North Dakota State Bison Scouting Report

[BWahlberg]

Alright you damn Cat fans… here’s what I’ve got for ya!

As you guys have known for a few days now, you’ve got a national title game rematch on deck as the NDSU Bison and their annoying-ass fans are up next in the playoffs. In the pre-season NDSU was picked to finish 2nd in the conference but then wound up losing 3 conference games to finish tied (technically) for 3rd with YSU, UND, and UNI.

At the start of the season NDSU had 14 players voted on their MVFC preseason team. 4 on the first team (FB, OL, DL, PR/KR), 8 on the second (RB, TE, 2 OL, DL, LB, CB, K), and 2 honorable mentions (WR & LB). At seasons end the all conference teams carried their FB (Brozio) to first team, two OL (Kubas / Sundell), a DL (Hendricks), LB (Kopp), a DB (Wisenewski), and their long snapper (also Brozio) all on the first team. Their QB Cam Miller made 2nd team as did one of their D-linemen (Mostaert). I see 1 honorable mention for them as well, the MVFC doesn’t have a 3rd team interestingly.

NDSU didn’t have the regular season their fanbase expected and mid-way through the year there was a “Return to Tradition” push wanting their coach run out of town and replaced with someone who can bring back more traditional power running. I think I saw Vigen’s name as a message board suggestion. And yes the irony isn’t lost on me that as a Montana fan we’ve flown a banner of “return to dominance” for years just to see NDSU echoing that a bit haha.

North Dakota State Bison 9-3

35-10 win vs EWU: NDSU ran for almost 340 yards, and passed for another 175 as they just slowly and steadily outpaced Eastern. EWU did put up some passing yards, 267, but they had no luck on the ground – 72 yards on 28 attempts, a 2.6 YPC average. NDSU had nearly 34:00 of TOP.

44-7 win vs Maine: NDSU again had a big ground game day with 264 rushing, they outgained Maine 456 total yards to 226 total. Maine tossed 3 interceptions in the game while NDSU had no turnovers. NDSU punted once the whole day, they did have 2 turnovers on downs as well. They had 35:00 TOP and held Maine to just 54 total plays on offense.

49-31 win vs Central Arkansas: UCA tried… they were never really close against NDSU but were in the game for a half. With 6:30 to go before the half they score a TD to make it 28-17, down 11, but NDSU would add another score at the half, going up 35-17, and then score the next 14 going up 49-17 before UCA tacked on two late garbage time TDs. NDSU was really balanced on the day, 235 rushing and 246 passing. They did give up 221 rushing to UCA (77 of that on a long rushing TD), and 210 passing – however NDSU did grab 1 pick which they took to the house for a pick-6. Stop me if you heard this before, nearly 35:00 TOP for the Bison.

19-24 loss vs South Dakota: NDSU losing in conference, at home… now that’s not something we hear a lot. USD was up 21-3 at the half, it’s wild looking at the box score too. USD had just 4 first half possessions, the first 3 resulted in TDs, the 4th sent the game to halftime. NDSU only had 3 possessions the whole first half, a field goal, an interception, and a punt. In the 2nd half NDSU only had 3 more possessions total, they scored 2 TDs and 1 field goal – however in that hole USD made a field goal on one of their possessions and that kept the game out of reach. Looking at the box score NDSU outgained USD 350 to 270, they had 35:00 TOP, they were -1 in turnovers though and USD only faced 4 third downs the whole game USD had just 38 plays on offense to 65 for NDSU. Such an odd box score!

38-10 win @ Missouri State: Another big balanced attack for the Bison, 258 rushing, 276 passing and a +3 turnover margin grabbing 3 picks in the game.

24-49 loss @ North Dakota: This one I caught a little bit of and I was honestly pretty shocked. I did not recognize NDSU at all in this game. UND opened with a kickoff housecall to start the game and never trailed the whole day. In the 2nd half UND scored 4 TDs in a row to take the game from a 28-17 UND lead to a 49-17 lead. UND had a good day running on the Bison, 210 on the ground. NDSU had a turnover on downs and tossed a pick in the game, plus they only ran for 148… really out of character. As we all know North Dakota just lost to Sac State in the playoffs last week – who MSU beat by 10 earlier this year.

52-7 win vs Western Illinois: As expected a rebound ass-kicking as in order against winless WIU. 425 rushing, 200 passing, and holding WIU to a total of 184 yards on the day.

38-6 win vs Murray State: A little lower output for the Bison, about 200 passing and 175 rushing. Murray was totally shut down just like WIU was, 164 total yards on offense.

