Cat/Griz Game, few thoughts/prediction.

Htowngriz · Post by **Htowngriz** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:42 am

catsrback76 wrote:For all the normal reasons, the Griz have the advantage in a big way for the Conference title game. They have home field advantage. They are undefeated in the conference. They are ranked higher than we are. That gives the advantage to the Griz.

Will they win? probably... UNLESS we run the ball for more than 100 yards with Groves, Mason and co. If we don't run the ball, then that puts too much pressure on Rolo to have to make plays with his arm. Can he? Yes, but the odds of that turning out well are not good unless we can gash the Griz with our speedy RB's.

Assuming we will get our 100, then Rolovich will be able to spread the ball around. I do think that Jefferson will make some monster plays with his talent and his speed on the carpet.

The defense has to stay fresh and needs to put CONSTANT pressure on Slogger. He can't elude the passrush we can get to him with our stunting LB's. Just like the Colts did to the Pats on Monday night, Brady had no time to pick them apart. Slogger will pick us apart unless we blitz, stunt and make him MOVE.
The more SLogger moves, the more we win!!!

What is the ONLY reason we win? We are playing on the carpet! Team speed will win it for the Cats.

Unlike others I say this goes into the 30's-- Cats 33- UM 30

This will be fun to watch and will be very bemotional win for us.

No smack intended, but aren't you contradicting yourself?

MSU Toddler · Post by **MSU Toddler** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:27 am

my honest thoughts (and opinion - so yes, i may be wrong) . . .

Cats O vs. griz D: i think the griz D is one of the best in the nation, though i don't think they are as good at defending the pass as they do the run if the pass rush can be contained. the Cats O has the ability to put together a strong attack through the air, but needs enough of a rushing game to keep the griz D guessing. i imagine there will be some trick plays and new schemes given the two weeks off that the griz D will have to make some unforseen adjustments (which they will do before half is over), but it will work to the Cats advantage enough to score. i'm guessing about 70-100 yards total rush and 150-200 pass with 3 touchdowns OR 2 touchdown and 1 field goal. again, this is based on who shows up to play - meaning the Cats O needs to be on its game (the griz D will). key: Cats O needs to avoid the turnover deep in its own territory (i.e. Cal Poly).

griz O vs. Cats D: griz O has struggled and i don't see it changing. the Cats D has some holes and occassional let downs (see zone coverage over the short middle). i see the griz putting together the occassional rush, but that will be contained (no scores and 60-80 rushing). i think Swogger will struggle but get some yards and maybe a score through the air. the wild card factors include berquist (looked good on saturday) and trick plays. bh will use them and one or two will work for some yards, but the Cats will be ready. griz score 1 touchdown and 2 field goals. key: Cats need a strong pash rush and defensive effort to through the griz O out of stride.

special teams: no problems for the griz, so potential issue for the Cats (punting). i'm hoping these are squared away by Kramer so they don't play a factor - but easily could.

based on all the above b.s.:

Cats: 17
griz: 16

SeeHarg · Post by **SeeHarg** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:59 am

One quick correction:
unless something totally crazy happens in Greeley this weekend, the Brawl won't be for all the marbles. For the Cats, it'll be for another co-championship. Outright title possible only for Montana.

Tough one to call. I can't see either run game really doing much. Montana totally shut down one of the best in the country last week.

The one thing that might be a predictor, though:
MT turnover margin - +9
MSU turnover margin - -4

For what it's worth.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:01 pm

SeeHarg wrote:One quick correction:
unless something totally crazy happens in Greeley this weekend, the Brawl won't be for all the marbles. For the Cats, it'll be for another co-championship. Outright title possible only for Montana.

Tough one to call. I can't see either run game really doing much. Montana totally shut down one of the best in the country last week.

The one thing that might be a predictor, though:
MT turnover margin - +9
MSU turnover margin - -4

For what it's worth.

Yeah, that turnover margin says a lot to me. The Griz have been living/winning because of that so if they don't get those GREAT GIFTS by the offense I see the Cats outscoring them in this one.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 1:30 pm

That's not really fair. Defenses earn turnovers much more often than they are gifted them.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 1:38 pm

BozoneCat wrote:That's not really fair. Defenses earn turnovers much more often than they are gifted them.

That is true, but we just can't let them earn them against us in this game. The CATS need to take care of the ball. The Griz defense has been keeping the Griz offense from being exposed that is for sure. We need to make sure we take care of the rock and I think our offense will put up enough points for us to win. Similiar to last year.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:30 pm

CARDIAC_CATS wrote:
BozoneCat wrote:That's not really fair. Defenses earn turnovers much more often than they are gifted them.
That is true, but we just can't let them earn them against us in this game. The CATS need to take care of the ball. The Griz defense has been keeping the Griz offense from being exposed that is for sure. We need to make sure we take care of the rock and I think our offense will put up enough points for us to win. Similiar to last year.

