3rd seed. Say SDSU beats OK St but then lose to the Bison in Fargo and both finish 11-1, i wouldn't put it past the committee to keep them #1 and #2. They would be wrong and argue that the Cats wouldn't have a win like those 2 had but they did it in '22.

[Catprint]

Path to the Playoffs – Week 1 – Part 2: Big Sky Teams

Took advantage of late kickoff to post early Saturday afternoon. Didn’t cheat and look at any Big Sky scores however!!

Big Sky teams analysis

In general, the consensus belief is there are six Big Sky teams vying for a playoff spot: MSU, UM, Idaho, Sac State, Davis and Weber. Here is my first hot take summary of all the articles and podcasts discussing the Big Sky and which teams will be competitive. Look at the teams in reverse order of likely importance. As the year goes on, I will update where these Big Sky teams fit into the playoff field.

Weber State:
Weber seemed to be set at the top of the Big Sky for many years as a premier program. After winning a least a share of the Big Sky Title for three years (17,18 and19), the Wildcats have not sniffed a title. After starting last season at 3-5, Weber’s Richie Munoz, as the mid-season starter, seemed to catch fire. This change resulted in three straight wins including over Idaho. There is definitely an unknown aspect to who Weber will be this year. Perhaps the most difficult part of a successful season for Weber is they have road games at Washington; UM; Idaho and Sac State. This is murders row and could leave Weber at 8-4 even if they pull out all their other games. However, Munoz showed flashes of success even if Weber’s defense was not exactly the iron curtain of old. My feeling is Weber is the sleeper team in the Big Sky this year and it all depends on their defense lands on the field.

Sac State:
As I write this, Sac State has fallen to San Jose State 42-24. Sac started ok but did not look impressive with Kaiden Bennett sporadic with two interceptions and some questionable throws. Sac is ranked anywhere from 6th to 12th among polls and various writers. I can see Tau-Tolliver is a strong runner and the Sac offense is at least above average. However, their defense does not seem to have any improvement from last year even with Andy Thompson’s reputation. However, it is only one game and against an FBS foe even though San Jose is ranked in the bottom 25% of the Mountain West. I think Sac State could be a contender or could fade. Just too many questions in my mind.

UC Davis:
I couldn’t agree more with all the FCS experts who felt UC Davis was cheated out of an At Large playoff spot last year. After beating Sac State in the last game of the season and having the same record as Sac State and finishing ahead of Sac in the Big Sky standings, they were left out of the field. Sac lost 3 of their last 5 games of the season while UC Davis won 4 of their last 5. So UC Davis had the head to head victory, the momentum and a better conference record, and you are left out of the field? Makes no sense. So what of this year? It is a simple formula – Larison healthy? UC Davis can be the third or fourth Big Sky team in the playoffs. The Davis schedule is favorable with no Weber State or Idaho and Montana state at home. I will go out on a limb and say Davis finishes right around the Top 10.

Idaho
Perhaps the team with the biggest set of unknowns, Idaho has lost all of their weapons on the offensive side of the ball yet there seems to be a ton of positive vibes with the team, the fans and the FCS polls. Idaho finds itself ranked 7th to 10th in my list of polls and voters even though Hatten, Woods, McCoy and Chavez are all gone from Idaho. Listening to a podcast with Sam Herder talking to journalist covering Idaho, it seems no one is concerned that Gevani McCoy is gone because the team has full faith in Jack Lane who started in one game last year. Jason Eck is certainly an entertaining coach but I need to see a strong year without all the weapons that Idaho had last year. I think the Vandals are the most likely contender to be a pretender!

Montana
I am not going to pontificate much about the Gris yet. Every writer, every poll, every podcast (with a couple of exceptions) have Gris as the Big Sky Champion and #2 or #3 in the country. The biggest question mark is who is the QB and will the sharing of duties as outlined by Hauck really work? It is obvious the Gris will be good and they have the absolutely easiest schedule. Their non-conference has limited challenges (similar to the Cats) and then in Big Sky they avoid Idaho and Sac State; get Weber and UCD at home. The only tough game on their schedule is the Brawl. Need a few games to know how strong the Gris really will prove to be.


One Last sleeper – Eastern Washington – Eastern won their opener against Monmouth 42-21. Their next three are vs Drake, SELA and Nevada. It is not unreasonable to think Eastern could start 4-0. However, the problem is the schedule at the start of Big Sky play. Eastern plays UM, Sac, Davis, Idaho, and The Cats. These are the top 5 teams in the Big Sky. Maybe Eastern is 4-5 after these games. Or just maybe, they pull out two victories and are sitting at 6-3 with three easy games at the end. They could be 8-4 or even 9-3!
The Cats


Big Sky Games this week of any interest:

Missouri State @ Gris – Not much here. I don’t get how a team like MOST can be moving up to FBS. They will be at the bottom of Conference USA for years, maybe a decade or longer. Other than one or two years, they are usually near the bottom of the MVFC. Maybe they can make the game close if the Gris overlook them and fall asleep in the second half: 31-10 Gris

UCD @ California – Now, what conference is California in again? Traveling across the country every other week. Sounds like fun. UCD might make it close for a while. If Larison has a banner day and Hastings plays really well, they might surprise the Bears. But seems to be an outlier. 34 -17 Bears

Weber @ Washington: I guess this week is Big Sky against the remnants of the Pac 12. This is not a good match up. Surprised if Weber can keep UW under 40. But interesting to see what Munoz can do against a good defense. UW 44, Weber 10

PSU @ Washington State: Honestly, Washington State is simply an unknown. They lost their star QB to Florida and they raided the portal because everybody who was any good, jumped ship. Still, PSU isn’t going to put up a huge challenge. 35-7, WSU

ISU @ Oregon State and Idaho @ Oregon: We will cover the Idaho’s vs the Oregon’s in one write up. The Big O will sweep these games. I am interested in seeing whether Idaho can keep Oregon under 50 points. It will say something about whether Idaho has a decent defense although the match up is so bad for the Vandals. I wouldn’t make much of it. I actually think ISU might do better against Oregon State because ISU has a strong passing offense. And Oregon State is in the same spot as WSU – big unknown. Big O 57; Big I 13; Little O: 34; Little I: 14



Bobcats Schedule and Predictions

So here is my week 1 prediction of The Cats full season. It pretty much mirrors a number of beat writers’ predictions with the Cats losing 1 or 2 games. I won’t predict a 12-0 season this early because it does not feel right. I think going 12-0 is a tall task for any team and it is way too early in the season. We have a very favorable schedule and the three toughest teams play in Bobcat Stadium. We will use the chart as a guide for each week’s review.

Each week, I will update the chart. Once the Big Sky conference play starts in earnest, I will chart and predict all of the games with some limited analysis regarding how those games affect playoff seating.



Bobcats vs Utah Tech

Lots of good posts regarding the Utah Tech game. There is not much to add other than the obvious. Cats are currently 22.5 point favorites. What do we want to see in the game?

• No post New Mexico letdown.
• No injuries (Doesn’t seem we will get back any of the key injured players back until conference play starts – Reed, Davis, Perkins and Polidore…
• Lots of rushing plays
• Tommy has few designed runs in the game.
• Utah Tech limited success on the ground
• Defense puts some decent pressure on the quarterback
• Win by 24-31 points
• Starters sit by end of 3rd quarter.
• Jordan Reed and Chance Wilson both get some time under center.

Next Week we will look in depth at what I believe are the other expected challengers to receive a Top Seeds in the FCS playoffs: SDSU, NDSU; Villanova; USD; and Chattanooga. Also, will start to look at a handful key games that impact the playoff seeding. Need more than a small sampling of games under our belt to look at how teams stack up.

[Catprint]

Week Two – Release of the Catprint Aggregate Total Poll (CAT-P)

Due to personnel shortages at work and family commitments, I had far less time to post a week two summary. So, I am putting off my in-depth look at the top teams until next week. Besides, the wife is gone all day Sunday so what better way to make use of that time than do a more extended post. I will, however, introduce the first rendition of the CAT-P

Lots of FBS vs FCS games last week so its makes it difficult if not impossible to gauge which teams were really impressive since there were NO FCS over FBS wins. In addition, teams that looked unimpressive might have simply had a bad match up with a particularly good FBS team (think SDSU vs. Oklahoma State) and we really didn’t learn much about how good or bad the FCS team might be. But giving it my best shot anyway. My list is a summary of games I watched; read about; and listened the FCS experts (Herder, Marshall, Haley, etc.) on who they thought excelled last week. First, we start with who was impressive.

Who was Impressive

• Idaho – I watched a sizable portion of this game and Idaho was lights out on defense. Consider this little factoid. Other than a loss to #1 Georgia and squeaker of a win to #10 Utah, the least amount of points Oregon has scored in the last two years, was 31. Idaho held them to 24 points. In Oregon. In their opener. When Oregon was something like a 49.5-point favorite. It was humiliating for Oregon and exhilarating for Idaho. Kevin Marshall of FCSNation Radio said “Idaho front 7 may be the best in the FCS.” This could very well be a significant challenge for the Big Sky throne. The downside is the broken collarbone of Jack Layne, Idaho’s starting QB. Will see how Idaho weathers the 4-6 weeks while he is out.

• Eastern Washington – Will Eastern be the sleeper I presented last week? Well, the very first game certainly might support that conclusion. Monmouth is not exactly a current powerhouse but they are decent mid-level CAA team. They are head and shoulders above a Utah Tech. Eastern’s pass offense was prolific and Chisom (SIC) was something else at receiver. I think EWU will score points against any and all Big Sky teams. The question is whether Eastern’s defense can slow a good offensive team down. The Monmouth victory is too small of a sample.

• NDSU- Colorado is all hype but I will tell you NDSU looked really, really good. I think it is foolish to underrate Cam Miller in his last year and NDSU as a whole. I expect them to be 11-1 or 10-2 by the end of the year and be in the Top 4. I also thought the front 7 of NDSU was exceptionally good and running against them will not be easy for any FCS team even given the anemic run offense of Colorado.

• Central Arkansas – UCA has been sitting around #9 or #10 in almost every poll. However, the computer ratings (Massey, Congrove, etc.) have UCA much lower in strength. But we saw against FBS Arkansas State that UCA can move the ball up and down the field and their defense is stout.

Who was NOT Impressive

• Gris – Won’t say much here as everyone has likely heard about the game and very close outcome. However, two points need mentioning. One, Gris were without their top three players – Junior Bergen; Cole Grossman and Riley Wilson. It is unclear if they were injured or exactly the situation. This certainly impacted their play. Second, the Gris started really slow last year and the two-quarterback situation has lots of negatives. I expect them to switch to only one QB sooner than last year. Interesting to note that both of the Gris QBs from last year are starting at FCS schools this year - McDowell at McNeese State and Vidlak at Stephen F. Austin. They will get to face each other in another week.

• UIW – Putting up only 28 points against Northern Colorado and only gaining 48 more yards on offense and only 205 yards passing is not good. UNC is not a good team and I think we may find that UIW is not as well. They may very well be shredded by SDSU this weekend. I am not high on them at all.

• UAlbany – Last year’s surprise semi-final team was lame against a NEC team (Long Island). UAlbany trailed most of the game and only one by 6 points. The Danes only had 255 yards of offense and 90 yards on the ground. The pundits said UAlbany lost a lot of players. I expect them to be crushed by West Viginia and Idaho and start the season at 1-2 and drop out of the top 25.

Who we wanted to lose
1) SDSU @ Oklahoma State – GOT IT.
2) NDSU @ Colorado – GOT IT
3) Sac State @ San Jose State – GOT IT. Sac State looked like two different teams in the first and second half.
4) Youngstown State @ Villanova – MISSED IT. Nova looks strong.
5) Holy Cross @ Rhode Island – GOT IT


Who we want to Lose this week.
(Reminder – I only look at games that a) have some relevancy to playoff seeding and b) have some possible chance of happening. So, I do not include games like NDSU vs East Tennessee as there is no chance of an upset)
• New Hampshire @ Holy Cross – Holy Cross went down last week so it would be helpful if they bounce back and knock off New Hampshire, a potential contender in the CAA. New Hampshire to Lose
• Lafayette @ Monmouth – Not sure it matters but Lafayette to Lose
• Villanova @ Colgate – Nova’s schedule is weak the first half of the season and even weaker the second half. It is possible they could go 12-0 with only last week’s win over Youngstown State as a ranked win. That will present a conundrum for the committee. We want Nova to lose at every possible opportunity. There won’t be many. Maybe this week? Nova to Lose
• UIW @ SDSU – Both teams are ranked. Love to see SDSU start at 0-2. I can’t see UIW pulling off the upset in Brookings. But it is on the table although SDSU is a 23.5-point favorite. But SDSU to Lose
• SIU @ Austin Peay – How does this game matter? SIU is ranked #10 while Austin Peay is just outside the top 25 in most voters’ minds. What we would like to see is SIU do poorly early and then pull off an upset or two later in the season (like SDSU or NDSU). So SIU to lose.
• Idaho @ Wyoming – I feel bad for Idaho losing Jack Layne for weeks with a broken collarbone. He might be back around the time of the time they play the Cats. Can they take down a mediocre Wyoming team (99th in Sagarin)? Another mixed result. I actually think Idaho’s defense is so good they might pull this off. But we want them to lose. Idaho to Lose.
• Sac State @ Fresno State – Sac State to Lose
• Gris @ UND – Is there any debate here? Gris to lose


First Release of the CAT-P.

Earlier than last year, I put together my first release of the CAT-P (Catprint Aggregate Total Poll). This is the second year of the CAT-P. What I try to do is take a collection of national polls (Stats, Coaches, AGS); a group of computer-generated rankings (Sagarin, Massey, DR Ratings, Congrove) and the individual rankings of key FCS writers and experts (Haley, Herder, McKinnell, etc.). The reason is to provide some balance to the Stats Perform FCS poll and Coaches Poll which, while important to the playoff seeding, are heavily influenced by voters who spend little or no time studying, analyzing, and even watching FCS games. Typically, we will find that the individual writers have a far more accurate assessment of individual teams and are not afraid to move teams up or down in the polls rather than slot voters. The slot voters tend to say if Western Carolina is #10 in the poll and they lose to #20 UND, they move Western Carolina a couple spots down and UND only a couple spots up keeping the relative slots. The knowledgeable voters are more willing, especially in the early part of the season to see the polls as highly inaccurate and move teams more significantly based on their resume.

