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Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:54 am
by The MICKSTER
Here are some of the CATS conference-only stats from 2018;
• Scoring Offense….6th……29.8
• Scoring Defense…3rd……26.5
• Total Offense…….11th….380
• Total Defense…….5th…..405
• Rushing Offense..3rd…..258
behind CP & EWU
• Rushing Defense..4th…..194
• Pass Offense……..12th.…122
• Pass Defense……...8th.…211
• Pass Efficiency….13th….106
• Interceptions……..5th…..14
• Sacks by ……..…T 6th…….15
• 1st Downs………..10th.….146
• Opp 1st Downs.…8th…...174
• 3rd D conv…….…10th……36%
• Opp 3rd D conv..11th…..47%
• Time of Poss…....8th…….28:07
Which one would you like to see improve the most???? 
I'm thinking TOP because that means we're most likely improving in several other stats as well, but Pass Efficiency is a close runner-up....13th OUCH 
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:03 pm
by Bobcat4Ever
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion Rate. We must be better than 11th.
Pass Defense. We should be better than 8th.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
by VimSince03
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:11 pm
by jgrilley406
Definitely Third down conversion rate on both sides of the ball...can’t be having our defense on the field for so long during the game
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:22 pm
by Catsrgrood
If we’re just picking one, I’m keeping it simple, scoring defense.
This team had a lot of talent on D last year but still gave up almost 4 TD’s a game.
I think this D will be better than last year, but if they can improve that stat by a good margin, be in the high teens or so, that will help everyone and take a lot of pressure off of the RS freshman starting QB
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:36 pm
by thefrank1
Passing efficiency needs to be ranked 5th or higher. That will solve lots of issues as well.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:40 pm
by 77matcat
3rd down conversion.
Should move total defense significantly and keep Defense fresh.
Hope Ione gets aggressive and forgets about bend don’t break.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:53 pm
by CARDIAC_CATS
Bobcat4Ever wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion Rate. We must be better than 11th.
Pass Defense. We should be better than 8th.
I agree as well.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:08 pm
by CPACAT
Stats are for losers. Need to score one more point than the opponent each week.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:16 pm
by wapiti
jgrilley406 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:11 pm
Definitely Third down conversion rate on both sides of the ball...can’t be having our defense on the field for so long during the game
THIS!! If we improve this everything else should improve as well.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:27 pm
by PapaG
Bobcat4Ever wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:03 pm
Opponent's 3rd Down Conversion Rate. We must be better than 11th.
Number one by a long distance IMO.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:29 pm
by tdub
CPACAT wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:08 pm
Stats are for losers. Need to score one more point than the opponent each week.
While true...one less third down stop and turnover last year and this offseason would’ve felt totally different. So positively impacting some of these stats lead to the +1 on the board at the end of the game.
So let’s just put it this way: get off the field better on third downs and become more efficient in the pass game should result in a very good season.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 1:41 pm
by Cledus
The MICKSTER wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 11:54 am
Here are some of the CATS conference-only stats from 2018;
• Scoring Offense….6th……29.8
• Scoring Defense…3rd……26.5
• Total Offense…….11th….380
• Total Defense…….5th…..405
• Rushing Offense..3rd…..258
behind CP & EWU
• Rushing Defense..4th…..194
• Pass Offense……..12th.…122
• Pass Defense……...8th.…211
• Pass Efficiency….13th….106
• Interceptions……..5th…..14
• Sacks by ……..…T 6th…….15
• 1st Downs………..10th.….146
• Opp 1st Downs.…8th…...174
• 3rd D conv…….…10th……36%
• Opp 3rd D conv..11th…..47%
• Time of Poss…....8th…….28:07
Which one would you like to see improve the most????
I'm thinking TOP because that means we're most likely improving in several other stats as well, but Pass Efficiency is a close runner-up....13th OUCH
There is no correlation between winning and TOP, at all. I don't know why people continue to worship at this altar that has been debunked and thoroughly discredited. Holding on to the ball for long periods of time doesn't guarantee you'll finish the drive and get into the end zone, which is the objective.
TOP also can't tell the difference between teams' tempo of play. Two different teams could have the same TOP, but one team runs 55 plays in a game and the other could have 75 plays in a game.