I'm more worried about us gifting them over, as opposed to one of their guys making a great play. Again, we can't control what their guys do, so if someone makes a great play, then more power to him. We do have control over what we do, though, so not making turnovers like we did this last weekend would be ideal (i.e., not throwing the ball into double/triple coverage when you are rolling outside the pocket and looking down your receiver the whole way).

WalkOn79 · Post by **WalkOn79** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 6:49 pm

SeeHarg wrote:One quick correction:
unless something totally crazy happens in Greeley this weekend, the Brawl won't be for all the marbles. For the Cats, it'll be for another co-championship. Outright title possible only for Montana.

Maybe not for all the marbles, but for:

- Auto-bid for the Cats
- Playoff run with home-field for the Griz.
- Bragging rights for the next 12 months for both.

So, how much closer to all the marbles can you get?

tetoncat · Post by **tetoncat** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:32 am

i think you will see some trick plays as the Griz always state the playoffs are there main objective and they have reached that. They may be playing for homfield throughout but you have to believe that if they lose they only drop a few spots and will get at least 2 home games anyway. Cats on the other hand need to win. In situations like this the Griz can take some chances and throw some new things out, both to make playoff opponents have to work on defending it and hoping to surprise the Cats.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:10 am

I've been thinking the same thing, teton. Assuming they win @ UNC, the Griz won't have anything to gain by beating us but bragging rights.

Because of that I think the Griz will take some extra chances; blitzes, trick plays, fake kicks, etc. We all know by now that Bobby LOVES to run gadget plays and I believe he will pull out all the stops in this one. If they get burned for a few big plays and/or scores early, then they'll probably tone it down a bit but as long as the Griz are in the game (or significantly ahead), I think the Cats better be prepared for anything & everything, ESPECIALLY on special teams...

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:31 am

El_Gato wrote:I've been thinking the same thing, teton. Assuming they win @ UNC, the Griz won't have anything to gain by beating us but bragging rights.

Because of that I think the Griz will take some extra chances; blitzes, trick plays, fake kicks, etc. We all know by now that Bobby LOVES to run gadget plays and I believe he will pull out all the stops in this one. If they get burned for a few big plays and/or scores early, then they'll probably tone it down a bit but as long as the Griz are in the game (or significantly ahead), I think the Cats better be prepared for anything & everything, ESPECIALLY on special teams...

I totally disagree. Only the top 2 teams are guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs. They really don't want to go on the road in the playoffs. If we beat them they'll drop at least 3 or 4 spots. This game will be huge for them regarding their nat'l championship aspirations.

grzh8r · Post by **grzh8r** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:44 am

catatac wrote: I totally disagree. Only the top 2 teams are guaranteed home field throughout the playoffs. They really don't want to go on the road in the playoffs. If we beat them they'll drop at least 3 or 4 spots. This game will be huge for them regarding their nat'l championship aspirations.

Unfortunately the griz will never drop 3 or 4 spots... if we beat them I don't see them dropping lower than 4th.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:59 am

Agreed, h8r,

a loss to us will NOT drop the Griz out of the top 4 which means they automatically get the first 2 rounds @ home. Remember what happened in 04? The seeds above them lost out and the Griz got all 3 rounds @ WaGriz.

A loss to us would cost them MAYBE just the semifinal round, so I think the Griz coaching staff is going to play like they've got nothing to lose. I'm quite certain that Bobby wants to beat the Cats this season VERY BADLY and I think his gameplan will reflect that.

BozoneCat · Post by **BozoneCat** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 1:41 pm

Don't call me a griz sympathizer or anything... but I feel that, considering the records of other ranked teams this season (#3-10), the schedule the griz played, the $$$ factor that nobody can deny - if the griz beat UNC this weekend, I think they have earned the right to get home games for at least two games, if not three (that is, if they won those games) regardless of whether they lost to us. A 9-2 record with a loss to a solid Iowa team is nothing to take lightly, that is very impressive and deserves to be rewarded. If there were a bunch of other 9-2 teams with similar schedules, then we could argue it a little, but there just aren't going to be that many of those teams this year. Montana, much as we hate them, has earned its reputation within the playoff community, and when you factor in how much money they can bring in, you just have to tip your cap to them.

... okay, I'm going to go throw up now.

