Last week, for the third week in a row, the Sagarin projections were 100% correct, bringing the year-to-date projections to 76.4% correct. This week's projected winners are:
Montana over Northern Colorado in Greely
Eastern Washington over Idaho State in Cheney
Northern Arizona over Weber State in Flagstaff
Portland State over Sacramento State in Sacramento
The Bobcats are idle.
This week's projection of the final conference standings is:
Montana: 10-1 Overall, 8-0 Conference
Montana State: 7-4 Overall, 6-2 Conference
Portland State: 7-4 Overall, 6-2 Conference
Northern Arizona: 6-5 Overall, 5-3 Conference
Sacramento State: 4-7 Overall, 4-4 Conference
Weber State: 4-7 Overall, 3-5 Conference
Eastern Washington: 3- 8 Overall, 3-5 Conference
Idaho State: 2- 9 Overall, 1-7 Conference
Northern Colorado: 1-10 Overall, 0-8 Conference
It would appear that Bobcat fans should root for Sacramento State to beat Portland State and for North Dakota State to beat Cal Poly this week. There are lots of other D-1AA games this week that would be critical to the Bobcats if they were to end up at 7-4. What's everyone's take on the games we should be watching and who we should be rooting for since we only get to watch this week?
Week 11 Sagarin Projections
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ZifCat52
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Platinumcat
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Some others thanks to Matt Dougherty:
No. 16 Coastal Carolina (7-2, 2-0) at Gardner-Webb (6-3, 2-1), 1:30
With losses from contenders throughout the country helping to clear the way, Coastal Carolina can feel pretty safe that a 9-2 record will get it into the postseason this year. Now, the Chants just have to get there. They host Charleston Southern next week in a game that could feature ranked teams in the Big South, but getting through Gardner-Webb on the road might be even tougher. The Bulldogs lost at Charleston Southern last week, but they have a similar make-up to the Buccaneers with a strong passing game and an improving defense. Quarterback Devin Campbell (1873 yards, 13 TD/13 INT) has the ability to make things happen if he can avoid interceptions, and the defense has a more respectable resume than it did a year ago, though the numbers are still pretty poor. The Chants, however, match up well for both of the next two weeks against teams with good passing games and average defenses. Coastal Carolina leads the nation with 121.1 yards per game allowed through the air, and has recorded 11 interceptions with seven touchdowns given up. They are porous against the run, but the Bulldogs might not be able to exploit that weakness with a suspect running game. If Coastal Carolina can make a few plays against Campbell and the passing game, it should be able to capitalize on offense. Tyler Thigpen (2314 yards, 21 TD/8 INT) and Jerome Simpson (746 receiving yards, 11 TD) form a lethal combination in the passing game, and the Chants should do well against a defense with a bad overall track record against the pass. Coastal Carolina rarely blows people out, so a close game would not be a surprise. But the matchups look good here, and the Chants figure to move one win closer to looking pretty good on selection Sunday. Prediction: Coastal Carolina 34, Gardner-Webb 24
No. 13 New Hampshire (6-3, 3-3) at Rhode Island (4-5, 2-4), 12:00
Three losses in the last four games leave a New Hampshire team that started 5-0, held the No. 1 ranking for five weeks and won 34-17 at Northwestern on the brink of playoff elimination. The Wildcats have to win out on the road to make the playoffs after last week’s 28-20 loss to Massachusetts, where stars Ricky Santos and David Ball played well but the defense and running game had a tough day again. Santos (2254 yards, 21 TD/3 INT) completed 35-of-55 passes for 385 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss, but he’s had to carry too much of the offense with 45 or more passing attempts in each of the three defeats. Ball (67 receptions, 818 yards, 11 TD) is far and away the best wide receiver in I- AA and maybe the best overall player in the sub-classification, but that duo can’t do it alone. New Hampshire’s running game has plummeted to 3.94 yards per carry after posting one of the most productive resumes in the first month of the season, and the defense is allowing a lot of yardage and 24 ppg while only recording 15 turnovers after excelling in that area a year ago. The offense is still third