In general, I have also found that the computer rankings tend to give more weight to strength of schedule and to the underlying statistical strengths of teams. This tends to favor Big Sky and MVFC teams in general and the Cats in particular. Is the CAT-P scientific or technically more accurate? Hell no. But it is fun to collect the data and look at the variance. In addition, I only use teams in the Top 10 of the Stats Perform poll. When a team moves into the top 10, I add them to the CAT-P the following week. When a team moves out of the top 10, I still keep them in the poll until they become irrelevant like William and Mary did last year. I will also add some Big Sky teams like UC Davis and Weber when I have more data points. Also, I don’t give any team a score less than 30 if they are not in the top 25. Otherwise, the one outlier can really mess with the aggregate poll. So here we go..

First, I had struggled to get all the week one individual poll voters. I never did find Zach McKinnell’s and Craig Haley's votes. If they don't post them regularly, I may have to drop them. (If anyone knows where to find this info, let me know) Also, this year I added Brian McLaughlin, Stan Becton and Emory Hunt as individual voters back into the vote and dropped Izzo. This upped the total to 13 data points. Some weeks I will not find everyone’s rankings so I will adjust week to week. And I may add and subtract as needed.

If we look at the Cat-P, we do see the Cats move up to #2 - tied with NDSU which essentially matches our position in the Stats Top 25. The Top 8 in the Stats poll match the top 8 in the CAT-P. It only varies when you get to UCA which is 9 in the Stats poll but 10th in the CAT-P. This early in the season, there is not much variance particularly because of a) FCS vs FBS games and b) FCS vs DII games. Both of these tend to skew some of the computer polls vs others.

I grouped the teams into three tiers like I did last year. This is based on the CAT-P and their rankings. The first tier remains SDSU, NDSU, MSU and UM. They all have scores below 4.00. These are the elite teams and remain so for the time being. The second tier has scores around 5.8 to13. There are six teams in this tier. Finally, the third tier has scores between 16 and 21. You will see Furman, UIW and Richmond have scores hovering around 20. This is because the computer rankings all show these teams lower on the chart than do the voters. There are some voters like McKinnell and McLaughlin who do not see Furman, for example, as a top 15 team. This will all change next week.

The Cats got 8 First place votes in the Stats poll. Among the CAT-P individual voters, Becton, Hunt, and McLaughlin all ranked the Cats as the # 1 team. Deserved? Maybe but I think it is premature. SDSU is the defending champion; was ranked #1 in the preseason poll and had a decent game against OSU. I don’t really see any reason they should not be #1. Even though we have the only FCS vs FBS victory so far this year, the Cats have been uneven in both games and our schedule is pretty weak (as we will discuss early next week.)

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Big Sky Upcoming Games
Lots of FCS vs FBS matchups again this week – 5 of them.
• Cal Poly @ Stanford – doubt Cal Poly can even put up much of a fight. 30–40-point loss is in the cards.
• Northern Colorado at Colorado State – Ditto. UNC did ok against UIW last week but not sure UIW is really any good. I don’t see how Colorado State has any issues.
• Northern Arizona @ Arizona – NAU upset Arizona a few years ago (2021) but not happening this week. NAU did score a ton of points against NAIA Lincoln (CA) but I would not put any stock in that game.
• Sac State @ Fresno State – Winnable game but Fresno State is better than San Jose and Sac State needs to show better consistency on offense and a full game on defense. I would say 40/60 for a Sac State win.
• Idaho @ Wyoming – If Jack Layne was in the game, I would give Idaho an 80% chance of winning. Even with #2 running the show, the Idaho defense could be strong enough to hold down a weak Wyoming team and the Idaho offense could eek out enough points. If Idaho wins, that will say mountains about their defense and the Big Sky will be put on notice.

FCS vs FCS
• Drake @ Eastern – Eastern will start 2-0 this year and may very well break into the polls this week. I could see Eastern put up 50 points or more in this game. Efton Chism III is the real deal and he might have 200 yards receiving against a Drake team from the Pioneer Conference.
• PSU @ Weber – Seems odd to have a conference game so soon. There was a day when Big Sky schools would schedule each other early as a non-conference game. There have not been many of those matchups in the last few years and this game is a conference game. PSU’s schedule is simply unreal – Washington State; Weber, South Dakota, Boise State, Chattanooga, and UC Davis to open the first six games. Then finish against MSU, Sac State, Idaho and the Gris. Only two easy games on the schedule – ISU and UNC. This game will say a lot about both teams but I expect Weber will be the winner.
• Texas Commerce @ Davis – I expect Davis to win. I want to see how well Larison does against an FCS team. He only got 62 yards against Cal.
• Gris @ UND – Lots of podcasts and write ups about this game. Biggest take away is how weird things happen in the Alerus Center. Just an odd place to play. UND has won 37 consecutive home openers. That is an incredible streak. I really think it will end today if Gris have their top players back but I would not put money on it.

Bobcats vs Maine

I don’t have much to say about today’s Gold Rush game. Maine is a so-so CAA team at best and the expectation is high for the Cats first home game. I expect the offense to put together a complete game and the defense to be more than adequate. I always like to see a game around 55-10 but I would not be surprised if we pull starters earlier than normal both because of the scare with Tommy last week and the number of injuries to our offensive line. There are plenty of articles and posts about today’s game that cover the game. Here is my list of what I would like to see.

• 400 yards on the ground
• A decent passing game with no interceptions and 10-15 passes
• Defense gets a couple of sacks. One of my biggest concerns is that we have no sacks through the first two games.
• Chance Wilson gets some time to play. I really think Jordan Reed is not the next man up.
• We have a positive turnover ratio.
• Taco gets a touchdown!

Ok, next week is bye week but I will have a write up and have it early due to my wife’s trip. I still need to cover all the other top teams in the FCS and do some strength of schedule of the top FCS teams. GO CATS!

[Catprint]

WEEK 3 and 4 – Bye Week, CAT-P and First Half Schedule Concerns

So I didn’t post last week. Work was insane and I had to prepare for vacation. Maybe I will make it up this week with two posts. It is early Sunday morning (like 1:00 AM) and hoping to put together some thoughts and post before Monday Morning. Looks like I will make it.

FCS Surprises

After only three weeks of games (four games for a precious few), there were a huge set of ups and downs. Teams that were supposed to be really good laying an egg. Teams listed as bottom feeders suddenly rising to the top and then falling again. Top teams barely surviving. The FCS seems to be more competitive and more unpredictable than ever. I listened to 3 or 4 podcasts from the experts this week and there were are a lot of misses with regard to this week’s games. I don’t really believe there are four elite teams anymore. I wonder if there is more parity than ever before. We will see. Maybe this week was an aberration rather than a trend. This summary replaces my “Who was/wasn’t impressive” sequence since we are looking at two weeks and so much happened. Here are some take-aways in no particular order.

The Top Non-Big Sky Teams
• #1 SDSU looks great then not so great. SDSU holds off UIW and seems to show their dominance and strength in the trenches. They are able to crush UIW late in the game and pull away. Every anoints SDSU as the clearly the best team in FCS. Jimmy’s team follows up the ranked win with an anemic performance against DII Augustana. Turnovers; lack luster performance; nothing like the 40-50 point blow out predicted. Is SDSU susceptible to a challenge from NDSU, UND, SIU, USD or Illinois State?

• #2 NDSU is a killer at home against an inferior opponent Tennessee State holding their starters in the game till late in third / early fourth quarter to run up the score. This week they survived by typical NDSU luck against Eastern Tennessee State (ETSU). Their defense is shredded for almost 400 yards total offense and 270 yards rushing. ETSU goes up by 12 in the fourth quarter and stops the Bison with 4 minutes remaining and gets the ball. In my mind, ETSU commits the cardinal sin and runs it up the middle three straight times for basically nothing. NDSU gets the ball back, scores, then gets the onside kick and drives down and scores again in 50 seconds and wins. Great comeback but the Bison were 27 point favorites and looked pedestrian and beatable in their win.

• #5 Villanova escapes with a one-point victory over Towson who was predicted to be the middle of the pack team in the huge CAA pack. I guess more than the Cats have field goal problems. Townson missed TWO field goals in the last 83 seconds! What a bummer. We really needed Villanova to lose a game somewhere in the CAA schedule. This may have been the best chance – unless Nova is not as strong as thought.

• After climbing as high as #14, Richmond lays an egg against “powerhouse” Wofford. After being embarrassed at home, they come back and destroy Charleston Southern 38-0. Richmond may show back up in the polls.

• UND climbs to #10 after holding the Gris to almost no offense in the second half and then avoid the letdown the next week by demolishing Idaho State in the Alerus Dome as well – 52-14 before garbage time scores allow ISU two more scores. I would say appears UND will be a tough team to play at home. Still an unknown on the road against MVFC teams. Maybe they can join the “Elite.”

• Western Carolina was everyone’s favorite with the 3rd best QB in the FCS in Gonzales. But after losing to Campbell who was supposed to be a bottom feeder in the CAA, the Catamounts come back and beat #22 Elon. Gonzales throws for almost 300 yards and scores 3 times in the 2nd half. Which team is going to show up at WaGriz next week? Sure, hope it is the WCU from the Elon victory with some extra juice. Of course, we want the Gris to lose but WCU is sporadic at best.

• #7 Central Arkansas looks like the real deal in all three of their games. They keep climbing in the polls and could challenge for one of the top 4 spots based on their schedule. They were literally robbed in their only loss and easily would be ranked #5 or #6 if not. Watch for the Bears in the weeks ahead.

• #9 SIU and #12 UIW went at it in Carbondale and I honestly don’t know which team is better or if either team is good enough to challenge for a top seed in the playoffs. But if they played this game for 30 and 60 and 90 more minutes, I honestly don’t know who would win. The two teams combined for almost 900 yards of offense. Both of these teams still are a challenge to the status quo of the top teams. SIU as more of a surprise than anyone thought.

• #13 William and Mary were in a back-and-forth fight with the surprising Wofford team from the SoCon. Either W&M is not that good or Wofford really isn’t a bottom of the SoCon team this year. Both teams are 2-1. Both teams are hoping they can put together a string of 3 or 4 winds and climb up in the polls: W&M into the top 10; Wofford into the Top 20 or higher.

• Finally, rounding out the non-Big Sky Top 15, the SoCon is a mess with preseason favorite and initially Top Ten team Chattanooga sitting at 0-3 after dropping their conference opener to Mercer 10-3. This game had NO offense with neither team getting 300 yards. There were 14 punts; and 6 drives killed on downs; interceptions and missed field goals. Ultimately, the refs blew the whistle to put an end to each team’s misery. Chattanooga is moving out of the Top 15 and Mercer will move up.

Big Sky Teams
• #4 Idaho seems to be a freight train. Can’t accuse them of playing an undemanding schedule. Oregon, Wyoming and UAlbany. Get to the middle of the fourth qtr. with Oregon trailing by only one score; the same Oregon team that destroys Oregon State on the same field. Idaho’s defense is outstanding.

• Who are the Gris? Still remains to be seen. Crushing Moorehead State at home doesn’t exactly mean they are the team to beat in the Big Sky. After the record setting total offense of 34 yards in the second half against UND, Dr. Boobie and Mr. Hide came out with guns a blazing against a hapless Moorehead State

• Sac State is still number #11 in the polls even with a 0-2 record coming into this weekend. They play Nicholls who is a ranked team and absolutely destroys them on the field. So, Sac State is a team to be reckoned with in the Big Sky race. Or so it would seem even after two relatively lackluster FBS showings.

• UNC is a bit of an enigma.0-3 is what everyone expected but they have been done better in every game. Almost won on Saturday (beat by a last second 54-yard field goal) and they held their own against UIW for 3 quarters. Maybe not as bad as we all think.

• UC Davis played a resurgent Southern Utah who just came off an FBS win. Not sure what tot make of the game. Neither team looked particularly dominant although UCD came back from a 14-3 deficit to win. Hastings had a decent night but Larison was no monster in the backfield. The Aggies are 2-1 and SIU drops to 1-2. Both have an FBS loss. The difference in record is this game. Are the Aggies a top 15 team? The jury is out for now. Not enough data points and not enough consistency. They have an easy game against Utah Tech and then a barn burner against Idaho to open the conference season.

• Weber State and Eastern Washington both fell flat and lost. Hard to figure where they fit in the overall picture. Will wait another couple of weeks for more data points.

CAT-P – After Week 2

Here is the second CAT-P aggregate poll. The top 3 teams remain SDSU, NDSU and MSU. MSU drops slightly behind NDSU whereas last week they were tied. However, the gap to the 4th rated team grows which is now Idaho at 4.33. The Gris drop all the way to number 7. Idaho and the Gris basically switch spots. Nova and USD remain 5 and 6. The rest of the top 10 are UND, Central Ark. and SIU. Even though #10 in the Stats poll, our experts, and the computer polls but UND up to #7

Rounding out the top 15 are Sac state, UC Davis, Chattanooga, William & Mary and UIW. The biggest jump is Davis who is 15th in the Stats poll but 12th in the CAT P. This seems to be because of higher computer ratings and a couple of experts thinking very highly of UC Davis. I don’t expect the CAT-P to change much this week but Chattanooga will fall out for sure and likely so will UIW. I do think it is possible Idaho will rise and NDSU and Nova could fall based on their struggles against weak opponents.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


Bobcats First Half Schedule – What to make of it.

Some of us have noted the fairly weak schedule the Cats face in the first half of the season. Of course, over on eGris, there is lots of chatter about the weak schedule for the Cats. Same on X. I think we all see the Cats are not playing any top tier teams. At this point, it appears likely that none of the teams we play in the first six games will have winning records halfway through the season.

