Cats vs. South Dakota Predictions

[seataccat]

Everyone seems to think the USD defense is really great. They didn't impress me against Tarlton State. But I do think their offense is going to be a huge challenge. I think the cats are in for a high scoring dog fight.
Cats 38
Coyotes 32

[catatac]

SD is a very very good team. I'll take the 'Cats in a squeaker, 31-28.

Yes, agree. I was really hoping UCD could win that one, and I don't understand the posters saying things like, "really didn't want to face UCD again". We dominated them at their place, sure as hell weren't going to let them come into our place and beat us. Plus we just proved that whole "tough to beat a team twice" concept just seems like nonsense.

[TomCat88]

Everyone seems to think the USD defense is really great. They didn't impress me against Tarlton State. But I do think their offense is going to be a huge challenge. I think the cats are in for a high scoring dog fight.
Cats 38
Coyotes 32

They struggled against UCD once the Aggies stopped trying to take deep drops. They seemed to be winning the LOS. Plough is a good coach and his adjustments kept the game from getting out of hand. So many turnovers in the game to really come away with strong assessment of anything.

[CelticCat]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

[BFcatfan]

We win by 24.

You and Vigo are predicting 3 score victories. Makes me feel better.

I’m picking 3 scores also if that helps

[BelligerentBobcat]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

NDSU and SDSU both have backup QB’s that they use primarily as runners. Obviously nobody is like Tommy, but they’re used to the +1 run game.

I actually think we’ll see a lot more passing this game. Tommy is more than capable.

[RootinfortheCats]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

NDSU and SDSU both have backup QB’s that they use primarily as runners. Obviously nobody is like Tommy, but they’re used to the +1 run game.

I actually think we’ll see a lot more passing this game. Tommy is more than capable.

I agree they have seen the +1 run game, but not quite like the perimeter threat Tommy is. I bet they are seeing it on film and absolutely scheming to limit him.

I also agree with @CelticCat that fly sweeps could be really effective, especially followed up by play action to the TEs.

In any case, this will be the closest game of the year (I don’t count the fluke “comeback” by Davis).

Cats win.

[catatac]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

NDSU and SDSU both have backup QB’s that they use primarily as runners. Obviously nobody is like Tommy, but they’re used to the +1 run game.

I actually think we’ll see a lot more passing this game. Tommy is more than capable.

I agree they have seen the +1 run game, but not quite like the perimeter threat Tommy is. I bet they are seeing it on film and absolutely scheming to limit him.

I also agree with @CelticCat that fly sweeps could be really effective, especially followed up by play action to the TEs.

In any case, this will be the closest game of the year (I don’t count the fluke “comeback” by Davis).

Cats win.

Uhhh, well I hope it's not as close as the UNM game where the Cats were down by 17 points earlier... then down by 17 points AGAIN in the 4th quarter... yikes.

[RootinfortheCats]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

NDSU and SDSU both have backup QB’s that they use primarily as runners. Obviously nobody is like Tommy, but they’re used to the +1 run game.

I actually think we’ll see a lot more passing this game. Tommy is more than capable.

I agree they have seen the +1 run game, but not quite like the perimeter threat Tommy is. I bet they are seeing it on film and absolutely scheming to limit him.

I also agree with @CelticCat that fly sweeps could be really effective, especially followed up by play action to the TEs.

In any case, this will be the closest game of the year (I don’t count the fluke “comeback” by Davis).

Cats win.

Uhhh, well I hope it's not as close as the UNM game where the Cats were down by 17 points earlier... then down by 17 points AGAIN in the 4th quarter... yikes.

Hahaha.

Sorry closest FCS win. Davis still doesn’t count.

[Augustus]

40-21.

ESPN has us at -7.5. I think that'll change over the course of the week. (It's already up to -9 in the two hours since I last looked).

They'll make the Cats work for it, but our team will be just too much for them to handle over the course of the game.

[CodyCat]

This is a hard one. Sometimes I feel like it’s going to be a three TD win. Other times my gut says it’s going to be close. I’m going with the Davis, Jones, and Polidore to play significant minutes.

