2025 Path to the Playoffs Week 13 - BRACKETOLOGY PART 2 -TOP 8 SEEDS; 2nd 8 SEEDS; CATS SEEDING – WIN OR LOSE

[onceacat]

my gut check says the loser of the brawl gets 4. to soon for a rematch and the committee will want that rematch in nashville

Most FCS experts point out the committee members make their choices for the top 8 individually in a separate vote and when brought back together as a group, the seeds are simply mathematically calculated and which ever team has the lowest score gets seed #1, second lowest #2 and so on. There is no discussion or moving around the seeds to get a different or better matchup once they are voted in private. There are many instances where NDSU and SDSU were placed on the same side of the bracket or MSU and Griz were placed in the same manner. I believe the committee does their absolute best to place the teams in rank order without regard to matchups or expectations. A great example was last year where top 8 all won their second round games and then the top 4 and then the top 2. Sure, the committee members are part of a greater group trying to place the best teams in the playoffs and rank the teams correctly. But to assume the members manipulate or conjure up "seeds" simply to result in more favorable matchups (for fans or TV or for certain conferences), casts motives on individual members that frankly do not exist. Listen to any of the many interviews members give on various podcasts during this season and past season and you will hear how seriously they take their role and how much time they spend to get it right. And of course, there is no absolute right because the rankings are only truly reflected on the field. While individual biases may surface because it is human beings and not a computer model lacking emotion; thought or conscience making the picks, these individuals want only the best for the FCS and the process. I may disagree with some of their decisions or placements; I may not like where my favorite team ended up; but the process relies on the integrity of slew of individuals including all athletic directors; regional advisory councils; NCAA staff; committee members and the creators of the power polls/ratings and resumes used in helping to place teams. I think each year the committee does a fantastic job in getting the best teams in the FCS on the playoff field (as possible given auto bids) and places them in seeds that the last 20 years of playoff games demonstrates the overall accuracy of those seed decision..... But it goes without saying, I still want the highest possible seed and best possible matchups for The Cats!

All that can be true, but it's pretty basic human psychology for people to use motivated reasoning to get to wherever they want to in the end. If I were a voter this year, I could easily talk myself into putting either Lehigh or Tarleton into the 3 spot to keep MSU/UM on opposite sides. (And I'd probably not have enough self awareness about it to tell people afterwards).

I don't think any of them are doing so consciously, but when you have 3 teams with nearly identical resumes (UTT if they win, Lehigh, and the Pandas) then its easy to have your mind come up with tiebreakers like "Gris at home sell a lot of tickets" or "I'd like to avoid rematches when possible" or "It would be nice to see Top 4 seeds from 4 different conferences"...They aren't going to move an undeserving team into an undeserving spot. But they very well might be influenced by a lot of other factors to break ties.

[onceacat]

Well, not much left to answer now except for what the committee does with Lehigh and UM at #3 and #4. Looking at the potential seedings I tend to be more concerned about the #15 seed MSU will play in the 2nd round more than the #7 or #10 seed they'd be lined up to play in the quarterfinals.

Don't sleep on Tarleton. If they beat Austin Peay, they will have a better record on paper than the Pandas.

[BobcatDel]

my gut check says the loser of the brawl gets 4. to soon for a rematch and the committee will want that rematch in nashville

Most FCS experts point out the committee members make their choices for the top 8 individually in a separate vote and when brought back together as a group, the seeds are simply mathematically calculated and which ever team has the lowest score gets seed #1, second lowest #2 and so on. There is no discussion or moving around the seeds to get a different or better matchup once they are voted in private. There are many instances where NDSU and SDSU were placed on the same side of the bracket or MSU and Griz were placed in the same manner. I believe the committee does their absolute best to place the teams in rank order without regard to matchups or expectations. A great example was last year where top 8 all won their second round games and then the top 4 and then the top 2. Sure, the committee members are part of a greater group trying to place the best teams in the playoffs and rank the teams correctly. But to assume the members manipulate or conjure up "seeds" simply to result in more favorable matchups (for fans or TV or for certain conferences), casts motives on individual members that frankly do not exist. Listen to any of the many interviews members give on various podcasts during this season and past season and you will hear how seriously they take their role and how much time they spend to get it right. And of course, there is no absolute right because the rankings are only truly reflected on the field. While individual biases may surface because it is human beings and not a computer model lacking emotion; thought or conscience making the picks, these individuals want only the best for the FCS and the process. I may disagree with some of their decisions or placements; I may not like where my favorite team ended up; but the process relies on the integrity of slew of individuals including all athletic directors; regional advisory councils; NCAA staff; committee members and the creators of the power polls/ratings and resumes used in helping to place teams. I think each year the committee does a fantastic job in getting the best teams in the FCS on the playoff field (as possible given auto bids) and places them in seeds that the last 20 years of playoff games demonstrates the overall accuracy of those seed decision..... But it goes without saying, I still want the highest possible seed and best possible matchups for The Cats!