Having said that, I'd like to see improvement of our defensive line strength. There's no one stat for defensive line strength that I'm aware but I feel like there are a few other stats that are indicators of defensive line strength, such as sacks, opponents' yard per carry, and opponents' 3rd down conversion %.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
by Cledus
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.
It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:17 pm
by CelticCat
Catsrgrood wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:22 pm
If we’re just picking one, I’m keeping it simple, scoring defense.
This team had a lot of talent on D last year but still gave up almost 4 TD’s a game.
I think this D will be better than last year, but if they can improve that stat by a good margin, be in the high teens or so, that will help everyone and take a lot of pressure off of the RS freshman starting QB
Honestly this is my thought as well. Yes there are lots of more granular stats you'd like to see improved, but there are multiple ways to skin a cat. Giving up less points is the end result, I don't care how we get there.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
by VimSince03
Cledus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.
It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:29 pm
by Cledus
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
Cledus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.
It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
I have a book at home on advanced stats and I remember reading that there have been only two times where the team with the lower passer rating margin won the Super Bowl. One of them was that miracle when the Giants beat the previously undefeated Patriots. I forget the other one.
This is one stat I would think would be pretty easy to back test.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:34 pm
by ilovethecats
Some great stuff being discussed here guys, thanks! A breath of fresh air.
I'll echo what others have said. If all things were equal I'd agree that 3rd down defense is the stat that I think would have the biggest impact if improved. That said, I'm going to take the easy way out. I'm so convinced that this defense is going to be so good that this stat will take care of itself. I think we'll be near tops in the league in every stat you can dream up on that side of the ball. They're going to be nasty.
With that said, I'll go with VIM and say passing efficiency as a whole. Obviously we have major questions that need to be answered on that side of the ball. We excel in this area and I think it means we're one of the best teams in the country.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:40 pm
by VimSince03
Cledus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:29 pm
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:21 pm
Cledus wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:09 pm
VimSince03 wrote: ↑Thu Aug 22, 2019 12:10 pm
For me its offensive passing efficiency. What is passing efficiency? It's kind of a five-stat formula that includes yards per attempt, completions per attempt, average per completion, touchdowns per attempt, and interceptions per attempt. The fact that MSU had the least efficient passing offense and was still able to run the ball near the top of the league meant they had some pretty good athletes in the backfield (truth) and a very good offensive line. It means defenses knew we couldn't throw the ball effectively so they keyed on the run game...and MSU still had success. Obviously, Weber State shut down the offense the best of any opponent (including NDSU) but the vast majority of MSU's opponents struggled. Overall, this is what poster's are talking about when they say "all we need is average play from our QB when throwing the ball". If MSU can at least be middle of the pack in offensive passing efficiency, the offense is going to be very hard to slow down...because the run game will be that much more dangerous and the offense will be better as a whole.
I studied this in detail some years ago. At a glance, it seems like some hard core stuff that can only be done by computers. But when you isolate the components you realize it's not really complicated and you can begin to see and understand how it's calculated and how it's influenced.
It didn't take me long to realize passer rating is really just a nerded up yards per attempt. The two most important things that move the passer rating are yards thrown and the number of throws. The number of throws is what causes the passer rating to move, simply because that's the denominator. Even if you try to take the other components to extremes (like TD's and interceptions) they barely move the needle compared to the number of throws.
Offenses with lower pass efficiencies usually struggle on 3rd down conversion rate as well. Improve the passing game and everything else should fall into place.
I have a book at home on advanced stats and I remember reading that there have been only two times where the team with the lower passer rating margin won the Super Bowl. One of them was that miracle when the Giants beat the previously undefeated Patriots. I forget the other one.
This is one stat I would think would be pretty easy to back test.
It also shows just how poor that 2016 Griz defense was against MSU. MSU completed only one pass (other than the final one) out of eight attempts and really didn't look to throw at all...and still won. Our run game efficiency in that game was ridiculous.
"2/9 for 37 yards" is a phrase some Griz fans wake up to in a hot sweat. A thing of nightmares.
Re: Stat needing most improvement
Posted: Thu Aug 22, 2019 2:49 pm
by Pecos24
If I have to pick one I’m going with the opponents 3rd down conversion rate. Let’s get ‘em off the field!