Cats 35
Yotes 22

[HogheadCats]

Bobcats--27
Coyotes--16

[TomCat88]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

MSU had mixed results running vs MVFC teams last year. Subpar vs sdsu (48-211) and good vs ndsu (43-296 w/o Davis). SDSU was and still is an elite defense.

[KageRage]

Slow start for both offenses, but Cats win the middle 8 on the way to a 38-27 victory.

[Zoo_Cat]

USD defense is susceptible to the pass, pretty stout against the run. But MSU run offense is a style I don't think is used much in the Valley so it'll be interesting to see how it lines up. I could see a situation like UTM where we avoid running straight into the teeth and see if we can use our speed to get to the edge. Tommy, Ty, Jones around the edge.

They also won't have faced a mobile QB like Tommy, he's not a Valley QB.

MSU had mixed results running vs MVFC teams last year. Subpar vs sdsu (48-211) and good vs ndsu (43-296 w/o Davis). SDSU was and still is an elite defense.

You know you are pretty blessed in the run game when running for 211 yards against the best run defense in the Country is considered subpar. We did struggle in the short yardage situations in that game. If we pick up 10 more yards in third and short situations, we probably win by 7 and would have less concern with our ability to run on the MVFC. The biggest difference this year is Tommy's ability to consistently move the chains through the air. That was the biggest flaw in the SDSU game last year, whether it was because we couldn't execute on the throws or our OC did not have confidence to call the plays, which resulted in an extremely conservative gameplan.

[nanacat]

I listened to their coach's press conference. He had pretty good answers to the questions on how to slow down the Cats offense I thought. Not sure it'll work all game. He basically said, like coach Eck said of Idaho, they needed to be perfect in all 3 phases. That didn't work so great for Idaho but I feel like the USD coach is a bit more grounded/old school. Guess we'll see. My prediction is the starters will play all 4 quarters and the game could come down to the last possession. I truly hope I'm wrong and it's 31-7 Cats at the half, but I'm not feeling that yet.

[coloradocat]

They lost at SDSU by 3 in overtime and beat NDSU by 1 at home. I expect a closer game than we've seen this year but still never a doubt.

Bobcats 31
Coyotes 21

[aucat]

So far I have been wrong with every one of my predictions in that I have understated our margins of victory. However, I'm going to stick to my gut feelings. And my gut tells me that this game is going to go down to the wire with the difference being a turnover here or there or or made or missed field goal, etc. Personally, I HATE such a game. I much prefer the big margins of victory. But if you look at SD's record, their stats, etc. No way should we blow this team out, at least on paper.

I am nervously going to predict that we prevail. Cats 31, Yotes 28.

[coochorama42]

USD played four good FCS schools this year. The common theme that I see is they really don't lose the turnover battle, they don't commit many penalties, and they don't typically lose special teams matchups.

In their loss to SDSU, both teams turned the ball over one time and both teams had a missed FG. The turnover for SDSU was huge though as it was returned for a touchdown. USD also stopped SDSU on 4th down once. USD only had 5 penalties for 26 yards. The return game was pretty neutral.

In their win against NDSU, neither team turned the ball over. USD only had 4 penalties for 41 yards. They also had a slight edge in the return game.

In their win against Tarleton, they had a +3 turnover margin and a 4th down stop. They missed a 48 yard field goal at the end of the half. Again, only 4 penalties for 55 yards.

Against Davis, they were +3 in turnover margin and had a 4th down stop. Only 3 penalties for 40 yards in this game.


After looking at all of this, I really have to believe that this is a very well coached football team that lets teams beat themselves. More than anything else, MSU just needs to play the game it has all year. If they can limit their mistakes, they have more talent and experience than USD.

28-17.

[wbtfg]

From ChatGPT

Based on the data and analysis available, my prediction for the Montana State vs. South Dakota semifinal game is:

Montana State 34, South Dakota 24.

This estimate factors in Montana State’s strong offense and home-field advantage, alongside South Dakota’s solid defense. However, in competitive matchups like this, small moments can swing the final outcome.