Big Sky ranking after fourth week

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 5:56 pm

All I have to say is lie, cheat, steal your way to Cheney for that EWU game. We need a huge number of fans over there!!!

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 7:24 pm

All I can say about it is, until somebody actually beats the Griz, they still get my vote for No. 1. They my have won ugly and they may not look very good, but no one else has looked so great. One thing that has changed, however, is the fact that they are no longer the shoo-in winners of the Big Sky anymore. I don't think this is just a phase, but a permanent thing. No more winning the league by default. Matt Daugherty doesn't realize this yet. UM now has just two home league games remaining and those are vs. two tough-assed teams in EW and PSU. They have two road dome games ISU and NAU. And finish with three on the road. As tough as all that is, I still won't pick against them. They've earned my respect. If they win this week and next (EWU), then everything is back the way it always was.

1 - UM
2 - EW
3 - MSU
4 - ISU
5 - PSU
6 - WSU
7 - SSU
8 - NAU

If ISU beats UM this week, then I move them all the way to the top and UM falls to fourth. I'm not even sure EWU can beat NAU in Flagstaff this week. Five weeks into the season and I'm further from picking a winner than I was before this year started. I was thinking UM, EW, MSU and PSU, but now ISU is in it and I'm not sure WSU is out of it.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 7:32 pm

iaafan wrote:All I can say about it is, until somebody actually beats the Griz, they still get my vote for No. 1. They my have won ugly and they may not look very good, but no one else has looked so great. One thing that has changed, however, is the fact that they are no longer the shoo-in winners of the Big Sky anymore. I don't think this is just a phase, but a permanent thing. No more winning the league by default. Matt Daugherty doesn't realize this yet...

Isn't that a GIANT contradiction? If Daugherty doesn't realize this yet, how come you're doing the EXACT SAME THING by picking them "just because they're the Griz".

Did you bother to look at the stats? Did you see that Weber gained nearly 500 yards yesterday? Or that a running team's QB threw for 373 yards vs the so-called best Big Sky defense? The D WAS their strength, and Weber just showed MSU, PSU, EWU, Cal Poly, and ISU that their pass D is every bit as soft as it was a year ago (dead-last in I-AA).

Oh, and let's not forget that they'll be breaking in a new QB against a defense that sacked Meyer 7 times and forced 4 EWU turnovers a week ago...

Unless ISU self-destructs with 4 or more turnovers, they'll DOMINATE the Griz. The Griz are about to FINALLY hit the meat of their schedule and when they leave October 4-4, we'll see that Hauck has done more damage than anyone could have imagined (and we'll be able to hear wolfman laughing all the way in Bozeman...).

Obzerver · Post by **Obzerver** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 8:19 pm

Not getting ahead of myself cause with EWU injury bug(we've already burned five red shirts to date and we lost another three starters vs PSU) the Eagles could end up with a losing record but as I see it three big games come to mind(four if you count the PSU vs MSU game in Portland). 1) EWU vs UM in two weeks at WA Griz. EWU plays at NAU next week while UM is at ISU with a new QB. Meyer had his worst game two years ago at UM and is looking for redemption. 2) MSU vs EWU in Cheney. The week prior EWU travels to Cali to play a tough Cal Poly(oh yeah, you know Cal Poly) team while MSU stays home for Sac State game...MSU advantage. 3) MSU vs UM at the end with all sorts of possible scenarios. Even if the QB from UM gets seasoned by then it's still a home game for MSU. The tough part is you guys play in Cheney the week before while UM has a road game vs Sac State. 4) What's all this mean? Squat really...you guys beat WSU next week and we'll take out NAU while UM breaks in a new QB vs a strong ISU team...

