Hypothetical look at the last 2 spots (7-4 or weak schedule)

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:03 pm

From AGS web site
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For argument sake, let's say that we have the following situation after the games on 11/18:

AQ's - UMass, Lehigh, ASU, Hampton, Youngstown St, UT-Martin, Montana, and McNeese St

1st 6 at large teams agreed upon by the Playoff Selection Committee - JMU, UNH, Furman, Illinois St, S Illinois, and Cal Poly

Choices and records of teams being considered for the last 2 spots:
Delaware St 9-2
Charleston Southern 11-0
San Diego 10-0
Holy Cross 8-3
Monmouth 10-1
Eastern Illinois 8-4
Portland St 7-4

Assume that all other teams from AQ conferences have at least 4 losses.

Who do you think the Playoff Selection Committee would select for the last 2 spots?

Who would you select for the last 2 spots?

Cledus · Post by **Cledus** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:13 pm

Obviously, I'd like to see the Cats among the population for the last two. In I-A, so much is made of an early loss not eliminating a team from national championship game consideration it hardly seems fair to eliminate the Cats for an early season skid. After all, they've made a remarkable turn around, have beaten quality teams, and have not lost on the road.

But since they're not part of your list, I'd have to go with San Diego and Charleston Southern. I know they've played some real Barney teams but running the table is not easy at any level of competition.

In addition, recent history has shown the Utah's, Boise State's, and West Virginia's of the football world have rightfully earned their lofty bowl games after the fact.

If there's any 4-loss team that deserves to go, it's the Cats (just a wee bit 'o smack there, but not enough to move the post to the smack thread

)

MSU01 · Post by **MSU01** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:14 pm

Why is Portland State (and EIU) on that list, but not MSU? I'm not saying MSU should get an at-large at 7-4, but if PSU is on the list, why aren't we?

Eastcoastgriz · Post by **Eastcoastgriz** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 9:19 pm

Cledus wrote:Obviously, I'd like to see the Cats among the population for the last two. In I-A, so much is made of an early loss not eliminating a team from national championship game consideration it hardly seems fair to eliminate the Cats for an early season skid. After all, they've made a remarkable turn around, have beaten quality teams, and have not lost on the road.

But since they're not part of your list, I'd have to go with San Diego and Charleston Southern. I know they've played some real Barney teams but running the table is not easy at any level of competition.

In addition, recent history has shown the Utah's, Boise State's, and West Virginia's of the football world have rightfully earned their lofty bowl games after the fact.

If there's any 4-loss team that deserves to go, it's the Cats (just a wee bit 'o smack there, but not enough to move the post to the smack thread )

Sorry for not making it clear - This is not my list, but one I found on AGS.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Mon Nov 06, 2006 10:13 pm

MSU01 wrote:Why is Portland State (and EIU) on that list, but not MSU? I'm not saying MSU should get an at-large at 7-4, but if PSU is on the list, why aren't we?

EIU is on there because they would be 8-4 (they play Hawaii so they get a 12th game). 2 of their losses would be to IA teams & the other 2 to Top 10 IAA teams. But the Cats should definetely be ahead/even w/PSU in the pecking order.

grizzh8r · Post by **grizzh8r** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:22 am

Another thing - I do not see Cal Poly winning in Fargo. That makes them 7-4. Granted, their strength of schedule is good, one loss it to a 1-A, and the other two are 1 point losses to top 25 teams, but still....

CelticCat · Post by **CelticCat** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:23 am

grizzh8r wrote:Another thing - I do not see Cal Poly winning in Fargo. That makes them 7-4. Granted, their strength of schedule is good, one loss it to a 1-A, and the other two are 1 point losses to top 25 teams, but still....

They also beat a IA.

anacondagriz · Post by **anacondagriz** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 8:27 am

grizzh8r wrote:Another thing - I do not see Cal Poly winning in Fargo. That makes them 7-4. Granted, their strength of schedule is good, one loss it to a 1-A, and the other two are 1 point losses to top 25 teams, but still....

Cal Poly beat Ft. Lewis, so if they finish w/only 7 wins they can't even be considered.

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:05 pm

anacondagriz wrote:
grizzh8r wrote:Another thing - I do not see Cal Poly winning in Fargo. That makes them 7-4. Granted, their strength of schedule is good, one loss it to a 1-A, and the other two are 1 point losses to top 25 teams, but still....
Cal Poly beat Ft. Lewis, so if they finish w/only 7 wins they can't even be considered.

Good point. If NDSU beats them, Cal Poly is out of contention... which is a shame. Shame on Ellerson for such a brutal schedule.

