2025 Path to the Playoffs WEEK 12 – Top 16 Bracket; Big Sky Predictions; Best Offense/Defense

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[Catprint]

WEEK 12 – Top 16 Bracket; Big Sky Predictions; Best Offense/Defense

Way too much going on in life to get much of a post early. But figured people need something to read Saturday waiting for the late, late show. Much more next week before the Brawl.

Who We Want to Lose – Last Week

Great week last week. We got five out of 10 games. The losses damaged the playoff options (Top 8 seed or even getting in) of a number of teams.

1) SDSU@USD –SDSU TO LOSE. GOT IT. SDSU is on the ropes. Have to win this week.

2) NDSU @ UND –NDSU TO LOSE. NOPE. NDSU knows how to win the close games.

3) SIU @ Youngstown –YGU TO LOSE. – NOPE, Brungard is super.

4) UNH @ Monmouth –MONMOUTH TO LOSE. -GOT IT. This will drop Monmouth out of the Top 8 with limited chance to get in.

5) URI @ Elon –– URI TO LOSE. NOPE. URI’s path to CAA auto-bid is theirs for the taking

6) Mercer @ Western Carolina –MERCER TO LOSE. NOPE But what a game. Maybe WCU still gets a playoff spot.

7) SELA @ Lamar –– SELA TO LOSE. GOT IT

8 ) Utah Tech @ ACU –ACU TO LOSE. NOPE

9) UNC @ NAU –UNC to Lose. GOT IT

10) Davis @ Idaho –IDAHO TO LOSE. GOT IT


THIS WEEK

Going to narrow down the bubble teams this week. And maybe cut the MVFC from a 7-bid league (not really going to happen) to a 5 or 6 team league although it is possible only 1 of them gets a Top 8 seed and only 3 get a Top 16 seed. Guess we will see what the committee really thinks about the MVFC over the up and comers from the East and South (Tarleton, Lehigh, Mercer, Monmouth).

1) URI @ MAINE –Who would have thought Maine would be in the playoff conversation? Sitting at 6-4, Maine could be in with two wins. Why not make the CAA total chaos? Plus, we still don’t like the Rams so URI TO LOSE.

2) STONY BROOK @ VILLANOVA – Stony Brook could give Nova a game. More chaos in the CAA so NOVA TO LOSE.

3) USD @ SIU –I really don’t want to face a resurgent South Dakota in the playoffs but this is their last game. I don’t think SIU is playing well enough to get the win. But USD might get a top 16 seed at 8-4. And there could be 5 teams from Missouri Valley who are 8-4. That is going to give a huge headache to the committee and frankly the Cats could end up playing 2 straight MVFC teams in the playoffs. That would be a bummer. So, USD TO LOSE.

4) Illinois State @ SDSU – I can’t figure this game out nor SDSU. Guess I would like the Jacks to lose out so they miss the playoffs. Not likely but we can dream so JACKS TO LOSE.

5) Charleston Southern @ UT Martin – Two bids in the OVC? Only if UT Martin wins out, including beating Tenn. Tech next week. Not great for Big Sky bids plus do we want to play UT Martin again? No way so UTM TO LOSE.

6) LAMAR @ SFA – Lamar winning here will really make a mess of the bubble. SFA could still win the Southland. Certainly, would make it possible for three Southland. Plus, Lamar has a win over South Dakota so do you bring in an 8-4 USD but not a 9-3 Lamar if they lose to SFA? In fact, Lamar could snag a top 16 spot with a win this week and next week. So SFA TO LOSE.

7) SELA @ UIW – Simple here. Let’s create total bubble havoc and make the committee pick a bunch of 8-4 MVFC teams over a 9-3 SELA or 9-3 Lamar. That will make the Internet catch fire on Selection Sunday. So UIW TO LOSE.

8 ) ACU @ EKU – Abilene is one team on the bubble while actually in the running for a Top 16 seed. Two FBS loses, lots of ranked wins, beat Tarleton State. I think it actually helps the Cats for ACU to be a top 16 so EKU TO LOSE.



BEST OFFENSE/BEST DEFENSE

OFFENSE

By adding Mercer to the mix and opening my list to the Top 14, I have brought in two high flying pass happy offenses in the last couple of weeks – Monmouth and Mercer. Surprisingly, the Cats sore to the top of the chart partly due to their dominating win over Weber; partly due to Monmouth’s poor showing against UNH; partly due to Tarleton’s bye and finally partly due to our balance. This week we are #3 in scoring; number 1 in rushing, and #10 in passing. Sure, the numbers are not weighted by SOS or degree of difference but so what? It shows the Cats have a powerful offense compared to other Top 8 or top 10 playoff teams.



DEFENSE

Defense is no surprise. NDSU sits at the top of the Top teams. Harvard still sitting at number 2 and the Cats at # 3. What is interesting for us as Cats fans is that UC Davis sits at number 12 and Gris at number 13. When I listen and read about Davis and Gris, I hear their defenses are solid, good, and so on. The numbers nationally of top teams don’t necessarily support that position. Gris are near the bottom of every category among the top 14 – 14th in passing D; 10th in rushing D; 13th in scoring D. Davis is solidly at #12 in almost every defense category. There have been lots of posts about the stats when only Big Sky conference games are considered. Those stats are pretty similar. Gris are 2nd in scoring D but 7 points more than the Cats; 5th in Total Defense and dead last in passing defense. Davis is 11th in passing D and 6th in total defense. I imagine we may see more passing in those two games than we typically see. Maybe.