But I wanted to look at the schedule of the top teams in the FCS in the first half of the season. What was the best way to look at it? I decided to land on the Sagarin rating system because it tends to look at the current strength of teams compared to other teams and does not overly weight future games and strength of schedule. I realize it is somewhat an arbitrary choice and the numbers will change as we get to the sixth game but I think using other rating systems would provide comparable results. I simply took the current rank of all the teams that were playing one of my top teams. I then averaged the six scores. Mathematically simplistic? Yes. But easy to see without over analyzing. Why didn’t I just use Massey’s SOS? It is because I believe it looks into the future and determines the team’s full year SOS. That is how I understand it. Know differently? Let me know.

I chose to look at the Top 4 ranked teams in the MVFC (SDSU, NDSU, USD and SIU); the top 4 teams in the Big Sky (MSU, Idaho, UM, Sac State) and two other top teams (Villanova from the CAA and UCA from the UAC). A few things stand out.

CLICK TO ENLARGE


• The Average First Half “Basic Schedule of Schedule) was 155.78
• MSU has the weakest set of opponents in the first half of the season and it is not really close. The Cats’ average opponent is ranked 210th.
• The nearest team to the Cats is Central Arkansas at 188 average which is about 10% stronger.
• The toughest first half schedule is Idaho at 125. I don’t think we needed to do the math to see how tough of a schedule the Vandals face.
• The second toughest is SIU at 130.

What does this mean? Here are some thoughts

The Good:
• The Cats should be 6-0 at the midpoint of the season. Being undefeated is better than not.
• It allows us to build a solid poll position. Since there are so many slot voters, it will help us stay at the top of the polls.
• Allows us to rest lots of starters in numerous games keeping them healthy and fresh
• Gives time to get key starters back into the fold such as Reed, Davis, and Perkins.
• Hard to judge what coaches really need to change or adjust early on.

The Bad
• Not challenged early
• Overconfidence based on inferior opponents.
• No ranked wins in the first half of the season.
• Playing four currently ranked teams in six games.
• No rest down the stretch.

Of course, there is nothing we can do about our easy first half and nothing Idaho can do about their very difficult first half. We have to win the games. My concern is simply over confidence on the part of coaches, players, the media, and the fans. I cannot say with much certainty how good the Cats are until we play some high-quality FCS teams. Like it or not, the challenge is coming.

GO CATS!

[RockyBearCat]

great write up as usual. Thanks. I totally agree on the SOS. Cats need to use these as they have to get backups a lot of quality time and build that depth! Getting starters back for the tough run will be key.

[Catprint]

PART 2 Losers, Winners and the Big Sky

Who we want to Lose

This week we are starting to see some more significant games that have playoff seeding ramifications. Here are my “Who we want to Lose” games. These are games that could have playoff seeding consequences and there is a reasonable chance of the better team to lose.

Non-Big Sky Games
• Towson at NDSU – NDSU defense is suspect but they are still ranked #2. We need to see if the Bison have an FCS dent in their resume! They should have lost last week so we want Bison to Lose (don’t we always?)
• Drake at USD – Drake is winnable over USD? Three weeks ago, I would have said no way. But after Drake surprised Eastern, maybe they can do it again. USD to lose.
• Furman at W&M – So all Cats fans have learned to loathe W&M after their smack talk before the beat down 2 years ago. That said, Furman has underperformed this year. But we need someone to knock off W&M. King and Queen of England to Lose.
• SDSU at SELA – Did SDSU really play that badly against DII Augustana last week? Are the Jacks beatable? Is the reign over? Hmm…. I don’t think so. Odds are the Jacks will come out smoking and crush the Lions. However, SELA is no slouch and it is a road game so I have listed this game as an outside chance for the Jacks to Lose
• SEMO at SIU – This game had significant ramifications for the FCS playoffs and for bragging rights. SIU seemed like a legit Top 10 team. Then their QB – DJ Williams – hurt his hand and is out for the season. Suddenly SIU will have difficulty winning this game much less challenging SDSU, NDSU, USD and company. So, we want SEMO to Lose to keep their stock from rising higher since SIU will only fall off the charts the next few weeks.

Big Sky Games
• Western Carolina at Montana – So WCU has a hot shot QB in Cole Gonzales. However, they have been inconsistent so far. Hoping the Gris are overconfident and their secondary gets burned big time. Hard to believe Gris don’t crush WCU but Gris to Lose.
• Northern Arizona at UIW – This is a tough pick. In my next section, I see some promise in NAU this year. UIW is still an enigma in terms of whether they are really any good. But they have been in the conversation for top 10 game. Sure, they lost their last two games against ranked MVFC teams but they still have a strong offense. I really don’t think NAU will challenge for the Big Sky title so UIW to Lose.
• Idaho at Abilene Christian – This is somewhat an outlier. I find it hard to think AC is as good as they looked at their near win to Texas Tech in week 1. And what can we say about Idaho? Their defense at this point is one of the best in the country. We need them to lose a couple of games. The match up on Oct 12th will be huge. But maybe AC is for real. Vandals to Lose.

Big Sky Analysis

This is my take on Big Sky Power Rankings but more from a perspective of preseason expectations vs. where we are today.
• About Where We Thought – At or near the Top
o Cats – enough said for now.
o Idaho – This team scares me. The game on 12 October scares me. Maybe I am like Scaredy Squirrel on PBS! Rushing D is 20th in FCS after playing two FBS games and playing a ranked FCS game. Everyone seems to be high on their defense and on Jason Eck. They have a challenge in 3 of next 4 games – Abilene Christian, UCD and the Cats. Even NAU will not be a push over. Still on Oct 12th, it may be 6-0 MSU vs 5-1 Idaho. More in later weeks.
o Gris – D still looks tough. Jr. Bergen; Cole Grossman and Riley Wilson are back in the saddle from what I hear. Offense is still an unknown but Gris are fourth in the FCS in rushing at 246 ypg (after Davidson, MSU and Youngstown State). Their schedule is favorable, avoiding Idaho and Sac State.
o Sac State – Not entirely sure Sac State should still be in the top tier. They have been inconsistent in their first three games, although two of them were against FBS opponents. It looks like Kaiden Bennett may have lost his starting job. Need a few more data points but I think they will compete.
o UC Davis – Larison is starting slow and Hastings is not as sharp as he needs to be. Seem like they are about where people expected but not challenged much in first 5 Big Sky games – only Idaho will be a challenge.
• Trending Up
o Northern Arizona – Held their own against Arizona; even led at halftime. Beat up on an NAIA team and Utah Tech. Still NAU looks primed to finish higher than #9 in the conference. Let’s see what they do with UIW on the road. Maybe playing on the road is NAU’s thing this year or maybe they will need prayers to turn down the heat from UIW.
o UNC – They are 0-3. What do you mean trending up? UNC was winless last year and picked last in the Big Sky. Well, they held their own against UIW in the first half of that game; played Colorado State at an elevated level and should have beat Abilene Christian which is 19th in the Stats poll. Maybe UNC can win 2 or 3 Big Sky games?
• Trending Down
o EWU – Losing to Drake? Best is not the best. They have an unreal Big Sky schedule – Gris; Sac; UC Davis; Idaho and Montana State. Could be 0-5 before they can spit.
o Weber State – Loss to Lamar took the shine off their win over PSU but then PSU is trending down as well.
o PSU – Whooping Cough? Really?
• About where we thought at the bottom.
o ISU – Gave up 90 points in two losses. I think they will be about where they were voted.
o Cal Poly – At the bottom. Too bad the Cats don’t get to play Cal Poly. How the mighty have fallen.

Big Sky Games and Predictions (The Real Stuff) – Just for fun.

• EWU at Nevada – Sure hope Choate doesn’t choke. Should clean up on EWU. I doubt EWU can get 21 points. Nevada 38-17
• Idaho @ Abilene Christian – Man, I want to see an upset here. But Idaho’s defense if really, really good. ACU is not that good even if they took Texas Tech to overtime. I think the Vandals man handle ACU with the run game and a smothering defense. Idaho -31 – ACU 13
• NAU @ UIW – No one knows. I don’t even have a good guess. Is NAU really as good as they were against Arizona? Is UIW going to be 1-3 starting conference play. NAU 21 – UIW 22
• Southern Utah @ Idaho State – SUU is not great even though they have an FBS win. But Idaho State is worse. I don’t see a high scoring game but SUU pulls it out on the road. SUU 27-ISU 14
• Sac State @ Texas Commerce – Sac will sack the A&M under studies. Nothing to really see in Texas Commerce as a challenge to any Big Sky team. Sac 38- Texas Retail – 14
• PSU @ Boise State – The fans all hack up at half time thinking they have caught whooping cough. Boise 58 – PSU 13
• Utah Tech @ UCD – Utah Tech seems to want to take a hit from as many Big Sky teams as possible. UCD better put on a show or I wonder about their offense. UCD 38 – Utah Tech 10
• UNC @ SFA – Who is the worst team? This might be the “Loser Bowl Championship” for the western half of the FCS. UNC 12 – SFA 3
• Weber State @ NW State – That is like MSU’s game against MercyHurst. Weber best win by 30. Weber 44-NW State 6.
• WCU @ Gris – Ok, take away my bias and desire. WCU is not that good, even last year with their other offensive weapons. The Gris are going to eat them up and force WCU to throw because they won’t be able to run. Gris don’t have to score a lot what with 2 or 3 interceptions and 3-4 sacks. Big Sky Dominance over the Southern Conference will be clear here. WCU is not taking down the Gris at home. Gris 35 – WCU 17
• MercyHurst @ MSU – I tend to stay away from picking MSU games for fear of jinxing the game – even though I don’t believe in such things. The only issue here is how many points does Vigen want to win by and how long does he leave at least some 1st team players in the game. Even with two blowouts in a row, MSU has the 4th best defensive 3rd down conversion rate: 10th fewest first downs, 16th best overall defense and 21st scoring defense. If we had left first team players in both games… but we didn’t. I don’t see Vigen as a run up the score type of guy – even though last year we had 4 wins with 50 points or more and 4 such games the year before. Too many injuries to pad the stats – Cats 47 – Mercy 13

I will admit the 12-game season with 4 non-cons at the start with lots of either FBS games or less than idea FCS matchups – think Mercy-Hearst – makes it really difficult to gauge the playoff seeding and where teams will fit. But conference schedules start in earnest next week so there will be more substance for conversation.

Go Cats!

[Catprint]

WEEK 5 – Offensive and Defensive Stats; Big Sky play and More

All good intentions aside, it is Saturday morning and I am still writing my post. Maybe it is because work is keeping me really busy. Or maybe it is because when my son saw me driving the delivery van, he asked my daughter (who works for me), “What is Dad doing? Isn’t he like 80? He shouldn’t be doing heavy lifting!” Hmm, I am 67, in great shape, lowest weight since college but maybe I am getting old!! Sorry it is so late. I will do next weeks on Sunday and Monday.

This week I review who we lost and who we want to lose outside of the Big Sky; introduce our weekly aggregate offensive and defensive stats for the Top Big Sky and FCS teams; update the CAT-P and then look at the Big Sky games last week and the start of conference play. Assuming I can finish all this before noon. Wife is out of town but the list of Honey-Do’s is large and the game starts at 4. Good thing I have Sunday. Let’s get to it.

Who we wanted to lose

It was a bad week to knock off any contenders. Did not get a single upset.
• Towson at NDSU – MISSED IT.
o NDSU gave up lots of yards but they prevailed. Still unsure of their defense.
• Drake at USD – MISSED IT.
o Maybe Eastern is just that bad that Drake beat them then lost to USD by 39.
• Furman at W&M – MISSED IT
o Furman made a run at it. Was up 14-0 and only trailing 27-24 late in the fourth but could not close out.
• SDSU at SELA – MISSED IT
o Not really close. Jacks looked good. SELA is Bad
• SEMO at SIU – MISSED IT
o I think SIU without their QB (Williams) is likely to lose 2 or 3 more games in a row. They might be 2-5 before they know what hit them. Time Williams is back, too late.

Who we want to lose this week.

Lots of games to consider. I look at the Big Sky games separately. What we want to see if teams knock each other off so there is separation from the top 4. This makes it easier for Cats to get a higher seed. Doesn’t usually work out well but there has been more parity in the East Coast teams the last couple of years. A quick run through of the most important games

• Mercer @ Wofford – Both of these teams are a surprise. Wofford did not win a game last year until it played the battle of the bottom and beat winless The Citadel in week 11. Then they pulled an upset of Furman (which helped give us the 6th seed). Mercer’s defense through four games is off the charts. They are giving up 24 YPG! And not a fluke. The most any team has rushed on them is 57 yards. Simply unreal. We need Mercer to be knocked off early. MERCER to LOSE.

• SIU @ USD – Not sure what to make of this game. Seems possible for SIU to win but unlikely. Nonetheless, I think USD is a bigger threat to a top seed. USD to LOSE.

• NDSU @ Illinois State – This is a big one. NDSU sits at #2 in the Stats poll and #4 in the CAT-P. Illinois State is just outside the top 15. I think playing at home gives ISU a chance to win. NDSU defense is weaker this year. ISU is 15th in rushing yards and NDSU is 58th in rushing defense. There is a chance. NDSU to LOSE

• Lamar @ Central Arkansas – UCA is a team to be concerned about. They are playing really well; have the leading Walter Payton Award candidate (Powell) and the leading Buck Buchanan Award player (David Walker); and should be 4-0. As they will compete for a top 4 seed, we will want them to lose every time possible. and that won’t be often in the weak UAC. Maybe only 2 tough games all year after this one. UCA to LOSE.

• SELA @ Tarleton St – Tarleton is an up and comer. They could challenge for a seed. SELA could upset them. Possibly. TARLETON STATE to LOSE



CAT-P – Moving up

This week on the CAT-P, I have replaced Craig Haley’s vote with Timothy Rosario. Craig has not been posting his vote regularly. Timothy is cohost of “The BlueBloods” podcast with Zach Mckinnell. While Rosario is not a Stats voter, he does vote every week and posts it on www.redshirts.xyz/college-football/rankings/fcs/2024. He does his homework every week and he is not a shill for any team or conference and to give him extra credit, he is not a fan of the Bison – at least not this year.

