Top 2 path

[onceacat]

I see our path to the 2 seed as SDSU losing the marker and losing their last regular season game @ UND. Tarleton slipping up and dropping a game or two? to either West Georgia, @ ACU (best chance) or Austin Peay (2nd best chance). Cats will win the brawl decisively….that happens I see us seeded #2. Of course, this scenario has NDSU and us winning out.

99% chance the Cats jump Tarleton with a win against Davis and at Missoula. Its not even very close.

The Cats aren't jumping a undefeated Tarleton... It won't happen.

If they beat Davis and an undefeated UM?

Absolutely they will, and should.

Tarleton has a couple ranked games left on their schedule also. ACU is a top 15 team and the Peay at the end. Hardly a sure thing Cats jump them when the committee is already putting them there.

I think the committee would value a team beating #4 and #6 (in current STATs poll) enough to move that team up one spot over a team that beat #13 and #23.

Tarleton doesn't have a win better than at NAU and they are still seeded above the Cats. All of sudden that changes?

Yes, it all the sudden changes when we build a stronger resume than them by beating 2 top 10 teams. It's not that hard to understand.

Tarletons SOS will actually improve in the back half of the season. Cats SOS will regress. Tarleton is 38, Cats are 2 right now and they still put UTT above the Cats. Your right it isn't that hard to understand. For some reason Cat fans are deluded that no other conferences matter. UAC has some good teams and the ranking release yesterday proved the committee thinks so and proves your incorrect.

Right now the Cats SOS is as high as it is because we played Oregon.

At the end of the year, if the Cats have 2 losses, one to Oregon, and one in OT to a top 3 team, with victories over what will likely be a top 10 UC Davis, and a victory on the road over what should be a top 5 Montana team, that ABSOLUTELY is a better schedule than Tarleton. Currently MSU doesn't have a really great win. If they win out, they'll have multiple really great wins including one on the road. The resume matters, and if MSU wins out, they easily have a better resume than Tarleton.

And a top 20 win on the road against NAU. Who is 3-0 against the UAC.

Right now the Army win is doing a lot of heavy lifting based on Army being a Top 25 team last year. As the math on that changes, and Army continues to lose, that victory is going to look a lot less impressive. While the Cats OT loss to SDSU and the shellacking by Oregon is likely to look better.

[onceacat]

99% chance the Cats jump Tarleton with a win against Davis and at Missoula. Its not even very close.

The Cats aren't jumping a undefeated Tarleton... It won't happen.

If they beat Davis and an undefeated UM?

Absolutely they will, and should.

Tarleton has a couple ranked games left on their schedule also. ACU is a top 15 team and the Peay at the end. Hardly a sure thing Cats jump them when the committee is already putting them there.

I think the committee would value a team beating #4 and #6 (in current STATs poll) enough to move that team up one spot over a team that beat #13 and #23.

Tarleton doesn't have a win better than at NAU and they are still seeded above the Cats. All of sudden that changes?

Yes, it all the sudden changes when we build a stronger resume than them by beating 2 top 10 teams. It's not that hard to understand.

Tarletons SOS will actually improve in the back half of the season. Cats SOS will regress. Tarleton is 38, Cats are 2 right now and they still put UTT above the Cats. Your right it isn't that hard to understand. For some reason Cat fans are deluded that no other conferences matter. UAC has some good teams and the ranking release yesterday proved the committee thinks so and proves your incorrect.

Right now the Cats SOS is as high as it is because we played Oregon.

At the end of the year, if the Cats have 2 losses, one to Oregon, and one in OT to a top 3 team, with victories over what will likely be a top 10 UC Davis, and a victory on the road over what should be a top 5 Montana team, that ABSOLUTELY is a better schedule than Tarleton. Currently MSU doesn't have a really great win. If they win out, they'll have multiple really great wins including one on the road. The resume matters, and if MSU wins out, they easily have a better resume than Tarleton.

