Dougherty Picks...

[iaafan]

1AAfan... totally agree... why don't you send your thoughts to Dougherty and let him know.... you are right on.

The thing is that YSU isn't the only team that will potentially buffalo the selection committee.

This situation - depending on a group of guys, who may not take their job very seriously - is exactly why I was harping about the Cats playing such a difficult schedule to begin with. Take out Cal Poly and put in So. Utah and MSU still has a tough enough schedule and is 7-2 right now with 8-3 being a shoo-in.

[Platinumcat]

I sent this e-mail to Matt. His response is included:

Just from talking to committee members, I get the feel that they are hesitant to open the door to 7-4 teams over other that finish 10-1 or 9-2 (Coastal & SC State, for example). Appalachian State is a different case because they played a pair of I-A opponents, so they'd have a 7-2 record against I-AA competition. I think MSU would have a case at 7-4, probably the best case for inclusion along with Illinois State at that mark. But, consider this: a four-loss team hasn't taken an at-large berth since 1995. So, while it's possible, history indicates it will be a tough feat to pull off.

Don't worry too much about the GPI, the committee uses their own regional rankings more than any formula.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jason Wiers
To: mdougherty@sportsnetwork.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 09, 2005 11:10 AM
Subject: Comments


Matt,

I’m not sure I follow your logic on potential playoff teams. The reason I say this is if you really analyze the criteria for at-large selection, there are several teams who could be more worthy as 8-3 or even 7-4 teams then 9-2 or better. To remind you:



The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket; 2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference; 3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected; 4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and 5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.


I bold the above sections to point out that the committee is searching for the best teams available. Does a record by itself qualify a team? Does an index such as GPI more accurately point to the teams that are more deserving? I guess I find it amazing that the highest rated conference in the country could potentially only have one representative in the playoffs; more then one is deserved and to leave a second team at home because of strictly won/loss records is not right.



I also find it interesting that you say Montana State’s chances of making it into the playoffs at 7-4 are unrealistic. Yet you turn around and say that Appalachian State would have a good chance with the same record. I realize that Appalachian has a higher GPI rating. But, both are in the top 10. To me, two highly rated teams at 7-4 are more deserved of playoff games then teams who play in lower level leagues or have schedules that are softer on paper.



I continue to enjoy and look forward to the articles you put out every week. You are obviously more in tune with nationwide I-AA topics. So, I look forward to your reply should you find the time to do so.



Thanks,

Jason Wiers

[iaafan]

I sent this e-mail to Matt. His response is included:

Just from talking to committee members, I get the feel that they are hesitant to open the door to 7-4 teams over other that finish 10-1 or 9-2 (Coastal & SC State, for example). Appalachian State is a different case because they played a pair of I-A opponents, so they'd have a 7-2 record against I-AA competition. I think MSU would have a case at 7-4, probably the best case for inclusion along with Illinois State at that mark. But, consider this: a four-loss team hasn't taken an at-large berth since 1995. So, while it's possible, history indicates it will be a tough feat to pull off.

Don't worry too much about the GPI, the committee uses their own regional rankings more than any formula.
----- Original Message -----
From: Jason Wiers
To: mdougherty@sportsnetwork.com
Sent: Wednesday, November 09, 2005 11:10 AM
Subject: Comments


Matt,

I’m not sure I follow your logic on potential playoff teams. The reason I say this is if you really analyze the criteria for at-large selection, there are several teams who could be more worthy as 8-3 or even 7-4 teams then 9-2 or better. To remind you:



The committee shall select the best teams available on a national at-large basis to complete the bracket; 2. There is no limit to the number of teams the committee may select from one conference; 3. The won-lost record of a team will be scrutinized to determine a team’s strength of schedule; however, less than seven Division I wins will place a team in jeopardy of not being selected; 4. The committee may give more consideration to those teams that have played all Division I opponents; and 5. If the team of a committee member is under consideration, the member may not vote for the team being considered and will not be in the room when a vote is taken.


I bold the above sections to point out that the committee is searching for the best teams available. Does a record by itself qualify a team? Does an index such as GPI more accurately point to the teams that are more deserving? I guess I find it amazing that the highest rated conference in the country could potentially only have one representative in the playoffs; more then one is deserved and to leave a second team at home because of strictly won/loss records is not right.



I also find it interesting that you say Montana State’s chances of making it into the playoffs at 7-4 are unrealistic. Yet you turn around and say that Appalachian State would have a good chance with the same record. I realize that Appalachian has a higher GPI rating. But, both are in the top 10. To me, two highly rated teams at 7-4 are more deserved of playoff games then teams who play in lower level leagues or have schedules that are softer on paper.



I continue to enjoy and look forward to the articles you put out every week. You are obviously more in tune with nationwide I-AA topics. So, I look forward to your reply should you find the time to do so.



Thanks,

Jason Wiers

Bare-Chested One: I think you used a bad example with App. State. They and Cal Poly would definitley be ahead of MSU if all were 7-4.

But Doherty says that Illinois State is the best of the 7-4 teams and compares MSU to them. That's unbeleivable. Get this: Illinois State has wins over Drake (5-4 in the pioneer, one of the worst I-AA of all) and they were pasted by a number of teams. They have another win over Murray State, which was 1-8 in the one of the lower level auto-bid conferences. The play these two and a I-A, while MSU takes on three very good I-AAs and one I-A. How can he say Illinois St. and MSU are similar?

This explanation makes him out of tune, not in tune. You gave him way too much credit. Also look at his statement about YSU and then look at the reality. YSU played crap outside of their conference (Slippery Rock DII, and two 1-8 teams from I-AA) with the exception of Pitt. But they got wiped out by Pitt, MSU nearly beat OSU.