Entering the CAT-P this week is SEMO, at #13 in the Stats Perform poll but number 14 in the CAT-P. A new team last week was the Mercer Bears currently at #13 in the CAT-P. Leaving the CAT-P this week is Southern Illinois who lost handily to that very same SEMO team. Otherwise not much movement. The Cats opened a slightly better hold on the #2 slot. NDSU remained #4, in my mind because the more informed voters see lots of issues with the NDSU defense. There are a variety of voters who have given first place votes to NDSU, MSU and Idaho. It also appears that if Idaho beats UC Davis this week, the surge to make them #1 will grow as their resume is the best. I understand the argument that you don’t get to choose your schedule (well only partially) but have to admit Idaho’s is a doozy. My reading of the tea leaves says there are two kinds of voters – 1) Those who only vote based on the resume and records of the teams current situation without regard to future schedule or games; 2) Voters who give precedence to past positions and future schedules who vote on who are the best teams regardless of their current resume.

The CAT-P tends to favor those who are looking at current records and resumes. The more informed voters don’t really care if you were #3 last year or won the Big Sky last year. They want to know where the team is right now in comparison to other teams. I have intentionally picked writers and posters who fit this model of voting because it fits my bias. The poll is about a team’s strengths and weaknesses today – not in the past or the future.


CLICK TO ENLARGE




Weekly Stats

This week I reintroduce my weekly aggregate Offensive and Defensive Stats. I chose 4 stats for offense and 4 for defense. I realize there are many more team stats that represent a teams strength. This is a simple snapshot using four common measures of a team’s real strength. However, it is flawed at the start of the season due to the vast different non-con schedules played; the FBS-FCS matchups; the opportunities by 2nd and 3rd teams to get on the field. I start out with the top 5 Big Sky teams and a couple of other fairly good teams – NDSU and SDSU. Once we get a couple of more weeks of good data, I will add other contenders realistically competing for a seed and the bye week come playoffs.

That all said, Montana State comes out on top based on Offensive scores ranking no lower than 16th in any of the four stats. Our Offensive score of 5.75 is half as large as the next team in my stats poll – Gris at 11.50. Surprisingly, Idaho scores exceptionally low using my scale. They are the worst offense of the bunch – but they did go against two FBS teams.

We also are the top rated defensive team which was a surprise to me. We have an average of 16.5. And consider we gave up four scores on Scoop and Scores that were not from the defense. Without those points, we would be #4 scoring defense in the country. On an overall score, Cats are 11.13 and the next closest is SDSU at 24.25. Of course, the early season schedule is all over the map so not really apples to apples. But it is all we have and it is better than not being the Top in these stats. More to come in the weeks ahead.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Big Sky Games and Predictions

Last Week Predictions

• EWU at Nevada – 1-0
o Predicted: Nevada 38-17
o Actual: Nevada 49-16

• Idaho @ Abilene Christian 2-0
o Predicted: Idaho -31 – ACU – 13
o Actual: Idaho 27-24

• NAU @ UIW –3-0
o Predicted: NAU 21 – UIW 22
o Actual 38-14

• Sac State @ Texas Commerce 4-0
o Predicted: Sac 38- Texas Retail – 14
o Actual Sac 34 – Texas Storefront - 0

• PSU @ Boise State 5-0
o Pred: Boise 58 – PSU 13
o Act: Boise 56-14

• Utah Tech @ UCD 6-0
o Pred: UCD 38 – Utah Tech 10
o Act: UCD 32 – Utah Tech 14

• UNC @ SFA –6-1 (Bad miss – UNC is not a good team)
o Pred: UNC 12 – SFA 3
o Act: SFA 47 – UNC 7

• Weber State @ NW State 7-1
o Pred: Weber 44-NW State 6.
o Act: Weber 39 – NWS - 0

• WCU @ Gris – 8-1
o Pred: Gris -35 – WCU 17
o Act: Gris 46 – WCU 35

• Southern Utah @ Idaho State – 8-2
o Pred: SUU 27-14
o Act: ISU 38 – SUU 28

• MercyHurst @ MSU – 9-2
o Pred: Cats 47 – Mercy 13
o Act: Cats 52 – Mercy 13

So, what to you make of the fact that I not only picked 9 games correctly out of 11; but I also got the point spread basically right in 6 of the 9 games? Should go on the Net and find an offshore betting facility so I don’t have to go to the nearest Town Pump and bet on the games at the kiosk? Hmm… I think not! Last week was super easy and I am no fool, at least not with my money! This week will be the real test.

Big Sky Games 28 September

For each game, I will provide a fairly short write-up; predict the winner and say who we want to lose given the future playoff picture. Let’s see if I can at least bat 50%. My goal is by next week to provide an entire season long prediction chart of all Big Sky contenders and see how it pans out.

• Cal Poly @ Northern Colorado – Not much to see here. Two bottom feeders. Cal Poly actually has a victory albeit against a DII school. I think it will be 0-0 at half time! But given it is at home, I will go with Cal Poly 21 – UNC 10.

• Portland St @ Chattanooga – At one point this game was going to be an interesting match up of Big Sky vs SoCon. But Portland State looks anemic and Chattanooga was the SoCon preseason favorite by almost all media yet they are sitting at 0-3 and have scored a whopping 9 points per game! Now that is one high powered offense. Granted, 2 of the 3 games were against FBS schools so guess this is Play or Go Home Day. I think at home Chattanooga should be able to put some points on the board against PSU who has given up 56 points a game. Chattanooga 35 – PSU 10


• Sac State @ NAU – Ok, on to the more important games. On paper, Sac State should be faster and better than NAU. Both teams are sitting at 2-2 with Sac state having two FBS losses and NAU an FBS loss and ranked FCS loss. We generally think of Sac State as having a good offense and so-so defense. But Sac is only 38th in total offense in the FCS while NAU is 19th in total defense. Maybe it is a good matchup for NAU. Sac State just switched QBs so Conklin is the main man under center. Normally, I would go with Sac State but this game is at the WhyDome in “Why do games go crazy here?.” I will pick it as my upset of the week. NAU 24 – Sac State – 21. Just call it a hunch.

• Gris @ EWU – Gris have a losing streak on the red turf that extends to 2010 – basically since the Blood Red field was introduced. Can EWU keep up the streak? We certainly want them to do so but I don’t think there is much chance. Gris looked really good last week. I don’t see EWU stopping Gilman even though they will score some points against the Gris’s leaky secondary. Gris 38 – EWU 17.

• McNeese St @ Weber – Weber and McNeese State are both a bit of unknowns. McNeese did not win a game last year, then somehow landed Clifton McDowell. Regardless of what we all think of McDowell, he has some sort of moxie that is hard to put your finger on. McNeese played in week zero and is 3-2. Two of their wins have been against SWAC teams and they lost to Tarleton State. But still to go from 0-11 to 3-2 is a statement. The Southland is weak this year – basically, UIW and maybe Lamar. Weber on the other hand is 2-2 with a hammering at the hands of UW and then an inexplicable loss to Lamar. You have the ball on inside the 5 late in the fourth quarter trailing by one. Instead of kicking the field goal and asking your defense to hold, you go for the score and fail. Then Weber holds Lamar and gets the ball back and misses a 40-yard field goal. Maybe that is why they didn’t go for it from the 3-yard line!! I don’t think Weber is great but Munoz is 37th in the FCS in YPG and Weber actually has an offense this year averaging 388 YPG. The big Mac team – McDowell and McNeese State – will find it tough sledding in Ogden. Weber State 24 – Big Mac 16

• Idaho @ UCDavis – what to make of this game? It will be a tremendous test for both teams. A number of writers believe if Idaho wins this game, they should be #1 in the polls next week. The reality is there are too many slot voters and as long as NDSU wins (SDSU has a bye), the best Idaho will do is be #3. That said, I don’t agree with some Bobcat Nation posters that say Idaho might only be so-so and haven’t been tested. The Vandals are legit. They clearly have the best resume in the Big Sky and probably in the FCS. They have played four tough games – 3 of them on the road. In fact, in their first 7 games, they will have 5 road games including the game against the Cats on 12 October. I think it is likely that game will be the FCS game of the week with Idaho possibly #1 and Cats right behind at #3 or #4.

But back to this game. Defense may be the key to this game. Both the Vandals and the Aggies have been stout against the run. Both teams are weaker in the secondary. One would think with Larison that the Aggies would be a top rushing team. However, they are 91st in rushing offense at only 108 YPG. Go figure. Makes no sense. Sometimes when I am listening to Podcasts the broadcasters seem to be high on every time – Idaho, UCDavis, Gris, UCA, Mercer, SIU, SDSU, etc…. I know it is early in the season and hard to gauge. I would like Idaho to be brought down to earth but I don’t think the Aggies are the team. Aggies will keep it close for a while and it will not be a high scoring game in my mind. The defenses will be primed. Idaho 20 – Aggies 15

The Cat Game – Cats @ ISU

Don’t know what to think. I am a stats guy and a realistic at heart. Hard to tell where these two teams sit. Obviously, lots of posts about the game and lots of predictions. Cody Hawkins has done an excellent job with the Bengals but it is early in the season. The big win was against Southern Utah last week at home. That was a surprise to everyone as every writer was predicting a solid SUU victory. But weird things happen in domes (Skydome, Kibbe, Pocatello – The ICCU Dome??). I don’t like playing in domes; don’t like playing against new coaches with nothing to lose.

On paper, the Cats are way stronger, faster, deeper. The main concern will be the Cats secondary. ISU is the 9th best passing team in the FCS at this point even with a blow out loss to Oregon State. But they only had 161 yards against SUU; their big game was against DII Western Oregon. My view is our pass rush has not been as strong as we all thought it would be and our secondary is still the weak link on the defense. ISU won’t be able to run much against the Cats. ISU is 63rd in rushing YPG so they will have to pass. We have to put pressure on the QB and create some turnovers.

Ultimately, this is a must win game as the Cats cannot lose to any lower tier Big Sky teams this year (ISU; UNC, EWU, and PSU) in order to stay in the hunt for a top 4 seed. Cats win by 2 or 3 scores.

Go Cats

[Montanabob]

WEEK 5 – Offensive and Defensive Stats; Big Sky play and More

All good intentions aside, it is Saturday morning and I am still writing my post. Maybe it is because work is keeping me really busy. Or maybe it is because when my son saw me driving the delivery van, he asked my daughter (who works for me), “What is Dad doing? Isn’t he like 80? He shouldn’t be doing heavy lifting!” Hmm, I am 67, in great shape, lowest weight since college but maybe I am getting old!! Sorry it is so late. I will do next weeks on Sunday and Monday.

This week I review who we lost and who we want to lose outside of the Big Sky; introduce our weekly aggregate offensive and defensive stats for the Top Big Sky and FCS teams; update the CAT-P and then look at the Big Sky games last week and the start of conference play. Assuming I can finish all this before noon. Wife is out of town but the list of Honey-Do’s is large and the game starts at 4. Good thing I have Sunday. Let’s get to it.

Who we wanted to lose

It was a bad week to knock off any contenders. Did not get a single upset.
• Towson at NDSU – MISSED IT.
o NDSU gave up lots of yards but they prevailed. Still unsure of their defense.
• Drake at USD – MISSED IT.
o Maybe Eastern is just that bad that Drake beat them then lost to USD by 39.
• Furman at W&M – MISSED IT
o Furman made a run at it. Was up 14-0 and only trailing 27-24 late in the fourth but could not close out.
• SDSU at SELA – MISSED IT
o Not really close. Jacks looked good. SELA is Bad
• SEMO at SIU – MISSED IT
o I think SIU without their QB (Williams) is likely to lose 2 or 3 more games in a row. They might be 2-5 before they know what hit them. Time Williams is back, too late.

Who we want to lose this week.

Lots of games to consider. I look at the Big Sky games separately. What we want to see if teams knock each other off so there is separation from the top 4. This makes it easier for Cats to get a higher seed. Doesn’t usually work out well but there has been more parity in the East Coast teams the last couple of years. A quick run through of the most important games

• Mercer @ Wofford – Both of these teams are a surprise. Wofford did not win a game last year until it played the battle of the bottom and beat winless The Citadel in week 11. Then they pulled an upset of Furman (which helped give us the 6th seed). Mercer’s defense through four games is off the charts. They are giving up 24 YPG! And not a fluke. The most any team has rushed on them is 57 yards. Simply unreal. We need Mercer to be knocked off early. MERCER to LOSE.

• SIU @ USD – Not sure what to make of this game. Seems possible for SIU to win but unlikely. Nonetheless, I think USD is a bigger threat to a top seed. USD to LOSE.

• NDSU @ Illinois State – This is a big one. NDSU sits at #2 in the Stats poll and #4 in the CAT-P. Illinois State is just outside the top 15. I think playing at home gives ISU a chance to win. NDSU defense is weaker this year. ISU is 15th in rushing yards and NDSU is 58th in rushing defense. There is a chance. NDSU to LOSE

• Lamar @ Central Arkansas – UCA is a team to be concerned about. They are playing really well; have the leading Walter Payton Award candidate (Powell) and the leading Buck Buchanan Award player (David Walker); and should be 4-0. As they will compete for a top 4 seed, we will want them to lose every time possible. and that won’t be often in the weak UAC. Maybe only 2 tough games all year after this one. UCA to LOSE.

• SELA @ Tarleton St – Tarleton is an up and comer. They could challenge for a seed. SELA could upset them. Possibly. TARLETON STATE to LOSE



CAT-P – Moving up

This week on the CAT-P, I have replaced Craig Haley’s vote with Timothy Rosario. Craig has not been posting his vote regularly. Timothy is cohost of “The BlueBloods” podcast with Zach Mckinnell. While Rosario is not a Stats voter, he does vote every week and posts it on www.redshirts.xyz/college-football/rankings/fcs/2024. He does his homework every week and he is not a shill for any team or conference and to give him extra credit, he is not a fan of the Bison – at least not this year.