Yung1Gun · Post by **Yung1Gun** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:19 pm

I believe I already said it, the top three in the Big Sky can be shaken out any way, the top three being MSU, EWU and UM. The biggest reason I gave it to UM is because 1) They get EWU at home, granted EWU plays the Griz strong at home, I still think Washington Griz stadium is worth a W there 2) The Griz have Lex Hilliard, as the season wears on, and the weather gets worse, you will see RUNNING GAMES not passing games dominate, this doesn't bode well for a late November game 3) Cats end with EWU and UM, at best they split those. I agree, Griz could very well lose this weekend to ISU, but, from Stats class, regression to the mean always wins.

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:22 pm

My view on the Griz at this point is that this is an awful lot like the position they were in last year at this time, albeit with the question marks on the other side of the ball. All the MSU fans (and many UM fans) were predicting doom for the Griz during conference play because of their dead-last ranked pass defense...even though they got very lucky with their playoff bracket, they still ended up in the NC game! They usually find a way to win games, and that can't be ignored. If they finish out of the Top 3, I'll be very surprised.

Yung1Gun · Post by **Yung1Gun** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:28 pm

MSU01 wrote:My view on the Griz at this point is that this is an awful lot like the position they were in last year at this time, albeit with the question marks on the other side of the ball. All the MSU fans (and many UM fans) were predicting doom for the Griz during conference play because of their dead-last ranked pass defense...even though they got very lucky with their playoff bracket, they still ended up in the NC game! They usually find a way to win games, and that can't be ignored. If they finish out of the Top 3, I'll be very surprised.

Watch out, those words will get you on McCarthy's list, and you'll be brandished a Griz fan. I'm starting to realize why I stayed away from this message board

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:34 pm

Yung1Gun wrote:Watch out, those words will get you on McCarthy's list, and you'll be brandished a Griz fan. I'm starting to realize why I stayed away from this message board

I had better go out clothes shopping tomorrow for some maroon and silver gear. I already made the horrible mistake of saying I thought the refs called a fairly consistent game yesterday.

Upon further review, the Griz will lose all their remaining games by a combined margin of 678-3...maybe now I can come back to the good side.

whizonthegriz · Post by **whizonthegriz** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:46 pm

My picks...

1.MSU
2.EWU
3.ISU
4.PSU
5.UM
6.Weber
7.Sac St.
8.NAU

The Cats will lose one they shouldn't, but will still beat Eastern Washington and the Griz. I am counting on a home playoff game or two. With any luck...the Griz will finish 3rd and probably host two playoff games.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:46 pm

[quote="El_Gato"][quote="iaafan"]All I can say about it is, until somebody actually beats the Griz, they still get my vote for No. 1. They my have won ugly and they may not look very good, but no one else has looked so great. One thing that has changed, however, is the fact that they are no longer the shoo-in winners of the Big Sky anymore. I don't think this is just a phase, but a permanent thing. No more winning the league by default. Matt Daugherty doesn't realize this yet...[/quote]

Isn't that a GIANT contradiction? If Daugherty doesn't realize this yet, how come you're doing the EXACT SAME THING by picking them "just because they're the Griz".

Did you bother to look at the stats? Did you see that Weber gained nearly 500 yards yesterday? Or that a running team's QB threw for 373 yards vs the so-called best Big Sky defense? The D WAS their strength, and Weber just showed MSU, PSU, EWU, Cal Poly, and ISU that their pass D is every bit as soft as it was a year ago (dead-last in I-AA).

Oh, and let's not forget that they'll be breaking in a new QB against a defense that sacked Meyer 7 times and forced 4 EWU turnovers a week ago...

Unless ISU self-destructs with 4 or more turnovers, they'll DOMINATE the Griz. The Griz are about to FINALLY hit the meat of their schedule and when they leave October 4-4, we'll see that Hauck has done more damage than anyone could have imagined (and we'll be able to hear wolfman laughing all the way in Bozeman...).[/quote]

El Gato: Don't stand too close because I'm going to Yaaawwwwn. When y'all gonna learn to read Bubba? I'm saying Daugherty doesn't realize the Griz winning the league every year by default is a given. If I was with Daugherty on this, I wouldn't even bother with all that explaining. Daugherty, IMO, just says the Griz Rule, so don't bother to question his reasoning. I say the Griz no longer rule and their Waterloo is coming, but until Napolean's on the Island, I'm not making a peep. I guess this makes me a coward. But I'm pretty damn superstitious too....if ya know what I mean.

