Football Game Simulator

[luckyirishguy25]

http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com/i ... m_oneonone

I ran our schedule through it and here's what it predicted:
Idaho 38 Montana St. 31 L
Montana St. 34 Bryant 25 W
Montana St. 34 North Dakota 26 W
Montana St. 35 Sacramento St. 27 W
Montana St. 35 Northern Arizona 32 W
Montana St. 30 Weber St. 25 W
Eastern Wash. 39 Montana St. 35 L
Southern Utah 31 Montana St. 25 L
Montana St. 38 UC Davis 26 W
Montana 36 Montana St. 27 L
*100 games played per match up, no DII games.

I think it looks pretty reasonable, although I think we have a pretty good shot at knocking off Idaho since they will have nothing to study on us at all. Assuming that's how it plays out I think I would be pretty happy with the season, But at 6-4 DI record will not get us into the playoffs.

[Montanabob]

I see 9-2 very doable this year.
Starting with a big win in the Kitty Dome.

[JDoub]

I ran UMs with the 100 games played scenario :

St Francis 33-18 W 91%
No. Iowa 31-20 L 85%
Cal Poly 31-30 W 55%
SUU 27-22 W 67%
MVSU 51-8 W 100%
Sac St 35-16 W 97%
NAU 32-28 W 68%
EWU 35-32 L 60%
ISU 40-15 W 98%
UNC 37-21 W 97%
MSU 36-26 W 85%

Looks like this fits griz expectations 9-2 and 7-1 -- I'm still a bit of a doubter that stitt's offense will be consistent and their D doesn't decline. UNI will be a big indicator of where they are this season. I think they'll have their hands full with Cal Poly, NAU, EWU, MSU, and I don't think UNC will be a gimme (believe it or not).

[JDoub]

Having fun with the simulator -- looking at Big Sky title contenders

UND
Stony Brook 19-16 L 57%
Bowling Green 46-19 L 100%
South Dakota 24-22 W 52%
Montana State 33-26 L 77%
Cal Poly 32-26 L 68%
Sac State 25-23 W 62%
SUU 23-18 L 73%
Idaho State 32-23 W 79%
Weber St 24-20 W 67%
UNC 29-26 W 64%
NAU 27-27 T 51%

Interesting there's a predicted tie -- I assume OT. To me, 5-6-1 (6-6 or 5-7) actually seems reasonable for UND. College Football Preview predicted UND to win the Big Sky. They have the easiest schedule in the conference and these predictions are mostly in the 50-60's percent confidence interval, so more likelyhood that anything could happen for them in terms of win-loss record.

[JDoub]

Portland State

CWU W -- the web simulator doesn't allow DII vs DI matchups
San Jose St 34-20 L 93%
Washington 40-10 L 100%
SUU 26-22 L 68%
Idaho St 42-18 W 100%
Weber St 25-20 W 69%
Cal Poly 32-30 W 54%
UNC 37-22 W 92%
UCDavis W? no Davis in his database!
Sac State 31-21 W 86%
EWU 35-35 T 52%EWU

PSU prediction: 7-4 and 6-2

[JDoub]

NAU

Arizona State 46-14 L 100%
Western Ill. 31-27 L 69%
NM Highlands W 100%
EWU 38-32 L 71%
UNC 35-28 W 75%
MSU 34-32 L 52%
ISU 39-21 W 99%
UM 34-24 L 82%
Weber St 28-26 W 57%
UND 28-26 W 57%
SUU 26-24 L 62%

5-6 and 4-4

[JDoub]

EWU

Wazzu 47-23 L 100%
NDSU 41-20 L 100%
UNI 34-28 L 74%
NAU 38-33 W 70%
UCD W?
UNC 47-27 W 96%
MSU 39-35 W 69%
UM 34-33 W 54%
Cal Poly 38-37 W 57%
ISU 47-22 W 100%
PSU 36-34 W 60%

8-3 and 8-0. Interesting. I see the predictions on the simulator change slightly depending on when they're run.

[JDoub]

Misc. matchups:

NDSU at UNI - bizon win 23-17 at 76%
NDSU at Iowa - Iowa wins 25-16 at 83%

North Texas at MSU - Bobcats win 37-29 at 77%

Portland State at North Texas 2015 -- PSU wins 33-22 at 88% : flashback : actual 66-7 PSU wins
Portland State at Wazzu 2015 -- Wazzu wins 39-21 at 98% : flashback : actual PSU wins 24-17

UM at Alabama -- Tide rolls 46-8 at 100%

NDSU at Alabama - Tide wins 30-10 at 100%