No they won't. they can get 12 D1 wins, Cats can only get 10, number of ranked wins won't be a huge disparity. The main difference is SOS and the committee put them above the Cats yesterday and the SOS gets better for UTT.
Army currently on SP+ would be the 4th ranked FCS team. That win for Tarleton @ Army is probably the second best win currently in all of FCS. Its funny because if you look at the resumes, the FBS win, a few ranked wins, being undefeated, a bunch of blowouts versus some bad to mediocre teams, Tarleton vs MSU of 2024 are almost lock step... Identical... Pretty sure no one here was thinking an undefeated MSU was gonna get leapt by a different team with more losses but a tougher SOS last year.
You guys are thinking like MSU (or griz) fans, not like an impartial committee, certain that your wins are better. Posting like people who haven't watched a lick of Tarleton football. They are pretty banged up right now. They are without their QB Gabalis for who knows how long and still they have been winning albeit not as convincing as they were in Sept. Hopefully they drop one but the committee has already put them in the 3 spot. I'm fairly certain its theirs or they move up a spot unless they screw it up.

There is a less than 0.0% chance that Tarleton jumps a one loss DSU.

What are you even smoking?

The problem with Tarleton is that their conference is so weak on the bottom half.

Heck, even the top half is pretty meh...The '24 Cats had multiple wins against the Top 10 (I don't recall off the top of my head). Tarletons best win may or may not be in the Top 20 when the season is over.

It's certainly possible that the committee puts them in over a Cats team with 2 Top 10 wins...coming off a national championship game...but its not super likely. And theres no way the Texans jump a 1 loss DSU.

[BelligerentBobcat]

Per Massey, the Cats SOS goes from 2 right now all the way back to 3 by the end of the season.

Tarleton’s goes from 37 up to 29.

And??????? Thanks for reiterating what I said is correct?

My point is that it’s not by much. The Cats going from 2 to 3 in SOS, while is technically regressing I suppose, is inconsequential. It’s one of the hardest schedules out there.

Tarleton does move up a bit, but again moving up 8 spots doesn’t move the needle a ton.

It seems like you were implying that they’d be fairly close by the end of the season. One is still head and shoulders above the other in difficulty.

You mean the way it is currently and they still put UTT above the Cats?

The way it is currently doesn’t have MSU with multiple top 10 wins.

And without Tarleton's 2 ranked wins they can still get.

What we don't know is how big the gap is. My hunch is 3,4, 5 are very close. Cats can put 2 top 10 wins on resume between now and end of season. Tarleton can't. You think there is no chance that sways a few members. Prior years team that replaces as many stars as Cats did, lose 2 OT to top 3 seed, a powerhouse FBS then roll rest of season will get some benefit that Tarleton won't.

Ultimately this why its kinda impossible to say. At the end of it we are guessing what the opinions of some suits(or at least stylish qtr zips) are at a hotel ballroom. Will they value being undefeated? Will they value top 25 wins? Top 10? SOS? They have given us some of their guidelines but ultimately they all vote and the vote decides. They have Lehigh, Monmouth and Tennessee tech in their top 10 with absolutely terrible SOS's tells me this years committee values winning games (being undefeated) more than the quality of those wins. That's part of why I think UTT is in the top and won't get jumped.

And yet us being ahead of UM refutes your supposition.

No. UM with only 5 D1 wins, SOS in the 40's while barely winning against 2-5 teams yet still being top 5 proves my supposition.

Lol ok. We’ll just have to agree to disagree here.

[Prodigal Cat]

The Cats aren't jumping a undefeated Tarleton... It won't happen.

If they beat Davis and an undefeated UM?

Absolutely they will, and should.

Tarleton has a couple ranked games left on their schedule also. ACU is a top 15 team and the Peay at the end. Hardly a sure thing Cats jump them when the committee is already putting them there.

I think the committee would value a team beating #4 and #6 (in current STATs poll) enough to move that team up one spot over a team that beat #13 and #23.

Tarleton doesn't have a win better than at NAU and they are still seeded above the Cats. All of sudden that changes?

Yes, it all the sudden changes when we build a stronger resume than them by beating 2 top 10 teams. It's not that hard to understand.