Entering the CAT-P this week is SEMO, at #13 in the Stats Perform poll but number 14 in the CAT-P. A new team last week was the Mercer Bears currently at #13 in the CAT-P. Leaving the CAT-P this week is Southern Illinois who lost handily to that very same SEMO team. Otherwise not much movement. The Cats opened a slightly better hold on the #2 slot. NDSU remained #4, in my mind because the more informed voters see lots of issues with the NDSU defense. There are a variety of voters who have given first place votes to NDSU, MSU and Idaho. It also appears that if Idaho beats UC Davis this week, the surge to make them #1 will grow as their resume is the best. I understand the argument that you don’t get to choose your schedule (well only partially) but have to admit Idaho’s is a doozy. My reading of the tea leaves says there are two kinds of voters – 1) Those who only vote based on the resume and records of the teams current situation without regard to future schedule or games; 2) Voters who give precedence to past positions and future schedules who vote on who are the best teams regardless of their current resume.

The CAT-P tends to favor those who are looking at current records and resumes. The more informed voters don’t really care if you were #3 last year or won the Big Sky last year. They want to know where the team is right now in comparison to other teams. I have intentionally picked writers and posters who fit this model of voting because it fits my bias. The poll is about a team’s strengths and weaknesses today – not in the past or the future.


CLICK TO ENLARGE




Weekly Stats

This week I reintroduce my weekly aggregate Offensive and Defensive Stats. I chose 4 stats for offense and 4 for defense. I realize there are many more team stats that represent a teams strength. This is a simple snapshot using four common measures of a team’s real strength. However, it is flawed at the start of the season due to the vast different non-con schedules played; the FBS-FCS matchups; the opportunities by 2nd and 3rd teams to get on the field. I start out with the top 5 Big Sky teams and a couple of other fairly good teams – NDSU and SDSU. Once we get a couple of more weeks of good data, I will add other contenders realistically competing for a seed and the bye week come playoffs.

That all said, Montana State comes out on top based on Offensive scores ranking no lower than 16th in any of the four stats. Our Offensive score of 5.75 is half as large as the next team in my stats poll – Gris at 11.50. Surprisingly, Idaho scores exceptionally low using my scale. They are the worst offense of the bunch – but they did go against two FBS teams.

We also are the top rated defensive team which was a surprise to me. We have an average of 16.5. And consider we gave up four scores on Scoop and Scores that were not from the defense. Without those points, we would be #4 scoring defense in the country. On an overall score, Cats are 11.13 and the next closest is SDSU at 24.25. Of course, the early season schedule is all over the map so not really apples to apples. But it is all we have and it is better than not being the Top in these stats. More to come in the weeks ahead.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Big Sky Games and Predictions

Last Week Predictions

• EWU at Nevada – 1-0
o Predicted: Nevada 38-17
o Actual: Nevada 49-16

• Idaho @ Abilene Christian 2-0
o Predicted: Idaho -31 – ACU – 13
o Actual: Idaho 27-24

• NAU @ UIW –3-0
o Predicted: NAU 21 – UIW 22
o Actual 38-14

• Sac State @ Texas Commerce 4-0
o Predicted: Sac 38- Texas Retail – 14
o Actual Sac 34 – Texas Storefront - 0

• PSU @ Boise State 5-0
o Pred: Boise 58 – PSU 13
o Act: Boise 56-14

• Utah Tech @ UCD 6-0
o Pred: UCD 38 – Utah Tech 10
o Act: UCD 32 – Utah Tech 14

• UNC @ SFA –6-1 (Bad miss – UNC is not a good team)
o Pred: UNC 12 – SFA 3
o Act: SFA 47 – UNC 7

• Weber State @ NW State 7-1
o Pred: Weber 44-NW State 6.
o Act: Weber 39 – NWS - 0

• WCU @ Gris – 8-1
o Pred: Gris -35 – WCU 17
o Act: Gris 46 – WCU 35

• Southern Utah @ Idaho State – 8-2
o Pred: SUU 27-14
o Act: ISU 38 – SUU 28

• MercyHurst @ MSU – 9-2
o Pred: Cats 47 – Mercy 13
o Act: Cats 52 – Mercy 13

So, what to you make of the fact that I not only picked 9 games correctly out of 11; but I also got the point spread basically right in 6 of the 9 games? Should go on the Net and find an offshore betting facility so I don’t have to go to the nearest Town Pump and bet on the games at the kiosk? Hmm… I think not! Last week was super easy and I am no fool, at least not with my money! This week will be the real test.

Big Sky Games 28 September

For each game, I will provide a fairly short write-up; predict the winner and say who we want to lose given the future playoff picture. Let’s see if I can at least bat 50%. My goal is by next week to provide an entire season long prediction chart of all Big Sky contenders and see how it pans out.

• Cal Poly @ Northern Colorado – Not much to see here. Two bottom feeders. Cal Poly actually has a victory albeit against a DII school. I think it will be 0-0 at half time! But given it is at home, I will go with Cal Poly 21 – UNC 10.

• Portland St @ Chattanooga – At one point this game was going to be an interesting match up of Big Sky vs SoCon. But Portland State looks anemic and Chattanooga was the SoCon preseason favorite by almost all media yet they are sitting at 0-3 and have scored a whopping 9 points per game! Now that is one high powered offense. Granted, 2 of the 3 games were against FBS schools so guess this is Play or Go Home Day. I think at home Chattanooga should be able to put some points on the board against PSU who has given up 56 points a game. Chattanooga 35 – PSU 10


• Sac State @ NAU – Ok, on to the more important games. On paper, Sac State should be faster and better than NAU. Both teams are sitting at 2-2 with Sac state having two FBS losses and NAU an FBS loss and ranked FCS loss. We generally think of Sac State as having a good offense and so-so defense. But Sac is only 38th in total offense in the FCS while NAU is 19th in total defense. Maybe it is a good matchup for NAU. Sac State just switched QBs so Conklin is the main man under center. Normally, I would go with Sac State but this game is at the WhyDome in “Why do games go crazy here?.” I will pick it as my upset of the week. NAU 24 – Sac State – 21. Just call it a hunch.

• Gris @ EWU – Gris have a losing streak on the red turf that extends to 2010 – basically since the Blood Red field was introduced. Can EWU keep up the streak? We certainly want them to do so but I don’t think there is much chance. Gris looked really good last week. I don’t see EWU stopping Gilman even though they will score some points against the Gris’s leaky secondary. Gris 38 – EWU 17.

• McNeese St @ Weber – Weber and McNeese State are both a bit of unknowns. McNeese did not win a game last year, then somehow landed Clifton McDowell. Regardless of what we all think of McDowell, he has some sort of moxie that is hard to put your finger on. McNeese played in week zero and is 3-2. Two of their wins have been against SWAC teams and they lost to Tarleton State. But still to go from 0-11 to 3-2 is a statement. The Southland is weak this year – basically, UIW and maybe Lamar. Weber on the other hand is 2-2 with a hammering at the hands of UW and then an inexplicable loss to Lamar. You have the ball on inside the 5 late in the fourth quarter trailing by one. Instead of kicking the field goal and asking your defense to hold, you go for the score and fail. Then Weber holds Lamar and gets the ball back and misses a 40-yard field goal. Maybe that is why they didn’t go for it from the 3-yard line!! I don’t think Weber is great but Munoz is 37th in the FCS in YPG and Weber actually has an offense this year averaging 388 YPG. The big Mac team – McDowell and McNeese State – will find it tough sledding in Ogden. Weber State 24 – Big Mac 16

• Idaho @ UCDavis – what to make of this game? It will be a tremendous test for both teams. A number of writers believe if Idaho wins this game, they should be #1 in the polls next week. The reality is there are too many slot voters and as long as NDSU wins (SDSU has a bye), the best Idaho will do is be #3. That said, I don’t agree with some Bobcat Nation posters that say Idaho might only be so-so and haven’t been tested. The Vandals are legit. They clearly have the best resume in the Big Sky and probably in the FCS. They have played four tough games – 3 of them on the road. In fact, in their first 7 games, they will have 5 road games including the game against the Cats on 12 October. I think it is likely that game will be the FCS game of the week with Idaho possibly #1 and Cats right behind at #3 or #4.

But back to this game. Defense may be the key to this game. Both the Vandals and the Aggies have been stout against the run. Both teams are weaker in the secondary. One would think with Larison that the Aggies would be a top rushing team. However, they are 91st in rushing offense at only 108 YPG. Go figure. Makes no sense. Sometimes when I am listening to Podcasts the broadcasters seem to be high on every time – Idaho, UCDavis, Gris, UCA, Mercer, SIU, SDSU, etc…. I know it is early in the season and hard to gauge. I would like Idaho to be brought down to earth but I don’t think the Aggies are the team. Aggies will keep it close for a while and it will not be a high scoring game in my mind. The defenses will be primed. Idaho 20 – Aggies 15

The Cat Game – Cats @ ISU

Don’t know what to think. I am a stats guy and a realistic at heart. Hard to tell where these two teams sit. Obviously, lots of posts about the game and lots of predictions. Cody Hawkins has done an excellent job with the Bengals but it is early in the season. The big win was against Southern Utah last week at home. That was a surprise to everyone as every writer was predicting a solid SUU victory. But weird things happen in domes (Skydome, Kibbe, Pocatello – The ICCU Dome??). I don’t like playing in domes; don’t like playing against new coaches with nothing to lose.

On paper, the Cats are way stronger, faster, deeper. The main concern will be the Cats secondary. ISU is the 9th best passing team in the FCS at this point even with a blow out loss to Oregon State. But they only had 161 yards against SUU; their big game was against DII Western Oregon. My view is our pass rush has not been as strong as we all thought it would be and our secondary is still the weak link on the defense. ISU won’t be able to run much against the Cats. ISU is 63rd in rushing YPG so they will have to pass. We have to put pressure on the QB and create some turnovers.

Ultimately, this is a must win game as the Cats cannot lose to any lower tier Big Sky teams this year (ISU; UNC, EWU, and PSU) in order to stay in the hunt for a top 4 seed. Cats win by 2 or 3 scores.

Go Cats

wow. you slipping. we beat Bengals last week 45-6. today we are at home against Northern Colorado....

[Catprint]

WEEK 5 – Offensive and Defensive Stats; Big Sky play and More


The Cat Game – Cats @ ISU

Don’t know what to think. I am a stats guy and a realistic at heart. Hard to tell where these two teams sit. Obviously, lots of posts about the game and lots of predictions. Cody Hawkins has done an excellent job with the Bengals but it is early in the season. The big win was against Southern Utah last week at home. That was a surprise to everyone as every writer was predicting a solid SUU victory. But weird things happen in domes (Skydome, Kibbe, Pocatello – The ICCU Dome??). I don’t like playing in domes; don’t like playing against new coaches with nothing to lose.

On paper, the Cats are way stronger, faster, deeper. The main concern will be the Cats secondary. ISU is the 9th best passing team in the FCS at this point even with a blow out loss to Oregon State. But they only had 161 yards against SUU; their big game was against DII Western Oregon. My view is our pass rush has not been as strong as we all thought it would be and our secondary is still the weak link on the defense. ISU won’t be able to run much against the Cats. ISU is 63rd in rushing YPG so they will have to pass. We have to put pressure on the QB and create some turnovers.

Ultimately, this is a must win game as the Cats cannot lose to any lower tier Big Sky teams this year (ISU; UNC, EWU, and PSU) in order to stay in the hunt for a top 4 seed. Cats win by 2 or 3 scores.

Go Cats

wow. you slipping. we beat Bengals last week 45-6. today we are at home against Northern Colorado....

?? - Maybe a time warp is in play here. LOL Cats 37 - ISU -17.

[Catprint]

WEEK 6 –Playoff Seeding and Big Sky Predictions

Who lost from our week 5 non-Big Sky list?

Well, I think this is the first time in the 2 or 3 years of having a “Who We Want to Lose” list, that the Cats did not get a single game to go their way. Cream is rising to the top in the FCS for sure.

• Mercer @ Wofford – Missed it. Mercer’s defense is utterly unique. Giving up 29 YPG!
• SIU @ USD – Missed it. SIU is in danger of missing the playoff since their QB was injured
• NDSU @ Illinois State –Missed it. NDSU’s defense may actually be pretty darn good. Thoughts?
• Lamar @ Central Arkansas –Missed it. UCA continues to steamroll
• SELA @ Tarleton St – Missed it. Tarleton barely beat a poor SELA team.

Who we want to lose this week

The point of this exercise becomes clearer as the season progresses. Too many teams with 0 or 1 FCS losses makes for muddy waters when it comes to seeding the Top 2; Top 4 and Top 8 teams. While it is unlikely the Cats will go undefeated, we want top teams to fall to strength the Cats in the committee’s eyes. The playoffs it plenty of time to beat the top teams. In the meantime, we can support underdogs pulling off a surprise or two. I only look at non-Big Sky teams here.

• SEMO @ Eastern Illinois – SEMO is on the rise. Need them to hit the brakes. Road game at Eastern Illinois is a good start. SEMO TO LOSE.

• Nova @ Stony Brook – Both teams are 4-1 with an FBS loss but Nova is in the top 10 and Stony Brook is trying to crack the Top 25. One of only a couple of games where Nova will be challenged. NOVA TO LOSE.

• William & Mary @ Towson – W&M looks much stronger than two years ago against the Cats in the playoffs. They have Yoder back. They have a super easy schedule and could go 11-1 competing for a Top 4 seed. W&M TO LOSE

• UND @ NDSU – Game of the week. Can UND do it two years in a row? Don’t think so but NDSU TO LOSE (Any other choice?)

• SDSU @ UNI – Don’t think UNI has it in them but funny things happen in domes. SDSU TO LOSE.

• Chattanooga @ ETSU - Tough call here but I think ETSU is a rising star. Need them knocked back. ETSU to LOSE.

• UCA @ Abilene Christian – I think Central Arkansas the dudes and the schedule to challenge for a Top 2 seed. While NDSU, SDSU, UND, USD, MSU, UM, IDAHO, SAC STATE are knocking each other off, UCA has a clear path to an 11-1 record. We really need them to lose somewhere along the way. UCA TO LOSE

CAT-P - Slipped to #3

The main movement in Tier One of the CAT-P was the drop of Idaho from #3 to #10. Are they really that bad? I don’t think so but so early in the season, it is hard to justify Idaho ahead of UC Davis. So, the result is UC Davis at 8 and Idaho at 10. South Dakota moves up to number four based on their resounding victory against an injury-ridden Southern Illinois team. The CATS drop to #3 trailing NDSU only by .07 points. The main reason for this switch is stomping NDSU had over a ranked team. The rating systems (DR Ratings, Congrove, Massey) all consider SOS as part of their ranking. At this point, NDSU and MSU seem to rotate between #2 and #3.