16-33 loss @ South Dakota State: NDSU went up 6-0 due to a blocked PAT, SDSU answered and grabbed a 7-6 lead, NDSU replied with a fieldgoal, recapturing the lead, 9-7… From there though, SDSU was unstoppable. They re-took the lead with a field goal, and then proceeded to score 20 points in their next 5 possessions (2 TDs, 2 FGs, 1 punt). On the other side of the ball NDSU would go 3 and out, then lose a fumble, then miss two field goals in a row, then toss an interception. NDSU was -3 on the day and missed 2 field goals. The teams were somewhat evenly matched in yards 365 for SDSU and 325 for NDSU (difference in a little more passing for SDSU). TOP was essentially split and NDSU was 4 for 12 on 3rd down.

34-10 win vs Southern Illinois: With their playoff hopes on the line NDSU’s postseason essentially started with this game. SIU (who plays Idaho this weekend) absolutely fell into the machine that NDSU runs well. The Bison had 220 rushing, 230 passing, and held the ball for 38:00 TOP – all while being held to just 206 total yards, only 56 on the ground.

48-27 win @ UNI: Coming off the SIU win I think NDSU probably was “in” the playoffs regardless this game, however UNI was playing for a spot and NDSU had to seal the deal to ensure a playoff bid. UNI has/had a potent passing attack and they got their yards through the air, 341 passing… however… they also tossed 4 picks in the game. NDSU would even take one to the house for a score as well. Both teams finished with just over 400 total yards, NDSU’s as you’d expect was pretty balanced.

66-3 win vs Drake: I had this on the TV but was following the Delaware game more. Drake grabs a fumble and kicks a field goal, it’s 3-0, holy sh*t. In true dumbass me on twitter when it was 7-3 NDSU or something I tweet about NDSU having some issues with Drake. Well… NDSU would score TDs on 6 of their next 7 drives and kick a field goal on the other. Drake did have a bit of success with a few long plays but ended up with just a little over 200 total yards and wound up losing 2 picks and 2 fumbles – one of which NDSU scooped and scored on. Something to follow though, I saw reports online that NDSU’s stud QB had aggravated a hurt shoulder in this game, although he seemed to play just fine through it.

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General Stats

Passing yards per game NDSU (211 for NDSU vs 176 for MSU)
Rushing yards per game MSU (240 for NDSU vs 294 for MSU)
Total offense MSU (451 for NDSU vs 470 for MSU)
Passing yards allowed per game NDSU (179 for NDSU vs 205 for MSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game NDSU (108 for NDSU vs 123 for MSU)
Total defense NDSU (287 for NDSU vs 327 for MSU)

NDSU, thanks so slightly better margins on all defensive categories gets 4 while MSU gets 2.

Offense points scored MSU (38.6 for NDSU vs 40.5 for MSU)
Defense points allowed NDSU (18.1 for NDSU vs 20.6 for MSU)
Turnover margin NDSU (+13 for NDSU / +9 for MSU)
Fieldgoal % NDSU (83% for NDSU vs 59% for MSU)
Punt Returns NDSU (10.3 yards for NDSU vs 9.3 yards for MSU)
Kick Returns NDSU (20.1 yards for NDSU vs 19.5 yards for MSU)
T.O.P. NDSU (33:23 for NDSU vs 29:43 for MSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) NDSU (50% NDSU / 68% MSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) MSU (68% NDSU / 72.5% MSU)
3rd down offense NDSU – (51% for NDSU / 45% for MSU)
3rd down defense NDSU – (32% allowed for NDSU vs 34% allowed for MSU)

Again, lots of close numbers but a slight tip to NDSU in many categories. MSU gets 2, NDSU gets 9. That puts a total of NDSU 13, MSU 4. One thing that was interesting to me was that both MSU and NDSU’s turnover differential is entirely thanks to interceptions – probably by virtue that both are run-heavy teams and don’t pass as much. Both were neutral on fumbles lost vs fumbles recovered.

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NDSU Players to Watch:

#7 Cam Miller, QB: Bum shoulder and all, he’s the guy that makes their offense go. He’s the leading rusher with 625 net yards and 11 rushing TDs. He’s passing for just about 188 yards per game and has 16 TD passes to just 4 interceptions. Expect to also see backup QB #9 Cole Payton who is 6-3, 230. He’s got just 277 passing yards and 3 passing TDs this season, however, he has a 3rd best 488 rushing yards and 2nd best 10 rushing TDs on the season.

#22 TaMerik Williams, RB: A 6-1, 227 pound running back he’s got the most carries in the room with 94, he’s got 507 rushing yards and 5 rushing TDs this season. They’ll rotate in another big guy in #8, Barika Kpeenu, as well, he’s got 424 on the ground and 4 TDs. Neither RB’s have much for receiving stats.

#0 Zach Mathis, WR: Holy crap am I reading this right? He’s 6-7 and 203 pounds. Kid’s a 6th year senior and leads the team in receptions (42), yards (614), and receiving TDs (5).