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:10 pm

BozoneCat wrote:Don't call me a griz sympathizer or anything... but I feel that, considering the records of other ranked teams this season (#3-10), the schedule the griz played, the $$$ factor that nobody can deny - if the griz beat UNC this weekend, I think they have earned the right to get home games for at least two games, if not three (that is, if they won those games) regardless of whether they lost to us. A 9-2 record with a loss to a solid Iowa team is nothing to take lightly, that is very impressive and deserves to be rewarded. If there were a bunch of other 9-2 teams with similar schedules, then we could argue it a little, but there just aren't going to be that many of those teams this year. Montana, much as we hate them, has earned its reputation within the playoff community, and when you factor in how much money they can bring in, you just have to tip your cap to them.

... okay, I'm going to go throw up now.

I don't know about that. I would agree with you if some of these other teams lose, but if they all win out, I would say that they should all be ranked ahead of UM after we beat them...

App. State
Mass
James Madison
Youngstown
Ill. State

And possibly a couple others that have zero or 1 loss. That means UM definitely deserves 1 playoff game, possibly 2 - probably not 3. JMO.

Htowngriz · Post by **Htowngriz** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:19 pm

catatac wrote:
BozoneCat wrote:Don't call me a griz sympathizer or anything... but I feel that, considering the records of other ranked teams this season (#3-10), the schedule the griz played, the $$$ factor that nobody can deny - if the griz beat UNC this weekend, I think they have earned the right to get home games for at least two games, if not three (that is, if they won those games) regardless of whether they lost to us. A 9-2 record with a loss to a solid Iowa team is nothing to take lightly, that is very impressive and deserves to be rewarded. If there were a bunch of other 9-2 teams with similar schedules, then we could argue it a little, but there just aren't going to be that many of those teams this year. Montana, much as we hate them, has earned its reputation within the playoff community, and when you factor in how much money they can bring in, you just have to tip your cap to them.

... okay, I'm going to go throw up now.
I don't know about that. I would agree with you if some of these other teams lose, but if they all win out, I would say that they should all be ranked ahead of UM after we beat them...

App. State
Mass
James Madison
Youngstown
Ill. State

And possibly a couple others that have zero or 1 loss. That means UM definitely deserves 1 playoff game, possibly 2 - probably not 3. JMO.

No smack intended, do you really think USD should be ranked above us if they go undefeated and we lose to you?

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:27 pm

No - I don't think I mentioned San Diego, did I?

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 5:34 pm

CARDIAC_CATS wrote:
BozoneCat wrote:That's not really fair. Defenses earn turnovers much more often than they are gifted them.
That is true, but we just can't let them earn them against us in this game. The CATS need to take care of the ball. The Griz defense has been keeping the Griz offense from being exposed that is for sure. We need to make sure we take care of the rock and I think our offense will put up enough points for us to win. Similiar to last year.

If you would rather gift them, thats ok with us.

theblackgecko · Post by **theblackgecko** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 10:17 pm

I thought I would expand catatac's list. Looking at the following teams with record, losses, and remaining game(s):

App. State (9-1, loss at NC St.): @WCU
Mass (8-1, loss at Navy): Maine, Hofstra
James Madison (8-1, loss at App. State): @Villanova, @Towson
Youngstown (8-2, losses at Penn State, UNI): @WKU
Ill. State (7-2 losses at K-State, Youngstown State): @Indiana State, @UNI

Htowngriz · Post by **Htowngriz** » Wed Nov 08, 2006 11:03 pm

Htowngriz wrote:
catatac wrote:
BozoneCat wrote:Don't call me a griz sympathizer or anything... but I feel that, considering the records of other ranked teams this season (#3-10), the schedule the griz played, the $$$ factor that nobody can deny - if the griz beat UNC this weekend, I think they have earned the right to get home games for at least two games, if not three (that is, if they won those games) regardless of whether they lost to us. A 9-2 record with a loss to a solid Iowa team is nothing to take lightly, that is very impressive and deserves to be rewarded. If there were a bunch of other 9-2 teams with similar schedules, then we could argue it a little, but there just aren't going to be that many of those teams this year. Montana, much as we hate them, has earned its reputation within the playoff community, and when you factor in how much money they can bring in, you just have to tip your cap to them.

... okay, I'm going to go throw up now.
I don't know about that. I would agree with you if some of these other teams lose, but if they all win out, I would say that they should all be ranked ahead of UM after we beat them...

App. State
Mass
James Madison
Youngstown
Ill. State

And possibly a couple others that have zero or 1 loss. That means UM definitely deserves 1 playoff game, possibly 2 - probably not 3. JMO.
No smack intended, do you really think USD should be ranked above us if they go undefeated and we lose to you?

I assumed you were including them