in the nation with 413.9 yards per game and second with 35.4 ppg, but they have a very tough test at Maine next week to make a playoff berth a reality. The Wildcats should at least get to that point unscathed, because Rhode Island doesn’t possess the firepower to keep up in this game. The Rams average 195 rushing yards per game with an option offense, but they only record 3.7 yards per carry and score 18 ppg. The Ram defense is getting better and ranks 14th nationally against the pass, but they don’t have the ability to keep up for 60 minutes with a New Hampshire offense that is explosive and playing for its postseason life. The Wildcats will get a big test from Maine next week, but they’ll get there by knocking off the Rams. Prediction: New Hampshire 38, Rhode Island 21
Georgia Southern (3-6, 2-4) at No. 10 Furman (7-2, 5-1), 3:30
There’s no question that the first season of the Brian VanGorder era has been a huge disappointment for the faithful in Statesboro. A drop-off was expected, and no one considered the Eagles a playoff lock by any means. But last week’s 28-10 home loss to Wofford gave Georgia Southern a 2-4 home record, locked up a losing overall mark for the first time since 1996 and served as another indicator that the journey to become a dominant team with a conventional offense could take a long time. One victory is not going to make Eagle followers forget a down season, but it sure would feel sweet for the Eagles to end the playoff hopes of a rival on the road. Furman stayed alive in the playoff hunt by knocking off Elon, 24-13, last week. Fullback Jerome Felton (636 yards, 22 touchdowns) was back in the lineup in that game and quarterback Renaldo Gray is also healthy again to lead a Paladin offense that notches 175 rushing yards per game despite a rash of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The Furman defense struggled in its losses, but overall that unit has performed well with no more than 22 points allowed in any of the seven victories. The defense should be the key in this matchup, because Georgia Southern’s offense is just not the same. The Eagles have not scored more than 21 points in any game during their current three-game losing streak, and the rushing game that was strong early has faded to averaging 179 yards per game. Quarterback Travis Clark (1574 yards, 7 TD/2 INT) has shown flashes of good play, but threw for less than 100 yards in two of the last three games. That should mean a good day for the Furman defense, which limited a good Elon passing game last week. The Paladins can go to Cedrick Gipson (767 yards, 4 TD) and Felton against a suspect Eagle rushing defense, and should get the win with a playoff spot on the line. Look for Georgia Southern to provide a solid effort and keep it close in a rivalry game, but Furman will have too much in the end and probably get a playoff berth with a victory. Prediction: Furman 21, Georgia Southern 13
No. 19 Maine (6-3, 5-1) at No. 3 Massachusetts (8-1, 6-0), 12:00
I’ll be in Amherst this weekend, where the home team tries to move one step closer to a playoff seed and the Atlantic 10 automatic bid, while the visitors just try to hang on in the race for one more week. Maine maintained playoff prospects by throttling Northeastern, 30-3, on the strength of a punishing defense that got pressure all day and held the Huskies to 36 total rushing yards. Those numbers are in line with what the Black Bears have done all season, with a rushing defense that ranks third nationally with 62.7 yards per game and 1.97 yards per carry allowed. Maine’s 34 sacks also place fourth in the country, with Matt King leading the way with 9.5 sacks of his own. After giving up 34 points in the season opener at Youngstown State, the Black Bear defense has not allowed more than 17 points to any I-AA opponent, and has limited the last five opponents to 10 points or less. They have the ability to shut down any I-AA offense, but might have trouble matching the gaudy numbers against the balanced Minutemen. Running back Steve Baylark (1,133 yards, 10 TD) is going out with his best season as a senior and has five 100-yard efforts to his credit, while quarterback Liam Coen (1,855 yards, 17 TD/4 INT) has served as a perfect complement by completing 69 percent of his passes and leading the nation in pass efficiency. The offense will get its biggest test of the season, but an offense that scores 31.8 ppg should be able to find the endzone at least a couple times even against a great defense.
