Big Sky Preview Week 8

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 1:48 pm

Yet again I was off by one game last week. After watching the Griz handle ISU, I thought they could give EWU fits at home. Meyer was simply unstoppable, with the help of Kimble and Cole.

My percentage so far is 78.95%, 15 for 19. I haven't missed more than one game per week, but I haven't aced any either.

This week has one team playing outside the Sky, and 3 other conference games. MSU has the only bye of the week.

Northern Arizona @ #24 Portland State
- Week after week I keep telling everyone that Murietta is going to have his breakout game. Well I'm not going to say it this week. It is looking more and more like his freshman year was a fluke. He is less than 50% on the year, average only 187.67 YPG, with 9 TDs and 8 INTs. About the best thing NAU has going for itself offensively is their kicker, who is 18/18 on XPs and 8/8 for FGs. NAU is giving up 165.8 rushing YPG, and that number is going to be increased after they face the brutal rushing attack of PSU. The Viks could very well have the best line in the Big Sky. They all average over 300 pounds and they get a great push off the ball. Rubin doesn't usually get hit until he has already gone 3 yards, and is very hard to bring down one on one. PSU put up it's best offensive performance of the season last week vs MSU. While MSU has the worst run defense in the Sky, it was ultimately the passing of Sawyer Smith that won that game. He was 17/25 for 252 yards and 2 TDs against a pretty good pass defense. Everyone was worried about PSU if they could find even just an average passing game. If Smith can keep up his efficient passing game, PSU has a good shot of making the playoffs, with the bulk of the hard games out of the way (EWU, MSU). NAU has been outscored in its 3 conference matchups by a total of 111-58. Their only wins have been against DII Adams State, and GWFC cellar dwellar Southern Utah. With PSU's win vs MSU last week, there might be a few more fans at PGE park than normal. I'll give NAU the benefit of the doubt by saying they can't play worse defensively than MSU did, but there is no way they can put up as much as will be needed to beat PSU.
What to watch : Smith (QB for PSU) had a solid day, his first solid day of the season. If PSU can add a passing threat to their already stellar running game, this team could be scary good.
- 20-34

Idaho State @ Sacramento State
- Idaho State got a much needed bye after consecutive losses to the Montana schools. After beating EWU at home, the Bengals were riding high, and even climbed into the polls. But upon further review, they may have been overrated as a team. The victory against EWU, they had only one of their 6 scoring drives go for more than 40 yards. ISU's special teams and the sloppy play of EWU's offense were the main reason the Bengals won this game. After two straight losses, and a bye week, ISU resumes conference play at perennial bottom feeder, Sac State. The Hornets only wins were against NAU (who would've though NAU would be worse than Sac?), and NAIA Azusa Pacific. In their four losses, Mole was held in check and Sac could only muster up a game-high of 14 points. That would be okay if you had a defense that could stop teams from scoring, but Sac gives up over 30 per game. And last week vs an average Weber defense, they only gained 258 total yards. But they gave up a lot of rushing yards to a good rushing Weber team, and ISU is exactly that. Barnett and Cornist are just shy of 500 yards each for the Bengals on the season. If Sac can get out and contain the run, ISU will have to rely on their QB to win the game. Hagler has thrown just 4 TDs to 10 INTs. He will not beat you on his own. However, I do not think ISU will have to rely on Hagler, or even Sniewski, whomever gets the start. ISU may have been overrated, but I don't see them dropping 3 straight, especially to the Hornets.
What to watch : The two-headed duo of Cornist and Barnett is about all the Bengals have going offensively. Fortunately for them, that is all they will need.
- 28-17

