MSU's 4-loss case

[GreenDay17]

Green Day,

Have I just read where you are saying that PSU played poorly against the Cats, and that is why they lost. And then in another thread, you are saying they played good and lost a hard fought game to the Griz?

Do you think the Cat defense had anything to do with the outcome? If I remember right, from watching the Griz/PSU game, White came in during the 2nd half and led PSU back to almost winning that game. The same White that came in(for their starter mind you who didn't play against the Griz) and couldn't complete a pass.

This PSU stuff is getting ridiculous. We beat them already, and the national media and computers that continuing to rank them ahead of the Cats, just because two of their losses were huge against 1-A teams, does not make them a good team. It only makes their schedule harder than MSU's. And if MSU would have scheduled Michigan and Ohio St instead of Chadron and UC Davis, our record would still be the same, yet our scoring margin would be worse, and yet the PSU backers think that would make the Cats better? And you cannot argue the reverse as the gospel, because we don't know had PSU scheduled Chadron and UC Davis that they would have won those games. The only thing for sure in that case would be their strength of schedule would be worse.

Go figure?

Don't know that I remember saying that PSU played a good game against Montana. I guess it is possible. Regardless, PSU played better against UM than they did against MSU. The MSU game was a total POS. Some of that was due to MSU's defense but the majority was due to a piss poor effort by the Vikings. Your assessment of White's performance is correct, and demonstrates my assertion that PSU stunk in Bozeman.

Get over the rankings, they are what they are. If somehow MSU manages to beat UM this weekend UM will still be ranked higher than MSU. Deal with it. The polls are not the same as conference standings. In conference is where head-to-head really matters most. In the polls MSU's losses to "bad teams" is what has cost them. If you want things to be different then quit losing to teams that you should beat - DII's and bottom dwellers.

If you really believe that you would be better by scheduling more IA games then go complain to your AD about picking up another DII game for next year.

[JahGriz]

That is a great explanation GreenDay17, between polls and conference standings.
Listen to this guy, he knows what he is talking about.

A good point is that PSU has been consistantly good all year, with little peaks and valleys. But they have only lost to two I-AA teams, didn't even play a DII team, and lost 2 out of 3 to I-A teams.

PSU, IMO, has a better case for making the playoffs than MSU, if MSU loses to UM. Am I right, will that be what happens? who knows. Just one, less than informed guy's opinion.

[theblackgecko]

As a slight tangent from the main topic ... is the lack of gaudy W-L record teams this year a result of more parity in 1-AA, or is it simply a matter of more 1-AA teams playing more 1-A teams? Is virtually everyone taking one or more extra losses for $$$ games?

It's the latter. With the 12th game announcement in the spring, a lot of BCS schools were scrambling to find opponents. Without looking, roughly half the BCS schools signed contracts against I-AA schools in the spring.

[crazycat]

If MSU played PSU 11 times, based on what I saw, MSU would win all 11 games. OK, maybe only 7 of 11. MSU is better than PSU. PSU came in fully loaded. Sawyer was back at QB, MuAmmar Ali was back at RB, their backs were to the wall after losing to UM as was MSU's. They gave each their best shot and PSU's best shot on that day was NOTHING. ZIP. NADA. ZILCH. Why? Because MSU is better than PSU. Not just that day, but decidely on any day. They have identical records and MSU beat them 14-0. What more can you say?

Regardless of all that, I think MSU and PSU should both get in. So the arguement is moot. There will be numerous 7-4 teams come Sat. night and the committee will have to take more than one. Probably 3-4. San Diego isn't going anywhere unless this thing is absolutely corrupt. The only good team they would've played was UCD and now they say they won't play them IF they get in. How conveineint is that? Play UCD and they get beat soundly.

[DCC2MSU]

Why are we debating if we get in with 4 losses again? I say just win this week and it is a done deal. If we can't beat the griz, we won't win the title and like Ricky Bobby says, "if you ain't first, you're last!"