Tarletons SOS will actually improve in the back half of the season. Cats SOS will regress. Tarleton is 38, Cats are 2 right now and they still put UTT above the Cats. Your right it isn't that hard to understand. For some reason Cat fans are deluded that no other conferences matter. UAC has some good teams and the ranking release yesterday proved the committee thinks so and proves your incorrect.

Right now the Cats SOS is as high as it is because we played Oregon.

At the end of the year, if the Cats have 2 losses, one to Oregon, and one in OT to a top 3 team, with victories over what will likely be a top 10 UC Davis, and a victory on the road over what should be a top 5 Montana team, that ABSOLUTELY is a better schedule than Tarleton. Currently MSU doesn't have a really great win. If they win out, they'll have multiple really great wins including one on the road. The resume matters, and if MSU wins out, they easily have a better resume than Tarleton.

No they won't. they can get 12 D1 wins, Cats can only get 10, number of ranked wins won't be a huge disparity. The main difference is SOS and the committee put them above the Cats yesterday and the SOS gets better for UTT.
Army currently on SP+ would be the 4th ranked FCS team. That win for Tarleton @ Army is probably the second best win currently in all of FCS. Its funny because if you look at the resumes, the FBS win, a few ranked wins, being undefeated, a bunch of blowouts versus some bad to mediocre teams, Tarleton vs MSU of 2024 are almost lock step... Identical... Pretty sure no one here was thinking an undefeated MSU was gonna get leapt by a different team with more losses but a tougher SOS last year.
You guys are thinking like MSU (or griz) fans, not like an impartial committee, certain that your wins are better. Posting like people who haven't watched a lick of Tarleton football. They are pretty banged up right now. They are without their QB Gabalis for who knows how long and still they have been winning albeit not as convincing as they were in Sept. Hopefully they drop one but the committee has already put them in the 3 spot. I'm fairly certain its theirs or they move up a spot unless they screw it up.

There is a less than 0.0% chance that Tarleton jumps a one loss DSU.

What are you even smoking?

The problem with Tarleton is that their conference is so weak on the bottom half.

Heck, even the top half is pretty meh...The '24 Cats had multiple wins against the Top 10 (I don't recall off the top of my head). Tarletons best win may or may not be in the Top 20 when the season is over.

It's certainly possible that the committee puts them in over a Cats team with 2 Top 10 wins...coming off a national championship game...but its not super likely. And theres no way the Texans jump a 1 loss DSU.

Where oh where did I say they would jump a one loss DSU????? They could move to the 2 and would be current leader to get there but your putting words out there I never said. Now to elaborate on what I ACTUALLY posted, if a DSU drops a couple games and is no longer the 2 right now Tarleton is the front runner to move into that spot. BUT NO WHERE DID I SAY THEY JUMP A ONE LOSS DSU. I think your the one smoking?

[onceacat]

If they beat Davis and an undefeated UM?

Absolutely they will, and should.

Tarleton has a couple ranked games left on their schedule also. ACU is a top 15 team and the Peay at the end. Hardly a sure thing Cats jump them when the committee is already putting them there.

I think the committee would value a team beating #4 and #6 (in current STATs poll) enough to move that team up one spot over a team that beat #13 and #23.

Tarleton doesn't have a win better than at NAU and they are still seeded above the Cats. All of sudden that changes?

Yes, it all the sudden changes when we build a stronger resume than them by beating 2 top 10 teams. It's not that hard to understand.

Tarletons SOS will actually improve in the back half of the season. Cats SOS will regress. Tarleton is 38, Cats are 2 right now and they still put UTT above the Cats. Your right it isn't that hard to understand. For some reason Cat fans are deluded that no other conferences matter. UAC has some good teams and the ranking release yesterday proved the committee thinks so and proves your incorrect.

Right now the Cats SOS is as high as it is because we played Oregon.

At the end of the year, if the Cats have 2 losses, one to Oregon, and one in OT to a top 3 team, with victories over what will likely be a top 10 UC Davis, and a victory on the road over what should be a top 5 Montana team, that ABSOLUTELY is a better schedule than Tarleton. Currently MSU doesn't have a really great win. If they win out, they'll have multiple really great wins including one on the road. The resume matters, and if MSU wins out, they easily have a better resume than Tarleton.