Weber State @ #5 Eastern Washington
- Weber has turned a few heads this season. Even though they fell short at UM and at home vs MSU, they looked like a pretty solid squad all around. They beat NAU on the road (that didn't turn out to be anything special), and beat Sac at home. They are 2-0 in games they should've won, and 0-2 in games they weren't supposed to win. They are soon going to be 0-3. The Eagles are playing like everyone thought they would be, and perhaps even better. Ryan Cole has added new depth to the Eagle offense, giving them a solid running game week after week. Last week he ran for 99 yards against a tough UM defense. But the story of that game was no surprise - Meyer to Kimble. Meyer to Kimble. Meyer to McIntrye. Wait, who is that? He only caught 6 balls for 134 yards and 3 TDs. He gives Meyer another threat to throw to, and teams can no longer just focus on Kimble. So what can Weber do to stop Meyer and Co.? Play a perfect defensive game. If they stop the run, EWU can pass all day. If they someone stop the pass, EWU can beat you on the ground. If they can force Meyer into making bad decisions, they might have have a chance to keep the score within their range. To do this, Fosmark is going to have to come up big. He is a threat in every game, although he has only registered 4 sacks thus far. EWU's defense is suspect, even after a solid performance last week vs UM. I just think there are only maybe 5 defenses in the country that could hold EWU to under 25. Unfortunately for Weber, they aren't one of them, especially on the road.
What to watch : The entire EWU offense. They are fun to watch, averaging 511 yards per game and 36.7 points per.
- 22-38

#2 Cal Poly @ #10 Montana
- Oh boy. This game is going to be fun to watch! Luckily my Cats are off so I'll be watching this game with much anticipation. The Griz haven't faced a defense like this all year. Oregon's defense might not even be as good. Cal Poly sits at just #12 in total defense on the year, but there is one key stat you have to look at. They have had 419 plays, more than anyone in the top 20. They are on the field more than they should have to be. Their flex defense confuses most opponents, except possibly very veteran units. They face no such offense this weekend, as they travel to UM to take on Redshirt Freshman Cole Berquist and the Montana Grizzlies. Berquist had a solid day against EWU last week, but most of his stats were accumulated late in the 3rd and into the 4th as the Griz tried to play catchup.
He was 25/40 for 246 yards and 1 TD. Not a bad showing by any means, and certainly the best showing by a Griz QB this season. One telling stat though - the Griz only had 88 yards of TOTAL offense in the first half! It goes to show how good the Griz defense is, keeping them in the game as long as they did. Fortunately for the Griz, Cal Poly isn't near as explosive as the #2 offense in the nation, the EWU Eagles, are. Bad sentence structure I know. But the Mustangs have a formidable running game with James Noble, amassing 575 yards in just 5 games. Fortunately for the Griz, I think the Griz defense is well-equipped to handle the option attack of Cal Poly. They are swarming and quick to the ball. They won't be able to shut them down, but they will be able to contain them and keep UM in the game. Garnett (CP QB) has not had to throw the ball more than 23 times in a game all season, and has only thrown 2 INTs (both to SDSU). The Mustangs rely on the running game to setup the pass, which is why Garnett hasn't thrown all that much. Garnett is also a good runner, rushing for 7 TDs while throwing 5. While I don't think the Poly offense will overwhelm the Griz defense, I believe their defense will overwhelm the Griz offense. Poly gives up just 103 yards per game on the ground, and the Griz main offensive weapon is Lex Hilliard. If Hilliard gets his 100, it will be on at least 30 carries. If the Griz offense can stay on the field long enough to wear down the Mustange defense, I like the Griz in a thriller at home. If the Griz offense is shut down, I like Cal Poly by a slighty bigger margin. I know it sounds crazy to think the Griz will drop 2 straight at home (has that ever happened at WA-Griz?), but in all fairness I picked them to win last week. I just don't see them overcoming this Mustang defense, even at home.
What to watch : Chris Gocong has 11.5 sacks on the season. Look for him to put pressure on Berquist all day.
- 17-13

Possible upset of the week: NAU over PSU
Best matchup: CP @ UM
Worst matchup: Weber @ EWU

jagur1 · Post by **jagur1** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:50 pm

PSU thinking they may be hot ****** will come out flat at home. NAU will win one this year it might as well be against PSU.