I did see that WSU gained a isht pot of yards yesterday, but I'm not a big stat guy. UM went to the title game last year with a worse D than they have this year. They twist like a pretzel, but somehow don't break...at least not yet. Things just have a way of working out for UM, if they were able to make it the title game last year with that team, then they can with the BSC with this one. It's gonna happen (UM w/no share of reg. season title) pretty soon.

I agree with most of your post even though I'm not sure you want me too.

iaafan · Post by **iaafan** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 9:56 pm

[quote="Yung1Gun"]I believe I already said it, the top three in the Big Sky can be shaken out any way, the top three being MSU, EWU and UM. The biggest reason I gave it to UM is because 1) They get EWU at home, granted EWU plays the Griz strong at home, I still think Washington Griz stadium is worth a W there 2) The Griz have Lex Hilliard, as the season wears on, and the weather gets worse, you will see RUNNING GAMES not passing games dominate, this doesn't bode well for a late November game 3) Cats end with EWU and UM, at best they split those. I agree, Griz could very well lose this weekend to ISU, but, from Stats class, regression to the mean always wins.[/quote]

I agree with the first. But the 'best' MSU can do is split with EWU and UM. Huh? MSU's quite capable of winning both. (I'd say 50/50 vs. EW and 75/25 vs UM; and if MSU does beat EW it's about 90/10 they beat UM) Lex is more likely to be worn out and beat up by November, than he is dominating anyone, even if JW is healthy. Not saying he come through as you say, but he's gonna be on the field all game for the rest of the year, their bye week is gone, Cal Poly's defense is coming up...he may want to sit that one out. He's really going to get worked this week and next. Unless Bergquist is the next Lulay. Who knows Lulay had his comingout party in Pocatello, so maybe something's in the water for frosh QBs.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 10:52 pm

Yung1Gun wrote:The Griz have Lex Hilliard, as the season wears on, and the weather gets worse, you will see RUNNING GAMES not passing games dominate, this doesn't bode well for a late November game.

The cold weather doesn't bother Lulay any...

2004 VS. EWU - 432 yds passing
2004 @ UM - 386 yds passing

Granted, that was due to the fact we had no rushing attack, especially in the Griz game. Dom had 143 yds rushing and TL had 110 in the EWU game, but still not enough to run out the clock at the end...

WOW look at the stats from that game.

Topic EWU MSU

1st Downs 29 35
3rd down efficiency 10-17 5-14
4th down efficiency 0-1 1-3
Total Yards 536 683
Passing 372 432
Comp-Att 25-41 33-55
Yards per pass 8.5 7.7
Rushing 164 251
Rushing Attempts 37 44
Yards per rush 4.4 5.7
Penalties 4-45 10-94
Turnovers 1 1
Fumbles lost 1 0
Interceptions thrown 0 1
Possession 28:22 30:21

The one thing that stands out is our lack of 3rd down completions... 5-14. THAT was the reason we lost that game...(Plus those damnable penalties)

Wolfman · Post by **Wolfman** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 10:58 pm

You guys can conjecture all you want about "the Griz finding a way to win". They had Ochs, Green, Proctor, Walden, Heidleberger, and Segars last year too, who all spent time in NFL/CFL camps. Their offense this season is a mere shell of what it was. No receivers, shaky line play, no big-play threats like JH and LS, and a freshman QB without a clue.