#3 RaJa Nelson, WR: He isn’t 6-7, he’s 5-9 and 187 pounds. Nelson kind of does a lot on this team. He’s their most dangerous kick returner with a 28.4 yard per return average, he’s 3rd on the team in receiving with 363 yards and 2 TDs, he also has 222 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs.

#13 Eli Green, WR: 600 yards and 2 TDs for Green this year, he has nearly a 20 yard per catch average, maybe a bigger play guy for their passing game. Green also does kick returns, his average is far more favorable for an opponent, under 18 yards per return – so kick to him.

#49 Hunter Brozio, FB: This guy doesn’t get the ball, he’s just a damn good lead blocker. In his 4 year career he has 1 rush attempt, 14 receptions, and 1 TD. This guy is first team as a snapper and a fullback, just something we don’t see a lot in the Big Sky.

#31 Cole Wisniewski, S: Cole is a stat monster, he had a team high 70 tackles, a team best 5 interceptions, team best 10 pass breakups, and 1 forced fumble. As I mentioned earlier the 6-4, 217 pound senior finished first team all conference.

#54 Jake Kava, DE: a 6-1, 250 pound DE that’s tops on the team in sacks with 6 and TFLs with 10. Interestingly no forced fumbles and just 1 QB hit. He’s got 41 tackles this season.

#95 Dylan Hendricks, DE: He’s 6-3, 257, and made 1st team all MVFC. He’s got 34 tackles, 5.5 sacks and 8.5 TFLs as well as 1 forced fumble.

#23 Jayden Price, CB: Price is another guy that you’ll see in multiple spots. He’s got 41 tackles, 2.5 TFLs, and 1 sack. He’s also got 2 interceptions and 1 fumble recovery. You’ll see him on punts too, he’s got a solid 10.3 average on returns and has 1 TD there.

#43 Logan Kopp, LB: The 6-1, 222 pound backer made first team MV as well. He’s 2nd on the team in tackles with 69 (nice), he’s got 7.5 TFLs and 3.5 sacks. He’s got 3 interceptions, 2 forced fumbles, and 7 passes defended. This guy is all over the field.


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Keys to a victory

1. Make the most of every damn possession. NDSU’s game plan is to slow the whole thing down and limit your touches on offense. They do this through slow/methodical power drives. The MSU defense has to shake off their showing in the brawl and tighten up fast. They’re going to face a faster/smoother, *possibly* better, QB than McDowell and a stronger running game over all. Their offense won’t have as many wrinkles and tricky stuff though, they’ll just want to smash. Every cat possession needs to end with points or at least flipping the field. If MSU is given less than 10 total possessions they need points on 7 or more, even if they’re just field goals.

2. Make NDSU punt 3 or more times and have 2 more “empty” possessions. That can be turnovers forced, missed field goals, turnovers on downs, etc. If NDSU is going to play keep away then they can hurt themselves if they have a handful of drives that result in no points.

3. Test Miller’s health. Make him feel it every single down. Those hits will sting more in the cold when compared to a warm/cozy dome. Add in the weather might be cooler with some rain/snow and wind? Oh yeah, make sure that indoor QB knows what playing outdoors feels like a lot.

4. Cats have to flip the script in the redzone. NDSU is forcing field goal attempts on half of every drive that enters their RZ – MSU has to be more proficient than that, those RZ drives need to end in touchdowns.

5. Do what you do best. I doubt your OC reads a rival fans scouting post on BN but if he did I’d tell him he’s f*cking crazy if he thinks having Tommy pass 15+ times is going to win the game. NDSU loves to snag passes and *could* feast on that if so. Use more of Chambers and smash them in the trenches.

6. Cat fans need to be the 6th man. Yes NDSU has been in some hostile spots, however they’re 1-2 in ranked road games this season. There was 13,000 fans at the UND loss, there was 19,430 at the SDSU loss, and there were almost 10,000 at the UNI win. Interesting to see their one ranked road win came in a dome as well. Add that fan noise to the weather/outdoor factor and you’ll rattle them.

7. Don’t get burned on special teams. If you can, pin the punts and send those kickoffs through the endzone. (I know you’d rather not) but think back to the Brawl, MSU starts the 2nd half with a TD and are back in it, then promptly give up a near 50 yard return, Montana’s in the endzone soon enough after and the narrative has flipped again. NDSU has good returners, don’t let them flip momentum.
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Alright, the stats aren’t in your favor but if you look at many of them, they’re pretty close – it isn’t some large disparaging difference. Furthermore some of the areas where NDSU has really excelled in games, you guys don’t do (such as throw interceptions). NDSU is 1-2 against ranked teams on the road and 0-2 when it’s an outdoor game – that’s a huge advantage for the Cats. I also think teams like Montana and Idaho have the benefit of seeing you guys on film almost weekly, especially when conference play hits. UM and UI build better plans to stopping your rushing attack, where as I don’t think NDSU will be as well prepared for it. If it’s 3rd and 5+ and NDSU goes into some 3 man front with 6 DBs in a zone – you’ll run for continual first downs and be up enough on the scoreboard that by the time they adjust it’ll be too late. I’m also a little suspect of their rush defense, kind of like last years Griz team they had games were they totally shut down a few teams that really tipped the stats more in their favor. I feel like the MSU ground game will find traction here.