The big move into the second tier was UC Davis and rightfully so. A little surprising is the Gris dropping from #8 to #9. It seems lots of the voters don’t think highly of the Gris’s defensive performance. Shrug, maybe Eastern is coming into its own and they will shred a few other Big Sky teams. Still too early. Mercer keeps inching up every week regardless of their schedule.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Offense and Defense Stats

This week I have added Central Arkansas and South Dakota to the Best Offense and Best Defense stats chart. Trying to widen the net in the next week or two I will have 10-12 teams in the chart.

On the offense side of the ball, due to the high scoring victories by NDSU and Cam Miller’s extremely high passing efficiency (#1 in the FCS), MSU slipped to #2 best offense in the FCS per my aggregated stats by a half a point. In addition, newcomer UCA is a close second. Only .75 points behind the CATS. This is another indication of the threat UCA presents to the Cats getting a top seed. Another observation is how high the Gris are ranked in all categories except passing efficiency. The Gris have a top rushing attack and that will be difficult for every team in the Big Sky including the Cats. Idaho and Sac State have dropped off but it is still early in the season.

Defense is a different story. South Dakota is the #1 defense but MSU is second and only trailing by a point. The Cats have solid rankings in all categories. Even though the 2nd and 3rd team have played in three games, we still rank 2nd. We can only speculate that if the first team defense played in all those games, MSU would be the top team by a significant score even accounting for these teams playing first team in a blow out game.

In the combined score, the Cats clearly has the best combination of offense and defense. Our score is 12.38 with the next closed score NDSU at 18.25 followed by USD at 18. A couple surprising scores are the low scores for the defense of both the Gris and Idaho – two teams that the FCS experts have spoke highly of their defenses. Idaho’s score is negatively affected by the Oregon game but the Gris have no excuse. Both Eastern and Western Carolina shredded the Gris secondary. Time will tell if they can get their act together.

CLICK TO ENLARGE



Playoff Teams Fighting for Top 8 Seed.

This week I will introduce the weekly series looking at the teams competing for a Top 8 seed. I do my best to understand the current situation and the future games. However, early in the season there are a lot of teams that are “elite;” “red hot”; “very efficient”; “clicking on all cylinders” and any other superlative cast on them by sportswriters and podcasters. Of course, they will not all be “elite” come playoff time. I will look at the conferences with strong enough SOS that they could be considered a contender for a Top 8 seed if they finish with 0, 1 or 2 FCS losses. This year, with the expanded schedule and the number of teams sitting with no or only one FCS loss this year, I seriously doubt anyone will get a Top 8 seed with 3 losses like The Cats did last year at 8-3.

The only conferences in the 12 FCS in my mind that COULD get a Top 8 seed are in alphabetical order: Big Sky; Big South/OVC; CAA; MVFC; SoCon; Southern and UAC. Even this list is longer than normal. In the last four years; the Big Sky and MVFC have captured 19 of the 32 Top 8 seeds not leaving many seeds for other conferences. If you include the CAA, the total is 25 of the Top 8 seeds only leaving 7 other seeds over 4 years. Expectation is for this year to be dominated by these conferences as well but there are some potential surprises. Let’s look at conferences with a harder row to sow (Big South/OVC; Southern; Southland and UAC) and then look at the Big Sky; CAA and MVFC.

• Big South/OVC
o Possible Seeded Teams: 1 (SEMO)
o Seeded Teams in last 4 Years: 0

Only SouthEast Missouri State (SEMO) has a chance for a seed this year. They are 4-1 with only an FBS loss. The rest of their schedule is fairly easy with only 2 games against teams with a winning record. Their QB – Paxton DelLaurent – is playing well and they could easily end up 11-1 or 10-2. The downside is their low SOS and future SOS. At this point their future SOS is 82 which would be extremely low for a seeded team. They also will likely have no “Now Ranked Wins” at the end of the season as their one win over SIU will not look as good if SIU ends up 6-5 and unranked. They could sneak into a #7 or #8 seed if enough other teams topple.

• Southern Conference (SoCon)
o Possible Seeded Teams: 2 (Mercer, East Tennessee)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 3

At the start of the year, it looked there would be 4 or 5 SoCon teams with a chance to be at the top of the pile. That has quickly whittled down to only two teams – Mercer and East Tennessee. Mercer is undefeated with 5 FCS wins and an outrageously good defense (29 YPG rushing Defense). ETSU has two losses but only one FCS loss against NDSU, a game they had won. Mercer will lose at Alabama later this year so they will have an FBS for sure. Both of their schedules could result in their head-to-head matchup in October deciding the SoCon champion. If Mercer wins that game, it is possible Mercer will be 11-1 with NO FCS losses. They would almost certainly get a Top 8 seed: maybe Top 4. I think a top 4 is unlikely as their SOS is exceptionally low (currently 102). ETSU is more a long shot since they would have to beat Mercer as well as win out or they would need a number of Big Sky/MVFC teams to knock each other off so everyone has at least 1, if not 2 FCS losses. I think we will see one Top 8 seed from the SoCon.

• Southland
o Possible Seeded Teams: 2 (McNeese State, UIW)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 3

Honestly, I am not sure if the Southland has any teams that can compete for a seed this year. The only two possible are McNeese State and Incarnate Word (UIW). McNeese State is a complete turnaround project from last years no win team (only win a forfeit). They have only 1 FCS loss and if they can beat UIW in two weeks, it is possible that Clifton McDowell (remember him? He is McNeese’s QB now) could lead them to a 10-2 record with one FCS loss. UIW has two FCS losses but against ranked teams. Last year MSU got in with 3 FCS losses but one of the strongest SOS in the field (#1 or #2 if I recall). UIW future SOS looks like about 53 right now. Clearly only one of these two teams has a chance for a Top 8 seed and it would be right at the edge.

• UAC
o Possible Seeded Teams: 2 (Central Ark; Tarleton State)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 0

The United Athletic Conference is anything but united. Its membership has shifted faster than the ground under a San Andres Fault earthquake. Members drop out; move up; shift from the Southland and then back to the Southland. The UAC has no history of a seeded team although Central Arkansas was seeded in 2019 when they were members of the Southland.

THE UAC also has two (2) possible seeded teams. The clear front runner is Central Arkansas (UCA) who are 4-1 with no FCS losses (and a FBS loss that should have been a win). They are winning handedly against weak competition. They have one of the best running games in the country and they have a cupcake schedule the rest of the year. If they can beat Tarleton State in the final game of the year, they will almost assuredly be 11-1 and inline for a Top 4 seed. Their SOS is the only thing keeping them from a Top 4 seed and if they have NO FCS losses it is hard to imagine the committee denying them a Top seed.

Tarleton State is in a comparable situation with only one FBS loss and a fairly easy schedule. Both of these teams have to face Abilene Christian and Southern Utah. Tarleton also has to play Austin Peay who UCA already beat. The last game of the season will be the key game for both of these teams if they are not upset enroute.

• CAA
o Possible Seeded Teams: 3 (W&M; Villanova; Mystery)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 6

The CAA is a huge conference that is also in flux. New teams from the NEC and MEAC have moved in to temporarily give the CAA 16 teams (not sure what is the point of these overly large conferences) but next year Delaware moving to FBS (Where is the big TV Market for Delaware? I don’t get it. Sure, they are outside of Philly but no one in Philly cares about Delaware) and Richmond is moving to the Patriot League (So they can get the auto bid by being a mediocre football team, only thing I can figure).

Nova and William & Mary are the front runners for a Top 8 seed this year. Nova avoids Wiliam & Mary; Richmond; and Rhode Island this year to give them an easier schedule. They do play Delaware and that is considered and FCS game. If they win that game, they could be undefeated in the FCS with no ranked wins and no signature wins. But that still will likely get them a Top 8 Seed.

Wiliam & Mary is in a similar situation with a 4-1 record and no FCS losses. Their schedule is super easy from here on out avoiding Delaware; Villanova, Rhode Island, New Hampshire, and Monmouth – basically entire upper crust of the CAA. A 10-2 or 11-1 record is highly possible but their SOS will be weak.

I am adding a third possible Mystery Team from the CAA team will be in contention for a seed but I just don’t know which one. It is too early but Stony Brook, Rhode Island, Richmond, Monmouth, and New Hampshire all seem to have the opportunity to have only 1 or 2 FCS losses. Just too early to tell which one rises to the top and which sink like a rock.

• MVFC
o Possible Seeded Teams: 4 (NDSU, SDSU, USD, UND)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 7
Historically, the MVFC ends up with only 1 or 2 teams with a seed every year. That is usually NDSU and SDSU. Last year to the Cats misfortune, NDSU did not get a seed but should have. That is the problem with the committee going with the full year’s body of work. NDSU was ok in the first half but lights out in the second half and they were one crazy play away from going to the Natty for a fourth straight year.

Honestly, I think this is easier than it looks. NDSU and SDSU will get a Top 8 Seed, one of them will almost certainly get a Top 4. The only question is whether USD will get a Top 8 seed at 9-3 with two FCS losses. I expect the Yotes to lose to both NDSU and SDSU this year. Just the most likely possibility. So that leaves a whole lot of teams that could be 10-2 with only 1 FCS loss also in the mix.


• Big Sky
o Possible Seeded Teams: 5 (MSU, UM, Idaho, Sac, UC Davis)
o Seeded Teams in Last 4 Years: 12

Interesting tidbit. Big Sky has had the most seeded teams in the last 4 years – 12; yet we have only had 2 teams in the Natty and no winners. The MVFC has had 7 seeded teams but had 5 in the Natty and 4 winners. Of course, this shows the dominance of NDSU and SDSU. This is also a reflection of the variety of teams from the Big Sky who beat each other each year. In 2019, the Big Sky had 4 seeds with 5 teams with only 1 or 2 losses in conference (Eastern Washington did not get a playoff bid.) Oddly, that was the last time there was a 12-game season. The Big Sky teams who got a seed all were 9-3 at the end of the season. The same scenario could play out this year with UM, MSU, Idaho, Sac, and Davis. I have not put together a sample scenario that could result in three or four Top 8 seeds but I will next week. Suffice it to say, there is NO one who has any idea how the Big Sky will play out. I try to flesh that out in my Big Sky game predictions each week. (see next section).


Here is my three-tiered view of the teams competing for a Top 8 Seed. I think it is way to early to try and seed these teams like Stan Becton of ncaa.org or Jason at collegesportsmadness.org has done. It is more reasonable to put them into tiers knowing there is so much unknown. I have 19 teams on the seeded bubble. This will quickly pair down to 12-14 in the next couple of weeks. But depending on how many MVFC and Big Sky teams beat each other up, their may be a difficult set of decisions for the committee with 12 or more teams with 0,1 or 2 FCS losses come late November. I expect Tier 1 teams to have zero or 1 FCS loss and a strong SOS. Tier 2 teams will have 1 or 2 FCS losses and/or a fairly weak SOS coming from the weaker conferences. Tier 3 teams will have 2 or 3 FCS losses or a very weak SOS (like McNeese State would have) and need lots of help to end up with a Top 8 seed in the playoffs

Tier 1: High Probability of Top 4 Seed
• SDSU
• NDSU
• MSU
• UM
• Idaho

Tier 2: Low Probability of Top 4 Seed; High probability of Top 8 Seed
• UCA
• USD
• Mercer
• UC Davis
• Villanova
• W&M
• UIW

Tier 3 – Low Probability of Top 8 Seed
• Sac State
• McNeese State
• Tarleton State
• UND
• SEMO
• ETSU
• CAA Mystery Team


Big Sky Games 5 OCTOBER

Last week I correctly predicted 5 out of 7 Big Sky games including the NAU upset over Sac State. For the last two weeks, I am currently 14 out of 18 games for a 78% winning prediction rate. This will start moving to 50% as the season wears on because that is why they play the game every Saturday. I am no better than most at predicting football game winners. Here are this week’s discussions, predictions and what we hope for regardless of predictions.

Predicted Winners

• UC Davis @ Portland State
I think we all thought PSU would be at least ok this year and challenge a few teams. Last year they were 5-6 and 4-4 in conference. This year not so much. I think they could end up 2-9 (with the cancelled USD game taking away their twelfth game). Massey says PSU has the #1 toughest schedule in the FCS. They finish with MSU, Sac, Idaho, Montana with the last game against UNC. That actually might be a chance for UNC to get a win because PSU will be beat down.

UC Davis is going to be hard to gauge. Just missing the playoffs, the last two years was a real travesty. This year’s team looks formidable. The victory against Idaho and no FCS losses are a great start. The Idaho victory was not as solid when you look at the stats. While a win is a win, the committee does look at the details behind the win when evaluating similar teams. Idaho won TOP, First Downs, and Total Yards. Davis won on the turnovers (which in my mind were simply bad throws not great defense) and some poor playing calling by Eck. Eck is a gambler but a more traditional approach in a couple of key situations might have resulted in an Idaho win. Idaho held Davis to 26 yards rushing and Larison was a non-factor in the running game. That all said, Davis will win this game without a lot of difficulty.
Davis 38 – PSU 10

• Idaho State @ Cal Poly
This game has no playoff seeding implications except on the Cats SOS. Idaho State looks better than the cellar dweller many of us thought they would be. Their offense is #5 in the conference and defense not so good. I don’t think they are going to challenge for any playoff berths what with NAU, Sac, Weber, and Idaho still on their schedule. But they could be 4-4 or 5-3. There really isn’t any point talking about Cal Poly even though they are 2-2. Their two wins were against a poor DII team and UNC who is the equivalent of a poor DII team.
Idaho 27 – Cal Poly 14

• NAU @ Idaho
NAU remains an enigma. They are up and down. Two years ago, they almost beat a very good MSU team but couldn’t beat UNC or PSU and end up 3-8. Last year they beat the Gris but still end up 5-6 by losing 3 of their next 6 including a blow out to PSU. Under first year coach Brian Wright, have they “wrighted” the ship? Very difficult to tell. I called their victory over Sac State because the SkyDome is a hell of a place to play and Sac State is not that good in my mind. NAU has four tough games in a row.