Robcat · Post by **Robcat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 2:52 pm

Celtic, look forward every week for your analysis. Hard to disagree, except maybe the Griz, they could have another blown out Saturday.

Ponycat · Post by **Ponycat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:44 pm

jagur1 wrote:PSU thinking they may be hot ****** will come out flat at home. NAU will win one this year it might as well be against PSU.

I agree that there is an upset this weekend, but I think Weber surprises EWU.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 4:46 pm

jagur1 wrote:PSU thinking they may be hot ****** will come out flat at home. NAU will win one this year it might as well be against PSU.

That could be true Jag. NAU always wins one they shouldn't and PSU always loses one they shouldn't. After this weekend, things might start to fall into place as to who will still be in the running come the last week of the season.

94VegasCat · Post by **94VegasCat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 5:48 pm

I'll take an NAU and Weber win. Who do I need to talk to, to make that happen? Where does the line start?

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:08 pm

I don't think EWU will lose again this year. Depending on how they matchup in the playoffs, maybe not even then. They are way to balanced.

PDXKat · Post by **PDXKat** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:14 pm

DaGriz wrote:I don't think EWU will lose again this year. Depending on how they matchup in the playoffs, maybe not even then. They are way to balanced.

I'll bet that we beat them, and so, they lose 2more, but they go deep.

couloir41 · Post by **couloir41** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 10:20 pm

duh...remember when the griz had an exclusively pass oriented offense??? I don't recall the griz loosing all that often...kind of like the cats have this year...mostly a passing offense...there is a very good chance our front seven (d) will improve enough to beat the eags there...particularly since the game is a month out...so don't count the cats out just yet...although i think you would like to...

in case you're not tracking here...you don't need a balanced offense to beat the eags...just a better than average defense and a very good offense...just food for discourse...

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Wed Oct 19, 2005 11:29 pm

duh...remember when the griz had an exclusively pass oriented offense???

No, when was that? The last 10 years or so?

I don't recall the griz loosing all that often...kind of like the cats have this year...mostly a passing offense...

I would assume you are talking about the passing offense and not the "losing that often" part.

n case you're not tracking here...you don't need a balanced offense to beat the eags...just a better than average defense and a very good offense...just food for discourse...

Who have you stopped with a decent offense this year? I'm not talking smack, we haven't either. This year EWU can run too. You guys can't stop the run. I think even if you shut down Meyer and Co. they will just turn to the running game.

so don't count the cats out just yet...although i think you would like to...

I hope you beat them. We could use the help also. That way when we beat the Cats there is no tie for the BSC champ., we will have won it out right. In all seriousness, I don't know if we can beat Poly or PSU. I just think EWU is the most balanced team in the Big Sky and will win out. The only balanced team you have played (including OSU) is Poly, and you got crushed. The Eags beat you last year at home, this is a better team than last year and you have them at their place. I'm not counting out the Cats, hell, I'm not counting out PSU. Lots of games left. The Big Sky champ. is up for grabs still.

couloir41 · Post by **couloir41** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 7:06 am

duh...i'll be brief...all the cats need to do is win out and they can do that if the d comes to play...and frankly i don't care if the griz ever win another game...now go back and harvest your dingle berries...save some for condiments on your ice cream...

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 2:45 pm

[quote="DaGriz]The only balanced team you have played (including OSU) is Poly, and you got crushed.[/quote]

I take it you meant OSU was not balanced. If you think they were/are, you are

SeeHarg · Post by **SeeHarg** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:22 pm

couloir41 wrote:there is a very good chance our front seven (d) will improve enough to beat the eags there...

snip

you don't need a balanced offense to beat the eags...just a better than average defense and a very good offense...just food for discourse...

Better hope that not only the front seven, but the back bunch as well improve a hell of a lot, given that this is a squad who made one of the worst QB's in the Sky look like a Payton contender last weekend. Not only is Meyer on a mission this year, but Kimble's getting within sniffing distance of Jerry Rice's TD record this season. On top of that, Ryan Cole appears to be getting better and better in that offense.