That will put some pressure on the Maine offense, which might have an even tougher matchup against the Massachusetts defense. The Minutemen have not dominated as thoroughly as the Black Bears on the defensive side of the ball, but a unit that allows only 104.4 rushing yards per game and ranks second nationally with 11 ppg surrendered doesn’t have any real holes. Jason Hatchell and James Ihedigbo lead a unit that is strong in every area, and will provide a major challenge for a Maine offense that hasn’t consistently produced. The Black Bears are averaging 180.3 yards per game on the ground, but the passing game hasn’t performed consistently and they are scoring a shade over 21 ppg. Quarterback Ron Whitcomb (1,013 yards, 8 TD/6 INT) does come off his best game of the season with a 17-of-21 effort for 281 yards and two touchdowns against Northeastern, and the Black Bears found more production in the passing game by putting running back Arel Gordon (788 yards, 5 TD) back into the receiving game, where he caught seven passes for 152 yards and two scores. If they can get that type of production from the passing game, the Black Bears can move the ball and put enough points on the board to pull off the upset in a close, low- scoring type of game. That’s possible, but I’m not going to take one game of production over a Massachusetts team that has played well on both sides of the ball all season. Maine stays in the game with its defense, but Massachusetts has too much firepower to be held down all game and will get the win to knock the Black Bears out of the playoff picture. Prediction: Massachusetts 20, Maine 10
No. 12 Northern Iowa (6-3, 4-1) at No. 14 Southern Illinois (6-3, 3-3), 4:00
The rankings might not make this look like the most important game of the week, but the playoff permutations are more important here than any game in the country. Coming into this week, Youngstown State and Illinois State look good for playoff berths out of the Gateway Conference, but both UNI and Southern Illinois are sitting on the bubble with tough work to do. But the thing is, this game isn’t necessarily just a winner is in, loser is out situation. If the Salukis get the victory, they can probably punch their playoff ticket, as long as they beat Southern Utah in the season finale at home. But if that happens, UNI would still win a tie for the conference automatic bid if Youngstown State loses this week and the Panthers knock off Illinois State in the season finale. A Southern Illinois win seems to put either three or four Gateway teams in the playoffs, but a UNI victory likely means the league will earn two or three spots. The Salukis would be out with a loss, and the Panthers would still have to beat Illinois State to win the league’s automatic bid and give the conference a third spot. With the whole country watching, these teams could be headed for another classic in their series that has heated up in the past three years. UNI holds a 2-1 record in the matchups since 2003, but every game has been decided by four points or loss and the total score is at an even 104-104.
That score means a lot of offense in the recent years, with finals of 43-40 (UNI), 40-36 (SIU), and 25-24 (UNI) displaying the ability of both offenses to move the ball. That should be true again, with UNI scoring 31.1 ppg and Southern Illinois doing them a few points better at 33.7 ppg. The Panthers already had to keep their hopes in good shape by rallying for a 31-20 win over Western Kentucky last week, and should be able to produce against a Southern Illinois defense that gave up 249 rushing yards to Youngstown State’s Marcus Mason on Saturday. The Salukis had done pretty well going into that game, but will get another test from a UNI running game that averages 215.6 yards per game and 5.35 yards per carry. The Panthers also have a reliable threat when they go to the air, with quarterback Eric Sanders (1632 yards, 12 TD/4 INT) already proven in these situations and completing 69 percent of his passes. They take on a Saluki defense that has allowed 24 points or more in four of the last five games, so the Panthers should be able to put up plenty of points.
