2025 Cat-Griz Prediction Thread

[SparkCat]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

I was also thinking this.

The Cats defense is good enough to hold the griz to 24 or fewer points. The Cats offense is plenty good enough to score more than that against a mediocre griz D. But it totally depends on Lamson. If he comes out pressing and the offense sputters early as we saw yesterday and at NAU etc, then he could melt down in the hostile environment and we lose. If he can find some composure early, complete some balls and find his groove, then the Cats should have their way.

I agree with this too. Lamson is extremely competitive but also emotional in that, gets chirppy, in your face, and particularly, the crowd could get to him.

Tommy was super competitive also but so much more stoic, more businesslike, and last year's team followed Tommy's lead of being humble, serious, stoic. Not that being that way is bad, since it led to an undefeated season until the NC.

That being said, this year's team is salty, has alot of swagger, and Lamson's leadership is likely a part of that. Perhaps it's going to take that type of attitude, personality, to win over there.

I mean this in a way that is respectful, despite my wording. This Cat Team is too dumb to let Missoula get to them. I guess what I mean is, they play the game to play the game, they are a much more ‘loose’ team than previous eras. They are a hard hitting, chirpy crew, I actually think they will thrive in that environment.

[TomCat88]

I predict that this game is going to be decided by the presence or absence of big plays.

The Griz live on explosives. By my count, they have 61 touchdown drives on the season. 34 of them have come on five plays or fewer. If you take out the short drives that have resulted from turnovers and big returns, they have 21 drives this season of 50+ yards on 5 or fewer plays. On those 21 drives, they average over 18 yards/play.

On the other hand, the Cats have allowed four touchdown drives on the season on five plays or less. Three of them were against SDSU, and they were short fields. They allowed a 21 yd drive on two plays after the blocked punt and two 25 yard TD drives in overtime. They have only allowed a drive or 50+ on five or fewer one time: Cooke's two play, 75 yard strike against ISU.

So you have one team that practically lives off of explosives and another team that almost never allows them. Something will have to give and I think whichever side has their way in this regard will win the game.

Another way to look at it:

The Griz, by my count, have produced 17 plays of 40+ yards on the season.

The Cats, outside of Oregon, have allowed 2 such plays, both to Jordan Cooke and ISU: a 40 yd pass and a 69 yd pass.

How many 40+ does MSU's offense have? How many 40+ has UM allowed?

I see MSU's 40+ allowed were to Idaho State. Who were the 17 40+ plays by UM against?

What is it if you include INT, fumble, punt and kickoff returns?

OK, I may be missing 1 or 2 here or there, but this is what I've got.

I'm throwing out Oregon and so consequently, I'm also throwing out Central Washington for UM (the stats in the play-by-play are wonky for that game anyways).

With that, the Cats have 13 offensive plays of 40+ yards:

-45 yd TD Pass Vs. USD
-45 yd run vs. MH
-42 yd TD Pass Vs. EW
-45 yd TD Pass Vs. EW
-52 yd Pass Vs. EW
-54 yd run vs. EW
-79 yd TD Pass @NAU
-49 yd Pass @NAU
-45 yd Pass @UNC
-67 yd TD Pass @UNC
-44 yd run @UNC
-52 yd TD Run Vs. WEB
-48 yd run Vs UCD

They've allowed 2 such plays:

-40 yd pass Vs. ISU
-69 yd TD pass Vs. ISU

Minus Central Washington, the Griz have 12 offensive plays of 40+ yards:

-56 yd pass vs. UND
-69 yd TD run vs. INDST
-62 yd TD pass vs. INDST
-54 yd pass @ISU
-43 yd TD pass vs. SH
-51 yd TD pass vs. SH
-49 yd TD pass vs. SH
-64 yd TD pass @SAC
-62 yd TD pass @WEB
-61 yd pass @WEB
-60 yd pass @WEB
-60 yd TD run @PSU

They have allowed 11 such plays on the season:

-40 yd run, UND
-51 yd TD pass, INDST
-55 yd TD run, INDST
-79 yd TD run, INDST
-62 yd pass, ID
-47 yd pass, ID
-45 yd pass, ID
-44 yd pass, CP
-63 yd TD pass, SAC
-48 yd pass, SAC
-75 yd TD run, PSU

I'm not going to put in the time to comb for the rest of it.

So the Cats have been similarly explosive on offense, but far better at preventing explosives. However, the other key difference I see is that the Cats are less reliant on explosive plays because their ground game is so much better.

Interesting. Thanks for digging that up and typing it all out in detail.