No they won't. they can get 12 D1 wins, Cats can only get 10, number of ranked wins won't be a huge disparity. The main difference is SOS and the committee put them above the Cats yesterday and the SOS gets better for UTT.
Army currently on SP+ would be the 4th ranked FCS team. That win for Tarleton @ Army is probably the second best win currently in all of FCS. Its funny because if you look at the resumes, the FBS win, a few ranked wins, being undefeated, a bunch of blowouts versus some bad to mediocre teams, Tarleton vs MSU of 2024 are almost lock step... Identical... Pretty sure no one here was thinking an undefeated MSU was gonna get leapt by a different team with more losses but a tougher SOS last year.
You guys are thinking like MSU (or griz) fans, not like an impartial committee, certain that your wins are better. Posting like people who haven't watched a lick of Tarleton football. They are pretty banged up right now. They are without their QB Gabalis for who knows how long and still they have been winning albeit not as convincing as they were in Sept. Hopefully they drop one but the committee has already put them in the 3 spot. I'm fairly certain its theirs or they move up a spot unless they screw it up.

There is a less than 0.0% chance that Tarleton jumps a one loss DSU.

What are you even smoking?

The problem with Tarleton is that their conference is so weak on the bottom half.

Heck, even the top half is pretty meh...The '24 Cats had multiple wins against the Top 10 (I don't recall off the top of my head). Tarletons best win may or may not be in the Top 20 when the season is over.

It's certainly possible that the committee puts them in over a Cats team with 2 Top 10 wins...coming off a national championship game...but its not super likely. And theres no way the Texans jump a 1 loss DSU.

Where oh where did I say they would jump a one loss DSU????? They could move to the 2 and would be current leader to get there but your putting words out there I never said. Now to elaborate on what I ACTUALLY posted, if a DSU drops a couple games and is no longer the 2 right now Tarleton is the front runner to move into that spot. BUT NO WHERE DID I SAY THEY JUMP A ONE LOSS DSU. I think your the one smoking?

You said Tarlton was likely to move up without saying anything about a DSU losing.

If a DSU loses 2 games, several teams will be jumping them.

SMH

[RockyBearCat]

There is a very interesting part of this discussion that a few people are so soundly on either side. In the committee meeting on the night of Nov 22nd, morning of Nov 23rd, the exact same conversation will take place. Some will be soundly on each side and will try to convince everyone else they are correct. THEN, there will be a vote. Neither of you are right or wrong, you just don't know how many committee members agree with you.

[kwcat]

There are some scenarios where Tarelton sneaks quietly into #1

[tetoncat]

There are some scenarios where Tarelton sneaks quietly into #1

A lot of teams have to lose 1 or 2 games for that to happen.

[onceacat]

There are some scenarios where Tarelton sneaks quietly into #1

Both DSUs would need to end with 2 losses....AND MSU needs to not run up the scores on Davis & UM.

Its theoretically possible, but highly unlikely.

[MinnesotaBobcat]

I’d love to see the Cats get a top two seed, but they need a lot of help. On the flip side, it might be advantageous to be the 3 seed in the following scenario.

1. XDSU
2. Tarleton
3. Cats
4. XDSU
5. UM

This is probably more likely than a number 2 seed at this point…..and honestly a far easier path to Nashville.

[SparkCat]

I’d love to see the Cats get a top two seed, but they need a lot of help. On the flip side, it might be advantageous to be the 3 seed in the following scenario.

1. XDSU
2. Tarleton
3. Cats
4. XDSU
5. UM

This is probably more likely than a number 2 seed at this point…..and honestly a far easier path to Nashville.

Yea, I am in the same boat. This will basically be a 2 seed as I’d suspect that Tarleton would be eliminated prior to meeting the Cats

[coloradocat]

I’d love to see the Cats get a top two seed, but they need a lot of help. On the flip side, it might be advantageous to be the 3 seed in the following scenario.