The Salukis, however, can match UNI on the scoreboard. Running back Arkee Whitlock (1,191 yards, 14 TD) just put up 218 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Penguins and is capable of carrying the offense and notching a good number against a UNI defense that is tougher but has still given up a few big days. The Salukis average 230.7 yards per game on the ground, so they’ll need to stay at it and move in the rushing game against the Panthers. Southern Illinois could be in more trouble if it falls behind, since quarterback Nick Hill (1,256 yards, 9 TD/3 INT) has not been asked to win games with his arm and has only completed around 50 percent of his passes with more interceptions than touchdowns in the past three weeks. UNI has given up a lot of yards through the air, but also has more interceptions than touchdowns and can make a few big plays against Hill and the Saluki passing game. Still, the Salukis can put points up with Whitlock running for a big day, and make this a high-scoring game that comes down to the end. That makes it a toss-up, but the home team has fared well in this series and Whitlock can take over in the fourth quarter. That will be just enough for the Salukis, who move closer to the playoffs while making UNI hope for a Youngstown State loss. Prediction: Southern Illinois 31, UNI 28
No. 16 Coastal Carolina (7-2, 2-0) at Gardner-Webb (6-3, 2-1), 1:30
With losses from contenders throughout the country helping to clear the way, Coastal Carolina can feel pretty safe that a 9-2 record will get it into the postseason this year. Now, the Chants just have to get there. They host Charleston Southern next week in a game that could feature ranked teams in the Big South, but getting through Gardner-Webb on the road might be even tougher. The Bulldogs lost at Charleston Southern last week, but they have a similar make-up to the Buccaneers with a strong passing game and an improving defense. Quarterback Devin Campbell (1873 yards, 13 TD/13 INT) has the ability to make things happen if he can avoid interceptions, and the defense has a more respectable resume than it did a year ago, though the numbers are still pretty poor. The Chants, however, match up well for both of the next two weeks against teams with good passing games and average defenses. Coastal Carolina leads the nation with 121.1 yards per game allowed through the air, and has recorded 11 interceptions with seven touchdowns given up. They are porous against the run, but the Bulldogs might not be able to exploit that weakness with a suspect running game. If Coastal Carolina can make a few plays against Campbell and the passing game, it should be able to capitalize on offense. Tyler Thigpen (2314 yards, 21 TD/8 INT) and Jerome Simpson (746 receiving yards, 11 TD) form a lethal combination in the passing game, and the Chants should do well against a defense with a bad overall track record against the pass. Coastal Carolina rarely blows people out, so a close game would not be a surprise. But the matchups look good here, and the Chants figure to move one win closer to looking pretty good on selection Sunday. Prediction: Coastal Carolina 34, Gardner-Webb 24
No. 13 New Hampshire (6-3, 3-3) at Rhode Island (4-5, 2-4), 12:00
Three losses in the last four games leave a New Hampshire team that started 5-0, held the No. 1 ranking for five weeks and won 34-17 at Northwestern on the brink of playoff elimination. The Wildcats have to win out on the road to make the playoffs after last week’s 28-20 loss to Massachusetts, where stars Ricky Santos and David Ball played well but the defense and running game had a tough day again. Santos (2254 yards, 21 TD/3 INT) completed 35-of-55 passes for 385 yards and two touchdowns in last week’s loss, but he’s had to carry too much of the offense with 45 or more passing attempts in each of the three defeats. Ball (67 receptions, 818 yards, 11 TD) is far and away the best wide receiver in I- AA and maybe the best overall player in the sub-classification, but that duo can’t do it alone. New Hampshire’s running game has plummeted to 3.94 yards per carry after posting one of the most productive resumes in the first month of the season, and the defense is allowing a lot of yardage and 24 ppg while only recording 15 turnovers after excelling in that area a year ago. The offense is still third in the nation with 413.9 yards per game and second with 35.4 ppg, but they have a very tough test at Maine next week to make a playoff berth a reality. The Wildcats should at least get to that point unscathed, because Rhode Island doesn’t possess the firepower to keep up in this game. The Rams average 195 rushing yards per game with an option offense, but they only record 3.7 yards per carry and score 18 ppg. The Ram defense is getting better and ranks 14th nationally against the pass, but they don’t have the ability to keep up for 60 minutes with a New Hampshire offense that is explosive and playing for its postseason life. The Wildcats will get a big test from Maine next week, but they’ll get there by knocking off the Rams. Prediction: New Hampshire 38, Rhode Island 21
Georgia Southern (3-6, 2-4) at No. 10 Furman (7-2, 5-1), 3:30