COMBINED RANK

The Cats balance on offense and defense finally has pushed us to the top of the heap. Part of the reason is the lame offensive performance of NDSU last week against UND and Tennessee Tech’s drop back in the last couple of weeks. The Cats’ strong performance on offense playing UNC and Weber while a consistent strong defense demonstrates a balance that gives us the #1 position this week. Does it mean much? No, it doesn’t mean much.




BRACKET OF TOP 16

Way too hard to do a full bracket this week. You can look at the various FCS experts (Herder, McKinnell, Haley, etc.) and will see lots of variation on bubble teams. At this point, there are at least 21 teams in the running for what I think are maybe 8 at-large spots truly available. It is a crap shoot so it’s better to wait a week.

What I will do is share my Top 8 predictions and my Top 16 seeds. This is a slightly safer to put out there.

TOP 8 SEEDS



My Top 8 is no particular surprise. I have Cats at #2 and Gris at #3 based on winning the Brawl. If it goes the wrong way, Cats might end up at #4. I think Lehigh hangs at #4 and I don’t think they necessarily pass the loser of the Brawl. Tarleton State is at #5 and they could push past Lehigh with a couple of strong showings. Spots 6 -8 are a somewhat a mix. Mercer replaced Monmouth after the latter’s loss to UNH last week. I do think it is possible Monmouth, URI or Davis could sneak into the Top 8 given the right combination of games going their way.

2nd 16 Seeds


The 2nd 8 is really just throwing a dart at the target. There are still too many games. I don’t have Ill. State in the top 16 because I think they might lose their last two games - but they could be there with a win over SDSU. I have UND at 15 but they have to win their last game against the Jacks. I have Youngstown at 13 because they have the easiest schedule of bubble team MVFC teams in the last two weeks. They will be 8-4 and have given a run for NDSU’s money. Why do I have ACU at #16? I am 90% sure they win their last two games and they have two FBS losses and 4 ranked wins (2 now ranked – Tarleton and SFA). That means a lot to the committee. That said, it is even possible they would be on the bubble. There are other possible teams such as SDSU, Lamar, USD, and Illinois State who could nab a 2nd 8 seed depending on this weeks games.

BIG SKY PREDICTIONS



So last week, I went 6-0 with predictions. But it is hard to believe the Gris pulled another rabbit out of the hat. But hey, maybe next year Eastern will be someone to contend with if this quarterback sticks around. There are still 5 teams technically alive for a playoff berth. The reality is that the Big Sky might only get 3 teams in the bracket but can’t get more than 4 in my opinion. Sac State has to win out to get in and that means Davis ends up at 7-4 which likely keeps them out. There are too many teams on the bubble. This week….

UNC @ EWU – I was going to stick with my earlier predictions that UNC beats Eastern. However, the reality is Eastern seems to be on the uptick and Northern Colorado is not showing the early season promise. What is amazing is that if Eastern can beat UNC and then finish the season with a win at Cal Poly, they end up at 5-3 and likely in a tie for 4th place. Simply unthinkable when they opened conference play with a 57-3 loss to the Cats. But they didn’t play Idaho, Davis or NAU so they missed #3, #4, and #7 best teams. Their schedule really helped them out. EWU 24 – UNC 14

Cal Poly @ NAU – The Jacks have their backs against the wall. Poly is not showing their early season promise. NAU needs style points so they try to run up the score. NAU 38 – Cal Poly 17

Weber @ Idaho State – Feel bad for Weber’s coach getting canned but it has been a very quick slide from top of the top of the Big Sky for three years (2017-2019) to cellar dwellers. Idaho State has some moxie. The Bengals should pull off a victory at home - ISU 31 – Weber 13

Idaho @ Sacramento State – Might be an interesting game. Sac is still hoping for a winning season and a slight chance of a playoff spot. I think they could lose both games but that depends on whether Idaho can generate any offense. I will stick with my pick of Idaho upsetting Sac State only because I really want Sac to be no better than 6-6. If wishes were fishes. It should be the Lumber Classic – The mouth of Sac State’s president – Luke Wood vs the arm of the Vandals quarterback – Joshua Woods. Maybe the stronger club will win! Idaho 35 – Sac State 33.

Gris @ PSU – why bother? Just phone it in Bobbie. Even in Providence Park downtown, the Vikings will look downtrodden. Any chance of an upset? Don’t think so. I read Bobbie is 13-0 in games before the Brawl so never seems to have a trap game… Still, ahh – NO. Gris 42 – PSU 10


Davis @ Cats – Everyone (FCS podcasters; beat writers; McKinnell, Herder, etc.) predicting a win; all by double figures; some even a blowout. All makes me nervous but seems warranted. I will settle for a 33-17 win.

[Montanabob]

Murray St ahead of UND 9-7 halftime.
First time this season 0-10 Murray was ahead of an opponent.

[RickRund]

YSU and Indi St 28-26 YSU with a minute left in the 2nd quarter.

[Montanabob]

and Harvard losing.

[RickRund]

and Harvard losing.

Losing 27-21 at the half.

Halftime with YSU up 31-26.

[OutlanderCatAlum]

Just listening to the Jackrabbit game with Illinois St. Jacks down 28-0 in second quarter.

[OutlanderCatAlum]

SDSU 0 Illinois St. 35

(still 2nd qtr)