Realistic expectations for this year

[Cataholic]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

I would agree. SDSU lost a lot of talent and backfilling that much in one offseason seems unlikely.

100% agree. They very well may be really good, but they’re as big of an unknown as anyone right now. Normally a head coaching change at a strong program like that is tough, but not insurmountable. But a second coaching change in 2 years, with all of the staff that left also, AND losing 20+ players to graduation and portal is a mighty big thing to overcome, especially early.

SDSU is going to be a middle of the pack MVFC team this year. You don’t lose that much talent to the portal and maintain status as a top 10 team. Cats will win big in Bozeman in front of 22,000 fans.

Who’s going to finish ahead of them?

They're far from the middle of the pack imo. I think they'll be 3rd behind the evil empire and the yotes.

I should have added a little more explanation. I see 2 to 3 teams at the top of the MVFC - NDSU, USD and Illinois State. Then the next group has SDSU, UND, Youngstown State and UNI. They will beat each other up and end up with similar records. The rest are bottom dwellers. I think there are big gaps between the groups, and SDSU belongs in the second tier. You don’t lose 21 guys to FBS and expect to maintain the same level of success. Just not going to happen.

If it was 7-8 years ago, I’d agree. I just think sdsu is so far ahead of everyone except NDSU that they can take that hit and still beat those teams. They beat every league opponent by 31 points or more except USD and NDSU.

SDSU had 27 seniors last year. 10 of those Seniors were all-conference so they are losing a lot of contributors from that graduating class, including a couple guys who are getting f professional opportunities.

They also lost 21 players to the portal moving up to FBS teams. FBS teams are not taking any FCS guys. They want key contributors.

Tragically, they also lost an incoming FBS transfer who was expected to be key contributor at RB. He unexpectedly passed away this summer.

Add in the coaching change, I just don’t see any way that SDSU is at the top of the FCS, or even the MVFC this year.

MSU is a premier national program with considerable depth, but if we took a hit like that, we would be mediocre.

[grizzh8r]

We have the best QB HC coach in the conference. I have no doubt who ever Vigen picks will play well.

Vigen is a very good coach, but when it comes to quarterback development, Tim Plough is no slouch. I agree with the no.1 ranking in the pre-season poll for you guys - not much of a doubt there. With all the league unknowns, the big sky should be interesting this year.

What about Bob Hawk?

If Vigen and Plough are "QB Whisperers", Beavis is "QB Kryptonite"...

[TomCat88]

We have the best QB HC coach in the conference. I have no doubt who ever Vigen picks will play well.

Vigen is a very good coach, but when it comes to quarterback development, Tim Plough is no slouch. I agree with the no.1 ranking in the pre-season poll for you guys - not much of a doubt there. With all the league unknowns, the big sky should be interesting this year.

Plough is an excellent coach and UCD has made great progress the past three seasons. What's your take on this year's team? I have a feeling they're not going to have much of, a, if any, drop off from last season.

[GoldstoneCat]

I'm cautiously optimistic about the SDSU game and not sure why everyone is lumping them in the same category with NDSU (yes, I'm aware they were just picked #2 in the MVFC preseason poll). Jimmy Rogers did his alma mater DIRTY, taking basically his ENTIRE coaching staff (only the RB coach wasn't on his staff last year in Brookings), and SIXTEEN players. That's on top of the 5 others that transferred to other FBS teams. They did bring in 12 FBS transfers, but that amount of turnover on the coaching staff AND contributing players is going to be hard to gel as a group, IMO, especially being just the second game in. Combine that with playing in Bozeman... I have to think the Bobcats would be favored in the game.

I would agree. SDSU lost a lot of talent and backfilling that much in one offseason seems unlikely.

100% agree. They very well may be really good, but they’re as big of an unknown as anyone right now. Normally a head coaching change at a strong program like that is tough, but not insurmountable. But a second coaching change in 2 years, with all of the staff that left also, AND losing 20+ players to graduation and portal is a mighty big thing to overcome, especially early.

SDSU is going to be a middle of the pack MVFC team this year. You don’t lose that much talent to the portal and maintain status as a top 10 team. Cats will win big in Bozeman in front of 22,000 fans.

Who’s going to finish ahead of them?

They're far from the middle of the pack imo. I think they'll be 3rd behind the evil empire and the yotes.

I should have added a little more explanation. I see 2 to 3 teams at the top of the MVFC - NDSU, USD and Illinois State. Then the next group has SDSU, UND, Youngstown State and UNI. They will beat each other up and end up with similar records. The rest are bottom dwellers. I think there are big gaps between the groups, and SDSU belongs in the second tier. You don’t lose 21 guys to FBS and expect to maintain the same level of success. Just not going to happen.

If it was 7-8 years ago, I’d agree. I just think sdsu is so far ahead of everyone except NDSU that they can take that hit and still beat those teams. They beat every league opponent by 31 points or more except USD and NDSU.

SDSU had 27 seniors last year. 10 of those Seniors were all-conference so they are losing a lot of contributors from that graduating class, including a couple guys who are getting f professional opportunities.

They also lost 21 players to the portal moving up to FBS teams. FBS teams are not taking any FCS guys. They want key contributors.

Tragically, they also lost an incoming FBS transfer who was expected to be key contributor at RB. He unexpectedly passed away this summer.