Find a way to win? Uh, I don't think so. Go ahead and take the popular way out by this "until someone beats them" point of view. I'm a Griz fan, and there is no way they're gonna win against the better Big Sky teams, especially on the road. I don't buy this stuff about Wber being a good team. Hell, they got 146 yards and ZERO points against the same NDSU team who the Cats just beat, for Christ's sake! What, they became an offensive juggernaut over the past couple of weeks?

Even with the great players mentioned above, Hauck has a .500 road winning percentage. What will his road winning percentage be this year?

The Griz can kiss the playoffs goodbye this season. Hopefully, we can kiss Big Timber West goodbye shorty afterward!

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Sun Oct 02, 2005 11:12 pm

Weber:

vs Western St - 590 yards of offense
vs Fresno St - 338 yards
vs NAU - 436

Why does everyone think Webers offense is that bad? One bad game against a good NDSU team in Fargo?

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 7:08 am

Why?

Well, Western State is DII, and NAU SHOULD be DII having just lost convincingly to Weber & Sac St.

So, the only REAL teams Weber had played were Fresno & NDSU, where they averaged 272 yards; the Griz just gave up 485 to them.

My point? I'm pretty sure MOST griz fans would've told you their GREAT D would not allow Weber more yards than either Fresno or NDSU, ESPECIALLY in WaGriz. I've been saying it for a long time about the Griz D: You don't put the same guys on the field and become great after finishing dead-last vs the pass the year before. Have they improved? Maybe, but Pizzaro just proved that they still are weak vs the pass; he beat his previous best performance by 131 yards!

Wolfman is right with his assessment of the Griz; the "genius" has built a terrible offense & now it appears their D is suspect as well; honestly ask yourself if you'd pick the Griz vs the following opponents still on their schedule: ISU, Cal Poly, EWU, PSU, MSU. Based on how we've all played to date, I'd say they're lucky to win 2 of those; and honestly, even in WaGriz, I'd say they're an underdog to everyone there except PSU and underdogs GENERALLY lose.

wbtfg · Post by **wbtfg** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:01 am

The biggest key is that we have to win on the road. So far we are 0-2 away from Bozeman. Granted we played two good teams (OSU, Cal Poly), but we didn't show up against CPSLO and if we continue to play like that on the road most teams in the conference will beat us....including Weber.

This is a senior laden offense, and our defense is maturing every game. I hope that Kramer doesn't go with the Mick Durham method of "win all your home games, and then HOPEFULLY win on the road." We have a special team, and I really think that if we can go into the bye week undefeated in conference (which is a tall order playing @weber and @psu), we will get some big guns back on defense, and if we stay healthy

I think we have a good shot at running the table.

CatFamily · Post by **CatFamily** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:24 am

Here's my late two bits worth for the BSC standings:

1. EWU (get the tie breaker with close win vs Cats at home)
2. MSU (Will continue to get better OFF but need to avoid Injury bug Def)
3. ISU (surprise team but need improvement on pass game)
4. UM (just don't think Griz have O to win on road)
5. PSU (sleeper... could go higher but O suspect w/o pass game)
6. Weber (better than thought... same ole BSC full of surprises)
7. NAU (stuggling again... but can be difficult with QB)
8. SAC (what else can we say... may be tough at home at times...NAU?)

CagedBengal · Post by **CagedBengal** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:51 am

CatFamily wrote:Here's my late two bits worth for the BSC standings:

1. EWU (get the tie breaker with close win vs Cats at home)
2. MSU (Will continue to get better OFF but need to avoid Injury bug Def)
3. ISU (surprise team but need improvement on pass game)
4. UM (just don't think Griz have O to win on road)
5. PSU (sleeper... could go higher but O suspect w/o pass game)
6. Weber (better than thought... same ole BSC full of surprises)
7. NAU (stuggling again... but can be difficult with QB)
8. SAC (what else can we say... may be tough at home at times...NAU?)