[twentythreeOh4]

I could be wrong but I thought there was a rule about teams from the same conference not playing against each other in the first round.

I don't think that is true. I can remember Montana playing Idaho in the first round before. This was most likely before most of the people over in missoula were on the bandwagon so they cannot remember that.

The set up of the playoff bracket has changed many times over the years. In the '80's the committee specifically matched conference teams in 1st round games. Then in the early '90's they scheduled it so conference teams would not face each other in the 1st round, but could face each other in the 2nd round. By the late '90's they had changed so that conference teams could not meet before the semi-final (3rd) round. After 911, the committee went back to matching conference teams early rounds under the pretext of "regionalism." The last 2 years they've relaxed on the regionalism and have moved most conference matchups to the later rounds.

[old wise one]

Greenday, don't bother reading this, because it pertains to logic, and you can't comprhend that.

For the rest of the fans that can look at numbers alone, here goes:

You must take a few assumptions into account within this outcome.

1. Last week Maine was 14th in the GPI and lost a close game to #1 GPI UMASS, and moved up 3 spots in this weeks rankings. So it would be logical to assume that if the Cats play UM tough and lose, they too would benefit from an increased strength of schedule and move up a spot or two as well.

2. The following is based on New Hampshire beating Maine, James Madison beating Towson, Tenn-Martin winning and getting the OVC auto bid, So. Illinois beating So. Utah, and Coastal Carolina beating Char. Southern.

Based on the two above, here is how I see the selections.

Autos
A-10 - UMASS
BSC - Montana
Southern - App St.
Gateway - Youngstown
OVC - Tenn-Martin
MEAC - Hampton
Patriot - Lehigh/Lafayette(doesn't matter, 1 bid league)
Southland - McNeese/Sam Houston(doesn't matter, 1 bid league)

Guaranteed at large
James Madison
Illinois St.
New Hampshire
So. Illinois
Coastal Carolina
Furman

That leaves two spots left from the following teams:(ranked in predicted GPI finish

Portland St. 7-4
San Diego 10-0
Wofford 7-4
Montana St. 7-4
Towson 7-4
E. Illinois 8-4
Deleware St. 9-2
Tenn St. 7-4

*Cal Poly and UNI would also both be 7-4, but with only 6 division I wins each.

Now I think PSU would get in(although it has been pointed out they only have 2 wins against teams with .500 or better records, including the New Mexico win, compared to the Cats 3(by virtue of beating PSU head to head)). But for all the PSU lovers, I will leave them in at this point.

Now the last spot comes down to San Diego(we SOS, and played absolutely nobody). I know they are the media darlings, but the committee will not let them in with their weak SOS. So if you use the GPI, you would be down to Wofford vs. MSU. MSU is ahead of Wofford by a few spots this week in the GPI, so if they win, and MSU loses a close one to UM, does Wofford jump MSU? Only time will tell. Also, I think 3 teams from the BSC would happen before 3 teams from the Southern, as the BSC is ranked ahead of the Southern in Conference GPI. Towson wouldn't be close as well, but would the committee take a 4th team from the A-10 that had a 7-4 record? Possible. E. Illinois is also a possibility, but they are pretty far down in the GPI rankings.

So, there would be a chance that a 7-4 MSU squad could get in. I will call it slim, but it is a chance. And the above winning scenarios I used in this model, are definitely not that unlikely. All MSU fans need to pray that the committee sees what a joke San Diego's schedule was, and not reward them. Plus as we have shown and debated, the PSU vs. MSU decision could go either way.

I also must clarify, that my choice is to beat UM and host a game, but we will find out soon enough.

[GrizinWashington]

Becareful looking at and comparing GPI ratings, especially comparing MSU to only one team. Remember that for the computer rankings (a large portion of the GPI ratings), games below the DI level do not figure into the equation. Therefore, the cats loss to Chradron is not included in their GPI, and they would probably lose out on a head-to-head consideration of teams with similar GPIs for that reason.