Meanwhile, Idaho is not happy about last week’s loss. This is the fourth ranked FCS opponent in a row for Idaho. Next week will be #5 in a row and some commentators have said that would be some sort of record for consecutive ranked games. Idaho has only had one home game. Their run defense is suffocating. I just can’t see Idaho letting this one slip away. If they do, then NAU is legit and everyone better watch out because after the Gris next week, they have a clear schedule to get to maybe 9-3.
Idaho 31 – NAU 21

• Weber @ Gris
Running on fumes in these write ups… Weber is what? Good? Bad? Really Bad? Gris defense is what? So-So? Unlucky? Really as bad as the stats show? I think Weber is at best so-so. Their two wins have come against two really bad DI teams although they did put up some points. The Gris pas defense is suspect but not their rushing defense.

This is a bad match up for Weber. Weber’s rushing defense is poor and their passing offense is anemic. This will allow the Gris to run all over Weber while not having to let the defense be shredded by Munoz. I can’t imagine Weber putting together enough offense to come out with a victory. It might be high scoring however, if Munoz can open up the field.
Gris 45 – WildCats - 28

Who we Want to Lose

• Davis @ PSU – My view is we want Davis to be near the top of the standings so if the Cats beat them, it looks better on our resume. We need to beat some ranked teams and if Sac and Davis fade and we win only one of two against Gris or Idaho, we will only have 1 ranked win and that will hurt the Cats in the race for a Top 4 seat in this extremely competitive seeding race. PSU to LOSE
• Idaho State @ Cal Poly - This game has no playoff seeding implications except on the Cats SOS. Since Cats do not play Cal Poly, we want ISU to have a reasonable SOS, maybe even ending up 5-3 for the season in Big Sky Play. CAL POLY to LOSE
• NAU @ Idaho
This is a slightly tougher call. Idaho is a very good team and we need to beat them next week. I would hate for them to come to Bozeman on a 2-game losing streak. They would be desperate for a win. Plus, we don’t play NAU so their SOS is worthless to us. NAU to LOSE.
• Weber @ Gris
All rivalry aside, we need the Gris to stay near the top so WHEN we beat them, we have a ranked win against a Top 10 team. Our SOS is low and we need the signature wins. A Weber win does nothing for us since we don’t play them. WEBER to LOSE.


Bobcats’ Game against UNC



I just need to get this posted. I have to figure out a way to get my post up on Tuesday or Wednesday. Life gets in the way.

Frankly, I really hate our schedule this year. Yes, we will be 6-0 going into the Idaho game on national TV. Yes, we have dominated all of the lesser teams. Yes, we have an FBS win for the first time in forever. But our current SOS is 71st and we really don’t know how good we are. The games are frankly uninteresting in the second half (except last week) and mostly an opportunity for someone to get injured or watch 2nd/3rd team players. This week will bring an end to that streak. Our final 6 games feature 4 ranked teams and EWU at home (where our last four games on the Red Inferno are 2 losses and 2 “3-point wins”. Not exactly domination.)

Against UNC, I would like to see us come out quick; dominate on the run game; mix in some decent passing; run for 300-350 yards; 500 yards of total offense and win by a score of 49-10. Probably won’t look that good because Vigen is not a runup the score type of coach and he will not keep first team in there. I would hate to see UNC come in fired up and start strong and force us into a more competitive game where we win 31 – 17. It is possible but unlikely.

Cats 49-UNC -17

GO CATS

[damnyoutuesday]

Seeing the "top" CAA teams miss like 4 or 5 other top CAA teams every year pisses me off so much. They get such an easy, unearned cakewalk every year because their conference is so freaking massive and bloated with low level teams. That conference fell off when JMU left

[Catprint]

Seeing the "top" CAA teams miss like 4 or 5 other top CAA teams every year pisses me off so much. They get such an easy, unearned cakewalk every year because their conference is so freaking massive and bloated with low level teams. That conference fell off when JMU left

I agree. Lots of the CAA teams are not very good but they have such an easy schedule to get to 10-2 or 11-1 if they don't have an FBS game on their schedule.

[damnyoutuesday]

Seeing the "top" CAA teams miss like 4 or 5 other top CAA teams every year pisses me off so much. They get such an easy, unearned cakewalk every year because their conference is so freaking massive and bloated with low level teams. That conference fell off when JMU left

I agree. Lots of the CAA teams are not very good but they have such an easy schedule to get to 10-2 or 11-1 if they don't have an FBS game on their schedule.

They have 16 teams and 8 conference games, so each team literally misses 7 other CAA teams every year. That's insane for FCS

[Catprint]

WEEK 7 –Part One: Big Sky race and Hunt for a Seed Disrupted

What a Wild Day. A fair number of upsets and close games. Here is my first part of my weekly post.

FCS Playoff Seeding Tiers

Status of My List of 19 teams in the hunt for a seed.

Winners
• SDSU vs UNI – 41-3. Pretty much shows UNI is a pretender to the Top 25
• NDSU vs UND – 41-17. NDSU defense issues? Not so much. Held UND to 101 yards running.
• Villanova vs Stony Brook - Nova pulls away for a victory on the road.
• South Dakota – Big win against a poor team
• Idaho had a slow start but eventually outran NAU.
• UIW – Crushed Prairie View out of the SWAC
• SEMO had no trouble with Eastern Ill.
• MSU - Ditto
• UCDavis pulled out a victory handed to them by the officials and the time clock
• Tarleton State – escaped with an overtime win over Southern Utah.

Falling Short
• William and Mary – Sitting at #12 in the polls, falls to unranked Towson severely hurting W&M’s chance of a top seed.
• Central Arkansas – The high flying UCA defense gave up 500 yards to Abilene Christian. Maybe ACU is better than some of us thought. UCA still in the hunt for a seed given their easy schedule.
• UND – See Above reference to NDSU.
• Gris – Do the Gris have a defense? Did they all their good plays transfer out of the league or graduate?
• McNeese State – Bad loss to Houston Christian.
• ETSU fell to Chattanooga in a low-scoring affair giving the Mocs some life in the SoCon race.

Teams with a bye included Mercer and Sac State.

Here is my new seeding Tiers. I have dropped the Gris from Tier 1 since they have two FCS losses. I moved USD up into the Tier 1 partly because I want more in each list than seeds available. I moved Central Arkansas down in Tier 2 as well as moving UND further down in Tier 3. I have a tough time seeing UND getting past SDSU or USD. I dropped McNeese State and ETSU from Tier 3 so we only have 17 teams competing for 8 seeds at this time. No one deserved to move up into Tier 3 at this point.

Tier 1: High Probability of Top 4 Seed
• SDSU
• NDSU
• MSU
• Idaho
• USD

Tier 2: Low Probability of Top 4 Seed; High probability of Top 8 Seed
• Mercer
• UC Davis
• UM
• Villanova
• UCA
• UIW
• W&M

Tier 3 – Low Probability of Top 8 Seed
• Sac State
• Tarleton State
• SEMO
• UND
• CAA Mystery Team (URI, UNH, Richmond, Monmouth)

Dropped Out of Tier 3
• McNeese State
• ETSU

The seeding conundrum of SDSU and NDSU

I know it is early in the season but I see potential roadblock to the Cats getting a number 1 or number 2 seed and hosting three playoff games. First, looking at NDSU, I don’t see them less dominating on defense as some sportswriters and commentators have discussed after the first three games. Based on their schedule, NDSU will dominate every MVFC team they play except SDSU. And there is no way SDSU has lost a step. I anticipate the winner of The Dakota Marker game will end the season 11-1 with NO FCS losses. The loser of the Marker game will end up 10-2 with ONE FCS loss to the #1 team in the country.

I know this is controversial but this leaves everyone else out in the cold including the Cats. Because in my view, if the Cats have 1 FCS loss (the most likely scenario), they will get a 3 or 4 seed. However, even if the Cats are 12-0, I am not sure that gives them a #1 or #2 seed. I know most fans will say how can you NOT give a 12-0 team a #1 or #2 seed? For the same reason Mercer will not get a Top 4 seed if they go 12-0: Strength of Schedule. SDSU currently has the #1 toughest future SOS and NDSU has the #4 toughest. MSU has #26 and Mercer has the #71. We all know SOS is important in the seeding of playoff teams. It is the main reason the Cats got a #6 seed last year (vs. no seed) when we were 8-3 and NDSU got the #3 seed over the Cats in 2022. I think the best seed we can hope for is #3 short of a massive upset to SDSU or NDSU during the season. It actually frustrates me immensely that SDSU/NDSU have such a stranglehold on the top seeds and the Natty. In the last 12 years, NDSU/SDSU have won 11 of 12 Natty’s. (I don’t count the 2020 season) and the only exception is JMU (who is currently 4-1 in the FBS). It is the way.

Big Sky Update from 5 October

How were my predictions for this last week? Answer is 4 out of 5. My season record at this point (last 3 weeks) is 18 of 23 or 78%. But that said, I think PSU should have had the upset with UCDavis. Can’t believe PSU had two calls in the final second go against them. But typically, figuring out who is great; who is decent; who is up and coming is difficult to say in the Big Sky. Nothing different here after week two. Here are my thoughts as we move into the heart of conference schedule – going from the bottom to top in order. Part of my reason to look at all the teams is the tendency of Big Sky teams to rise from the bottom to the top and disrupt expected top teams (see NAU last year). In addition, the SOS of teams the Cats play is still a key issue for a Top 2 seed.

Northern Colorado – Still winless but not the worst team around. Their defensive line is really good and they held the Cats to 4.8 yards per carry which is the lowest of the season. Their quarterback situation is a shambles – on their 5th QB – but Keone runs well and can throw the ball. But hard to see them winning more than 1 game in conference.

Portland State – I don’t know what to think. Thought PSU was horrible and maybe one of the worst in the FCS. Then they hold the lead against UC Davis for both of the game and loss in what I would consider an officiating nightmare – not saying right or wrong. S PSU is 0-5 and 0-2 in the conference. Their remaining schedule is a killer and they may only win one or two conference games…UNLESS they are really better than the record shows. Just don’t know how much Saturday was a one-off.

Eastern Washington – Had a bye week. 1-4 so far but played the Gris really well. But don’t think that close loss has aged that well after Weber’s victory. However, I am not looking forward to playing EWU on the Red Inferno with Chisolm as the leading receiver in the FCS. It will be a horse race for most of their games. Eastern is current the 15th best offense in the FCS (total offense) ahead of USD, SDSU, ETSU, UND and Western Carolina – all considered to be top offenses. Maybe they can win a few games although their 119th defense is a serious impediment.

Sac State – Sacramento State is not the fourth worst team in the Big Sky. Having the early bye and the loss to NAU leaves them there for now. However, are they a top 4 team as predicted by nearly everyone? Don’t know. I will leave their position alone at this time. I don’t think any of us know since 2 of their 3 losses are FBS losses and third being the NAU loss.

Cal Poly – I think they should have won on Saturday against ISU but could not get it done. Really not much of an offense (rushing game was good last week but not much of a passing game anywhere.) Defense is mediocre at best. I still them in the bottom of the league come late November with UNC and PSU.

NAU – Beat Sac State; kept the game within reach with Idaho. Who is NAU still unknown. If there is some depth to NAU, they could win 3 more easily giving them a 4-4 record. Possibly getting to 5-3 in conference is a realistic goal with additional loses only to Gris and Weber.

Idaho State – Just not sure. I think their passing attack is solid but without much of a defense don’t know how they win more than 2 or 3 more games given their top-heavy schedule. Maybe they can surprise everyone. Cody Hawkins has the right stuff.

Gris – Sandwiched between Idaho and ISU with a 1-1 conference record but a better overall record than ISU, the Gris certainly are on the ropes. I expect Herder, Marshall and McKinnell (all top FCS podcasters) to go from “not concerned about the Gris defense” to “full fire alarm.” In the last 3 games, the Gris have given up 523 YPG. They have the 74th best defense and that includes the stats from playing Morehead State which is almost the worst team in the FCS. This is NOT a formula to a Top 8 seed, much less a return trip to the Natty. Can Bobby fix this? NAU game will be his first opportunity.

Idaho – I am not fully on the Vandal raiding party but clearly, they have a good team. The loss at UC Davis doesn’t really hurt Idaho in the seeding hunt as it applies to a Top 8 seed. I still see them as a challenge to the Cats this weekend and Weber later in the year. If they are able to beat the Cats in Bozeman, they could finish 7-1 in the Big Sky and 10-2 overall. More about them later.

Weber State – This was a complete surprise. Weber had lost to McNeese State at home and Lamar on the road. Yes, these teams were hanging around the Top 25 in the Stats Poll but they are not really good teams. The Gris were supposed to be really good. Weber hadn’t won in WaGris in quite a while. And besides, Weber is not supposed to have much of an offense – only averaging 25 points a game. Putting up 55 is quite an accomplishment. For now, Weber is at the top of the league with only a couple of difficult games on the horizon.

UC Davis – Sitting on the top of the Big Sky, the biggest takeaway is how well Miles Hastings is playing as QB. Last week, he had nearly 400 yards passing and the team had 548 total yards. They are going to be a real threat to get a top seed. They have three pasties next so they will likely be 5-0 before they have to play Gris, Cats and Sac State. That will be the gauntlet where they need to only win 1 of 3 to be in a position for a seed with a 9-3 record and only 2 FCS losses. Win 2 of 3 and they are looking at a top 4 seed. Is UC Davis that good?

MSU – Only team in the FCS at 6-0; 4th longest streak in the Stats Top 25; 4th in total offense; 6th in scoring offense; 24 point average margin of victory; 6th in total defense….. and yet we really don’t know how good the Cats are this year. No ranked wins. No games against the preseason top 5 in the Big Sky. Guess we will find out next week….


Pound the Rock League?