I wouldn't ever count out a team that had Lulay under center; Eastern's also got serious injury problems this year that just seem to be getting worse, so there's no telling how threadbare they'll be by mid November. But still, I'd postulate that you better bring a much-better-than "better than average" defense if you hope to stay on the same field as those guys.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 4:30 pm

SeeHarg wrote:
couloir41 wrote:there is a very good chance our front seven (d) will improve enough to beat the eags there...

snip

you don't need a balanced offense to beat the eags...just a better than average defense and a very good offense...just food for discourse...
Better hope that not only the front seven, but the back bunch as well improve a hell of a lot, given that this is a squad who made one of the worst QB's in the Sky look like a Payton contender last weekend. Not only is Meyer on a mission this year, but Kimble's getting within sniffing distance of Jerry Rice's TD record this season. On top of that, Ryan Cole appears to be getting better and better in that offense.

I wouldn't ever count out a team that had Lulay under center; Eastern's also got serious injury problems this year that just seem to be getting worse, so there's no telling how threadbare they'll be by mid November. But still, I'd postulate that you better bring a much-better-than "better than average" defense if you hope to stay on the same field as those guys.

EW will have to be worred about stopping our offense as well. It will be a very high scoring affair again with the team that gets the break TO's/Special Teams Play/Big Plays will win the game. EW had a good running game last year as well so I don't think much has changed from these 2 teams. Both defenses I'm sure are going to lose some sleep the night before that game I bet. MSU will be the underdog though and we like being the underdogs.

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 8:03 pm

I take it you meant OSU was not balanced. If you think they were/are, you are

correct, that's what I meant

couloir41 · Post by **couloir41** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:12 pm

speaking of balance on both sides of the ball let's talk cal poly mustangs and the griz for a moment...from what i have seen cal is more balanced than ewu...with that in mind i think it is inevitable that the griz are going to be on the receiving end of the kind of spanking that hasn't been seen in missoula since the inglorious days of dornblazer under the tutelage of carlsen...and as i recall that game is this weekend...hmmmm...bbbye duh...

bozbobcat · Post by **bozbobcat** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 9:20 pm

Cal Poly and the Griz, that could be ugly. Cal Poly could win very easily, but the Griz have this sort of "magic" that they can pull a win out of their...hat. They've done it before. I could see this one going either way. As far as Eastern Washington and the Cats, their defense still has to stop us and I'm not sure they're that good. If we get on track against NAU and Sac St. (who needs to be drop kicked out of the Big Sky) we really could give Eastern some problems.

couloir41 · Post by **couloir41** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:07 pm

bozo...you could be right but remember cal poly has something to prove this year after the screwing they got last year for the playoffs...and a shot at the loser of the nat champ game in the losers house is too good to pass up...think they make a statement at the expense of the griz...

i don't know why i am being so passive/aggressive tonight toward the griz...

DaGriz · Post by **DaGriz** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:11 pm

Cal Poly and the Griz, that could be ugly. Cal Poly could win very easily

I agree, I just think we match up better with Poly than we did with EWU. They are more run oriented and that is our strength. I don't know if we win this game or not but I like our chances better than I did against EWU. I think MSU matches up better with EWU. I don't think the MSU/EWU game will be the same kind of game as MSU/Poly. I still think the Eags won't lose the rest of the year though.

As far as Eastern Washington and the Cats, their defense still has to stop us and I'm not sure they're that good.

Actually they are #1 in the Big Sky in total Defense and #3 in pass defense. They are pretty good.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Thu Oct 20, 2005 10:53 pm

Eastern's defense is overrated. I was impressed with how they stopped Lex from running last weekend, but I wasn't impressed at all with their soft secondary. That's not to say their defense isn't better than ours, but I think PSU and UM have better defenses than EWU. Thankfully, our strength (passing) corresponds nicely to their weakness (pass defense). Sadly, their strengths (passing AND running) correspond to our weaknesses (pass defense AND run defense). I think the EWU game may be the only game where MSU has an advantage in special teams, though!