[GreenDay17]

Old wise one - not only could I comprehend your post, I also understood what you said (just wanted you to see that I know the meaning of "comprehend").

New Hampshire could very easily lose to Maine, making them both 7-4. That would remove one of your "guaranteed at large" teams and then you could add UNH to your pool of teams attempting to receive 3 spots.

There is a chance that UNH would be still chosen, although MSU could make a very strong case that the win over 2-9 Colorado is as good as the UNH win over 3-8 Northwestern.

Eastern Illinois should receive strong consideration with 1A losses at Illinois and Hawaii, and #6 Illinois State (by 14) and #12 UT Martin (by 6).

It would be great if both MSU and PSU were invited to the playoffs. If it can only be one or the other, the committee will more than likely take PSU - not because of what PSU did but rather what PSU didn't do, which is lose to a DII and 2 1AA's who have won 4 and 3 games.

[old wise one]

It's only Sagarin that doesn't count non division 1 games. Go to 1-AA.org and look at MSU's record in the gpi list, it has them at 7-3.

Also, if MSU is looked upon so negatively for losing to Chadron, UC Davis, and Eastern, what's that say about PSU for losing to the CAts?

[crazycat]

I'd like a list of all the conferences in basketball, football be they college or pro that don't have head-to-head listed as the No. 1 tie-breaker if there's a tie. How many of those are there? None? That's what I thought. Anyway that's where you start. Head-to-head. If that doesn't break the tie, then you go into some other scenarios. But they never use GPI or strength of schedule to break a tie ahead of head-to-head. Those are usually way down the list barely above a coin toss.

Because they're in the SEC Arkansas will have played a tougher schedule than USC when the season is over, but do you think they'll move ahead in the BCS standings after losing 50-14 head-to-head?

[GreenDay17]

I'd like a list of all the conferences in basketball, football be they college or pro that don't have head-to-head listed as the No. 1 tie-breaker if there's a tie. How many of those are there? None? That's what I thought. Anyway that's where you start. Head-to-head. If that doesn't break the tie, then you go into some other scenarios. But they never use GPI or strength of schedule to break a tie ahead of head-to-head. Those are usually way down the list barely above a coin toss.

Because they're in the SEC Arkansas will have played a tougher schedule than USC when the season is over, but do you think they'll move ahead in the BCS standings after losing 50-14 head-to-head?

Tell it to the selection committee, both in 1AA and March Madness.

I know from your perspective it sucks, but it's not a new way of looking at it for the committee.

It will also suck to be a San Diego fan and get left out of the playoffs even though they may remain undefeated. Oh well.

[crazycat]

I'd like a list of all the conferences in basketball, football be they college or pro that don't have head-to-head listed as the No. 1 tie-breaker if there's a tie. How many of those are there? None? That's what I thought. Anyway that's where you start. Head-to-head. If that doesn't break the tie, then you go into some other scenarios. But they never use GPI or strength of schedule to break a tie ahead of head-to-head. Those are usually way down the list barely above a coin toss.

Because they're in the SEC Arkansas will have played a tougher schedule than USC when the season is over, but do you think they'll move ahead in the BCS standings after losing 50-14 head-to-head?

Tell it to the selection committee, both in 1AA and March Madness.

I know from your perspective it sucks, but it's not a new way of looking at it for the committee.

It will also suck to be a San Diego fan and get left out of the playoffs even though they may remain undefeated. Oh well.

OK. Show me your example of March Madness that has a team with the same record as another team and that beat that other team, but didn't go to MM.

[GreenDay17]

I'd like a list of all the conferences in basketball, football be they college or pro that don't have head-to-head listed as the No. 1 tie-breaker if there's a tie. How many of those are there? None? That's what I thought. Anyway that's where you start. Head-to-head. If that doesn't break the tie, then you go into some other scenarios. But they never use GPI or strength of schedule to break a tie ahead of head-to-head. Those are usually way down the list barely above a coin toss.