Add in the coaching change, I just don’t see any way that SDSU is at the top of the FCS, or even the MVFC this year.

MSU is a premier national program with considerable depth, but if we took a hit like that, we would be mediocre.

I should also have clarified a little more. I agree SDSU will be down this year from where they've been. Have to be with that much change. I just think the "bones" are so good and the fcs is so weak, including those other programs in the MVFC, that i think they're still as likely as anyone to finish at least 3rd in the league. Illinois state and UND have the ability to finish above them but have not proven yet that they can reach that level of physicality and athleticism that NDSU, SDSU, and now USD have. Will be a good test for our team, but I think we'll beat them at home.

[seataccat]

We have the best QB HC coach in the conference. I have no doubt who ever Vigen picks will play well.

Vigen is a very good coach, but when it comes to quarterback development, Tim Plough is no slouch. I agree with the no.1 ranking in the pre-season poll for you guys - not much of a doubt there. With all the league unknowns, the big sky should be interesting this year.

I have to agree with this guy. UCD has had a long history of solid QB play. Tim Plough came through that tight-knit system of development under Bob Biggs and understands it very well. They recruit, retain and develop high-end California athletes. I think Vigan is an excellent QB coach, and I hope that one of his younger recruits steps into the role as starter this year.

[NCagalum]

We have the best QB HC coach in the conference. I have no doubt who ever Vigen picks will play well.

Vigen is a very good coach, but when it comes to quarterback development, Tim Plough is no slouch. I agree with the no.1 ranking in the pre-season poll for you guys - not much of a doubt there. With all the league unknowns, the big sky should be interesting this year.

Plough is an excellent coach and UCD has made great progress the past three seasons. What's your take on this year's team? I have a feeling they're not going to have much of, a, if any, drop off from last season.

I think the Ags will be OK despite the obvious graduation losses. Plough is going with a redshirt freshman QB rather than the 5th year senior who has been the backup the past few years - so going with longer term perceived ceiling than experience. Pinnick is much more mobile and athletic than Hastings so will bring a new dimension to QB although of course he doesn’t have the experience. Plough will not to the Hauck QB roulette shuffle unless something really goes sideways and he is choosing a QB with the higher ceiling rather than experience. RB room should be in pretty good shape although you don’t replace someone like Larison. Defensive holes have been plugged with some graduate transfers (Cal LB, Boston College DB, a couple all-league Ivys on the D-line, and a couple more DBs, the model that has been used the past couple years. Portal use other than graduates is not much of a mode at Davis.

The early week 0 game with Mercer in Montgomery should give somewhat of a baseline. With a new QB I expect there will be improvement over the course of the year with some hiccups. Had a great time on Bozeman in 2022 despite the loss.

[TomCat88]

We have the best QB HC coach in the conference. I have no doubt who ever Vigen picks will play well.

Vigen is a very good coach, but when it comes to quarterback development, Tim Plough is no slouch. I agree with the no.1 ranking in the pre-season poll for you guys - not much of a doubt there. With all the league unknowns, the big sky should be interesting this year.

Plough is an excellent coach and UCD has made great progress the past three seasons. What's your take on this year's team? I have a feeling they're not going to have much of, a, if any, drop off from last season.

I think the Ags will be OK despite the obvious graduation losses. Plough is going with a redshirt freshman QB rather than the 5th year senior who has been the backup the past few years - so going with longer term perceived ceiling than experience. Pinnick is much more mobile and athletic than Hastings so will bring a new dimension to QB although of course he doesn’t have the experience. Plough will not to the Hauck QB roulette shuffle unless something really goes sideways and he is choosing a QB with the higher ceiling rather than experience. RB room should be in pretty good shape although you don’t replace someone like Larison. Defensive holes have been plugged with some graduate transfers (Cal LB, Boston College DB, a couple all-league Ivys on the D-line, and a couple more DBs, the model that has been used the past couple years. Portal use other than graduates is not much of a mode at Davis.

The early week 0 game with Mercer in Montgomery should give somewhat of a baseline. With a new QB I expect there will be improvement over the course of the year with some hiccups. Had a great time on Bozeman in 2022 despite the loss.

UCD has always had good football over the years. Great teams in DII. I've been waiting for the day they rose up in the BSC. I think that day is here. One of the understandably least talked about games played at Bobcat Stadium was in 2006 when UCD beat MSU 45-0. People remember beating Colorado in the opener and then losing to Chadron St. before that game. Not only was it an embarrassing loss but it was overshadowed by the first two games. I beleive UCD was transitioning from DII and not playoff eligible that year. As forgettable as that game was, everyone recalls MSU getting its first playoff win since 1984 that year.

I don't vote in the BSC preseason polls, but I picked UCD to win the BSC in 2023. The Larison injury coincided with a couple tough losses early to EWU and UM. Picked you to be second last year. I think you'll be second again this year behind MSU. The model Plough appears to be using is tried and true. For those that don't know Plough was the OC/QB coach at Boise State for two years, then the TE coach at Cal. Prior to that he had about eight years of OC experience at the FCS level. One of the biggest hires in BSC history in terms of his resume. It's probably happened, but I don't recall anyone coming to a BSC team after serving as an OC at a program like Boise State.