Bleedinbluengold · Post by **Bleedinbluengold** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 12:08 pm

oooooooooooo, good point! I thought CP would more or less get an auto bid just because they would be the best team in the Great West who is eligible. I wonder if the committee would simply waive their own guideline?

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 1:43 pm

anacondagriz wrote:
grizzh8r wrote:Another thing - I do not see Cal Poly winning in Fargo. That makes them 7-4. Granted, their strength of schedule is good, one loss it to a 1-A, and the other two are 1 point losses to top 25 teams, but still....
Cal Poly beat Ft. Lewis, so if they finish w/only 7 wins they can't even be considered.

Great point. If Cal Poly loses to NDSU they should be out as they would have only 6 DIV 1 wins.

catatac · Post by **catatac** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 2:23 pm

Bleedinbluengold wrote:oooooooooooo, good point! I thought CP would more or less get an auto bid just because they would be the best team in the Great West who is eligible. I wonder if the committee would simply waive their own guideline?

No - I don't believe they would ever do that - cause other eligible teams would have a $hit-fit. Poly would be out of luck - even though another, less deserving team would get in ahead of them... and it's due toe scheduling.

crazycat · Post by **crazycat** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 7:08 pm

It's an absolute abomination that the BSC came out to back PSU three weeks prior to the season's end when MSU may have the same record and is clearly the team to take if it comes down to taking one or the other.

Point A: MSU beat PSU decidedly 14-0. They could've played four more quarters and I don't think PSU would've scored.
Point B: If MSU is 7-4 that would include a loss to Montana...AT Montana, not at home. And frankly, PSU was lucky to be in that game.
Point C: MSU's three other losses were all flukes (yes, it was a fluke Davis beat us that bad, but, yes we got beat). So that leaves two fluke losses to a D2 and EWU, which had more breaks against us than Evil Kneivel had when he jumped the Caeser's Palace fountain. The two PSU losses were predictable poundings. That's a wash in my book.

Platinumcat · Post by **Platinumcat** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 10:56 pm

I think one of the reasons PSU is constantly being kicked around as a possible at large is due to their GPI rating.

That being said, I would agree with the comment that hopefully our end of season performance and head to head win would outdistance us vs PSU in the committee's eyes.

GrizinWashington · Post by **GrizinWashington** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:21 pm

It's a tough call, but PSU is going to get a lot of consideration because their losses have been to two DI-As and two top 20 DI-AA teams. In addition, they have played an all division one schedule, and the selection rules clearly state that the committee can give preference to teams that play an all DI schedule. Couple that with the fact that msu not only played a DII but lost to them, got beat b y 45 at home, lost to a bad EWU team, and lost 3 in a row at home, and I think that's why the nod is in PSU's direction.

GOKATS · Post by **GOKATS** » Tue Nov 07, 2006 11:40 pm

GrizinWashington wrote:It's a tough call, but PSU is going to get a lot of consideration because their losses have been to two DI-As and two top 20 DI-AA teams. In addition, they have played an all division one schedule, and the selection rules clearly state that the committee can give preference to teams that play an all DI schedule. Couple that with the fact that msu not only played a DII but lost to them, got beat b y 45 at home, lost to a bad EWU team, and lost 3 in a row at home, and I think that's why the nod is in PSU's direction.

It'll be a moot point after 11/18. 'Cats will have the auto-bid & the griz will get an at large bid. PSU isn't in the equation.

JMHO, but damn I think I'm right on this one!!

CARDIAC_CATS · Post by **CARDIAC_CATS** » Thu Nov 09, 2006 10:16 am

GOKATS wrote:
GrizinWashington wrote:It's a tough call, but PSU is going to get a lot of consideration because their losses have been to two DI-As and two top 20 DI-AA teams. In addition, they have played an all division one schedule, and the selection rules clearly state that the committee can give preference to teams that play an all DI schedule. Couple that with the fact that msu not only played a DII but lost to them, got beat b y 45 at home, lost to a bad EWU team, and lost 3 in a row at home, and I think that's why the nod is in PSU's direction.
It'll be a moot point after 11/18. 'Cats will have the auto-bid & the griz will get an at large bid. PSU isn't in the equation.

JMHO, but damn I think I'm right on this one!!

Yep, we just need to flat out win this game next week. We are and have been in the playoffs the last 6 weeks so this week should be no different. We lose we go home. Backs are against the wall and we better come out clawing/scratching for every inch in this game. We have nothing to lose and should be able to lay it on the line.