Because they're in the SEC Arkansas will have played a tougher schedule than USC when the season is over, but do you think they'll move ahead in the BCS standings after losing 50-14 head-to-head?

Tell it to the selection committee, both in 1AA and March Madness.

I know from your perspective it sucks, but it's not a new way of looking at it for the committee.

It will also suck to be a San Diego fan and get left out of the playoffs even though they may remain undefeated. Oh well.

OK. Show me your example of March Madness that has a team with the same record as another team and that beat that other team, but didn't go to MM.

Last season Hofstra was 24-6 and George Mason was 23-7 at the end of the CAA conference tourney and before brackets were chosen. Hofstra was 2-0 against George Mason with the last victory coming in the CAA conference tourney semifinal.

George Mason was chosen to the NCAA tourney and Hofstra went to the NIT. BTW, Hofstra went 3-1 in the NIT while George Mason was a Final Four participant (they lost to eventual champion Florida after beating Michigan St, North Carolina, Witchita St, and UConn).

[twentythreeOh4]

OK. Show me your example of March Madness that has a team with the same record as another team and that beat that other team, but didn't go to MM.

Last season Hofstra was 24-6 and George Mason was 23-7 at the end of the CAA conference tourney and before brackets were chosen. Hofstra was 2-0 against George Mason with the last victory coming in the CAA conference tourney semifinal.

George Mason was chosen to the NCAA tourney and Hofstra went to the NIT. BTW, Hofstra went 3-1 in the NIT while George Mason was a Final Four participant (they lost to eventual champion Florida after beating Michigan St, North Carolina, Witchita St, and UConn).

Burned!!

[GrizinWashington]

It's ALL about RPIs and SOSs to the NCAA BB selection committee. I bet they barely consider head to head games.

Let's just consider the ridiculous. Let's assume Ga Southern had found a way to beat Duke last night, and at the end of the season, both end up
26-5 and lose in the finals of their conference tournaments. Do you think there is ANY way GSU gets seeded ahead of Duke? Uh huh.

I suspect it's similar (although not to the same degree) with football. They are going to look at what a team's season of work looks like, not how they fared on one day. Personally, I'd much prefer to see the cats in the playoffs than PSU. But honestly, if I were on the selection committee, my vote would be for PSU over MSU.

[MSU01]

To be honest, I think that PSU has a stronger case for an at-large bid at 7-4 than would MSU. A head-to-head win can only count for so much, and you can't deny that MSU has 3 bad losses whereas PSU has none. Of course, the committee always seems to put in at least one team that is a surprise to most people, and I certainly hope that will be MSU if we don't get the autobid!

[crazycat]

OK. Show me your example of March Madness that has a team with the same record as another team and that beat that other team, but didn't go to MM.

Last season Hofstra was 24-6 and George Mason was 23-7 at the end of the CAA conference tourney and before brackets were chosen. Hofstra was 2-0 against George Mason with the last victory coming in the CAA conference tourney semifinal.

George Mason was chosen to the NCAA tourney and Hofstra went to the NIT. BTW, Hofstra went 3-1 in the NIT while George Mason was a Final Four participant (they lost to eventual champion Florida after beating Michigan St, North Carolina, Witchita St, and UConn).

Burned!!

Nicely done. I do recall that Hofstra and others were a tad upset about that. But GMU proved themselves worthy no doubt about it. You'd have to agree that worked out pretty well for the MM selection committee. Here's hoping the I-AA committee matches that effort.

Unlike last year when MSU beat UM soundly and they finished with identical 5-2 marks in the Sky, but UM went to the playoffs anyway and got beat real bad at home. There was relatively little commotion over that one. I doubt that GMU was taken over Hofstra for financial reasons.

[crazycat]

Greenday, don't bother reading this, because it pertains to logic, and you can't comprhend that.

For the rest of the fans that can look at numbers alone, here goes:

You must take a few assumptions into account within this outcome.