Against the 2 good teams (NAU, UCD) MSU played it had there are three big plays from scrimmage, but also an 83-yard INT return and a 90-yard PR.
Against the 2 good teams (UND, SAC) UM played it had there are two big plays from scrimmage, not sure if they had any INT or PRs, etc.

[allcat]

35-14 cats

Griz blitz a lot. I would look to have Taco as the blitz read. Can Lahe handle that much blitz.

[RBcat]

MSU teams that lost to UM the last two times were high powered offenses with suspect defense. This team has a high-powered defense, with an offense capable of putting up points. Defense travels, Cats 35-20.

[Catsrgrood]

MSU teams that lost to UM the last two times were high powered offenses with suspect defense. This team has a high-powered defense, with an offense capable of putting up points. Defense travels, Cats 35-20.

Agreed defense travels and I like our odds this year for that reason, but I’m not recalling our defense in 21’ as suspect.
Troy, Hardy, Okada, Benson, I’m drawing a blank on the safety that went to Falcons mini camp as well, etc, that defense was loaded.

This years defense is better as a whole, but it’s hard to call 21’s defense suspect.

[RBcat]

MSU teams that lost to UM the last two times were high powered offenses with suspect defense. This team has a high-powered defense, with an offense capable of putting up points. Defense travels, Cats 35-20.

Agreed defense travels and I like our odds this year for that reason, but I’m not recalling our defense in 21’ as suspect.
Troy, Hardy, Okada, Benson, I’m drawing a blank on the safety that went to Falcons mini camp as well, etc, that defense was loaded.

This years defense is better as a whole, but it’s hard to call 21’s defense suspect.

Calling the 2021 defense suspect was probably harsh, and I could be getting my years confused, but I felt like that year we had a studs on defense, but the unit as a whole allowed too many big plays, especially when teams threw the ball well.

[nanacat]

Lamson will be the deciding factor in which team wins the game.

I was also thinking this.

The Cats defense is good enough to hold the griz to 24 or fewer points. The Cats offense is plenty good enough to score more than that against a mediocre griz D. But it totally depends on Lamson. If he comes out pressing and the offense sputters early as we saw yesterday and at NAU etc, then he could melt down in the hostile environment and we lose. If he can find some composure early, complete some balls and find his groove, then the Cats should have their way.

I agree with this too. Lamson is extremely competitive but also emotional in that, gets chirppy, in your face, and particularly, the crowd could get to him.

Tommy was super competitive also but so much more stoic, more businesslike, and last year's team followed Tommy's lead of being humble, serious, stoic. Not that being that way is bad, since it led to an undefeated season until the NC.

That being said, this year's team is salty, has alot of swagger, and Lamson's leadership is likely a part of that. Perhaps it's going to take that type of attitude, personality, to win over there.

I mean this in a way that is respectful, despite my wording. This Cat Team is too dumb to let Missoula get to them. I guess what I mean is, they play the game to play the game, they are a much more ‘loose’ team than previous eras. They are a hard hitting, chirpy crew, I actually think they will thrive in that environment.

I get what you're saying, though I'm not sure "dumb" is the correct term, but "loose" certainly is, with the exception of Lamson at times. He has shown to be a little too amped up in a couple of games and made mistakes, low throws, etc. If he can stay loose and feed off of the other players, who, like I said are salty with swagger, I think the Cats will prevail.

[nanacat]

I do agree with BBT that those Texas boys, having the moxie they have, might actually thrive in Missoula, mostly because I don't think they'll be intimidated. This team plays a bit more "in your face" than some past teams. I think some of that must come from the coaches too, many of whom are young and aggressive. It'll be very interesting to see it all play out for sure!

[PapaG]

University of Montana 21
Bobcats 30

Play up to the level of the last 9 games and it’s a 2 seed.

There is a part of me that thinks if MSU loses without a blowout, it’s Gris #2 and still Cats at #3 with a potential puckered semi in Missoula early December for the Gris.

[cat_stache_fever]

Love our D and like our chances getting off the field on 3rd down. Hope pass rush carries over from Saturday night(don't think KAY is the same athlete as Pinnick). Love the O, but we seem to always start slow, so I envision this game being a slugfest in the first half with Cats pulling away in the 3rd quarter.

Cats 31
Gwis 16

[MrGoodKat]

Since I moved to Montana and watched my first Brawl in 2010, the rivalry game has been played 7 times in Missoula and 14 times overall. Montana State is 4-3 in that span in Missoula and 8-6 overall. Montana State has won 6 of the last 8, which includes one of their Missoula wins.

The two most recent games in Missoula have been blowouts in favor of UM (which has defined the rivalry generally for five years now).