There’s no question that the first season of the Brian VanGorder era has been a huge disappointment for the faithful in Statesboro. A drop-off was expected, and no one considered the Eagles a playoff lock by any means. But last week’s 28-10 home loss to Wofford gave Georgia Southern a 2-4 home record, locked up a losing overall mark for the first time since 1996 and served as another indicator that the journey to become a dominant team with a conventional offense could take a long time. One victory is not going to make Eagle followers forget a down season, but it sure would feel sweet for the Eagles to end the playoff hopes of a rival on the road. Furman stayed alive in the playoff hunt by knocking off Elon, 24-13, last week. Fullback Jerome Felton (636 yards, 22 touchdowns) was back in the lineup in that game and quarterback Renaldo Gray is also healthy again to lead a Paladin offense that notches 175 rushing yards per game despite a rash of injuries on the offensive side of the ball. The Furman defense struggled in its losses, but overall that unit has performed well with no more than 22 points allowed in any of the seven victories. The defense should be the key in this matchup, because Georgia Southern’s offense is just not the same. The Eagles have not scored more than 21 points in any game during their current three-game losing streak, and the rushing game that was strong early has faded to averaging 179 yards per game. Quarterback Travis Clark (1574 yards, 7 TD/2 INT) has shown flashes of good play, but threw for less than 100 yards in two of the last three games. That should mean a good day for the Furman defense, which limited a good Elon passing game last week. The Paladins can go to Cedrick Gipson (767 yards, 4 TD) and Felton against a suspect Eagle rushing defense, and should get the win with a playoff spot on the line. Look for Georgia Southern to provide a solid effort and keep it close in a rivalry game, but Furman will have too much in the end and probably get a playoff berth with a victory. Prediction: Furman 21, Georgia Southern 13
No. 19 Maine (6-3, 5-1) at No. 3 Massachusetts (8-1, 6-0), 12:00
I’ll be in Amherst this weekend, where the home team tries to move one step closer to a playoff seed and the Atlantic 10 automatic bid, while the visitors just try to hang on in the race for one more week. Maine maintained playoff prospects by throttling Northeastern, 30-3, on the strength of a punishing defense that got pressure all day and held the Huskies to 36 total rushing yards. Those numbers are in line with what the Black Bears have done all season, with a rushing defense that ranks third nationally with 62.7 yards per game and 1.97 yards per carry allowed. Maine’s 34 sacks also place fourth in the country, with Matt King leading the way with 9.5 sacks of his own. After giving up 34 points in the season opener at Youngstown State, the Black Bear defense has not allowed more than 17 points to any I-AA opponent, and has limited the last five opponents to 10 points or less. They have the ability to shut down any I-AA offense, but might have trouble matching the gaudy numbers against the balanced Minutemen. Running back Steve Baylark (1,133 yards, 10 TD) is going out with his best season as a senior and has five 100-yard efforts to his credit, while quarterback Liam Coen (1,855 yards, 17 TD/4 INT) has served as a perfect complement by completing 69 percent of his passes and leading the nation in pass efficiency. The offense will get its biggest test of the season, but an offense that scores 31.8 ppg should be able to find the endzone at least a couple times even against a great defense.
That will put some pressure on the Maine offense, which might have an even tougher matchup against the Massachusetts defense. The Minutemen have not dominated as thoroughly as the Black Bears on the defensive side of the ball, but a unit that allows only 104.4 rushing yards per game and ranks second nationally with 11 ppg surrendered doesn’t have any real holes. Jason Hatchell and James Ihedigbo lead a unit that is strong in every area, and will provide a major challenge for a Maine offense that hasn’t consistently produced. The Black Bears are averaging 180.3 yards per game on the ground, but the passing game hasn’t performed consistently and they are scoring a shade over 21 ppg. Quarterback Ron Whitcomb (1,013 yards, 8 TD/6 INT) does come off his best game of the season with a 17-of-21 effort for 281 yards and two touchdowns against Northeastern, and the Black Bears found more production in the passing game by putting running back Arel Gordon (788 yards, 5 TD) back into the receiving game, where he caught seven passes for 152 yards and two scores. If they can get that type of production from the passing game, the Black Bears can move the ball and put enough points on the board to pull off the upset in a close, low- scoring type of game. That’s possible, but I’m not going to take one game of production over a Massachusetts team that has played well on both sides of the ball all season. Maine stays in the game with its defense, but Massachusetts has too much firepower to be held down all game and will get the win to knock the Black Bears out of the playoff picture. Prediction: Massachusetts 20, Maine 10
No. 12 Northern Iowa (6-3, 4-1) at No. 14 Southern Illinois (6-3, 3-3), 4:00
The rankings might not make this look like the most important game of the week, but the playoff permutations are more important here than any game in the country. Coming into this week, Youngstown State and Illinois State look good for playoff berths out of the Gateway Conference, but both UNI and Southern Illinois are sitting on the bubble with tough work to do. But the thing is, this game isn’t necessarily just a winner is in, loser is out situation. If the Salukis get the victory, they can probably punch their playoff ticket, as long as they beat Southern Utah in the season finale at home. But if that happens, UNI would still win a tie for the conference automatic bid if Youngstown State loses this week and the Panthers knock off Illinois State in the season finale. A Southern Illinois win seems to put either three or four Gateway teams in the playoffs, but a UNI victory likely means the league will earn two or three spots. The Salukis would be out with a loss, and the Panthers would still have to beat Illinois State to win the league’s automatic bid and give the conference a third spot. With the whole country watching, these teams could be headed for another classic in their series that has heated up in the past three years. UNI holds a 2-1 record in the matchups since 2003, but every game has been decided by four points or loss and the total score is at an even 104-104.