The Big Sky supposedly is the pound the rock conference with most of the top teams employing outstanding rushing attacks. Maybe not so much now? Look at this week’s offenses. And this is with pass heavy EWU having a bye week.

Idaho State: 425 passing vs 106 running
UC Davis: 398 passing vs 150 rushing
Weber: 364 passing vs 177 rushing
Gris: 355 passing vs 172 rushing
Cats: 278 passing vs 232 rushing
UNC: 261 passing vs 101 rushing
PSU: 259 passing vs 117 rushing
NAU: 196 passing vs 118 rushing

The only teams with more rushing yards today:
Idaho: 189 rushing vs 124 passing
Cal Poly: 295 rushing vs 113 passing

Only two teams had more rushing yards than passing. And Cal Poly doesn’t ever pass. Five teams had more than twice as many yards passing as rushing. This is the Big Sky? What might be the consequences of such prolific passing? First, games are going to be even higher scoring like the Gris-Weber game and the ISU-CalPoly game. Second, it is my belief the Cats defense is much better against the run than the pass on any given day. This may make it harder to get through the schedule unscathed. Third, there will be more upsets because heavy air-oriented teams allow for easier comebacks. Witness EWU last week and Weber this week. NO lead is safe when QBs like Weber’s Munoz or ISU’s Tracy can toss 70-yard bullets and turn the score in 2 or 3 plays.


Offense and Defense Chart

This week the Cats return to the #1 offensive team in my aggregate statistics with a score of 4.00. The next closet team is NDSU at 7.5 and Central Arkansas at 9.5. Cats had over 500 yards against Northern Colorado and scored 55 points – both of which helped their offensive stats. I certainly expect those numbers to drop some in the coming weeks as we play much stronger competition.

On the defensive side, the Cats are #3 after South Dakota and Mercer, who I inserted into the line up. Even with a bye, I expect Mercer to enter the Top 10 Stats poll due to the losses by UND and the Gris. Mercer has an unreal rushing defense but their SOS is very low. Finally, the Cats remain the best overall team in combination of offense and defense with a score of 10.00. Second spot is held by USD at 12.00 and Mercer at 16.00. We have been the best overall team on the statistics level for 3 weeks in a row. Time will tell what the next two or three weeks bring.

CLICK TO ENLARGE




Part II in a couple of days

Go Cats!

[tetoncat]

WEEK 7 –Part One: Big Sky race and Hunt for a Seed Disrupted

What a Wild Day. A fair number of upsets and close games. Here is my first part of my weekly post.

FCS Playoff Seeding Tiers

Status of My List of 19 teams in the hunt for a seed.

Winners
• SDSU vs UNI – 41-3. Pretty much shows UNI is a pretender to the Top 25
• NDSU vs UND – 41-17. NDSU defense issues? Not so much. Held UND to 101 yards running.
• Villanova vs Stony Brook - Nova pulls away for a victory on the road.
• South Dakota – Big win against a poor team
• Idaho had a slow start but eventually outran NAU.
• UIW – Crushed Prairie View out of the SWAC
• SEMO had no trouble with Eastern Ill.
• MSU - Ditto
• UCDavis pulled out a victory handed to them by the officials and the time clock
• Tarleton State – escaped with an overtime win over Southern Utah.

Falling Short
• William and Mary – Sitting at #12 in the polls, falls to unranked Towson severely hurting W&M’s chance of a top seed.
• Central Arkansas – The high flying UCA defense gave up 500 yards to Abilene Christian. Maybe ACU is better than some of us thought. UCA still in the hunt for a seed given their easy schedule.
• UND – See Above reference to NDSU.
• Gris – Do the Gris have a defense? Did they all their good plays transfer out of the league or graduate?
• McNeese State – Bad loss to Houston Christian.
• ETSU fell to Chattanooga in a low-scoring affair giving the Mocs some life in the SoCon race.

Teams with a bye included Mercer and Sac State.

Here is my new seeding Tiers. I have dropped the Gris from Tier 1 since they have two FCS losses. I moved USD up into the Tier 1 partly because I want more in each list than seeds available. I moved Central Arkansas down in Tier 2 as well as moving UND further down in Tier 3. I have a tough time seeing UND getting past SDSU or USD. I dropped McNeese State and ETSU from Tier 3 so we only have 17 teams competing for 8 seeds at this time. No one deserved to move up into Tier 3 at this point.

Tier 1: High Probability of Top 4 Seed
• SDSU
• NDSU
• MSU
• Idaho
• USD

Tier 2: Low Probability of Top 4 Seed; High probability of Top 8 Seed
• Mercer
• UC Davis
• UM
• Villanova
• UCA
• UIW
• W&M

Tier 3 – Low Probability of Top 8 Seed
• Sac State
• Tarleton State
• SEMO
• UND
• CAA Mystery Team (URI, UNH, Richmond, Monmouth)

Dropped Out of Tier 3
• McNeese State
• ETSU

The seeding conundrum of SDSU and NDSU

I know it is early in the season but I see potential roadblock to the Cats getting a number 1 or number 2 seed and hosting three playoff games. First, looking at NDSU, I don’t see them less dominating on defense as some sportswriters and commentators have discussed after the first three games. Based on their schedule, NDSU will dominate every MVFC team they play except SDSU. And there is no way SDSU has lost a step. I anticipate the winner of The Dakota Marker game will end the season 11-1 with NO FCS losses. The loser of the Marker game will end up 10-2 with ONE FCS loss to the #1 team in the country.

I know this is controversial but this leaves everyone else out in the cold including the Cats. Because in my view, if the Cats have 1 FCS loss (the most likely scenario), they will get a 3 or 4 seed. However, even if the Cats are 12-0, I am not sure that gives them a #1 or #2 seed. I know most fans will say how can you NOT give a 12-0 team a #1 or #2 seed? For the same reason Mercer will not get a Top 4 seed if they go 12-0: Strength of Schedule. SDSU currently has the #1 toughest future SOS and NDSU has the #4 toughest. MSU has #26 and Mercer has the #71. We all know SOS is important in the seeding of playoff teams. It is the main reason the Cats got a #6 seed last year (vs. no seed) when we were 8-3 and NDSU got the #3 seed over the Cats in 2022. I think the best seed we can hope for is #3 short of a massive upset to SDSU or NDSU during the season. It actually frustrates me immensely that SDSU/NDSU have such a stranglehold on the top seeds and the Natty. In the last 12 years, NDSU/SDSU have won 11 of 12 Natty’s. (I don’t count the 2020 season) and the only exception is JMU (who is currently 4-1 in the FBS). It is the way.

Big Sky Update from 5 October

How were my predictions for this last week? Answer is 4 out of 5. My season record at this point (last 3 weeks) is 18 of 23 or 78%. But that said, I think PSU should have had the upset with UCDavis. Can’t believe PSU had two calls in the final second go against them. But typically, figuring out who is great; who is decent; who is up and coming is difficult to say in the Big Sky. Nothing different here after week two. Here are my thoughts as we move into the heart of conference schedule – going from the bottom to top in order. Part of my reason to look at all the teams is the tendency of Big Sky teams to rise from the bottom to the top and disrupt expected top teams (see NAU last year). In addition, the SOS of teams the Cats play is still a key issue for a Top 2 seed.

Northern Colorado – Still winless but not the worst team around. Their defensive line is really good and they held the Cats to 4.8 yards per carry which is the lowest of the season. Their quarterback situation is a shambles – on their 5th QB – but Keone runs well and can throw the ball. But hard to see them winning more than 1 game in conference.

Portland State – I don’t know what to think. Thought PSU was horrible and maybe one of the worst in the FCS. Then they hold the lead against UC Davis for both of the game and loss in what I would consider an officiating nightmare – not saying right or wrong. S PSU is 0-5 and 0-2 in the conference. Their remaining schedule is a killer and they may only win one or two conference games…UNLESS they are really better than the record shows. Just don’t know how much Saturday was a one-off.

Eastern Washington – Had a bye week. 1-4 so far but played the Gris really well. But don’t think that close loss has aged that well after Weber’s victory. However, I am not looking forward to playing EWU on the Red Inferno with Chisolm as the leading receiver in the FCS. It will be a horse race for most of their games. Eastern is current the 15th best offense in the FCS (total offense) ahead of USD, SDSU, ETSU, UND and Western Carolina – all considered to be top offenses. Maybe they can win a few games although their 119th defense is a serious impediment.

Sac State – Sacramento State is not the fourth worst team in the Big Sky. Having the early bye and the loss to NAU leaves them there for now. However, are they a top 4 team as predicted by nearly everyone? Don’t know. I will leave their position alone at this time. I don’t think any of us know since 2 of their 3 losses are FBS losses and third being the NAU loss.

Cal Poly – I think they should have won on Saturday against ISU but could not get it done. Really not much of an offense (rushing game was good last week but not much of a passing game anywhere.) Defense is mediocre at best. I still them in the bottom of the league come late November with UNC and PSU.

NAU – Beat Sac State; kept the game within reach with Idaho. Who is NAU still unknown. If there is some depth to NAU, they could win 3 more easily giving them a 4-4 record. Possibly getting to 5-3 in conference is a realistic goal with additional loses only to Gris and Weber.

Idaho State – Just not sure. I think their passing attack is solid but without much of a defense don’t know how they win more than 2 or 3 more games given their top-heavy schedule. Maybe they can surprise everyone. Cody Hawkins has the right stuff.

Gris – Sandwiched between Idaho and ISU with a 1-1 conference record but a better overall record than ISU, the Gris certainly are on the ropes. I expect Herder, Marshall and McKinnell (all top FCS podcasters) to go from “not concerned about the Gris defense” to “full fire alarm.” In the last 3 games, the Gris have given up 523 YPG. They have the 74th best defense and that includes the stats from playing Morehead State which is almost the worst team in the FCS. This is NOT a formula to a Top 8 seed, much less a return trip to the Natty. Can Bobby fix this? NAU game will be his first opportunity.

Idaho – I am not fully on the Vandal raiding party but clearly, they have a good team. The loss at UC Davis doesn’t really hurt Idaho in the seeding hunt as it applies to a Top 8 seed. I still see them as a challenge to the Cats this weekend and Weber later in the year. If they are able to beat the Cats in Bozeman, they could finish 7-1 in the Big Sky and 10-2 overall. More about them later.

Weber State – This was a complete surprise. Weber had lost to McNeese State at home and Lamar on the road. Yes, these teams were hanging around the Top 25 in the Stats Poll but they are not really good teams. The Gris were supposed to be really good. Weber hadn’t won in WaGris in quite a while. And besides, Weber is not supposed to have much of an offense – only averaging 25 points a game. Putting up 55 is quite an accomplishment. For now, Weber is at the top of the league with only a couple of difficult games on the horizon.

UC Davis – Sitting on the top of the Big Sky, the biggest takeaway is how well Miles Hastings is playing as QB. Last week, he had nearly 400 yards passing and the team had 548 total yards. They are going to be a real threat to get a top seed. They have three pasties next so they will likely be 5-0 before they have to play Gris, Cats and Sac State. That will be the gauntlet where they need to only win 1 of 3 to be in a position for a seed with a 9-3 record and only 2 FCS losses. Win 2 of 3 and they are looking at a top 4 seed. Is UC Davis that good?

MSU – Only team in the FCS at 6-0; 4th longest streak in the Stats Top 25; 4th in total offense; 6th in scoring offense; 24 point average margin of victory; 6th in total defense….. and yet we really don’t know how good the Cats are this year. No ranked wins. No games against the preseason top 5 in the Big Sky. Guess we will find out next week….


Pound the Rock League?

The Big Sky supposedly is the pound the rock conference with most of the top teams employing outstanding rushing attacks. Maybe not so much now? Look at this week’s offenses. And this is with pass heavy EWU having a bye week.

Idaho State: 425 passing vs 106 running
UC Davis: 398 passing vs 150 rushing
Weber: 364 passing vs 177 rushing
Gris: 355 passing vs 172 rushing
Cats: 278 passing vs 232 rushing
UNC: 261 passing vs 101 rushing
PSU: 259 passing vs 117 rushing
NAU: 196 passing vs 118 rushing

The only teams with more rushing yards today:
Idaho: 189 rushing vs 124 passing
Cal Poly: 295 rushing vs 113 passing

Only two teams had more rushing yards than passing. And Cal Poly doesn’t ever pass. Five teams had more than twice as many yards passing as rushing. This is the Big Sky? What might be the consequences of such prolific passing? First, games are going to be even higher scoring like the Gris-Weber game and the ISU-CalPoly game. Second, it is my belief the Cats defense is much better against the run than the pass on any given day. This may make it harder to get through the schedule unscathed. Third, there will be more upsets because heavy air-oriented teams allow for easier comebacks. Witness EWU last week and Weber this week. NO lead is safe when QBs like Weber’s Munoz or ISU’s Tracy can toss 70-yard bullets and turn the score in 2 or 3 plays.


Offense and Defense Chart

This week the Cats return to the #1 offensive team in my aggregate statistics with a score of 4.00. The next closet team is NDSU at 7.5 and Central Arkansas at 9.5. Cats had over 500 yards against Northern Colorado and scored 55 points – both of which helped their offensive stats. I certainly expect those numbers to drop some in the coming weeks as we play much stronger competition.

On the defensive side, the Cats are #3 after South Dakota and Mercer, who I inserted into the line up. Even with a bye, I expect Mercer to enter the Top 10 Stats poll due to the losses by UND and the Gris. Mercer has an unreal rushing defense but their SOS is very low. Finally, the Cats remain the best overall team in combination of offense and defense with a score of 10.00. Second spot is held by USD at 12.00 and Mercer at 16.00. We have been the best overall team on the statistics level for 3 weeks in a row. Time will tell what the next two or three weeks bring.

CLICK TO ENLARGE




Part II in a couple of days

Go Cats!

Strength of schedule should only count with same or possibly 1 loss different in records. If you play harder teams but lose you shouldn't move ahead of someone who wins all games. Say NDSU has losses to average Colorado and SDSU. IF Big Sky is 2nd best conference an FBS win and undefeated in Conference they have to be at least 2. Otherwise just anoint MVC the Champs each year.