The first of those two, 2021, I give Vigen a pass on. Matt McKay's play had gone in the tank from Weber on-- in the four games leading up to the Brawl he was completing less than 60% of his passes, was under 7 YPA, and was averaging less than 150 yards per game. He was playing hurt and scared due to his injury. So predictably, given how UM plays defense, he was completely overwhelmed and the offense imploded.

The second of the two more recent losses, 2023, I do not give Vigen a pass on. That was just part and parcel of the most disappointing season in recent memory for Cat fans.

Despite winning fairly often in Missoula in recent years, UM basically never gets blown out there. The margins in victories since 2010 have been 5 points, 9 points, 7 points, 4 points. You have to go back to 1980 to find the last time that MSU won by more than 10 points in Missoula.

In light of all of that, I'm going to predict that Vigen gets his win in Missoula, but in a close one.

31-24 Bobcats

[GoodTimesAllTheTime]

38-21 Cats win. I don’t think the Griz defense is good at all, the Cats played at Oregon, so they aren’t going to be overwhelmed by the environment, and I’m not sure there’s a single position group where you’d take the Griz players over the Cats. Even if the offense starts slow, the Griz have been almost completely unable to put teams away. Lamson has played at Clemson and at Notre Dame. A hostile environment isn’t going to be a surprise like it was to McKay in 2021.

[49thparallel]

I remain less than confident until I see that Vigen and Co. can go into Wagris and get a win. Cat-gris is Bizarro World where SOS, win/losses, polls, etc. seem to be less significant. I'm encouraged by the UC Davis win, but they'll need to show discipline and composure once they enter the Seattle suburb known as Missoula where the air is laden with patchouli oil, weed smoke, and self-entitled fans. And even though I appreciate his passion and competitiveness, Lamson will need to settle in early and resist the temptation to feel "amped up" to be able to execute properly. Feel that it's pointless to predict a score until I see that this team is capable of not letting the moment get too big for them. However, based on our level of talent and progression since the start of the season, this moment is rife with opportunity!

[HookedOnGriz]

I see a strange, slowed down defensive slug fest where both teams struggle to out up their usual points. I think the Griz home field is huge for them and they win 24-21

[luckyirishguy25]

I see a strange, slowed down defensive slug fest where both teams struggle to out up their usual points. I think the Griz home field is huge for them and they win 24-21

I feel this, but i think the team that establishes a run game wins, and i think we have the O line to get it done.

[RickRund]

The CATS dropped 38 on UCD and see no reason why they can’t put up 35 against the gris. I feel UCD has a saltier D than the gris. I think our passing game will open up the running game a bit. CATS OL will control the LOS.

Offensively the Gris are not the Aggies, IMHO. Pinnick was pretty darn good, slippery and threw a decent ball. Not sure if Ah Yat has the Pinnick moxie. Think our D will be able to partially control the gris offense so the Gris can put 20 on the board. Sure am praying for that outcome. DL should neutralize the Gris run game, LBs and DBs will take care of business.

Sure hope I know what I am talking about. I will be in my recliner with a few snacks and a iced glass of Kirkland Vintage Ale. GOOOOOO BOBCATS

[carvs12]

YOUR MONTANA STATE UNIVERSITY FIGHTING BOBCATS 35
teddy bears 17

[Helcat72]

Da Cats 34
Da Bears 22

[GoldstoneCat]

All pressure is on them we need to just go play ball and kick their donkeys. 34 to 21 CATS!

Underrated, but strong point. I completely agree. The pressure lives on their sideline this week. If they can't cap this off, get the 2 seed and make their run, with their 11-0 team, when will they?

[GoldstoneCat]

MSU teams that lost to UM the last two times were high powered offenses with suspect defense. This team has a high-powered defense, with an offense capable of putting up points. Defense travels, Cats 35-20.

Agreed defense travels and I like our odds this year for that reason, but I’m not recalling our defense in 21’ as suspect.
Troy, Hardy, Okada, Benson, I’m drawing a blank on the safety that went to Falcons mini camp as well, etc, that defense was loaded.

This years defense is better as a whole, but it’s hard to call 21’s defense suspect.

They were loaded and outside of 1 play didn't really play that bad, UM kicked 5 field goals in that game and we played offense with both hands tied behind our backs. The difference i see in this year's defense is that we're more sound and more mature within this scheme. These guys up front have all played this defense for 4-5 years now. The linebackers have grown up in it. The speed at safety is excellent. And as others have said, led by some more edgy, chirpy guys on both sides of the ball (Lamson, Davis, Crews, the corners) and a bit of a different posture from Vigen and the staff, this team plays with more edge and swagger than any of the last 4.