1. Last week Maine was 14th in the GPI and lost a close game to #1 GPI UMASS, and moved up 3 spots in this weeks rankings. So it would be logical to assume that if the Cats play UM tough and lose, they too would benefit from an increased strength of schedule and move up a spot or two as well.

2. The following is based on New Hampshire beating Maine, James Madison beating Towson, Tenn-Martin winning and getting the OVC auto bid, So. Illinois beating So. Utah, and Coastal Carolina beating Char. Southern.

Based on the two above, here is how I see the selections.

Autos
A-10 - UMASS
BSC - Montana
Southern - App St.
Gateway - Youngstown
OVC - Tenn-Martin
MEAC - Hampton
Patriot - Lehigh/Lafayette(doesn't matter, 1 bid league)
Southland - McNeese/Sam Houston(doesn't matter, 1 bid league)

Guaranteed at large
James Madison
Illinois St.
New Hampshire
So. Illinois
Coastal Carolina
Furman

That leaves two spots left from the following teams:(ranked in predicted GPI finish

Portland St. 7-4
San Diego 10-0
Wofford 7-4
Montana St. 7-4
Towson 7-4
E. Illinois 8-4
Deleware St. 9-2
Tenn St. 7-4

*Cal Poly and UNI would also both be 7-4, but with only 6 division I wins each.

Now I think PSU would get in(although it has been pointed out they only have 2 wins against teams with .500 or better records, including the New Mexico win, compared to the Cats 3(by virtue of beating PSU head to head)). But for all the PSU lovers, I will leave them in at this point.

Now the last spot comes down to San Diego(we SOS, and played absolutely nobody). I know they are the media darlings, but the committee will not let them in with their weak SOS. So if you use the GPI, you would be down to Wofford vs. MSU. MSU is ahead of Wofford by a few spots this week in the GPI, so if they win, and MSU loses a close one to UM, does Wofford jump MSU? Only time will tell. Also, I think 3 teams from the BSC would happen before 3 teams from the Southern, as the BSC is ranked ahead of the Southern in Conference GPI. Towson wouldn't be close as well, but would the committee take a 4th team from the A-10 that had a 7-4 record? Possible. E. Illinois is also a possibility, but they are pretty far down in the GPI rankings.

So, there would be a chance that a 7-4 MSU squad could get in. I will call it slim, but it is a chance. And the above winning scenarios I used in this model, are definitely not that unlikely. All MSU fans need to pray that the committee sees what a joke San Diego's schedule was, and not reward them. Plus as we have shown and debated, the PSU vs. MSU decision could go either way.

I also must clarify, that my choice is to beat UM and host a game, but we will find out soon enough.

I missed this post, but it sums it up the best in this thread. It'll probably come down to PSU, Cst. Caro., EIU/Tenn-Martin, Towson, Wofford and MSU for the final three spots. But wins by No. Iowa, Maine and Towson would probably wipe all six out. If all three lose, I say the chances are pretty good that MSU gets in with a close loss to UM.

[tampa_griz]

Nicely done. I do recall that Hofstra and others were a tad upset about that. But GMU proved themselves worthy no doubt about it. You'd have to agree that worked out pretty well for the MM selection committee. Here's hoping the I-AA committee matches that effort.

Unlike last year when MSU beat UM soundly and they finished with identical 5-2 marks in the Sky, but UM went to the playoffs anyway and got beat real bad at home. There was relatively little commotion over that one. I doubt that GMU was taken over Hofstra for financial reasons.

If our total W/L record (and not just BSC record) matched yours I'd agree but that wasn't the case. Two words......Portland State. If you would have beat them you'd have been in. But as it stood you were 7-4 overall and we were 8-3. As noted earlier, the entire seasons are compared. Not just one or two games.

If Team A has one more win than Team B and there has to be a decision as to which one is chosen for playoffs.....Team A is going to be chosen unless their SOS was a complete joke.