I think this looks pretty close to how things will finish. The only thing I would change is the top three. 1st - MSU, 2nd - ISU, 3rd - EWU/UM. All teams control their own destiny now. If MSU wins out (with some very tough games left), they win the Sky. If ISU wins out ( UM at ISU this weekend, a very winable game), no matter what EWU does, ISU takes the tie breaker and 2nd. EWU and UM will be fighting for the 3rd spot.

Of course, you have to remember this is the Big Sky and ANYTHING can happen on any Saturday. ISU would appear to have the easiest schedule left out of the top 4 teams. UM - home, Sac -away, Weber - away, PSU - Home, NAU - away, Cal Poly - away. But, ISU has never won at Sac, and has not won at Weber or NAU in over 20 years. After Montana, the toughest game I see is at home against PSU. But, it has been the dormat's that have snuck up and got ISU the past few years in games that ISU should have easily won.

No team is complete in the Sky this year and I think the title is still up for grabs. After Saturday's game, I think MSU is in the driver's seat for the Big Sky. You guys have by far the best QB in the conference. He was the difference maker in the game Saturday. He makes big plays, not only on offense, but with his kicks as well. You can credit 14 points directly to him. The Int. that resulted in a TD was due to the punt that pinned us deep in Bobcat territory, and the 20 run for a TD was all Lulay on that.

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 8:59 am

grizzh8r wrote:
Yung1Gun wrote:The Griz have Lex Hilliard, as the season wears on, and the weather gets worse, you will see RUNNING GAMES not passing games dominate, this doesn't bode well for a late November game.
The cold weather doesn't bother Lulay any...

2004 VS. EWU - 432 yds passing
2004 @ UM - 386 yds passing

Granted, that was due to the fact we had no rushing attack, especially in the Griz game. Dom had 143 yds rushing and TL had 110 in the EWU game, but still not enough to run out the clock at the end...

WOW look at the stats from that game.

Topic EWU MSU

1st Downs 29 35
3rd down efficiency 10-17 5-14
4th down efficiency 0-1 1-3
Total Yards 536 683
Passing 372 432
Comp-Att 25-41 33-55
Yards per pass 8.5 7.7
Rushing 164 251
Rushing Attempts 37 44
Yards per rush 4.4 5.7
Penalties 4-45 10-94
Turnovers 1 1
Fumbles lost 1 0
Interceptions thrown 0 1
Possession 28:22 30:21

The one thing that stands out is our lack of 3rd down completions... 5-14. THAT was the reason we lost that game...(Plus those damnable penalties)

Lulay has played in many cold weather/windy games. He has a GUN for an arm and this will not affect him. Mark my word. All it's going to do it give the offensive WR more of an advantage if anything as he knows when he is going to cut and the defenders doesn't etc.

ISU WIN = TRUMP CARD FOR THE CATS OVER EW.

Hopefully ISU can take down the Griz this weekend and that will give us a trump card over the Griz as well.

We definately need to take each game one game at a time though. Weber putting up 500 on that Griz D to me really says something. We need to get a pass rush this weekend.

El_Gato · Post by **El_Gato** » Mon Oct 03, 2005 9:09 am

I know this is getting WAY ahead of things, but imagine this situation:

ISU beat EWU, MSU beat ISU. IF EWU beat MSU, we could be looking at another 3 way tie for 1st place in the Sky.

Based on what I saw Saturday and given the fact that they've already beaten EWU, I won't be surprised to see ISU go 6-1.

I think the Cats are the only team left on the Eagles schedule who can hope to "out-shoot" them. If it were in Bozeman (and if I wasn't still having nightmares about last year's game), I might give MSU the nod, but in Cheney, right now I'd pick Eastern.

If the Cats lose either of the next 2 games (or God forbid both), then I think we will be VERY hard-pressed to win the conference and I'd have to give the Bengals the nod based on their win over EWU.

If, on the other hand, MSU goes to the off-week at 3-0 in the conference, I think we'll be the team to beat with Eastern being the biggest obstacle to an outright conference championship.