All that can be true, but it's pretty basic human psychology for people to use motivated reasoning to get to wherever they want to in the end. If I were a voter this year, I could easily talk myself into putting either Lehigh or Tarleton into the 3 spot to keep MSU/UM on opposite sides. (And I'd probably not have enough self awareness about it to tell people afterwards).

I don't think any of them are doing so consciously, but when you have 3 teams with nearly identical resumes (UTT if they win, Lehigh, and the Pandas) then its easy to have your mind come up with tiebreakers like "Gris at home sell a lot of tickets" or "I'd like to avoid rematches when possible" or "It would be nice to see Top 4 seeds from 4 different conferences"...They aren't going to move an undeserving team into an undeserving spot. But they very well might be influenced by a lot of other factors to break ties.

Human bias sure could be tie breakers as you note. Having an East Coast team like Lehigh ranked highly might be an example and important to East Coast votes. I really don’t care if the gris drop to wherever. And heaven forbid the Cats have never been ranked wrongly…or have they?!!!

[tetoncat]

NAU and Sac losing the Big Sky is 3 bid league. UND losing also hurts Griz. It may drop them to 4,5,6. They were 3rd and have a loss so I can see them dropping.

[MSU01]

Sign me up for this bracket!

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology

[BOBCATBORN]

Sign me up for this bracket!

https://www.collegesportsmadness.com/fc ... acketology

I’d rather Davis be 11 and Monmouth be 10. SDSU with mason back could give the griz trouble. They also just looked better today in general.

[ZebraCat]

College sports madness is garbage. Monmouth lost today. They won't be a seed. Lamar and USD played earlier in the year. They can't play in the 1st round. Harvard isn't traveling to the west coast.

[MSU01]

Sam Herder has put up his final projections, minus the first round matchups. Cats potential path to Nashville here is UC Davis, Mercer/Villanova, and Griz.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

[tetoncat]

Sam Herder has put up his final projections, minus the first round matchups. Cats potential path to Nashville here is UC Davis, Mercer/Villanova, and Griz.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

Booooooo.
Just takes away some meaning of regular season other than earning home field. I would hate to get 3 home games and 2 be conference opponents you've already beat.

[Utcatsfan]

Sam Herder has put up his final projections, minus the first round matchups. Cats potential path to Nashville here is UC Davis, Mercer/Villanova, and Griz.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

Booooooo.
Just takes away some meaning of regular season other than earning home field. I would hate to get 3 home games and 2 be conference opponents you've already beat.

Wondering how much the voided Davis/Mercer game changed things, it is what it is and it's due to how each team finished the season.

[BOBCATBORN]

Sam Herder has put up his final projections, minus the first round matchups. Cats potential path to Nashville here is UC Davis, Mercer/Villanova, and Griz.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

Booooooo.
Just takes away some meaning of regular season other than earning home field. I would hate to get 3 home games and 2 be conference opponents you've already beat.

Wondering how much the voided Davis/Mercer game changed things, it is what it is and it's due to how each team finished the season.

I don’t think we will see Davis at #15. Seems like they will get a better seed than that.

[blueandgoldblitz]

Would you rather play the Gris in Bozeman in the semis or in Nashville for all the marbles? I see both sides. We have a better chance to beat them at home, but if we're playing them in Nashville, then we avoided NDSU somehow

[MSU01]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

[Augustus]

There's not a chance they can beat NDSU in Fargo. We won't see them in Nashville...if we make it. And, I doubt we'll be on the same side of the bracket, so we probably won't see them again.

[Montanabob]

Sam Herder has put up his final projections, minus the first round matchups. Cats potential path to Nashville here is UC Davis, Mercer/Villanova, and Griz.

https://herosports.com/fcs-football-202 ... inal-bzbz/

Booooooo.
Just takes away some meaning of regular season other than earning home field. I would hate to get 3 home games and 2 be conference opponents you've already beat.

Wondering how much the voided Davis/Mercer game changed things, it is what it is and it's due to how each team finished the season.

I don’t think we will see Davis at #15. Seems like they will get a better seed than that.

swap uc davis and youngstown

[ZebraCat]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

Pretty solid. I'd argue Nova could the the 8. Other than that I think you have it spot on.