It's not going to be easy, if you fall into NDSU’s trap, like you did with Idaho and Montana… well then… it could be a frustrating day. Even if you don’t, it’ll probably be a close one well into the 4th quarter. For all the reasons though that I just listed, and as I said on the GFP, I think the Cats find a way. I’ll say the final score goes in your favor, 27-21.

[lakesbison]

lol. The fire Vigen and hire Vigen save season threads on Bisonville was me messing with him. We don’t want him back. Willie Mack can come party w me again anytime like we did back at JTS in Fargo

All the history BS is out the window with this bison team they don’t have the balls or nastiness as the dynasty teams. But they have come on the last 3-4 games and Confidence is a mofo…

[kwcat]

Thanks Brint

[Clinton T]

Appreciate the work Brint - it is certainly appreciated and would be welcome every week! The Cats team will need to tackle and match NDSU's physicality to have a chance to win. They tackle like they did against the griz, it's game over. I still have PTSD from the last time we played NDSU at home...

[Catprint]

Thanks for the analysis. Mostly spot on and very enjoyable read. Only quibble is your final score of 27-21 doesn't quite fit with the high-scoring aspect and "the need to score points on 7 out of 10 possessions." I would think more along the lines of 38-34 but not sure which way.

[91catAlum]

Appreciate this, Brint! Good analysis!

[BWahlberg]

Thanks for the analysis. Mostly spot on and very enjoyable read. Only quibble is your final score of 27-21 doesn't quite fit with the high-scoring aspect and "the need to score points on 7 out of 10 possessions." I would think more along the lines of 38-34 but not sure which way.

Uhhhh…

1 TD, 1 TD w/2 point convo, 4 field goals.

Damnit - you got me there honestly

[BelligerentBobcat]

Thanks for the analysis. Mostly spot on and very enjoyable read. Only quibble is your final score of 27-21 doesn't quite fit with the high-scoring aspect and "the need to score points on 7 out of 10 possessions." I would think more along the lines of 38-34 but not sure which way.

Uhhhh…

1 TD, 1 TD w/2 point convo, 4 field goals.

Damnit - you got me there honestly

If you think either of our kickers are making 4 FG’s, you might be the most optimistic Cat fan in the state.

[damnyoutuesday]

Thanks as always Brint!

[PapaG]

I have absolutely no idea what to expect on Saturday from the stands after the Gris blowout. The Cats that played two weeks ago seem like a completely different team than what they showed the first 10 games. Was that just their worst possible performance coupled with UM playing their best game? I’d like to think so because I have no idea what team that was in Missoula and it makes me much less confident in what I thought as a realistic round of 16 outcome prior to that game.

Have t been clueless on how a game will go going into a Bobcat game as a fan in Vigen’s two years. I had UM winning but by only a TD, not a complete beatdown that seemingly came out of nowhere.

[cats2506]

Brint's scouting reports are about the only thing I read over on that other site anymore. Every other thread turns into a 5th grade pissing match after about 3 posts.
Thanks for doing this Brint.

[Prodigal Cat]

I have absolutely no idea what to expect on Saturday from the stands after the Gris blowout. The Cats that played two weeks ago seem like a completely different team than what they showed the first 10 games. Was that just their worst possible performance coupled with UM playing their best game? I’d like to think so because I have no idea what team that was in Missoula and it makes me much less confident in what I thought as a realistic round of 16 outcome prior to that game.

Have t been clueless on how a game will go going into a Bobcat game as a fan in Vigen’s two years. I had UM winning but by only a TD, not a complete beatdown that seemingly came out of nowhere.

Well put. It wasn't that it was such a poor showing, to me it's how ill prepared and seemly little fire the team had. How badly some of the leaders on the team seemed to play. I have confidence that the Cats have the talent and ability to win Saturday and make a run but what happened the last game is one of the more head scratching sports moments for me. If Saturday is the final game this season it will probably surpass 2013 as the most disappointed I am about the way it played out, ever. I'm still 100% GO CATS however.

[Bobcat4Ever]

Thanks, Brint. Your scouting report reinforces my belief that, despite bracket seeding, these are two of the best four or five teams in the FCS. A second round matchup? I guess the only excuse is “regionalization.”