1. XDSU
2. Tarleton
3. Cats
4. XDSU
5. UM

This is probably more likely than a number 2 seed at this point…..and honestly a far easier path to Nashville.

Yeah, the two ideal scenarios are either we get the 2 seed or we get matched up with Tarleton in either the quarters or semis. Any other scenario makes it very unlikely that we make it to Nashville.

[PortlandCat90]

I’d love to see the Cats get a top two seed, but they need a lot of help. On the flip side, it might be advantageous to be the 3 seed in the following scenario.

1. XDSU
2. Tarleton
3. Cats
4. XDSU
5. UM

This is probably more likely than a number 2 seed at this point…..and honestly a far easier path to Nashville.

Yeah, the two ideal scenarios are either we get the 2 seed or we get matched up with Tarleton in either the quarters or semis. Any other scenario makes it very unlikely that we make it to Nashville.

This is an awesome take on your team. Let's keep you away from the locker room - not that it would matter.

Oh, and drop the "we" from your post. Geezus.

[MTFootball]

There is a very interesting part of this discussion that a few people are so soundly on either side. In the committee meeting on the night of Nov 22nd, morning of Nov 23rd, the exact same conversation will take place. Some will be soundly on each side and will try to convince everyone else they are correct. THEN, there will be a vote. Neither of you are right or wrong, you just don't know how many committee members agree with you.

This is true. A major difficulty in predicting what the committee will do is that the committee isn’t consistent or rational in their decision making. Well, maybe they have reasoning, but their reasoning isn’t consistent from year to year. The committee has a little turnover each year, with a different chairman so you just don’t know what you’re going to get.

[catatac]

I’d love to see the Cats get a top two seed, but they need a lot of help. On the flip side, it might be advantageous to be the 3 seed in the following scenario.

1. XDSU
2. Tarleton
3. Cats
4. XDSU
5. UM

This is probably more likely than a number 2 seed at this point…..and honestly a far easier path to Nashville.

Yeah, the two ideal scenarios are either we get the 2 seed or we get matched up with Tarleton in either the quarters or semis. Any other scenario makes it very unlikely that we make it to Nashville.

This is an awesome take on your team. Let's keep you away from the locker room - not that it would matter.

Oh, and drop the "we" from your post. Geezus.

?? Is he wrong? I think that sums it up perfectly. It's not negative, it's just reality. less than 5% chance MSU, NDSU, or SDSU loses at home in a semi final game.

[technoCat]

Just tuned in to watch what the heck is going on with NDSU against InSU. The Sycamores came to play on defense.

[RobertCats]

Chase Mason went out early in SDSU game and deemed "very unlikely to return." Very interesting considering next week is NDSU.

EDIT: Announcers just mentioned he is still in full pads and has his helmet and are likely holding him out as a precaution.

[catatac]

Chase Mason went out early in SDSU game and deemed "very unlikely to return." Very interesting considering next week is NDSU.

EDIT: Announcers just mentioned he is still in full pads and has his helmet and are likely holding him out as a precaution.

NDSU had some injuries early in that game, one looked very serious... long delay, stretcher, etc.

[onceacat]

There is a very interesting part of this discussion that a few people are so soundly on either side. In the committee meeting on the night of Nov 22nd, morning of Nov 23rd, the exact same conversation will take place. Some will be soundly on each side and will try to convince everyone else they are correct. THEN, there will be a vote. Neither of you are right or wrong, you just don't know how many committee members agree with you.

This is true. A major difficulty in predicting what the committee will do is that the committee isn’t consistent or rational in their decision making. Well, maybe they have reasoning, but their reasoning isn’t consistent from year to year. The committee has a little turnover each year, with a different chairman so you just don’t know what you’re going to get.

This is an underrated point. Theres turnover...theres the human element...theres an issue of who makes the best argument at 'the table'.

Theres a whole lot that can go into breaking ties that may or may not be consistent year over year or even at different tiers of playoff teams.

[CodyCat]

IF Tarleton wins out, one of the DSU’s with one loss, and MSU loses to the gris. Then what’s it look like?