That score means a lot of offense in the recent years, with finals of 43-40 (UNI), 40-36 (SIU), and 25-24 (UNI) displaying the ability of both offenses to move the ball. That should be true again, with UNI scoring 31.1 ppg and Southern Illinois doing them a few points better at 33.7 ppg. The Panthers already had to keep their hopes in good shape by rallying for a 31-20 win over Western Kentucky last week, and should be able to produce against a Southern Illinois defense that gave up 249 rushing yards to Youngstown State’s Marcus Mason on Saturday. The Salukis had done pretty well going into that game, but will get another test from a UNI running game that averages 215.6 yards per game and 5.35 yards per carry. The Panthers also have a reliable threat when they go to the air, with quarterback Eric Sanders (1632 yards, 12 TD/4 INT) already proven in these situations and completing 69 percent of his passes. They take on a Saluki defense that has allowed 24 points or more in four of the last five games, so the Panthers should be able to put up plenty of points.
The Salukis, however, can match UNI on the scoreboard. Running back Arkee Whitlock (1,191 yards, 14 TD) just put up 218 yards and three touchdowns last week against the Penguins and is capable of carrying the offense and notching a good number against a UNI defense that is tougher but has still given up a few big days. The Salukis average 230.7 yards per game on the ground, so they’ll need to stay at it and move in the rushing game against the Panthers. Southern Illinois could be in more trouble if it falls behind, since quarterback Nick Hill (1,256 yards, 9 TD/3 INT) has not been asked to win games with his arm and has only completed around 50 percent of his passes with more interceptions than touchdowns in the past three weeks. UNI has given up a lot of yards through the air, but also has more interceptions than touchdowns and can make a few big plays against Hill and the Saluki passing game. Still, the Salukis can put points up with Whitlock running for a big day, and make this a high-scoring game that comes down to the end. That makes it a toss-up, but the home team has fared well in this series and Whitlock can take over in the fourth quarter. That will be just enough for the Salukis, who move closer to the playoffs while making UNI hope for a Youngstown State loss. Prediction: Southern Illinois 31, UNI 28
Oh, and I'm Jason Wiers, Platinum Property Management
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tetoncat
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This summary just further makes me mad about people saying we have no chance if we lose to the GRIZ. There are 2 or 3 teams in this commentary that Dougherty feels can make the playoffs with 4 losses. 2 of them have 3-3 conference records. I can understand tough conferences, but no way do I buy a 50% conference won loss record being good enough to get into the playoffs. I do not care who you won or lost to in nonconference, if you cannot be top 2 or 3 teams and have a winning conference record you should stay home. New Hampshire has lost 3 of last 4 yet he says they need to win one of next two to get into the playoffs. They are ranked 12th or 13th with 3 out of 4 losses. We have won 6 in a row conference, with 3 losses and are lucky to be up to 18th. It just shows that once you are in top, it is really hard to drop to far.
Sports is not bigger than life