[GoldstoneCat]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

Pretty solid. I'd argue Nova could the the 8. Other than that I think you have it spot on.

The more I think about this, the more I think you're right, Montana won't be the 3. Felt that way because they were ranked 2 and us 3, but that's not how the committee has seen it all season. It's fairly apparent that the committee hates that D2 game on the schedule. It would also be pretty surprising for them to put Lehigh right behind montana at 4, see Lehigh take care of their schedule and montana not, and not flip them. Possible they even end up 5 behind tarleton and Lehigh; that's what Craig Haley has projected. Will be interesting.

[MSU01]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

Pretty solid. I'd argue Nova could the the 8. Other than that I think you have it spot on.

The more I think about this, the more I think you're right, Montana won't be the 3. Felt that way because they were ranked 2 and us 3, but that's not how the committee has seen it all season. It's fairly apparent that the committee hates that D2 game on the schedule. It would also be pretty surprising for them to put Lehigh right behind montana at 4, see Lehigh take care of their schedule and montana not, and not flip them. Possible they even end up 5 behind tarleton and Lehigh; that's what Craig Haley has projected. Will be interesting.

I went back and forth on Lehigh vs UM for the 3 and 4 seeds, but ultimately I felt like Lehigh's 12 D-1 wins and one win over a playoff team (Yale) should win out over UM's 10 D-1 wins and zero wins over playoff teams unless UND lucks into the last at-large spot at 7-5.

[GoldstoneCat]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

Pretty solid. I'd argue Nova could the the 8. Other than that I think you have it spot on.

The more I think about this, the more I think you're right, Montana won't be the 3. Felt that way because they were ranked 2 and us 3, but that's not how the committee has seen it all season. It's fairly apparent that the committee hates that D2 game on the schedule. It would also be pretty surprising for them to put Lehigh right behind montana at 4, see Lehigh take care of their schedule and montana not, and not flip them. Possible they even end up 5 behind tarleton and Lehigh; that's what Craig Haley has projected. Will be interesting.

I went back and forth on Lehigh vs UM for the 3 and 4 seeds, but ultimately I felt like Lehigh's 12 D-1 wins and one win over a playoff team (Yale) should win out over UM's 10 D-1 wins and zero wins over playoff teams unless UND lucks into the last at-large spot at 7-5.

I think you're going to be proven right, and I'm not so certain tarleton doesn't pass them 11 D1 wins including an FBS. If UND gets in they have Austin Peay's qb to thank, he airmailed a wide open 2pt try in overtime that would have beaten tarleton and put Peay in the field. The griz schedule will be what does drop them a slot or 2 if anything does. It would be a clear signal from the committee to the fcs to quit with the D2 games.

[CalgaryCat]

My bracket:

#1 NDSU vs #16 Harvard/CCSU
#8 Rhode Island vs #9 SFA/SE Louisiana
#4 Montana vs #13 UC Davis/Illinois State
#5 Tarleton vs #12 South Dakota/New Hampshire

#2 MSU vs #15 Youngstown State/Drake
#7 Mercer vs #10 Villanova/Yale
#3 Lehigh vs #14 South Dakota State/Monmouth
#6 Tennessee Tech vs #11 Abilene Christian/Lamar

Pretty solid. I'd argue Nova could the the 8. Other than that I think you have it spot on.

The more I think about this, the more I think you're right, Montana won't be the 3. Felt that way because they were ranked 2 and us 3, but that's not how the committee has seen it all season. It's fairly apparent that the committee hates that D2 game on the schedule. It would also be pretty surprising for them to put Lehigh right behind montana at 4, see Lehigh take care of their schedule and montana not, and not flip them. Possible they even end up 5 behind tarleton and Lehigh; that's what Craig Haley has projected. Will be interesting.

I went back and forth on Lehigh vs UM for the 3 and 4 seeds, but ultimately I felt like Lehigh's 12 D-1 wins and one win over a playoff team (Yale) should win out over UM's 10 D-1 wins and zero wins over playoff teams unless UND lucks into the last at-large spot at 7-5.

I think you're going to be proven right, and I'm not so certain tarleton doesn't pass them 11 D1 wins including an FBS. If UND gets in they have Austin Peay's qb to thank, he airmailed a wide open 2pt try in overtime that would have beaten tarleton and put Peay in the field. The griz schedule will be what does drop them a slot or 2 if anything does. It would be a clear signal from the committee to the fcs to quit with the D2 games.

It would be a great example for the committee to show the rest of the FCS that just because you can create a cakewalk of a schedule doesn’t mean it’s the best idea.